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BOYD GAMING CORP (BYD)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • BYD delivered a clean top-line and EPS beat on Q3 2025: revenue $1.004B vs $961M YoY and Adjusted EPS $1.72 vs $1.52 YoY; GAAP EPS of $17.81 was inflated by a ~$1.4B after‑tax gain on the FanDuel stake sale . Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue and EPS came in above, while EBITDA was in line to slightly below on SPGI’s EBITDA basis (see tables) (Values retrieved from S&P Global).*
  • Segment mix: broad-based gaming strength across all three property segments; Midwest & South posted its best third‑quarter revenue and Adjusted EBITDAR in three years; Las Vegas Locals saw gaming growth but continued destination softness at the Orleans weighed on results .
  • Capital allocation: $175M returned to shareholders in Q3 (dividends + $160M buybacks); leverage fell to ~1.5x post FanDuel proceeds, with $319M cash and $1.9B total debt at 9/30/25 .
  • Guidance/tone: Online segment 2025 EBITDA guidance raised to $60M; 2026 view ~$30M reiterated; 2025 capex ~ $600M; Q4 commentary called out negligible Tunica closure impact and breakeven Norfolk temporary opening, with stable Managed & Other .
  • Potential stock catalysts: continued core/retail customer strength and M&S outperformance; execution on $150M/quarter buyback; clarity on destination demand at Orleans; and progress on high‑return projects (Suncoast/Orleans renovations, Ameristar St. Charles expansion, Cadence Crossing) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Core and retail strength drove “healthy gaming revenue growth across all three of our property operating segments,” with “margins…consistent with the prior year at 37%” excluding FanDuel effects .
    • Midwest & South achieved its “strongest third‑quarter revenue and EBITDA performance in three years,” with margins >37% on disciplined marketing and costs .
    • Capital returns and balance sheet: $160M in buybacks (1.9M shares at $84.05) plus $0.18 dividend ($15M); leverage reduced to ~1.5x (lease‑adjusted ~2.0x) following the FanDuel sale .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Destination weakness in Las Vegas—concentrated at the Orleans—offset Locals gaming growth; management said Orleans accounted for the segment’s EBITDA decline in Q3 .
    • Online segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell YoY (Q3 2025 $9.4M vs $26.0M in Q3 2024) given FanDuel market‑access fee changes; company-wide Adjusted EBITDAR also down YoY ($322M vs $337M) .
    • Downtown Las Vegas faced lower destination business and reduced Fremont Street pedestrian traffic, limiting growth despite Hawaiian core strength .

Financial Results

Headline metrics (chronological: Q3 2024 → Q2 2025 → Q3 2025)

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)961.2 1,034.0 1,004.4
Adjusted EBITDAR ($USD Millions)336.6 357.9 321.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)308.5 329.4 293.2
Adjusted EPS ($)1.52 1.87 1.72
GAAP EPS ($)1.43 1.84 17.81

Q3 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus (SPGI)*

MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)1,004.4 875.1*
Primary EPS ($)1.72 1.625*
EBITDA (SPGI basis) ($USD Millions)280.5*280.6*
  • Consensus source: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Notes: BYD reports Adjusted EBITDAR/Adjusted EBITDA; SPGI tracks EBITDA on a standardized basis, which may differ from company-adjusted definitions . Results also reflect lower market-access fees post-FanDuel transaction .

Segment revenues and Adjusted EBITDAR (YoY comparison)

SegmentRevenue Q3 2024 ($M)Revenue Q3 2025 ($M)Adj. EBITDAR Q3 2024 ($M)Adj. EBITDAR Q3 2025 ($M)
Las Vegas Locals211.9 210.8 96.4 92.1
Downtown Las Vegas53.3 53.2 16.5 16.1
Midwest & South522.4 538.9 196.9 201.6
Online141.3 165.6 26.0 9.4
Managed & Other32.4 35.8 22.5 26.3
Total961.2 1,004.4 336.6 321.8

Selected KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Share repurchases ($M)105 160
Dividend per share ($)0.18 0.18
Cash and Equivalents ($M)320.1 319.1
Total Debt ($B)3.6 1.9
Leverage (Gross, x)~2.8x at Q2 end ~1.5x at Q3 end

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Online segment EBITDAFY 2025$50–55M (Q2 update) $60M Raised
Online segment EBITDAFY 2026~$30M (Q2 update) ~$30M Maintained
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$600–$650M (range) ~ $600M Narrowed/maintained around ~$600M
Share repurchasesOngoing~$150M/quarter (introduced in Q2) Maintain ~$150M/quarter Maintained
Tunica closure impactQ4 2025N/ANegligible; no model change New info
Norfolk transitional casinoQ4 2025 / 2026N/ABreakeven near term New info
Tax payment on FanDuel saleQ1 2026N/AExpected in Q1 2026 New info
Managed & Other run-rateQ4 2025N/AStable vs prior quarters; step‑up after early‑2026 slot expansion at Sky River New info

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Core vs retail demandQ1: Core up; retail flat; downtown benefited from Hawaiian traffic . Q2: Core strong; retail improving, especially unrated .Core continued to grow; retail improved further across segments .Improving retail alongside resilient core
Las Vegas destination softness (Orleans)Q1: Orleans faced competitive pressure; share losses narrowing . Q2: Strip softness impacting destination; locals market otherwise resilient .Destination business remained soft; Orleans drove LV Locals EBITDA decline; 90‑day bookings improving but still soft .Softness persists; early booking improvement
Midwest & South strengthQ1: Growth despite weather/leap year . Q2: Highest quarterly revenue/EBITDAR in ~3 years .Best third‑quarter in three years; margins >37% .Sustained outperformance
Online / FanDuel economicsQ1: Highlighted value of 5% FanDuel stake . Q2: Announced $1.755B sale; 2025 online EBITDA $50–55M; 2026 ~$30M .Sale completed; leverage to ~1.5x; 2025 online EBITDA raised to $60M; 2026 ~$30M .Monetization complete; guidance raised for 2025
Capital returnsQ1: $100M/quarter target; opportunistic above; $328M repurchased in Q1 . Q2: Increased to $150M/quarter .Maintain ~$150M/quarter buybacks plus dividend; $637M YTD returns .Higher run-rate sustained
Capex and project pipelineQ1: $600–$650M; Suncoast/Orleans rooms; Ameristar St. Charles; Cadence Crossing; Norfolk . Q2: Same range; project progress .~$600M FY25; Ameristar St. Charles expansion complete; Suncoast renovations ongoing; Orleans rooms to begin; Cadence Crossing on track .Execution progressing
Macro/policyQ1: Tariff mitigation plans; stable consumer . Q2: More comfortable on tariffs; locals wage growth 6% .Benefit expected from tax bill (tips/overtime/seniors) but unquantified; cyber event had no operational impact .Policy tailwinds; minimal disruption

Management Commentary

  • “The third quarter was another quarter of growth… revenues once again exceeding $1 billion, while EBITDA was $322 million… margins were consistent with the prior year at 37%” .
  • “Midwest & South segment achieved its strongest third quarter… revenues rose 3% to $539 million, while EBITDA grew to $202 million… Operating margins once again exceeded 37%” .
  • “We repurchased $160 million in stock… Actual shares outstanding at the end of the quarter were 78.6 million… leverage… declined… to 1.5 times at the end of the third quarter” .
  • “Given current trends, we are increasing our [Online] guidance to $60 million in EBITDA for this year. For 2026, we expect approximately $30 million” .
  • “90‑day booking results certainly look better than… three months ago… still soft” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Las Vegas dynamics: Management attributed Las Vegas softness to destination business centered at the Orleans; ex‑Orleans, LV Locals saw growth in gaming revenues, overall revenues, EBITDA and consistent margins; 90‑day bookings improved sequentially though remain soft .
  • Promotional environment: Competitors stepped up in some markets, but BYD remained disciplined; margins stayed consistent; incremental marketing was targeted at destination softness rather than competitive response .
  • Capital structure and returns: Optimal leverage targeted around ~2.5x over time, but no urgency to lever up from ~1.5x; intent to maintain ~$150M/quarter repurchases plus dividend .
  • Near‑term 4Q modeling: Tunica closure negligible; Norfolk temporary breakeven; Managed & Other steady; tax payment on the FanDuel sale expected in Q1 2026; cyber event had no operational impact .
  • Missouri sports betting: BYD’s partnership with Fanatics in MO acknowledged; potential expansion TBD .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025: Revenue $875.1M*, Primary EPS $1.625*, EBITDA (SPGI basis) $280.6M*. Actuals: Revenue $1,004.4M (beat), Adjusted/Primary EPS $1.72 (beat), EBITDA (SPGI basis) $280.5M (in line/slightly below)* .
  • Takeaways: Revenue upside was broad-based (gaming across segments), while company‑defined Adjusted EBITDAR was below prior year due to FanDuel market‑access fee changes; Online guidance raised to $60M supports upward estimate revisions for 2025 Online EBITDA.* (Values retrieved from S&P Global.)*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core customer and improving retail demand continue to underpin results; M&S outperformance supports the near‑term earnings base as Las Vegas destination demand normalizes .
  • Online guidance raised to $60M EBITDA for 2025 with 2026 ~$30M indicates a more resilient digital earnings contribution post FanDuel restructuring .
  • With leverage ~1.5x and a stated $150M/quarter buyback cadence, capital returns should remain a steady support to EPS and share count reduction .
  • Watch the Orleans: management flagged it as the locus of destination softness; improving 90‑day bookings could be a leading indicator into Q4/Q1 .
  • Project execution (Suncoast/Orleans renovations, Ameristar St. Charles expansion, Cadence Crossing) offers visible ROI and medium‑term growth catalysts .
  • Limited Q4 noise expected: Tunica negligible, Norfolk temporary breakeven, Managed & Other steady; tax cash outflow in Q1 2026 for FanDuel proceeds should be planned for in models .
  • Policy tailwinds (tips/overtime/seniors deductions) and local wage growth support Locals demand into 2026; management has not quantified the benefit yet .

Footnotes:
*Consensus and EBITDA (SPGI basis) values retrieved from S&P Global.