Executive Summary

Revenue grew 11% year-over-year to $378.8M and organic revenue growth was 11%; adjusted diluted EPS rose 24% to $0.42, with revenue and adjusted EPS modestly above S&P Global consensus for Q2 2025. The company reported a GAAP diluted loss per share of $0.05 due to interest expense and other items . Q2 consensus: revenue $375.0M*, EPS $0.416*, actuals $378.8M and $0.42, respectively .
Adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to $85.5M; margin expanded 60 bps to 22.6%. Management highlighted strong new business and execution, while noting unfavorable rate/exposure trends emerging across property and certain retail lines .
Guidance updated: FY25 revenue $1.50–$1.52B; organic growth “high single digits”; adjusted EBITDA bottom-end reaffirmed at $345M; adjusted diluted EPS $1.62–$1.67. Q3 guide: revenue $355–$365M, adjusted EBITDA $70–$75M, adjusted EPS $0.28–$0.31 .
Catalysts: earnout obligations largely extinguished (paid ~$57M in Q2), improving capital allocation flexibility; accelerating embedded mortgage partnerships and builder channel initiatives, plus UCTS momentum tempered by E&S homeowners competition and pricing pressure .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Double-digit organic growth and margin expansion: organic revenue +11%, adjusted EBITDA +14% to $85.5M; adjusted EBITDA margin +60 bps to 22.6% YoY .
Sales velocity and segment performance: sales velocity rose to 22%, with IAS organic growth 10% and UCTS +21% (on top of very strong 2024 comps); multifamily and homeowners portfolios performed well; Juniper Re revenue >100% YoY .
Strategic milestones: completion of third-party capitalization of Builder Reciprocal Insurance Exchange (BRE); acquisition of Hippo’s homebuilder distribution network expanding builder partners; aqua-hire of MultiStrat to source alternative reinsurance capital .
Quote: “Our business once again generated double-digit organic growth, while delivering adjusted EBITDA growth of 14%, 60 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 24%” — Trevor Baldwin, CEO .

What Went Wrong

GAAP net loss: Q2 GAAP net loss of $5.1M driven by $31.3M net interest expense and other items; GAAP diluted loss per share of $0.05 .
UCTS E&S homeowners headwinds: increased competition and pricing/terms pressure in coastal E&S homeowners led to growth pressure; underwriting discipline maintained, but new business slowed .
MIS Medicare churn and builder commission headwind: elevated renewal churn amid managed care disruptions; reduced commission rates on builder business with QBE effective May 1 weighed on MIS, resulting in flat organic growth in the segment .
Adjusted free cash flow pressure: Q2 adjusted FCF of ~$9M vs $29M in Q2’24, impacted by semiannual cash interest timing and contingent receipt timing (expected to normalize) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$339.840	$413.405	$378.811
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)	-$0.28	$0.20	-$0.05
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.34	$0.65	$0.42
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$74.888	$113.795	$85.512
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	22.0%	27.5%	22.6%
Organic Revenue Growth (%)	19%	10%	11%
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	$(30.867)	$24.898	$(5.141)

Q2 2025 vs S&P Global Consensus

Metric	Consensus Q2 2025	Actual Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	375.020*	378.811
Primary EPS ($USD)	0.416*	0.42

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Organic Growth

Segment	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Insurance Advisory Solutions (IAS)	3%	10%
Underwriting Capacity & Technology Solutions (UCTS)	32%	21%
Main Street Insurance Solutions (MIS)	10%	Flat

Key KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Sales Velocity (%)	14%	22% (18% YTD)
Rate & Exposure (IAS, tailwind/headwind)	-3.5% headwind	+1.3% tailwind (normalized outlook negative)
Property Renewal Premium Change (%)	—	-5% overall; Real estate -11%
Construction Exposure Change (%)	—	-24% exposures; growth driven by new business
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$25.809	~$9
Net Leverage (x)	4.2x	4.17x
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$81.781	$105.695
Revolver Borrowing Capacity ($USD Millions)	$586	$474

Non-GAAP notes: Adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, organic revenue and adjusted free cash flow exclude items including amortization, share-based compensation, fair value changes in contingent consideration, transaction-related costs and earnout-related payments; reconciliations provided in the release .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	“Unchanged” outlook; numeric range not disclosed	$1.50–$1.52	Range provided; lowered organic growth to high-single-digit
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	Range previously indicated (not disclosed in Q1); bottom end implied	Maintain bottom end at $345	Maintained bottom-end; efficiency offsets headwinds
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)	FY 2025	—	$1.62–$1.67	New explicit range
Organic Revenue Growth (%)	FY 2025	Double-digit for overall business	High-single-digit	Lowered due to rate/exposure, Medicare, UCTS E&S, timing shift
Revenue ($USD Millions)	Q2 2025	$370–$380	Actual $378.8	In range; slight beat vs consensus
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	Q2 2025	$83–$88	Actual $85.5	In range
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)	Q2 2025	$0.41–$0.44	Actual $0.42	In range
Revenue ($USD Millions)	Q3 2025	—	$355–$365	New quarterly guide
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	Q3 2025	—	$70–$75	New quarterly guide
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)	Q3 2025	—	$0.28–$0.31	New quarterly guide
Tax Rate (Adjusted)	FY 2025	~9.9% assumption	~10% effective in adjusted results; no cash taxpayer for years	Clarified trajectory

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
Rate/exposure & property pricing	Q1: IAS headwind ~800 bps; property renewal change down vs prior year; benefits renewal flat amid macro caution	IAS +1.3% tailwind aided by large energy exposures; property renewal -5%, real estate -11%; outlook assumes negative rate/exposure in H2	Headwind intensifying (normalizing after one-off exposure tailwind)
Sales velocity & hiring	Q1: Sales velocity 14%; advisor headcount up, cohorts ramp over 12–36 months	Sales velocity 22% (18% YTD), top decile; continue to plan mid-teens advisor growth	Strengthening
UCTS performance & underwriting discipline	Q1: UCTS +32%; multifamily and homeowners strong; captive introduced; BRE capitalization	UCTS +21%; multifamily +14%; Juniper Re >100%; E&S homeowners competition increases; underwriting discipline preserved	Still strong, but competitive pressure in E&S coastal
MIS builder & Medicare	Q1: MIS +10%; strong builder/mortgage; Medicare strong in AEP	MIS flat: QBE builder commission reduction; Medicare renewal churn; expect stabilization in 2026 with higher plan funding	Near-term headwinds; medium-term tailwinds
Embedded distribution (mortgage/real estate)	Q1: pipeline building, tech platform maturing	7 embedded partners live (6 in Q2), 6–7 more by year-end; top-20 mortgage originator exclusive provider in Q3; early 25% win rate from opt-in leads	Accelerating installs; early conversion promising
Capital allocation & earnouts	Q4: AFO growth; earnouts to be largely satisfied	~$57M earnouts paid in Q2; majority extinguished; flexibility to invest (Hippo builder network, surplus notes for BRE)	Inflection toward FCF and deleveraging
Tax & interest caps	Q1: fiduciary cash reporting change; seasonality in FCF	Not cash taxpayer for years; interest deductibility restored; rate caps expiring with no material impact	Neutral to positive
M&A multiples	—	Divergence: high-quality assets command top-tier pricing; lower-quality lag; healthy deal flow	Selective, quality-focused
Florida/Coastal dynamics	Q1: Florida tort reform improved market health; cost of risk remains elevated (nat cat)	E&S coastal competition rising; capacity from large carriers and London binders; disciplined stance	Competitive pressures persist

Management Commentary

“Our remaining earnout obligations associated with our Partnership activity over the last five years are behind us now… increased flexibility around capital allocation… to sustain our industry-leading organic revenue growth, improve margin expansion, and decrease financial leverage” — Trevor Baldwin, CEO .
UCTS drivers: “organic revenue growth came in at 21%… continued strength in our multifamily portfolio… builder and real estate investor products grew commissions and fees by 25–35%… Juniper Re achieved YoY revenue growth of over 100%” .
MIS headwinds: “reduced commission rates on our builder business with QBE… Medicare business experienced headwinds… elevated turnover in our renewal book… pressure to persist for the balance of 2025” .
Strategy: “MultiStrat… adds an important capability to source alternative reinsurance capital… strategic contributions… broker of the future strategy” .
CFO: “We now forecast full year revenue of $1,500,000,000 to $1,520,000,000 while maintaining the bottom end of our adjusted EBITDA range of $345 million… Expect adjusted diluted EPS to be between $1.62 and $1.67 for the full year” .

Q&A Highlights

IAS strength and rate/exposure: IAS organic growth +10% driven by strong new business (sales velocity 22%) and some exposure pull-through in energy; property renewal -5% with bifurcation (admitted non-cat low/mid single-digit increases vs large cat-exposed -20% to -40%) .
Adjusted free cash flow mechanics: Q2 AFO ~$9M vs $29M in Q2’24 due to semiannual interest payment timing; contingent receipts collection expected to normalize; plan to reduce revolver by ~$20M imminently .
E&S homeowners: heightened competition and capacity; disciplined underwriting even if it slows new business; exposure concentrated in coastal states (FL, TX, CA, Gulf Coast) .
Medicare dynamics: elevated churn to persist through 2025; stabilization expected in 2026 with higher CMS funding; MIS revenues likely flat in 2025, returning to double-digit growth next year .
Leverage and taxes: net leverage 4.17x in Q2; goal ≤4x by year-end; not expected to be cash taxpayer for years due to NOLs and improved interest deductibility; ~10% effective tax used in adjusted results .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 delivered modest beats versus S&P Global consensus: revenue $378.8M vs $375.0M* and adjusted EPS $0.42 vs Primary EPS consensus $0.416*. Note that consensus EPS appears comparable to adjusted diluted EPS, while GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.05 due to interest and other non-operating items .
FY 2025 consensus: revenue ~$1.510B*, Primary EPS ~$1.665*, EBITDA ~$341.0M*. Management guided revenue $1.50–$1.52B and maintained bottom-end adjusted EBITDA at $345M, bracketing consensus revenue and roughly aligning with adjusted EBITDA threshold; adjusted EPS guided $1.62–$1.67, near consensus* .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q2 execution was solid: revenue and adjusted EPS were above consensus, with organic growth resilient at 11% despite emerging rate/exposure headwinds; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 60 bps YoY to 22.6% .
Near-term growth moderated: FY organic growth cut to high-single digits due to four drivers—negative rate/exposure in retail IAS, E&S homeowners competition in UCTS, Medicare renewal churn, and a procedural revenue recognition shift pushing ~$10M from 2025 to 2026 .
Capital structure inflecting: majority of earnouts paid; management targets net leverage ≤4x by YE25, increasing flexibility for strategic investments (Hippo builder network, BRE) and supporting FCF growth as interest and capex growth slows .
Secular growth engines intact: top-decile sales velocity, expanding embedded mortgage partners (exclusive with a top-20 originator in Q3), builder channel strength, and MGA product initiatives (Juniper Re, multifamily captive) underpin medium-term double-digit growth potential .
Watch E&S dynamics and coastal competition: underwriting discipline may temper UCTS growth in E&S homeowners near term, but balanced MGA portfolio and capacity sourcing (MultiStrat) mitigate risk .
Estimate path: With EPS guidance $1.62–$1.67 and revenue $1.50–$1.52B, Street models may drift lower on organic growth assumptions; monitor H2 rate/exposure trends and Medicare renewal stabilization into 2026 .
Tactical: Q3 guide (revenue $355–$365M; adjusted EBITDA $70–$75M; EPS $0.28–$0.31) sets a lower bar sequentially; potential beats hinge on sales velocity holding near 20% and faster normalization in contingent receipts/AR .

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary