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Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BRP)·Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2024 delivered broad-based growth and margin expansion: Revenue $380.4M (+15% YoY), Organic Revenue Growth 16%, Adjusted EBITDA $101.7M (+29% YoY) with margin 27% (+280 bps) .
  • GAAP diluted EPS was $0.33; Adjusted diluted EPS $0.56 (+33% YoY), supported by cost rationalization and operational scale .
  • Management kept FY 2024 guidance unchanged; commentary flagged margin accretion weighted to Q1 and Q4, and continued deleveraging with net leverage “less than 4.5x” exiting Q1 and sub-4x targeted by year end .
  • Corporate catalysts: rebrand to The Baldwin Group and Nasdaq ticker change to BWIN effective May 20, 2024; strategic sale of Connected Risk Solutions ($59M cash) to streamline portfolio and support margin/organic growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong top-line and organic growth: Total revenue $380.4M (+15% YoY) and organic revenue growth 16% . “We are thrilled with our start to 2024…double-digit organic growth and significantly expanded…margin, profitability and free cash flow generation” — CEO Trevor Baldwin .
  • Material margin expansion and FCF: Adjusted EBITDA $101.7M (+29% YoY), margin 27% (+280 bps YoY); free cash flow $53.3M (+51% YoY) .
  • Portfolio and technology positioning: Announced rebrand and ticker change; Juniper Re entered a multi-year flood/wildfire data collaboration with ICEYE to enhance event response analytics (carrier clients gain near real-time insights) .

What Went Wrong

  • Profit commission timing/mix headwinds: CFO noted profit commissions within UCTS were down due to umbrella product changes and renter portfolio timing effects, impacting segment margins intra-quarter .
  • Rate/exposure normalization: Retail rate/exposure contribution to organic growth was ~4.5% vs a 10% tailwind in Q1 last year; tailwinds moderating reduce easy comps and require continued net new client growth .
  • Cash earnout obligations and liquidity uses: Q1 paid ~$54M cash earnouts; through April paid ~$89M cash earnouts and ~$21M bonuses, with remaining undiscounted earnout obligations ~ $222M — manageable but a use of cash that investors track alongside deleveraging .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$306.3 $284.6 $380.4
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.29) $(0.56) $0.33
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.29 $0.14 $0.56
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$64.0 $45.6 $101.7
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)21% 16% 27%
Organic Revenue Growth (%)19% 15% 16%

Segment organic growth (call commentary):

SegmentQ1 2024 Organic Revenue Growth (%)
IS11%
UCTS21%
MIS24%

KPIs and cash metrics:

KPIQ1 2024
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$53.3
Net cash provided by operating activities ($USD Millions)$2.9
Cash and equivalents ($USD Millions)$112.1
Restricted cash ($USD Millions)$122.2
Borrowing capacity (Revolver) ($USD Millions)$266.0

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
FY 2024 guidance (overall)FY 2024Not disclosed in reviewed filingsUnchanged per management commentaryMaintained
Margin accretion timingFY 2024 (intra-year)Not disclosedWeighted to Q1 and Q4Maintained narrative

Note: The Q1 8‑K and press release did not include specific numeric ranges for FY 2024 guidance, and reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP guidance to GAAP was stated as not reasonably practicable .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2023)Previous Mentions (Q4 2023)Current Period (Q1 2024)Trend
Margin expansion+480 bps YoY margin accretion, leverage down to 4.8x, focus on FCF Emphasis on expense rationalization; set up for accelerating margins/FCF in 2024 27% adj. EBITDA margin (+280 bps YoY); margin accretion weighted to Q1/Q4Improving; seasonally weighted
Rate/exposure dynamicsTailwinds aided growth in 2023 Entering 2024 with normalization commentary Retail rate/exposure ~4.5% of organic growth; down vs Q1 2023 tailwind Normalizing
Profit commissions (UCTS)Strong UCTS contribution Mixed contingents expected in 2024 UCTS profit commissions down due to product mix/timing; expected Q4 upliftVariable intra-year
M&A/portfolio actionsOngoing partnershipsFocus on selective, episodic M&ASold Connected Risk Solutions (wholesale) for ~$59M; M&A selective/cultural fitStreamlining; selective
Technology/analyticsBuilding platform capabilitiesIntegration largely completeICEYE–Juniper Re data collaboration for near real-time event insightsEnhancing analytics stack
Leverage/earnoutsLeverage 4.8x (Q3) Balance sheet strengthening into 2024 Net leverage <4.5x; sub-4x targeted; ~$222M remaining earnouts; significant cash earnout paymentsDeleveraging progressing

Management Commentary

  • “We are thrilled with our start to 2024, as we delivered another quarter of strong, double-digit organic growth and significantly expanded our adjusted EBITDA margin, profitability and free cash flow generation…” — Trevor Baldwin, CEO .
  • “We expect the margin accretion implied in our full‑year guidance to be more heavily weighted towards the first and fourth quarters.” — Brad Hale, CFO .
  • “Our first‑quarter 2024 results represented one of the most complete performances we’ve seen across the business since going public…” — Trevor Baldwin (prepared remarks) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Rate/exposure contribution: Retail rate/exposure was ~4.5% of organic growth (vs a 10% tailwind last year), indicating normalized pricing backdrop and reliance on net new client wins .
  • UCTS contingents and margins: Profit commissions in UCTS were down due to umbrella product changes and renter portfolio timing; management expects stronger margin contribution later in the year, especially Q4 .
  • Colleague earnout incentives: New line item reflects geography shift of earnout allocations to non‑selling shareholders; net‑income neutral but recognized in compensation expense .
  • Deleveraging path: Ended Q1 at <4.5x net leverage; plan to be <4.0x by YE 2024 despite substantial earnout and bonus cash payments .
  • Portfolio actions: Connected Risk Solutions sale ($59M) expected to be neutral to 2024 adjusted EPS and accretive to organic growth and margins .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus data for Q1 2024 was unavailable via our SPGI tool at the time of analysis; we anchor estimate comparisons on SPGI when accessible and note unavailability here.
  • Third‑party report (Yahoo/Insider Monkey) indicated Q1 EPS expectations of ~$0.51 vs reported GAAP diluted EPS $0.33, implying an EPS miss on that reference set; use with caution as it is not SPGI consensus .
MetricActual Q1 2024SPGI ConsensusSurprise
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.33 Unavailable (SPGI)N/A
Revenue ($USD Millions)$380.4 Unavailable (SPGI)N/A

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strong execution: Double‑digit organic growth and substantial margin expansion underpin improved earnings quality and FCF; cost actions from 2023 continue to flow through .
  • Seasonal cadence matters: Margin accretion is expected to be more pronounced in Q1 and Q4; monitor contingent commissions and rate/exposure normalization intra‑year .
  • Balance sheet trajectory is constructive: Net leverage <4.5x exiting Q1 with goal <4x by YE; continued deleveraging should support equity narrative despite earnout cash uses .
  • Portfolio optimization supports fundamentals: Connected Risk Solutions divestiture and tech/data partnerships (ICEYE) aim to lift organic growth and margins while sharpening strategic focus .
  • Watch UCTS contingent dynamics: Timing/mix can swing quarterly margins; Q4 expected uplift implies potential year‑end outperformance vs mid‑year run rate .
  • Brand/ticker transition: Rebrand to The Baldwin Group and ticker change to BWIN may broaden investor awareness; no fundamental impact, but supports unified market identity .
  • Trading lens: Near‑term, stock may react to margin cadence and evidence of deleveraging; medium‑term, thesis rests on sustained organic growth, expanding adj. EBITDA margins, and disciplined capital allocation .