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Bowlero Corp. (BOWL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Strong finish to FY24: Q4 revenue ex-service fee rose 20.2% YoY to $282.9M with same‑store comps +6.9% and Adjusted EBITDA +29% to $83.4M as traffic initiatives and operating leverage kicked in .
  • Mixed GAAP optics: Q4 GAAP net loss was $62.2M vs. $146.2M income LY driven by higher D&A, impairment and interest; GAAP net margin −21.9% despite underlying Adj. EBITDA margin of 29.4% .
  • FY25 outlook constructive: management guided revenue to $1.22–$1.28B (+mid‑single digits to 10%+), Adj. EBITDA margin 32–34% ($390–$430M), and low‑to‑mid single‑digit same‑store comps; no pricing embedded, with leverage to mix and attachment .
  • Capital return and liquidity: $35M buybacks in Q4 (FY24 total ~22.8M shares), a $0.055 quarterly dividend, and revolver capacity raised to $335M; liquidity ~$336M at 6/30 (pro forma ~$386M) .
  • Key catalysts: FY25 guidance initiation, margin structure normalization/operating leverage, Lucky Strike brand expansion/rebranding, and successful season pass/F&B strategy supporting traffic and mix .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Traffic and comps inflected: Q4 same‑store comps +6.9% with April–June all positive; amusements outperformed and F&B revenue grew faster than bowling in summer .
    • Season passes worked: Portfolio season pass sales hit a record $11M, driving visits, arcade play, and F&B attachment; Bowlero launched a Fall pass to extend momentum .
    • Operating leverage returning: Adj. EBITDA +29% YoY to $83.4M on 20.2% revenue ex‑service fee growth; management targets ~50% flow‑through in FY25 as wage comps normalize .
    • Quote: “We expect low to mid single‑digit positive same‑store-sales comp in the upcoming year.” — Thomas Shannon, CEO .
    • Quote: “We’re not assuming any pricing this year.” — Robert Lavan, CFO .
    • Quote: “F&B revenue was up greater than bowling revenue this summer.” — Robert Lavan, CFO .
  • What Went Wrong

    • GAAP loss optics: Q4 GAAP net loss of $62.2M; factors included higher D&A, impairments, interest expense, and PBA losses during investment phase .
    • Cost headwinds: Food costs flagged as a headwind into FY25; PBA operated at a worse‑than‑expected loss in Q4 while being scaled for future monetization .
    • Reporting complexity: Legacy gross margin depressed by D&A (e.g., Lucky Strike); company will cease reporting gross margin and pivot to 4‑wall presentation from Q1 FY25 to improve clarity .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 FY24Q3 FY24Q4 FY24
Revenue excluding Service Fee ($M)$304.0 $336.4 $282.9
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$103.1 $122.8 $83.4
Same-Store Sales Comp (%)+0.2% −2.1% +6.9%
Consensus Revenue ($M)NA – S&P Global mapping unavailableNA – S&P Global mapping unavailableNA – S&P Global mapping unavailable

Note: S&P Global consensus data was unavailable via the tool for BOWL (mapping error). Estimates context detailed below.

Q4 FY24 vs Prior Year (YoY)

MetricQ4 FY23Q4 FY24
Total Revenue ($M)$239.4 $283.9
Revenue ex Service Fee ($M)$235.3 $282.9
Same Store Revenue ($M)$226.7 $242.5
Same-Store Sales Comp (%)+6.9%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$64.5 $83.4
GAAP Net Income (Loss) ($M)$146.2 $(62.2)
Net Income (Loss) Margin (%)61.1% (21.9)%

Revenue Build (Q4 FY24 and YoY context)

Revenue Build Component ($M)Q4 FY23Q4 FY24
Total Revenue (reported)$239.4 $283.9
less: Service Fee Revenue$(4.1) $(0.9)
Revenue ex Service Fee$235.3 $282.9
less: Non-Location/Closed$(7.5) $(4.9)
Total Location Revenue$227.8 $278.1
less: Acquired Revenue$(1.1) $(35.6)
Same Store Revenue$226.7 $242.5

KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights

KPI / MetricQ4 FY24
Season Pass Sales (Quarter)$11M; drove arcade and F&B attachment
Locations Added (Quarter)2 acquisitions; total locations 352 + Raging Waves at FY-end
Non-Comp Center EBITDA/Revenue~$9M EBITDA on ~$32M revenue
Raging Waves (June)$3.5M revenue; $2.0M EBITDA
Liquidity (6/30/24)~$336.1M cash + revolver capacity net of LOCs
Pro Forma Liquidity~$386M (cash $67M; revolver expanded to $335M)
Net Debt (6/30/24)~$1.085B
Bank Net Leverage2.6x
Q4 Buybacks3.0M shares for ~$35M; FY24 total 22.8M shares
Dividend$0.055 per share payable 9/6/24

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueFY25None$1.22B–$1.28B (+mid‑single digits to 10%+) New
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY25Directional: target high end of 32–34% range (commentary) 32%–34% (=$390M–$430M) Quantified range; broadly consistent
Same-Store Sales CompFY25Low‑to‑mid single digits expected in near term Low‑to‑mid single digits Maintained
Pricing AssumptionsFY25Not specifiedNo pricing assumed New disclosure
CapExFY25Not specified~$154M: Growth $50M; New Build $45M; Maintenance $44M; Rebrand $15M New; down vs FY24 actual $193M
Revolver CapacityCurrent$285M at 6/30/24 $335M post 8/23/24 Raised
DividendOngoingInitiated at $0.055 in FY24 $0.055 declared 8/5, payable 9/6 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 FY24 (Dec qtr)Q3 FY24 (Mar qtr)Q4 FY24 (Jun qtr)Trend
Food & Beverage upliftPlanning menu upgrades; dynamic pricing enablement; inventory system rollout Lucky Strike Miami shows >$3.40 F&B per $1 bowling; menu revamps underway New retail F&B menus rolling across all locations; catering revamp for top 75 Accelerating
AmusementsMaterial whitespace; arcades $100M+ revenue base Investment depressed Q3 profit by ~$5M to improve experience Amusements contribution outperformed business in Q4 Improving post-investment
Season PassReintroducing Summer Season Pass $1.5M presales early; target $10–$15M; traffic flywheel Record $11M pass sales; Fall pass launched; strong attachment Strong traction
PBA & MediaExpanded broadcast hours; brand halo Higher stops/TV; PBA loss ~$2M in Q3 as investment Continued investment; lever for awareness; EBITDA headwind moderating Strategic investment continues
Pricing/Dynamic Website2% retail price lift tested; dynamic pricing planned CAC falling; website to cut CAC; targeted marketing by center No FY25 pricing assumed; mix/attachment to drive ARPU Mix over price
Lucky Strike & RebrandingAcquisition outperformed; brand awareness > Bowlero LS annualized EBITDA >$20M potential; convert Bowlero to Lucky Strike over time New LS openings (Beverly Hills, Denver, etc.); $15M FY25 rebrand capex Broadening
New Builds Pipeline2 new builds opened; >12 in pipeline 4 under construction; larger AUV vs acquisitions 4 new centers opening Sep–Nov; pipeline remains strong Consistent
M&A/AdjacenciesDry powder; TAM beyond bowling Acquired Raging Waves; Mavrix/Octane performance Raging Waves: June $3.5M rev/$2M EBITDA; double-digit revenue growth; strong returns Broader LBE optionality
Cost/LeveragePayroll comps roll off post Mar-23 raises Q3 costs elevated (PBA, amusements); leverage to positive comps Target ~50% flow-through in FY25; procurement focus; food cost headwinds Leverage returning
Reporting shiftWill stop reporting gross margin; move to 4‑wall starting Q1 FY25 Clarity improving

Management Commentary

  • “We expect to achieve operating leverage around 50% in FY ’25, as we have comped the March 2023 manager wage increases and onetime COVID costs.” — Robert Lavan, CFO .
  • “Season Pass sales across our portfolio hit a record $11 million and helped drive consumer traffic.” — Thomas Shannon, CEO .
  • “We’re not assuming any pricing this year.” — Robert Lavan, CFO (re: FY25 SSS mix/attachment) .
  • “F&B revenue was up greater than bowling revenue this summer… the upside is significant.” — Robert Lavan, CFO .
  • “We are currently under construction on 4 new centers… These powerhouse locations will open between September and November of this year.” — Thomas Shannon, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • FY25 comps cadence: Expect positive comps throughout FY25; 3Q (Jan–Mar) likely strongest given calendar/weather compares; no pricing assumed, leverage via events/F&B/online .
  • Mix drivers over price: Events carry 20–50% higher per‑capita than retail; online growth +30–40% boosts ticket and wallet share; procurement and systems to offset inflation .
  • Capital deployment: Guidance excludes M&A; revolver expanded to $335M; active pipeline across bowling and broader LBE; M&A could push to high end of guide .
  • Reporting clarity: Gross margin obfuscated by D&A; switching to 4‑wall view starting Q1 FY25 for transparency .
  • Lucky Strike brand strategy: Flagship Beverly Hills opening; rebrand capex ($15M) to lean into higher‑AUV LS brand .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) could not be retrieved because the system lacked a CIQ mapping for BOWL, so consensus revenue/EPS/EBITDA for Q4 FY24 and FY25 are unavailable via our tool. As a result, “vs. estimates” cells are marked NA. We will update if/when S&P Global mapping is available (tool error noted).
  • Management’s FY25 guidance: Revenue $1.22–$1.28B; Adj. EBITDA margin 32–34% (=$390–$430M); low‑to‑mid single‑digit SSS comps; no pricing assumed .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Positive inflection: Traffic recovered with Q4 same‑store +6.9% and strong total growth ex‑service fees; early FY25 periods are positive with expanding operating margins, supporting the FY25 guide .
  • Margin leverage ahead: Wage comps roll off and revenue mix (events/F&B/online) should support the 32–34% Adj. EBITDA margin guide; food costs a watch item but procurement/systems are offsets .
  • Brand upgrade optionality: Expanding Lucky Strike and rebranding high‑profile Bowlero centers can lift AUV and F&B attach; $15M FY25 rebrand capex targeted .
  • Capital deployment: Healthy liquidity and increased revolver capacity enable continued buybacks/dividends and opportunistic M&A/new builds with higher unit economics .
  • LBE adjacency proof points: Raging Waves posted double‑digit revenue growth and attractive June EBITDA; seasonal hedge and scalable playbook support LBE optionality beyond bowling .
  • Reporting transparency: Transition to 4‑wall view from Q1 FY25 should simplify analysis and highlight unit economics versus legacy GAAP gross margin distortions .
  • Near‑term trading setup: Results/guidance should refocus narrative on traffic momentum, operating leverage, and cash returns; a lack of consensus datapoints (temporarily) limits beat/miss framing, but internal guide appears achievable with no pricing embedded .

Additional Relevant Disclosures (Q4 window)

  • Dividend: $0.055 per share declared 8/5/24, payable 9/6/24 to holders of record 8/23/24 .
  • Capital returns: Q4 buybacks of 3.0M shares for ~$35M; FY24 repurchases ~22.8M shares; $164M remaining authorization at 6/30/24 .
  • Liquidity and leverage: Pro forma liquidity ~$386M with revolver increased to $335M; bank net leverage 2.6x .

Citations:
Quarter and fiscal press release, GAAP/non‑GAAP reconciliations, guidance, capital return, liquidity .
Q4 call prepared remarks and Q&A: comps, leverage, mix, capex, pricing assumption, non-comp center contribution, Raging Waves, PBA/amusements, reporting change .
Dividend 8‑K and press release .
Prior quarters (for trend): Q3 metrics/initiatives ; Q2 metrics/initiatives .