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BIMINI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. (BMNM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered a sharp rebound: net income rose to $1.82M ($0.18 per share) vs $0.03 in Q3 2024 and a loss in Q2 2025, driven by stronger advisory revenue, improved portfolio returns, and lower funding costs .
  • Advisory services benefited from Orchid Island’s equity growth and capital raising; advisory revenue rose 35% YoY and 17% QoQ, while book value per share increased to $0.92 from $0.74 in Q2 2025, a key positive for equity value perception .
  • Operating backdrop improved: rates were range-bound to slightly lower, implied rate vol fell, mortgage spreads modestly tightened, and the Fed cut rates twice (Sep/Oct), creating a favorable environment for levered Agency RMBS and for capital raising at Orchid .
  • No formal guidance provided; management expects continued benefit from favorable conditions but noted uncertainty due to a U.S. government shutdown limiting economic data and possibly delaying further Fed action .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Advisory momentum: advisory services revenue grew 35% YoY and 17% QoQ, supported by Orchid’s equity rising from $912M to $1.1B and $152.3M new equity raised in Q3; CEO: “a very favorable environment for levered Agency RMBS investors” .
  • Spread/portfolio performance: combined portfolio ROIC was ~8.4% in Q3 (PT MBS ~10.2%); average economic spread expanded to 1.63% vs 0.05% in Q3 2024, reflecting better asset/liability dynamics .
  • Book value and liquidity: BVPS increased to $0.92 (from $0.74 in Q2), and liquidity improved to ~$9.7M; repo rate declined to 4.36% from 4.49% in Q2 .

What Went Wrong

  • Expense growth: operating expenses rose 13% YoY in Q3 (to $3.0M) and 5% QoQ, partially offsetting revenue gains .
  • Elevated prepayments: CPR accelerated to 16.8% in Q3 vs 9.9% in Q2 and 6.3% in Q3 2024, a headwind for premium amortization and reinvestment at comparable yields .
  • Visibility risk: management cited a federal government shutdown limiting macro data and potentially delaying additional Fed moves, constraining forward visibility despite positive sector conditions .

Financial Results

Summary P&L (company-defined)

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Advisory Services Revenue ($)$3,300,512 $3,167,055 $4,457,711
Interest & Dividend Income ($)$1,690,252 $1,492,191 $1,739,397
Interest Expense ($)$(1,980,863) $(1,731,415) $(1,701,510)
Net Revenues ($)$3,009,901 $2,897,130 $4,495,598
Other (Expense) Income ($)$420,726 $(280,003) $669,417
Expenses ($)$2,627,343 $2,782,576 $2,971,686
Net Income ($)$256,225 $(273,845) $1,822,743
Diluted EPS ($)$0.03 $(0.03) $0.18

“Revenue” per S&P convention (Net Revenues + Other Income)

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($)$3,430,627 $2,617,127 $5,165,015*
NotesNet revenues + other income Net revenues + other income S&P Global “Revenue” actual for Q3 2025*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Spreads and Margin KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Avg Yield on MBS (%)5.80 5.54 5.79
Avg Cost of Funds (%)5.61 4.39 4.59
Avg Economic Cost of Funds (%)5.75 3.97 4.16
Avg Interest Rate Spread (%)0.19 1.15 1.20
Avg Economic Spread (%)0.05 1.57 1.63

Portfolio Returns, Prepayments, and Balance Sheet

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
PT MBS ROIC (%)—(4.1) 10.2
Structured MBS ROIC (%)—1.9 0.1
Total Portfolio ROIC (%)—(2.9) 8.4
CPR – Total (%)6.3 9.9 16.8
Repo Outstanding ($)—$101.7M $100.0M
Net Wtd Avg Repo Rate (%)—4.49 4.36
Liquidity ($)—~$5.7M ~$9.7M
Book Value/Share ($)—$0.74 $0.92

Q3 2025 Segment Snapshot

SegmentQ3 2025 Revenue/DetailQ3 2025 Net Income
Advisory Services$4.5M; comprised of $3.3M mgmt fees, $0.9M overhead reimbursement, $0.3M repo/clearing/admin $2.4M
Investment PortfolioNet interest income up ~84% YoY; PT MBS ROIC ~10.2% $0.3M
ConsolidatedNet revenues $4.50M; Other income $0.67M $1.82M; EPS $0.18

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Guidance—None providedNone provided; management cites favorable environment but macro visibility limited by government shutdownMaintained no formal guidance

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Macro, rates, volQ1: Range-bound rates/low vol; supportive for Agency RMBS; tariffs could alter curve . Q2: Market turmoil from reciprocal tariffs; later calmer, supportive if volatility stays low .Rates range-bound/slightly lower; implied vol continued to decline; Fed cuts in Sep/Oct .Improving backdrop; policy supportive .
RMBS spreads/sectorQ1: Supportive conditions; Orchid raised $205.4M . Q2: Sector-wide losses but later favorable; Orchid raised $139.4M .Spreads tightened modestly; conducive to capital raising; Orchid raised $152.3M .Strengthening; access to capital robust .
Tariffs/policyQ1: New tariffs could impact economy/inflation . Q2: Tariffs drove turmoil and sector losses .Focus shifted to government shutdown; no new tariff impacts highlighted .Tariff risk faded; data blackout risk rose .
Orchid performanceQ1 NI $17.1M; 2.60% ROE (not annualized) .Q2 loss $(33.6)M; (4.66)% ROE .Q3 NI $72.1M; 6.7% ROE (not annualized) .
Funding/costsQ1 avg cost 4.49% .Q2 avg cost 4.39% .Q3 avg cost 4.59% (economic 4.16%) .
PrepaymentsQ1 CPR 7.3% .Q2 CPR 9.9% .Q3 CPR 16.8% .
Book valueQ1 BVPS $0.74 .Q2 BVPS $0.74 .Q3 BVPS $0.92 .

Management Commentary

  • “Unlike the second quarter, the third quarter of 2025 was generally free of market moving events… interest rates were generally range bound and slightly lower… implied interest rate volatility continued to decline… mortgage spreads tightened modestly… a very favorable environment for levered Agency RMBS investors.” — Robert E. Cauley, Chairman & CEO .
  • “Our advisory service revenues… continued to expand, increasing by 26% and 35%… our advisory services segment generated net income of $2.4 million, and our investment portfolio generated net income of $0.3 million for the third quarter of 2025.” .
  • “As the fourth quarter unfolds the markets are faced with a prolonged government shutdown… the Federal Reserve may withhold further monetary policy steps until there is more clarity… In the interim the Company should continue to benefit from the favorable market conditions.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was available at time of review; the company held its call on Nov 7, 2025 per the press notice, but a transcript was not posted in our document set. We will update this section if a transcript becomes available .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus coverage appears limited: no EPS or revenue consensus means or estimate counts were available for BMNM for Q3 2025; thus, no beat/miss vs consensus can be determined*.
  • S&P Global recorded Q3 2025 “Revenue” actual (company net revenues + other income) at $5.17M*, while company-reported EPS was $0.18 .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Advisory engine accelerating: Orchid’s strong Q3 (NI $72.1M; 6.7% ROE) and capital raises ($152.3M) directly boosted BMNM’s fee base; advisory revenue +35% YoY and +17% QoQ — a repeatable tailwind if Orchid continues to grow AUM/equity .
  • Portfolio normalization: Combined ROIC rebounded to ~8.4% from (2.9)% in Q2; PT MBS delivered ~10.2% ROIC as spreads modestly tightened and volatility fell .
  • Balance sheet quality improved: BVPS rose to $0.92 from $0.74; liquidity increased to ~$9.7M; repo costs eased to 4.36% — supportive for resilience and optionality .
  • Watch prepayment risk: CPR climbed to 16.8% (from 9.9% in Q2), potentially increasing premium amortization and pressuring asset yields if sustained .
  • Macro supports the setup, but data blackout risk remains: Management cites a favorable RMBS environment post two Fed cuts but notes the government shutdown clouds economic visibility and timing of further policy moves .
  • No formal guidance; trading setup: Momentum in advisory plus BV accretion and improving spreads are potential positive catalysts; monitor Orchid equity trends and sector capital markets activity for read-through .

Additional Notes

  • Other Q3 press release: Bimini announced board changes (director resignation and appointment of Ashley B. Griffith), with Griffith expected to serve on the Audit Committee .
  • Prior quarters for trend context: Q1 2025 net income $0.55M; EPS $0.06; BVPS $0.74; favorable environment . Q2 2025 was challenging given tariff-driven volatility and sector losses; BMNM posted a small loss with BVPS flat at $0.74 .