BC
Bowlero Corp. (BOWL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Strong finish to FY24: Q4 revenue ex-service fee rose 20.2% YoY to $282.9M with same‑store comps +6.9% and Adjusted EBITDA +29% to $83.4M as traffic initiatives and operating leverage kicked in .
- Mixed GAAP optics: Q4 GAAP net loss was $62.2M vs. $146.2M income LY driven by higher D&A, impairment and interest; GAAP net margin −21.9% despite underlying Adj. EBITDA margin of 29.4% .
- FY25 outlook constructive: management guided revenue to $1.22–$1.28B (+mid‑single digits to 10%+), Adj. EBITDA margin 32–34% ($390–$430M), and low‑to‑mid single‑digit same‑store comps; no pricing embedded, with leverage to mix and attachment .
- Capital return and liquidity: $35M buybacks in Q4 (FY24 total ~22.8M shares), a $0.055 quarterly dividend, and revolver capacity raised to $335M; liquidity ~$336M at 6/30 (pro forma ~$386M) .
- Key catalysts: FY25 guidance initiation, margin structure normalization/operating leverage, Lucky Strike brand expansion/rebranding, and successful season pass/F&B strategy supporting traffic and mix .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Traffic and comps inflected: Q4 same‑store comps +6.9% with April–June all positive; amusements outperformed and F&B revenue grew faster than bowling in summer .
- Season passes worked: Portfolio season pass sales hit a record $11M, driving visits, arcade play, and F&B attachment; Bowlero launched a Fall pass to extend momentum .
- Operating leverage returning: Adj. EBITDA +29% YoY to $83.4M on 20.2% revenue ex‑service fee growth; management targets ~50% flow‑through in FY25 as wage comps normalize .
- Quote: “We expect low to mid single‑digit positive same‑store-sales comp in the upcoming year.” — Thomas Shannon, CEO .
- Quote: “We’re not assuming any pricing this year.” — Robert Lavan, CFO .
- Quote: “F&B revenue was up greater than bowling revenue this summer.” — Robert Lavan, CFO .
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What Went Wrong
- GAAP loss optics: Q4 GAAP net loss of $62.2M; factors included higher D&A, impairments, interest expense, and PBA losses during investment phase .
- Cost headwinds: Food costs flagged as a headwind into FY25; PBA operated at a worse‑than‑expected loss in Q4 while being scaled for future monetization .
- Reporting complexity: Legacy gross margin depressed by D&A (e.g., Lucky Strike); company will cease reporting gross margin and pivot to 4‑wall presentation from Q1 FY25 to improve clarity .
Financial Results
Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)
Note: S&P Global consensus data was unavailable via the tool for BOWL (mapping error). Estimates context detailed below.
Q4 FY24 vs Prior Year (YoY)
Revenue Build (Q4 FY24 and YoY context)
KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We expect to achieve operating leverage around 50% in FY ’25, as we have comped the March 2023 manager wage increases and onetime COVID costs.” — Robert Lavan, CFO .
- “Season Pass sales across our portfolio hit a record $11 million and helped drive consumer traffic.” — Thomas Shannon, CEO .
- “We’re not assuming any pricing this year.” — Robert Lavan, CFO (re: FY25 SSS mix/attachment) .
- “F&B revenue was up greater than bowling revenue this summer… the upside is significant.” — Robert Lavan, CFO .
- “We are currently under construction on 4 new centers… These powerhouse locations will open between September and November of this year.” — Thomas Shannon, CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- FY25 comps cadence: Expect positive comps throughout FY25; 3Q (Jan–Mar) likely strongest given calendar/weather compares; no pricing assumed, leverage via events/F&B/online .
- Mix drivers over price: Events carry 20–50% higher per‑capita than retail; online growth +30–40% boosts ticket and wallet share; procurement and systems to offset inflation .
- Capital deployment: Guidance excludes M&A; revolver expanded to $335M; active pipeline across bowling and broader LBE; M&A could push to high end of guide .
- Reporting clarity: Gross margin obfuscated by D&A; switching to 4‑wall view starting Q1 FY25 for transparency .
- Lucky Strike brand strategy: Flagship Beverly Hills opening; rebrand capex ($15M) to lean into higher‑AUV LS brand .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) could not be retrieved because the system lacked a CIQ mapping for BOWL, so consensus revenue/EPS/EBITDA for Q4 FY24 and FY25 are unavailable via our tool. As a result, “vs. estimates” cells are marked NA. We will update if/when S&P Global mapping is available (tool error noted).
- Management’s FY25 guidance: Revenue $1.22–$1.28B; Adj. EBITDA margin 32–34% (=$390–$430M); low‑to‑mid single‑digit SSS comps; no pricing assumed .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Positive inflection: Traffic recovered with Q4 same‑store +6.9% and strong total growth ex‑service fees; early FY25 periods are positive with expanding operating margins, supporting the FY25 guide .
- Margin leverage ahead: Wage comps roll off and revenue mix (events/F&B/online) should support the 32–34% Adj. EBITDA margin guide; food costs a watch item but procurement/systems are offsets .
- Brand upgrade optionality: Expanding Lucky Strike and rebranding high‑profile Bowlero centers can lift AUV and F&B attach; $15M FY25 rebrand capex targeted .
- Capital deployment: Healthy liquidity and increased revolver capacity enable continued buybacks/dividends and opportunistic M&A/new builds with higher unit economics .
- LBE adjacency proof points: Raging Waves posted double‑digit revenue growth and attractive June EBITDA; seasonal hedge and scalable playbook support LBE optionality beyond bowling .
- Reporting transparency: Transition to 4‑wall view from Q1 FY25 should simplify analysis and highlight unit economics versus legacy GAAP gross margin distortions .
- Near‑term trading setup: Results/guidance should refocus narrative on traffic momentum, operating leverage, and cash returns; a lack of consensus datapoints (temporarily) limits beat/miss framing, but internal guide appears achievable with no pricing embedded .
Additional Relevant Disclosures (Q4 window)
- Dividend: $0.055 per share declared 8/5/24, payable 9/6/24 to holders of record 8/23/24 .
- Capital returns: Q4 buybacks of 3.0M shares for ~$35M; FY24 repurchases ~22.8M shares; $164M remaining authorization at 6/30/24 .
- Liquidity and leverage: Pro forma liquidity ~$386M with revolver increased to $335M; bank net leverage 2.6x .
Citations:
Quarter and fiscal press release, GAAP/non‑GAAP reconciliations, guidance, capital return, liquidity .
Q4 call prepared remarks and Q&A: comps, leverage, mix, capex, pricing assumption, non-comp center contribution, Raging Waves, PBA/amusements, reporting change .
Dividend 8‑K and press release .
Prior quarters (for trend): Q3 metrics/initiatives ; Q2 metrics/initiatives .