Executive Summary

Q2 2025 EPS of $1.96 and net income of $4.0B on revenue of $21.7B; EPS beat S&P Global consensus ($1.59) while SPGI revenue consensus ($20.96B) suggests a miss vs its definition; company-reported revenue grew 8% YoY to $21.7B. Bold drivers: Markets +16%, Wealth +20%, Banking +18% YoY; Services remains “crown jewel” .
Services revenue up 8% YoY to $5.1B; Markets had its best Q2 since 2020 with record Equities; Banking up 18% YoY on advisory and ECM; USPB up 6% YoY with Branded Cards strength and lower cost of credit; Wealth up 20% on fee growth and one-off gain on alternatives platform sale .
Capital return: ~$3.1B to shareholders (payout ratio 82%); CET1 13.5% and SLR 5.5%; dividend increased to $0.60/share beginning Q3 2025; buybacks expected at least $4B in Q3 under $20B program—potential near-term stock support .
Guidance: Full-year revenue now expected near top of range (~$84B); NII ex-Markets up closer to 4%; 2025 expenses about $53.4B (flexes with revenue); card NCL guidance narrowed; transformation spend to trend down in 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Services momentum: “Revenue up 8%, Services continues to show why this high-return business is our crown jewel” (CEO); TTS gained share and Securities Services grew on higher AUC/AUA .
Markets strength: Best Q2 since 2020; record prime balances in Equities; Fixed Income up 20% on rates/currencies client activity and financing .
Capital return and execution: ~$3.1B returned; CET1 13.5%; dividend raised to $0.60; buybacks guided at least $4B in Q3; ROTCE 8.7% with positive operating leverage firm-wide .

What Went Wrong

Higher cost of credit: Total cost of credit rose to $2.9B (+16% YoY) driven by net ACL build (macros, transfer risk—Russia dividends, portfolio changes) despite lower USPB card net losses .
All Other (managed basis) pressure: Revenues down 14% YoY; net loss widened to $(567)M on higher severance and transformation investments and Banamex seasoning .
USPB non-interest revenue down 30% on higher partner payment accruals in Retail Services; Branded Cards net credit losses up with loan growth .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($B)	$19.581	$21.596	$21.668
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.34	$1.96	$1.96
Net Income ($B)	$2.856	$4.064	$4.019
RoTCE (%)	6.1%	9.1%	8.7%
Efficiency Ratio (%)	67.3%	62.2%	62.7%
CET1 Ratio (%)	13.6%	13.4%	13.5%

Segment revenues ($USD Millions):

Segment	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Services	5,175	4,889	5,062
Markets	4,576	5,986	5,879
Banking	1,241	1,952	1,921
Wealth	2,003	2,096	2,166
US Personal Banking	5,232	5,228	5,119

Key KPIs:

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Book Value/Share ($)	101.62	103.90	106.94
Tangible BV/Share ($)	89.34	91.52	94.16
EOP Loans ($B)	694.5	702.1	725.3
EOP Deposits ($B)	1,284.5	1,316.4	1,357.7
SLR (%)	5.8	5.8	5.5
US Credit Card Spend ($B)	161	144	159
New US Credit Card Accts (000s)	3,520	2,840	3,255

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenue	FY 2025	Prior range (undisclosed)	~$84B; higher end of range	Raised
NII ex-Markets	FY 2025	Prior outlook (undisclosed)	Up closer to 4%	Raised
Total Expenses	FY 2025	Prior outlook (undisclosed)	~$53.4B; flexes with revenue	Maintained/clarified
Branded Cards NCL	FY 2025	Broad range earlier	3.5%–4.0%	Narrowed
Retail Services NCL	FY 2025	Broad range earlier	5.75%–6.25%	Narrowed
Share Repurchases	Q3 2025	Not specified	≥$4B in Q3 under $20B plan	Raised near-term pace
Common Dividend	Q3 2025 onward	Prior rate (undisclosed)	$0.60 per share	Increased

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
AI/Transformation	2024: reorg concluded; transformation investments; 2025 momentum . Q1: productivity, stranded cost reductions .	Programs at/near target; streamlining/automation; AI aiding data quality; transformation expenses to decrease in 2026 .	Improving execution
Stablecoins/Tokenization	Not highlighted in prior releases.	Citi Token Services live in 4 markets; billions processed; focus on reserves, on/off ramps, tokenized deposits & custody; competitive advantage in cross-border .	Rising strategic focus
Macro/Tariffs	2024: macro uncertainty narrative .	Expect goods prices uptick as tariffs take effect; cautious client capex/hiring; resilient US consumer .	Cautious but constructive
Product/Prime Services	Q4: Equities up; prime balances +23% .	Record prime balances; equities best Q2 ever; FI rates/currencies strong .	Strong momentum
Capital/SCB	Q4: $20B buyback authorized .	CET1 13.5%; SCB expected to decline; mgmt buffer under review; ≥$4B Q3 buybacks .	Increasing flexibility
USPB Credit	Q4: higher NCLs with vintages maturing . Q1: lower cost of credit; ACL release .	NCL trends improving; guided ranges; partner accruals pressured Retail Services .	Stabilizing/normalizing
Regulatory/Consent Orders	Ongoing focus .	Many programs at target state; sustainability/validation in process; expenses decline as work completes .	Progressing

Management Commentary

“We reported another very good quarter… Services continues to show why this high-return business is our crown jewel… Markets had its best second quarter performance since 2020… Banking revenues were up 18%… Wealth revenues were up 20%… In U.S. Personal Banking, we saw good growth in Branded Cards” (CEO Jane Fraser) .
“We returned $3 billion in capital… $2 billion in share repurchases… next year’s 10–11% ROTCE target is a waypoint, not a destination” (CEO) .
“We ended the quarter at a common equity tier one capital ratio of 13.5%… pleased with stress test results… increased dividend to $0.60 per share beginning in the third quarter” (CEO/CFO) .
“We now expect to be at the higher end of our full-year revenue range, around $84 billion… expenses around $53.4 billion… expect to buy back at least $4 billion this quarter” (CFO Mark Mason) .

Q&A Highlights

ROTCE path: 10–11% in 2026 is a waypoint; longer-term upside driven by revenue momentum, expense discipline (severance/transformation spend trends down), capital efficiency .
Capital & SCB: Standardized CET1 remains binding; SCB expected to decline; management buffer reviewed regularly; buybacks accelerated given valuation below book .
Digital assets: Citi Token Services live; strategy spans reserves, on/off ramps, potential Citi stablecoin, tokenized deposits, custody—cross-border advantage for clients .
USPB credit: Delinquency/roll rates trending consistent with pre-COVID seasonality; confidence in NCL guidance ranges amid affluent skew and steady payment behavior .
Transformation costs: ~$3B in 2024, “meaningful” increase in 2025, trending down in 2026; stranded costs being reduced with ~$300M/quarter still to drive out .

Estimates Context

Metric	Consensus (SPGI)	Actual (SPGI)	Outcome
Primary EPS Consensus Mean*	$1.591	$2.041	Beat
Revenue Consensus Mean* ($)	$20,961,642,890	$19,351,000,000	Miss

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: Company-reported “Total revenues, net of interest expense” were $21.668B for Q2 2025, up 8% YoY; differences vs SPGI “revenue” likely reflect definitional/aggregation differences between reporting frameworks .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Broad-based strength across Services, Markets, Banking, Wealth and USPB drove EPS beat; sustained positive operating leverage supports near-term multiple resilience .
Capital return accelerating (≥$4B buybacks in Q3, $0.60 dividend) with CET1 at 13.5%; potential stock support from enhanced payout and SCB relief .
Credit normalization manageable: USPB NCL ranges refined; firm-wide ACL build tied to macro and transfer risk—less tied to consumer deterioration .
Strategic optionality in digital assets: Tokenized deposits and Citi Token Services could enhance Services’ moat and fee growth; watch for commercialization milestones .
FY 2025 outlook firmer: revenue at high end (~$84B), NII ex-Markets up closer to 4%, expenses ~$53.4B—improving visibility into earnings trajectory .
Banking pipeline healthy (advisory/ECM); Markets momentum (record prime balances) continues—supports episodic upside and fee mix .
Medium-term thesis: Execution on transformation (expense down in 2026), stranded cost removal, and capital efficiency should drive ROTCE toward/above waypoint, narrowing valuation gap to peers .

CITIGROUP INC (C)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary