BW LPG - Q3 2022
November 16, 2022
Transcript
Glenn Lodden (Senior Manager and Commercial Analyst)
Welcome to BW LPG's third quarter 2022 financial results presentation. Bringing you through the presentation today are CEO Anders Onarheim, Deputy CEO and Head of Strategy Kristian Sørensen, CFO Elaine Ong, EVP Commercial Niels Rigault, and EVP Technical and Operations Pontus Berg. We are pleased to answer questions at the end of the presentation. Should you have any, please type them into the chat box in your Zoom panel. You may also use the raise hand option. Before we begin, we wish to highlight the legal disclaimers shown in the current slide. This presentation held on Zoom is also being recorded. I now turn the call over to our CEO, Anders Onarheim.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Thank you, Glenn. Reflecting the truly international nature of shipping.
Operator (participant)
This meeting is being recorded.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
BW LPG, we speak to you from three locations today. Kristian and myself from Oslo, Elaine and Pontus from Singapore, and Niels from New Delhi, India. Our Indian subsidiary, BW LPG India, is welcoming our stakeholders at LPG Week, an event organized by the World LPG Association. Since we cannot bring everyone on board a vessel, we have harnessed technology in India with the technology to bring a vessel to you. If you're in India, come by to see a virtual reality model of BW Cedar, an Indian-flagged VLGC managed by our partner, Synergy Group. It has been a busy quarter for the team at BW LPG. Our acquisition of Vilma Oil, Vilma Oil's LPG trading operation that was announced last quarter has been approved now by the Spanish regulatory authority.
We've had solid financial results, and we are also well prepared for the upcoming environmental regulations. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook of the market. We're working hard to contribute to energy security by delivering LPG safely and sustainably around the world. With increasing demand for natural gas, we're also seeing a growing awareness of the possibilities for LPG in many ways. In many ways, we're surfing this wave of increased production of oil and gas. More on this later. Some key highlights and figures for the quarter. Our average day rate was $38,200 per available days during the quarter, with a very good 98% commercial utilization. This compares very favorably to our colleagues in the industry, and I think it really underlines the importance of having a critical mass in the fleet.
We have ample liquidity of $365 million and a net leverage ratio of 25%. 93% of our floating interest debt is hedged at an average rate of 2.1% before margin for the next half decade. We also sold and delivered one VLGC, the BW Prince, in October, generating $44 million in liquidity with a book gain of $2 million. I think this further confirms that our asset values are real. Last but not, certainly not least, we received, as I said, the approval from the Spanish authorities for the acquisition of Vilma Oil's LPG trading operation. We are very excited to be welcoming our new colleagues, and I'm happy to see that the team is working hard to complete the transaction by the end of this year. Kristian will give you more details here later.
We continue with our 75% payout policy for dividends and we return $0.25 per share for the third quarter. This brings our total dividend payments up to $102 million so far in 2022. For our market outlook, we continue to have a positive view of 2023. Niels will elaborate on this, but just to give you a quick primer. We expect strong export growth from both the U.S. and Middle East, coupled with stable retail demand and recovery in demand from the Far East petrochemical industry. We also expect the implementation of the new regulations, the EEXI and the CII, to reduce the effective supply of the VLGC fleet. The certain shipping efficiencies will certainly continue into next year. That's the highlights and outlook.
Before we go to the next slide, Kristian will now share some additional details on the Vilma Oil trading transaction and what we can look forward to in the future. Kristian?
Kristian Sørensen (Deputy CEO and Head of Strategy)
Great. Thanks, Anders. Yes, as you mentioned, as a subsequent event since the end of Q3, we are pleased to announce that we recently received the Spanish authorities' approval for our acquisition of Vilma's LPG trading activities. We expect to close this transaction by the end of the year, and following the closing, we will increase our trading activities under the name BW LPG Product Services, with presence in Singapore, Madrid, as well as Oslo. In addition, we plan for up to five of Vilma's VLGCs to enter the BW LPG pool over the coming months, which will have a consolidating effect on the freight market. BW LPG Product Services will report on their own trading book and will operate on market terms like any other player in the market.
We expect to start reporting on the contribution to BW LPG's EBITDA at the next earnings release. When we ramp up the product services activities, we will add another layer to BW LPG's commercial portfolio, which we are confident will increase our optionality and ability to adjust our exposure in the growing LPG market. As mentioned many times before, thanks to its versatility, green profile, and competitive pricing, LPG is increasingly regarded as an alternative to more costly energy sources, and we look forward to participating in this growing market with an even larger footprint than before. Back to you, Anders.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Thank you, Kristian.
We're currently experiencing a very strong LPG shipping market. As is often the case, there are multiple elements contribute to this happening. Strong demand for natural gas in Europe has certainly contributed to the high gas prices and consequently higher exports out of the U.S. also for LPG. The very large increase in LNG exports out of the U.S. have also contributed to the longer waiting times for Panama Canal transits. Today, we're seeing in excess of 20 days. Even if there are more U.S. originated voyages going to Europe instead of Asia, and thus the negative ton mile impact of this is offset by increased Middle East exports. For the very near term, we continue to enjoy a highly favorable spot rate environment with the vessel shortage of cargos coming out of the Middle East Gulf and other shipping inefficiencies.
Spot rates could see continued support for a good period going forward. At the same time, I think it's healthy to remind ourselves that rates well above $100,000 per day, they tend not to last forever. We expect continued volatility also in this market, even though the underlying fundamentals could look quite good. With that being said, I'll hand the floor over to Niels, who will talk more about the outlook and our commercial performance. Niels.
Niels Rigault (EVP Commercial)
Thank you, Anders, and good evening from India. Please turn to slide 7. We continue to have a positive view towards 2023, even with the high new building deliveries. The main reasons are, as Anders mentioned, the expectation for solid growth in both US and the Middle East export. We also see a recovery in Chinese LPG demand, supported by new PDH plants coming on stream with expected recovering margins. We should not forget about fleet inefficiencies, such as the Panama Canal. Regulations such as EEXI will have an impact on the speed of the VLGC fleets, and Pontus will talk more about the effects. The VLGC market will also face a heavy dry docking schedule next year. 67 VLGC to be dry docked, which is about the double compared to this year. Let's look closer on the third quarter and turn to slide 8.
For the third quarter, U.S. exports were steady compared to last year. Middle East, on the one hand, grew by substantially 23% compared to the same quarter last year. This growth was led by Saudi Arabia, Iran and Emirates. The majority of this export has found a home in Asia, mainly China and India. China actually increased their imports despite continued lockdown measures in place. While Indian imports were down during the quarter, we expect the full year to show growth due to the strong activity in October and November. European imports from the U.S. continue to grow, up by 143% in Q3 compared to last year. Let's dive a little bit into what 2023 will look like from a supply and demand perspective. Slide 9 shows the expected export growth from the main LPG hubs.
More than 10% growth in the US and more than 5% growth out of the Middle East. On slide 10, and on the graph to the left, we have illustrated how we expect the new VLGC delivery next year to be absorbed by both demand growth and market inefficiencies. We expect increased export will absorb approximately 45% of the new vessel capacity. In addition, we also expect Panama Canal delays to continue, and with the introduction of new regulation, it could potentially absorb new building fleet supply by about 30%. As a result, we expect a firm freight market for next year. Since inefficiencies plays a large part of it, we will continue to expect a very volatile market going forward. However, with our critical mass in the spot market, we are ready to face this challenge.
For my last slide before handing over to Pontus, please turn to slide 12. Anders has already touched on the rate figure, so I only add that we have booked 80% of our Q4 available days at an average rate of $50,000 per day. That we have covered 17% for 2023 at $34,100 time charter days. With that, I would like to hand over the floor to Pontus. Thank you.
Pontus Berg (EVP Technical and Operations)
Thank you very much, Niels, and good evening to all of you from Singapore. The team continues to keep our focus on best-in-class operations as we put the final touches to ensure full compliance with upcoming environmental regulations. To date, we have conducted close to 600 port calls and Panama Canal transits, and the team continues to target just-in-time arrivals to save bunkers, reduce emissions, and serve our customers' interest best possible. Year to date, we have consumed 22,340 tons of LPG fuel, saving over $6 million in fuel cost versus combined fuel. We have also reduced our CO₂ emissions by over 12,000 tons. Combining high-tech ships with smart operations, we are in a strong position to meet the new green regulations coming into force next year. Turning to next slide.
The key message we wish to leave you with is that come first January 2023, it remains business more or less as usual for BW LPG. All our vessels will be able to fulfill their commercial obligations. With available data, we can however see that 50% of the current world VLGC fleet will need to slow down in various degrees as a direct result of the EEXI regulations coming into force. EEXI or Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index determines the efficiency of the design of current vessels on the water. If the efficiency of the vessel does not meet the required baseline, mitigation methods such as engine power reduction, i.e. slowdown, or using less carbon-intensive fuel such as LPG will be needed. CII or Carbon Intensity Indicator is an operational grade indication on how efficiently a ship conducts her voyages.
Every year from 2023, a vessel would be rated from A to E, where E or D rating for three consecutive years impose the need for a plan to be approved by class on how to achieve C rating or better. The easiest and cheapest way to achieve C class or better if you are E or D is to reduce the engine power and thus slow down your vessel. Else one would be looking at various retrofits such as sails, Mewis Duct or CO₂ efficient fuel conversions, again, such as LPG, for example. It do remain to be seen how these new regulations will impact the overall business in the months to come. However, our fleet remains operable, and all vessels will be able to fulfill their commercial obligations. In particular, our 15 LGIP vessels will maintain maximum service speed for the foreseeable future.
On this note, over to you Elaine.
Elaine Ong (CFO)
Thanks, Pontus, and a very good day to all of you. I'll walk you through the key financial highlights from our third quarter. Starting with our per day statistics, our VLGC fleet generated $37,200 per calendar day during the quarter. Daily vessel OpEx came in above budget at $7,900 per day, largely due to higher manning expenses, escalating cost of lubricants with a high oil price, and inflationary pressures on the cost of stores and spares. For 2022, our operating cash breakeven for our total fleet, including our chartered-in vessels, is at $22,800 per day. EBITDA for the quarter was $93 million, which represents an EBITDA margin of 71%. We ended the quarter with a net profit of $46 million. This translates into an earnings per share of $0.32.
With our net leverage ratio at 25% this quarter, our board has declared an interim dividend of $0.25 per share, equating to a payout ratio of 77% of NPAT. At September 30, we had $133 million of cash, $2.2 billion in total assets, of which $1.6 billion relates to the carrying value of our vessels. Our positive free cash flow of $58 million this quarter was derived mainly from our strong operating cash flows, as there were minimum CapEx since our LGIP retrofit program was already completed in the previous quarter. Our return on equity and capital employed this quarter were 10% and 13% respectively. We ended the quarter with a total equity of $1.5 billion, which translates to an NAV per share of $10.50.
Here on slide 16 is an update on our financing structure and debt repayment profile. During the quarter, we drew down on our $198 million Indian debt facility for the BW Loyalty. She was the last of 8 vessels going into our Indian subsidiary. Our standing bank debt was at $442 million at the end of September. Our gross debt currently stands at $609 million. This includes $64 million in advances drawn on our trade finance facilities and $106 million in lease liabilities from our time chartered-in vessels. With a cash balance of $122 million, net of $11 million held in broker margin accounts, and $243 million undrawn revolving credit facilities, we ended the quarter with $365 million of available liquidity and a net debt of $487 million.
In today's rising interest rate environment, our interest rate hedges have sheltered us from the recent rate hikes, as over 90% of our long-term debt is now hedged at a fixed rate of 2.1% before margin for the next 5 years. On this note, let me open the floor for questions. Back to you, Glenn.
Glenn Lodden (Senior Manager and Commercial Analyst)
Thank you, Elaine. We will begin our Q&A session now. Should you have questions, please type them into the Zoom chat box. You can also click the Raise Hand button to ask your question verbally. Please note that participants have been automatically muted, so please press Unmute before speaking. We'll pause for a second to gather any questions. Again, should you have any questions, please type them into the Zoom chat box or use the Raise Hand button.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
If it was, I've never experienced that we've been that crystal clear before. I guess everybody thought it was a good quarter, so no difficult questions. Of course, we like if you wanna challenge us, but you know, if we're not gonna hold you if. Oh, actually someone is going to ask a question here. Now I'm glad I kept this going.
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Should I just shout out? This is Petter Haugen from ABG, calling.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Yes. Come on, Petter.
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
The slide showing the observation of the 45 vessels delivered next year, could you give some more color to what you put into that, in particular Panama Canal, sort of, outflow of 3 of those 45 vessels? What is the assumptions here and I guess the final question is that there is still an oversupply I can see. It's sort of 6 vessels too many in the order book, and what would be the consequence of that is sort of the latter part of the question.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Yes. Nils, do you wanna have a crack at that?
Niels Rigault (EVP Commercial)
Yes. I mean, the sound was not super good from India, but you talked about the Panama Canal for next year and our expectation.
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
Yes.
Niels Rigault (EVP Commercial)
Yeah.
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
How those three vessels which is taken out of the newbuilding order book, how? I suppose that's an increase from current levels in terms of additional-
Niels Rigault (EVP Commercial)
Yeah
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
additional waiting time.
Niels Rigault (EVP Commercial)
Yeah. No, it's correct. I mean, obviously there are some assumptions we need to take from here, but we see now clearly that the Panama Canal getting more and more congested. Right now, obviously it's Christmas season, so now it's really the waiting time is booming. You can clearly see that also on the auctions the Panama Canal has opened up for ships to pass it has exploded. Some people have paid up to $2 million just to pass the Panama Canal. We expect obviously the market to normalize when we get to the normal season.
We also expect increased traffic to the Panama Canal, like the LNG from the US. Was that answering your question?
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah. It did. Thank you. It's still an increase from the levels we've seen then in 2022.
Niels Rigault (EVP Commercial)
Yeah.
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah.
Niels Rigault (EVP Commercial)
Correct.
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
The sort of final part here, you leave some. I don't know, it's six ships, is it? Which is sort of growth which is not absurd. Right now, as far as I can tell, and perhaps you can enlighten me on that as well, the one year TC market is at some $36,000 per day. And current spot rates are at $130,000 per day. Will those sort of surplus six ships mean that the 2023 rates will be sort of considerably lower than what we've seen as the year to date average?
Niels Rigault (EVP Commercial)
I mean, it will definitely come down from the record levels we have today. If you look at the forward market, let's say the FFA market, you could actually lock in your CAL 23 at around low $40,000 per day. If you add on the benefit of, for instance, burning LPG, which has a delta of about $6,000, you suddenly come up with LPG propulsion ships doing in the mid- to high $40,000 per day, and that's what the market expects. Yes, it's down from the $100,000 we currently see now, but it will be volatile, as I said, but at least the market anticipates that the market will be around the $40,000 next year.
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
Mm-hmm. Okay. Thank you.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Of course.
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah, I'm sorry.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Of course we've seen various sort of estimates on the one, you know, how these inefficiencies and the regulations will affect the market. I mean, I think, you know, we are normally fairly conservative in our approach and so obviously, as Niels says, we expected it to be volatile and everything, but there's no question that our view of the new build book is much more balanced than it has been in the past. As Niels says, I think the market is indicating to us that we will also. We are able to use paper market to lock in, you know, still rates above, well above $40,000.
I think it's. Of course we will always try to manage whatever market we see ahead. But again, this is, I think, our conservative numbers, and we could of course see more effects both in the Panama Canal and even regulations.
Petter Haugen (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you so much. The final question from my side. If you were to sort of see the offers of the low $40,000 also in the TC markets, are you there to increase your coverage for 2023 at those levels, or are you now so comfortable that you would rather stay spot for the full sort of 80%+ of the fleet which you have open today?
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Niels, you can answer more. I think we'll take a balanced approach to that. I think if we are open, we're open to do you know some pre-charters if we see you know attractive rates you know up between $35 and $40, I think we would. Yes. Again, it's you know and simply because we expect the volatility to be large, we think it's good if we can get with the right counterparty, if we can get some good TCs, we will always consider that.
Yeah, and of course, you know, in India we have, you know, traditionally been, you know, 35% and just below, but of course that's also with, you know, work with our third parties and all the ships. Even there, that market is starting to look more optimistic.
Kristian Sørensen (Deputy CEO and Head of Strategy)
Thank you very much.
Glenn Lodden (Senior Manager and Commercial Analyst)
Thank you, Petr. Our next question comes from the line of Erik Havalsson. Erik, please go ahead.
Erik Havalsson (Analyst)
Hi. Thank you. Just to try to understand a little bit around your cash flow priorities, because obviously you've this is the fourth truly fantastic year for you, and your net debt levels have come down to very low levels as you show. Just you've sold a lot of older vessels. Are you at all starting to look at buying newer vessels? Do your TC portfolio have purchase options attached to them, for example? Should we kind of expect you to continue pursuing, you know, vertical integration or other types of acquisitions like the Vilma deal you did?
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
I think there's a yes and yes. I mean, we will look for opportunities if we see assets that fits into our portfolio. We will not order new ships at $95 million. We think that's not a good business proposition. You know, as we said, if we see opportunities, if we see maybe some with the new regulations coming next year, there might be opportunities for us to acquire vessels at a fair price, and we could even retrofit if we get the right assets. So we are open to look for growth. But again, it has to be right for us.
We are also, I can say, we are nearing a point where, you know, we think having critical mass in terms of, you know, being in the spot market as we are, we're not gonna sell a whole lot of more ships. That I can also say. Of course, we are, you know, with the Vilma, we're getting, you know, more ships into the pool. It has also given us, you know, given us more, again, you know, increased the sort of flexibility in the marketplace. That's important. Of course it is being with a strong balance sheet. You know, we always have discussions also with the board, you know, what's the sort of right capital allocation model going forward?
That's something we will continue to do. As I said again, we know this market is quite volatile, and we think having a strong balance sheet in a volatile market is always good. We will continue to discuss that. When it comes to the final question about looking for more opportunities, you know, in the value chain, yes, we will continue to do that. We think the Vilma Oil acquisition gives us another interesting leg to stand on and both an increase to earnings power, as Kristian Sørensen said, also it can give us, you know, more of a hedge in a tough market.
It will also give us an opportunity to look for other types of business that will complement you know the trading operation. We will definitely continue also to look for ways to just take a larger share of the whole market.
Erik Havalsson (Analyst)
Okay. As a follow-up, because obviously you have, I mean, you have a great track record of value creation since your IPO. When you say looking at other types of businesses and products, I mean, you, it will always be related to LPG first, to be clear. You're not-
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Absolutely.
Erik Havalsson (Analyst)
Yeah. Okay. It's other niches, other geographical regions, stuff like that.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Exactly.
Erik Havalsson (Analyst)
Logistics, investments. Okay. Thank you. Then, finally, just curious, the TC out, so your coverage for next year, that's physical TC out, right? That's not what you've done in the paper market.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
It's mostly physical, but there's also probably some, maybe some paper on that, but it's mostly physical.
Erik Havalsson (Analyst)
Okay. Thank you very much.
Glenn Lodden (Senior Manager and Commercial Analyst)
Thank you very much, Erik. Our next question comes from the line of Dr. Marcus Elasa, who writes on the chat, "What business volume/profit levels is expected from the Spanish acquisition? Thank you.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Christian.
Kristian Sørensen (Deputy CEO and Head of Strategy)
Yeah. Thanks for the question. I think it's a bit too early to guide on profit levels expected. With regards to business volume, just to give a little bit of insight. You know, today our current setup with BW Product Services is trading about 1 million tons. With the acquisition of Vilma's LPG trading activities, we will have a substantial increase in volumes, and it's gonna be more than doubling. It's hard to at this point be kind of too specific, but it's gonna be a substantial increase in the trading volume compared to what we have today. I hope to be more specific at the next earnings release.
As mentioned, we plan for reporting on BW LPG Product Services contribution to EBITDA by the next quarter.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
I can also add, we are very excited about the prospects here, you know. We also see that culturally it's a good fit with, you know, with the Vilma team, and they're quite experienced. Our expectations are high, but we will do this in the right tempo.
Glenn Lodden (Senior Manager and Commercial Analyst)
Our next question is also from the chat, from the line of Yun Nicolai Scotland. He's asking: "Regarding the Chinese petrochemical demand outlook, could you elaborate some on your expectations on the growth in Chinese PDH capacity? Thanks.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Niels, do you wanna take that?
Niels Rigault (EVP Commercial)
Sure. Yes, there are a number of PDHs planned, well, being built. Some of them has some delays this year. We will see the effect next year. In terms of number of or increased demand, it's about 5 million tons of propane. Also when we talk to the Chinese PDH plant owner, they also expect recovery of their margins. Yes. We currently expect about an increase about 5 million tons for next year.
Glenn Lodden (Senior Manager and Commercial Analyst)
Thank you, Niels. We have another question now from the line of Anders Karlsen, also in chat. He's asking: "How will you be treating the five Vilma vessels? As chartering or will they be part of the trading P&L?
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Christian.
Kristian Sørensen (Deputy CEO and Head of Strategy)
Yeah. The vessels will end up in the BW LPG VLGC pool against the COA voyages back. That's probably the most specific explanation I can give.
Glenn Lodden (Senior Manager and Commercial Analyst)
Okay. Thank you, Christian. We have no further questions on the chat. If there are anyone who would like to ask a question, this is your final chance.
Anders Onarheim (CEO)
Okay. We thank you very much for your attention, and we look forward to your continued support. Thank you.
Glenn Lodden (Senior Manager and Commercial Analyst)
Thank you very much. We've now come to the end of today's presentation. Thank you for attending, and have a good night.