Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- BorgWarner has a strong presence in China, with 20% of global sales coming from the region, and 75% of those sales are with Chinese OEMs, of which 90% are in New Energy Vehicles (NEV), positioning the company well to benefit from the growth of Chinese OEMs in both domestic and export markets.
- The company aims to outgrow the market on both its foundational and electric product portfolios, leveraging its position as #1 or #2 in foundational products and being well-positioned to capture growth in new electric product launches.
- BorgWarner's strong financial position enables it to invest in both organic growth and thoughtful acquisitions, viewing industry turbulence as an opportunity to make strategic investments that create long-term shareholder value.
- North American EV program delays and lower eProduct growth: BorgWarner disclosed that a delay of a North American EV program and sale pricing on the battery pack business are the biggest drivers of lower outgrowth in 2025. This is affecting their ability to achieve the previously anticipated 4% growth over market, with 2025 outgrowth expected to remain in the 2% to 3% range.
- Exposure to potential tariffs impacting costs and margins: BorgWarner has significant exposure to imports into the U.S., with approximately $875 million worth of material imported in 2024, about half of which originated in Mexico. Potential tariffs could impact their costs, and while they plan to share the impact with customers and suppliers, this could affect margins.
- Soft performance in the PowerDrive Systems (PDS) segment: In 2024, the PDS segment saw a decline of over $200 million in sales, primarily due to customer programs being pending on the foundational side and volatility in the eProducts market. This softness raises concerns about the growth prospects of their electrification business.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +83% | The sharp increase stemmed from significant eProduct expansion, strategic acquisitions, and favorable market demand. In particular, organic net sales grew on the back of strong customer orders in new electrification programs, while foreign currency provided a minor tailwind. |
North America | +259% | This outsized growth was driven by a major recovery in vehicle production versus the prior period, alongside successful auto OEM launches of electric vehicle components. Additionally, restructuring actions taken last year helped lower costs, amplifying the region’s revenue growth. |
Europe | +104% | Market conditions improved with higher vehicle build schedules, especially in battery-electric and hybrid platforms. Company-specific initiatives, including localization of eMotor and inverter manufacturing, boosted regional revenues. Europe also benefited from currency gains. |
Asia | +20% | While the region’s growth rate was more modest compared to other geographies, steady demand for electric and hybrid platforms among local OEMs supported revenue increases. External factors, such as supply chain normalization, helped maintain volumes. |
Other | Improved from -$3M to $58M | This category rebounded primarily due to a one-time asset sale gain and lower merger-related expenses compared to the previous year. Cost-saving measures and improved overhead absorption also contributed to the positive shift. |
Operating Income | Decreased from $281M to -$316M | Despite strong top-line growth, substantial restructuring charges, higher input costs for electronics, and amortization from recent acquisitions weighed heavily on profitability. The company also saw short-term operational inefficiencies in ramping up eProduct production. |
Net Income | Decreased from $154M to -$405M | The swing into negative territory reflected the drop in operating income, along with increased non-cash charges tied to acquisitions and restructuring. An unfavorable tax adjustment contributed further to the decline, though management anticipates margin improvement in upcoming quarters. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sales | FY 2024 | $14.1B to $14.4B | $14.0B to $14.2B | lowered |
Margin | FY 2024 | 9.6% to 9.8% | 9.8% to 10.0% | raised |
Adjusted EPS | FY 2024 | not specified | $4.15 to $4.30 | raised |
End Market | FY 2024 | down 2% to 3% | down 3% to 3.5% | lowered |
Organic Sales Change | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | flat to down 1.5% | no prior guidance |
Outgrowth | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | 200 to 300 bps | no prior guidance |
Free Cash Flow | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | $475M to $575M | no prior guidance |
Foreign Currency Impact | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | $20M | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sales | FY 2024 | $14.0–$14.2 billion | $14.086 billion (sum of Q1 2024: $3,595, Q2 2024: $3,603, Q3 2024: $3,449, Q4 2024: $3,439) | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
China exposure and growth | Previously emphasized strong positioning in China, with 15-20% of sales from Chinese OEMs, noting challenges but significant EV and hybrid opportunities. | Continues to be a critical market, accounting for 20% of global sales; Q4 2024 highlighted lower volumes but still major EV focus and plans for future product launches. | Recurring topic; sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite near-term headwinds. |
Electrification and eProducts | Historically a major strategic focus. Discussed robust EV/hybrid growth, especially in China and Europe; highlighted battery systems, multiple product awards, and strong future revenue projections. | Q4 2024 notes $2.3B+ eProducts sales, slight softness in battery sales but resilience in other electrification lines; sees increasing EV adoption globally and reaffirms focus on scaling eProducts. | Consistent focus; remains a core growth driver with moderate near-term challenges. |
Growth Over Market (GOM) | Q1–Q3 2024 cited outperforming market by 2–4% on average, adjusted slightly downward in Q3 but still above industry production. | Q4 2024 expects 100–300 bps outgrowth despite various headwinds; maintained historical ~2–3% outperformance range. | Recurring theme; slight moderation but still positive outperformance outlook. |
Margins and cost structure | Q1–Q3 2024 margins ranged from ~9–10%, aided by restructuring, cost controls, and operational efficiencies; incremental margins generally in mid-teens. | Q4 2024 saw ~10.2% adjusted operating margin; benefits from restructuring actions, with expectations to remain above 10% range in 2025. | Consistently addressed; steady improvement, remains a key profitability focus. |
Tariffs and import cost exposure | Occasionally referenced potential U.S./Europe tariffs on Chinese imports and partial cost pass-through; Q2 mention of uncertainty in China trade. | In Q4 2024, indicated ~$875M in imported materials, with partial exposure from Mexico, Canada, and China; no net cost included in guidance, pending timing and cost-sharing. | Re-emerged discussion; monitoring impact, not consistently highlighted every quarter. |
PowerDrive Systems (PDS) performance | Q2–Q3 discussions detailed restructuring actions to align costs, expecting $100M savings by 2026; short-term sales challenges from program delays but optimism about long-term profitability. | Q4 2024 faced over $200M sales decline in foundational side; e-side relatively flat; recorded a $577M goodwill impairment but highlighted upcoming product launches for 2025. | Ongoing topic; sentiment remains mixed due to near-term setbacks countered by optimism for future launches. |
Eldor losses | Drag on operating income each quarter: ~$9–14M year-over-year. | Q4 2024 documents a $12M year-over-year drag. | Persistent headwind; continues to weigh on earnings, consistently acknowledged. |
North American EV program delays | Mentioned in Q2 as underperformance in a BEV program in North America; Q3 indicated slowdown in quoting but no direct large-scale mention of a single delayed program. | Cited again in Q4 2024 as a primary factor dampening growth, with major EV program delays reducing near-term outlook. | Recurrent challenge; sentiment slightly more cautious with delays persisting. |
Acquisitions and strategic investments | Earlier quarters (Q1–Q3 2024) included references to Eldor, SSE acquisitions, cautious stance on further M&A, and emphasis on organic growth and balanced capital returns. | Q4 2024 reiterates organic investment as top priority but remains open to acquisitive opportunities, leveraging strong balance sheet amid market turbulence. | Continual element; consistent messaging on disciplined acquisitions and focus on inorganic growth if warranted. |
Declining market production volumes | Q1–Q3 2024 consistently noted weaker market conditions (down 2–6%), specifically in China and Europe; still managed to outperform. | Q4 2024 shows ~4% decline in production but ~220 bps outgrowth; expects further decline of 1–3% in 2025 with continued emphasis on outperforming market. | Ongoing constraint; moderate negativity with slight offsets from above-market performance. |
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Margin Outlook
Q: Why aren't margins improving despite restructuring benefits?
A: Margins are maintained at 10.1% on relatively flat sales. Savings from restructuring are included, and we're focusing on cost control to sustain performance into 2025. -
China EV Market
Q: What's the growth outlook for EV products in China?
A: We expect EV adoption to increase year-over-year in China. We're strong with Chinese OEMs, who hold over 90% of the EV market share, and they are 75% of our business there, positioning us well despite competitive dynamics. -
CapEx and Buybacks
Q: How will lower CapEx impact buybacks?
A: CapEx will remain around 4%-5% of sales, down from the mid-5% range previously. We've deployed $3.4 billion to shareholders since 2020 and will focus on earnings and cash flow growth, considering buybacks appropriately as we move forward. -
M&A Opportunities
Q: Will you focus more on inorganic growth opportunities?
A: We'll continue to invest organically as our top priority but also look at acquisitions as an important part of our strategy. Current industry turbulence offers unique opportunities given our financial strength, and we'll pursue them thoughtfully to create long-term shareholder value. -
Tariff Impact
Q: How will potential tariffs affect products from Mexico?
A: In 2024, imports to the U.S. were $875 million, with about half originating in Mexico. If impacted by tariffs, we'll need to share costs with customers and suppliers, and we're watching developments closely. -
Growth Over Market
Q: Will outgrowth return to 4% over market?
A: Our outgrowth has been 2%-3% recently, and 2025 will be similar. Lower outgrowth is due to a North American EV program delay and reduced battery pricing. We aim to outgrow the market across both foundational and e-product portfolios. -
eProducts Performance
Q: How will eProducts perform this year?
A: eProducts are growing year-over-year but softened due to the battery business. Battery sales are flat in units but revenue is down due to price reductions. The battery business is over a $600 million operation, and our Akasol acquisition is ahead of expectations despite turmoil. -
North American EV Delay
Q: How does the delayed North American EV program affect growth?
A: The delay is a key driver of lower outgrowth in 2025. We're focusing on expanding market share with foundational products and outgrowing markets on the e-side as new launches occur. -
EREV Potential
Q: Can EREV success in China be replicated in the U.S. and Europe?
A: Other regions are starting to consider EREVs, especially in the truck market, to meet emission requirements. While volumes aren't large yet, it's an emerging option for customers. -
China OEM Exposure
Q: What's your exposure to Chinese OEMs?
A: China accounts for 20% of our global sales, with 75% of that from Chinese OEMs. We're well-positioned as they grow domestically and in exports. -
Adjusting to EV Shifts
Q: How do you adjust to quick shifts like EV delays?
A: We've seen ERFQs slowing outside China with delays or cancellations. However, we've received more RFQs for foundational products, resulting in higher volumes and extensions. We're well-positioned to capitalize now and be ready when new EV programs launch.