Executive Summary

Q1 2025 results were mixed: GAAP EPS was effectively $0.00 while Distributable EPS was $0.17; Distributable EPS prior to charge-offs was $0.42, reflecting continued resolution momentum and investment activity .
Against S&P Global consensus for Q1, BXMT posted an EPS miss (actual $0.17 vs estimate $0.28) and a revenue miss on S&P’s revenue definition (actual $77.4M vs estimate $107.2M), though company-reported total net revenues rose sequentially to $126.9M; management attributed near-term earnings headwinds to timing between repayments and redeployment and drag from non-earning impaired assets . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Strategic execution advanced: $1.6B new originations, $1.8B repayments (86% office), 95% of the portfolio performing, $0.4B impaired loan resolutions above carrying value, and a $1.0B reinvesting CRE CLO issuance strengthened liquidity ($1.6B) and reduced leverage to 3.4x .
Narrative turning points for stock catalysts: accelerated capital deployment with $2B closed or in closing in Q2, declining office exposure (21% U.S. office), and continued impaired loan resolutions; management reiterated balance sheet optionality and lender support, positioning BXMT to capitalize on resilient sectors (multifamily, industrial, self-storage) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Portfolio turnover and credit improvement: $1.8B repayments (86% office), 95% performing portfolio, and $0.4B impaired resolutions executed above aggregate carrying value; total resolutions since Q3 2024 reached $1.5B, cutting impaired balance by 58% and supporting book value .
Capital markets execution: issued a $1.0B reinvesting CLO, reduced debt-to-equity to 3.4x, and maintained $1.6B liquidity; management emphasized match-funded, non-mark-to-market financing and fully hedged FX exposure .
Strategic origination focus: $1.6B originations in Q1 with 90% concentrated in multifamily and cross-collateralized industrial/self-storage portfolios, targeting ~900bps levered return over base rates with ~64% avg. LTV .
- CEO: “We took a big step forward… with $1.8 billion of repayments… and $1.6 billion of new investments, our highest level of quarterly originations in more than 2 years.” .

What Went Wrong

Near-term earnings headwinds: timing mismatch between repayment inflows (avg. ~2 weeks into quarter) and redeployment (avg. ~8 weeks), shrinking average portfolio size by ~$1B vs 3/31 balance and pressuring Distributable Earnings .
Drag from non-earning impaired assets: impaired loans at $970M (~5% of portfolio) imposed ~$0.07 per share interest expense burden in Q1; although resolutions are progressing, residual drag persists .
Hospitality watchpoints and macro volatility: management flagged hospitality as most cyclical and an area of monitoring; tariffs may widen spreads and raise construction/value-add costs, reinforcing preference for lighter transition business plans .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Total Net Revenues ($USD)	$111.95M	$114.45M	$126.95M
GAAP EPS ($)	($0.32)	$0.21	$0.00
Distributable EPS ($)	$0.39	($1.25)	$0.17
Distributable EPS prior to charge-offs ($)	$0.49	$0.44	$0.42
Dividend per Share ($)	$0.47	$0.47	$0.47

KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Portfolio Performing (%)	93%	93%	95%
Impaired Loan Resolutions ($)	$0.6B closed or in closing post-Q3	$1.1B Q4; ~50% of Q3 balance	$0.4B Q1; $1.5B since Q3’24; 58% decline from peak
Originations ($)	$0.094B closed; $0.5B in closing	$0.4B 2024	$1.6B Q1; $2.0B closed or in closing post quarter-end
Repayments ($)	$1.8B Q3	$5.2B FY 2024	$1.8B Q1 (86% office)
Office Exposure	26% US office (Q3 portfolio mix chart)	Net office exposure reduced 28% YoY	21% U.S. office; 29% total office
Book Value per Share ($)	$22.17	$21.87	$21.42
CECL Reserves (%) of Principal	CECL per share $5.89	$0.7B CECL; net reversal $32M	3.9% of principal; $25M net asset-specific reserve reduction QoQ
Liquidity ($)	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.6B
Debt-to-Equity (x)	3.8x	3.5x	3.4x

Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global)

Metric (Q1 2025)	Consensus	Actual	Beat/Miss
Primary EPS ($)	0.28*	0.17*	Miss*
Revenue ($)	107.23M*	77.35M*	Miss*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*. Management reported total net revenues of $126.95M for Q1 (company definition), which differs from S&P’s revenue definition .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Dividend per Share	Q1 2025	$0.47 (Q4 level)	$0.47 announced for Q1	Maintained
Portfolio Growth Commentary	2025	“Grow portfolio toward ~$20B” (prior quarter commentary)	Reiterated pursuit with $2B in closing; underinvested near-term	Maintained directional
Origination Focus	2025	Emphasis on multifamily/industrial/self-storage	90% of activity in resilient profiles; ~64% avg. LTV; ~+900bps levered spread	Maintained emphasis
Capital Structure	2025	Termed corporate debt; target lower leverage	Issued $1.0B reinvesting CLO; DE at 3.4x; strong liquidity	Improved optionality

No formal quantitative revenue/expense/margin guidance was issued; management provided qualitative trajectory on portfolio growth, resolutions, and financing.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024 & Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Portfolio Turnover	Q3: $1.8B repayments; increasing originations pipeline Q4: $5.2B FY repayments; $2.0B+ Q1’25 in closing	$1.8B repayments (86% office); $1.6B originations; $2.0B closed/in closing	Improving
Impaired Loan Resolutions	Q3: $0.6B closed/closing post-Q3 Q4: $1.1B; ~50% resolved; $32M CECL reversal	$0.4B Q1; $1.5B since Q3; executed above carrying; 58% decline from peak	Continuing progress
Office Exposure	Q3: 26% US office; challenges concentrated Q4: net office exposure down 28% YoY	U.S. office 21%; total office 29%; 1.6B office repayments	De-risking
Capital Markets (CLO/Facilities)	Q3: diversified, non-MTM, laddered maturities Q4: extended corporate debt, 3.5x DE	$1B CLO with 30-month reinvest; 3.4x DE; banks supportive; 14 facility lenders	Strengthening
Macro/Tariffs & Spreads	Q3/Q4: cautious on macro; pipelines expanding	Tariffs widen spreads modestly (10–20 bps) offset by financing; volatility creates opportunity	Manageable
Sector Positioning	Q3/Q4: favor multifamily/industrial; cautious office	90% new activity in multifamily/industrial/self-storage; net lease strategy commenced (27 properties)	Higher-quality mix
International Exposure	Q3: 36–38% Europe/Australia	~41% international; management comfortable with Europe (relative value, lower leverage)	Stable
Hospitality Watchpoints	Q3/Q4: performance resilient; monitor	Hospitality most cyclical; U.S. hospitality 6.5% portfolio; monitoring demand/currency	Neutral to cautious

Management Commentary

CEO on strategic drivers: “BXMT's forward trajectory is propelled by three key drivers: portfolio turnover… resolution of impaired loans; and optimization of our balance sheet.”
CFO on earnings headwinds: “Our average portfolio size was nearly $1 billion lower than our 3/31 balance… timing headwinds… will shift to tailwinds in 2Q… The second earnings headwind is the drag from… non-earning assets.”
CEO on sector focus: “90% is backed by multifamily… industrial and storage… attractive levered return of 900 bps over base rates on average… 64% average LTV.”
CFO on capital markets: “We issued a $1 billion CLO… first with a 30-month reinvestment feature… debt-to-equity declined to 3.4x… liquidity of $1.6 billion.”
CEO on resolutions: “$400 million of resolutions closed this quarter… $1.5 billion in the last 6 months at a premium to aggregate carrying value… impaired loan balance reduced by 58% from the peak.”

Q&A Highlights

Risk-rated “4” loan path: non-modified 4-rated office now ~$500M (down from ~$1B); active modifications and diminishing cusp assets .
Origination pipeline and growth: aiming to grow toward ~$20B loan book; $2B in closing; repayments tracking despite volatility .
Repo/credit facilities: banks desire to grow credit facility exposure; multiple competitive quotes; new facilities in closing .
Spreads and financing costs: asset-side spreads widened 10–20 bps post volatility; financing spreads similarly; platform optionality mitigates .
Resolution cadence: ~$200M in closing across two assets; REO is ~3% of portfolio; plan to maximize value over time with potential near-term exits on some assets .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 vs S&P consensus: EPS $0.17 vs $0.28 (miss); revenue $77.35M vs $107.23M (miss). Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Company-reported total net revenues rose sequentially to $126.95M, with management citing timing of repayments vs redeployment and non-earning impaired assets as primary drivers of the EPS shortfall .
Forward quarters: S&P consensus EPS for Q3/Q4 2025 at ~$0.27/$0.25, with estimates supported by expectations of improved deployment and resolution tailwinds*. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term earnings trough dynamics: earnings power is temporarily suppressed by timing and non-earning assets; management expects redeployment tailwinds in Q2 alongside continued resolutions .
De-risking in action: office exposure is falling and portfolio performance improved to 95% performing, with $1.5B impaired resolutions since Q3’24 executed above carrying values supporting book value .
Capital structure optionality: $1.0B reinvesting CLO enhances flexibility to fund originations; 3.4x DE and $1.6B liquidity provide dry powder in a volatile macro .
Attractive origination mix: 90% in multifamily/industrial/self-storage, ~64% LTVs, ~900bps levered spreads over base rates—favorable return/risk setup .
Watch hospitality and macro/tariffs: spreads widened modestly; management is monitoring hospitality cyclicality and construction/value-add cost pressures, favoring lighter-transition business plans .
Estimate trajectories: Street likely to recalibrate models for timing/drag dynamics; upside to EPS as non-earning assets convert or are redeployed and originations ramp*. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Trading implications: narrative is improving (resolutions, originations, CLO optionality); catalysts include additional resolution announcements, CLO/financing activity, and pipeline conversions; downside risks include macro shocks and hospitality softness .

BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (BXMT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary