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Armlogi Holding Corp. (BTOC)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Mixed print: revenue beat but EPS missed. Q4 revenue was $50.94M vs S&P Global consensus $50.14M (beat), while Q4 EPS was -$0.10 vs -$0.04 consensus (miss). FY25 revenue was $190.41M vs $189.61M consensus (beat), with FY GAAP diluted EPS -$0.37 and S&P Primary EPS actual -$0.34 vs -$0.28 consensus (miss) (S&P Global values marked with *).
  • FY25 deterioration in profitability driven by higher third‑party carrier costs (FedEx/UPS) and costs from footprint expansion (rent, labor, new leases), pushing FY gross margin to -1.6% from 10.8% YoY; net loss was $15.35M vs net income $7.44M in FY24 .
  • Management emphasizes operational optimization, technology-driven efficiency, and cost management; expects gradual margin improvement as utilization increases; no formal numeric guidance given .
  • Potential narrative catalysts: revenue resilience amid customer growth and footprint scale vs ongoing freight cost headwinds; management commentary on tariff relief (Q3) and diversification of carrier relationships could support future margin repair if executed .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Revenue growth and customer expansion: FY25 revenue +14% to $190.4M; active customers “more than four‑fold” to 505; management remains confident in capturing opportunities with 10 warehouses (~3.9M sq. ft.) .
    • Q4/FY revenue beat vs S&P consensus: Q4 $50.94M vs $50.14M*; FY $190.41M vs $189.61M* (beats) (S&P Global values marked with *).
    • Quote: “Despite these challenges, we remain committed to our growth strategy… focus remains on operational optimization, technology-driven efficiency, and prudent cost management” — Aidy Chou, CEO .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Margin compression from carrier and expansion costs: FY gross margin fell to -1.6% (from 10.8%) as costs of service rose 29.9%; management cites FedEx/UPS rate pressure and expansion-related rent/labor .
    • Profitability reversal: FY net loss $15.35M vs FY24 net income $7.44M; diluted EPS -$0.37; Q3 gross margin just ~0.6%, highlighting sustained headwinds .
    • Q4 EPS miss vs S&P: Q4 EPS -$0.10 vs -$0.04*; FY S&P Primary EPS -$0.34* vs -$0.28*; no formal timeline to profitability (only directional commentary) (S&P Global values marked with *) .

Financial Results

Quarterly revenue, EPS, and gross margin (oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 FY25 (3M ended 12/31/24)Q3 FY25 (3M ended 3/31/25)Q4 FY25 (3M ended 6/30/25)
Revenue ($USD Millions)$51.10 $45.84 $50.94*
Diluted EPS ($)N/A-$0.09 -$0.10*
Gross Margin %0.9% 0.6% N/A

FY results

MetricFY2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$190.41
Gross Margin %-1.6%
Net (Loss) Income ($USD Millions)-$15.35
Diluted EPS ($)-$0.37
Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Restricted Cash ($USD Millions)$13.58

Consensus vs Actuals (S&P Global; values marked with *)

MetricQ4 2025FY 2025
Revenue – Actual$50.94M*$190.41M*
Revenue – Consensus$50.14M*$189.61M*
EPS – Actual-$0.10*-$0.34*
EPS – Consensus-$0.04*-$0.28*
  • Q4 revenue beat and EPS miss; FY revenue beat and EPS miss (S&P Global values marked with *).

Segment snapshot (where disclosed)

PeriodTransportation RevenueWarehousing Revenue
Q2 FY25$36.1M $15.0M
Q1 FY26 (for context)$32.1M $17.4M

KPIs

KPIQ4 FY25/FY EndSubsequent Quarter
Active customers505 607 (as of 9/30/25)
Warehouse count10 10
Network square footage~3.9M ~3.9M
Inventory accuracy99.64%
Revenue mix (PRC-based clients)~84% (FY25)

Guidance Changes

No formal quantitative guidance was provided for revenue, EPS, margins, OpEx, OI&E, or tax. Management emphasized operational optimization, technology efficiency, and utilization improvement; no numeric ranges were issued.

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY26Not providedNot providedMaintained: no guidance
EPSFY26Not providedNot providedMaintained: no guidance
Gross marginFY26Not providedExpect gradual improvement with utilizationDirectional only
OpExFY26Not providedFocus on cost management/optimizationDirectional only
Tax rate / OI&E / DividendsFY26Not providedNot providedMaintained: no guidance

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 FY25)Previous Mentions (Q3 FY25)Current Period (Q4 FY25)Trend
Carrier cost inflation (FedEx/UPS)UPS cost increase a major driver; diversifying carriers, routing/TMS optimization Higher costs pressured margins; optimism on tariff relief Elevated freight costs remain key margin headwind Easing if diversification/tariff environment helps
Warehouse expansion/utilizationExpanded from 9 to 12 sites plan; focus on utilization/automation Optimization of expanded footprint 10 warehouses ~3.9M sq. ft.; focus on optimization Scale achieved; pivot to utilization/efficiency
Tariffs/macroN/A“Substantial reduction in tariffs” cited as positive for sector/margins Monitoring macro/trade; no quantified benefit yet Potential tailwind if sustained
Technology/AIAI-enhanced WMS rollout; 15–20% efficiency, 25% labor reduction potential (pilot) General tech leverage for efficiency Technology-driven efficiency reiterated Execution ongoing; benefits phased
Customer diversificationN/AN/APRC-based clients ~84% of revenue; diversifying mix Gradual diversification underway

Management Commentary

  • “Fiscal year 2025 demonstrated continued strong demand… 14% revenue growth… However… expansion of our operations… and freight cost increases from our carriers have significantly impacted profitability” — Aidy Chou, CEO .
  • “We are actively implementing measures to improve efficiency and profitability… focus is on optimization of operations, leveraging our technology… We remain committed to our growth strategy” — Scott Hsu, CFO .
  • “One customer accounts for around 10% of revenue… down from FY24 when two customers represented 20% and 12%… We leverage ISO 9001 services with 99.64% inventory accuracy… nationwide coverage and bulky‑item focus” — Scott Hsu, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • FY26 growth drivers: Continued demand from cross‑border e‑commerce and U.S. customers; full utilization of ~3.9M sq. ft. network; tech platform enhancements (Order Management System); no single contract expected to be material .
  • Profitability/FCF timeline: No specific timeline; expect gradual margin improvement with utilization and technology; monitoring trade policy and inflation; prioritizing sustainable margin repair .
  • Customer concentration and differentiation: Top customer ~10% of revenue (reduced concentration); differentiation via ISO 9001 quality, 99.64% inventory accuracy, 24/7 multilingual support, long‑term carrier agreements, and bulky‑item/nationwide niche .

Estimates Context

  • Coverage is thin (1 estimate each for Q4 and FY), but based on S&P Global: Q4 revenue beat ($50.94M vs $50.14M*) and EPS miss (-$0.10 vs -$0.04*); FY revenue beat ($190.41M vs $189.61M*) and EPS miss (-$0.34 vs -$0.28*) (S&P Global values marked with *).
  • Given margin pressure and management’s focus on optimization rather than growth-at-any-cost, EPS estimates could drift lower near term until clear evidence of carrier cost relief and utilization gains emerges; revenue estimates may prove more resilient given customer and footprint expansion .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Top‑line resilience continues, but profitability remains pressured by carrier costs and expansion expenses; the near‑term narrative hinges on demonstrating margin repair while sustaining growth .
  • Q4/FY revenue beats vs S&P consensus contrast with EPS misses; with minimal estimate coverage, individual datapoints can drive outsized stock reactions (revenue strength vs EPS pressure) (S&P Global values marked with *).
  • Watch execution on carrier diversification and contract repricing to blunt FedEx/UPS pressure; any quantifiable reduction in unit shipping costs would be a powerful inflection driver .
  • Utilization and technology initiatives (AI/WMS, OMS) are key to unlocking operating leverage; management points to phased improvements as warehouses fill and systems mature .
  • Customer mix remains PRC‑heavy (~84% of FY25 revenue); successful diversification to U.S./non‑PRC customers can lower geopolitical and macro sensitivity .
  • Macro/tariff backdrop could swing margins; management flagged tariff reductions as a potential tailwind, but no numerical impact embedded yet .
  • Liquidity acceptable ($13.58M cash and restricted at FY-end) with focus on cost control; monitor cash trends and financing usage as optimization progresses .

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Citations:

  • FY25 8‑K and press release details, financial statements and commentary:
  • Q4 FY25 earnings call transcript: and
  • Q3 FY25 8‑K and press release:
  • Q3 FY25 earnings call transcript:
  • Q2 FY25 earnings call transcript:
  • Q1 FY26 press release (context/trend):