Cable One - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 revenue declined 6.0% year over year to $387.2M as residential data ARPU remained stable sequentially but fell 5.0% YoY; Adjusted EBITDA was $211.0M with a 54.5% margin, down 7.0% YoY.
• Reported net loss of $105.2M vs. $103.5M net income in Q4 2023 was driven by non‑cash items tied to MBI (unfavorable option revaluation and an investment impairment), partially offset by a $71.5M gain on the MBI amendment; free cash flow (Adj. EBITDA – capex) rose 25% YoY to $139.1M on capex reduction.
• Residential data ARPU stabilized sequentially to $79.72 (+$0.11 q/q) as management leaned on targeted pricing, Intelligent WiFi/Secure add‑ons, and AutoPayPlus; business data revenue grew 2.3% YoY.
• Management set 2025 capex to “trend toward the low $200s,” highlighted cap structure flexibility after upsizing the revolver to $1.25B, and quantified an estimated $410–$550M call/put purchase price for the remaining MBI stake with ~$845–$895M of MBI net debt at consolidation (earliest Oct 1, 2026).
• Consensus (S&P Global) estimates were unavailable at time of writing due to provider rate limits; no beat/miss analysis versus Street can be provided. Values from S&P Global were unavailable at time of request.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Free cash flow inflected: Adjusted EBITDA less capex increased 25% YoY to $139.1M on a 38% YoY capex reduction; operating cash flow rose to $167.6M (+10.5% YoY).
• Sequential ARPU stabilization and product mix: Residential data ARPU ticked up $0.11 q/q to $79.72, supported by higher gig sell‑in, Intelligent WiFi/Secure attach, promo roll‑offs, and AutoPayPlus; management expects broadband revenue growth to be driven by unit growth and ARPU expansion as appropriate.
• Balance sheet flexibility and visibility on MBI: Revolver upsized to $1.25B; amended MBI agreement improved flexibility and reduced expected peak leverage; estimated remaining purchase price $410–$550M and MBI net debt $845–$895M at consolidation.

Management quotes:

• “ARPU…stabilized during the second half of 2024…our residential data customer base increased by approximately 2,200 [ex‑ACP and a small acquisition]”.
• “AI is making a difference…we launched an AI model…review 100% of call center contacts in minutes…[and] a churn propensity model…to improve the accuracy of finding customers most likely to churn”.
• “Our total capital expenditures will trend towards the low [200s] for 2025”.

What Went Wrong

• Top‑line pressure: Revenue down 6.0% YoY on a 5.4% decline in residential data revenue (ARPU -5.0%, subscriber reductions tied to ACP expiration) and a 14.2% decline in residential video; Adjusted EBITDA down 7.0% YoY.
• Non‑cash hits drove net loss: $195.7M unfavorable MBI option revaluation and $111.7M non‑cash MBI impairment overshadowed a $71.5M gain from the MBI amendment; net margin -27.2% vs. 25.1% LY.
• Unit trends mixed: Residential data PSUs and total PSUs declined YoY; SG&A up 8.2% YoY (software, system implementation, rebranding/marketing) as CABO invests for growth.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Cable One Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, again, press star one. Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to Jordan Morkert, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Jordan Morkert (VP of Investor Relations)

Good afternoon, and welcome to Cable One's fourth quarter and year-in 2024 earnings call. We're glad to have you join us today. Before we proceed, I would like to remind you that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements relating to future events that involve risks and uncertainties, including statements regarding future broadband revenue and customer growth, future cash flow, future ARPU, future levels of competition, growth in business data services, including carrier, wholesale, and enterprise market segments, the future capabilities of our network, anticipated benefits from AI, the timing and anticipated benefits of our unified billing system migration, capital expenditures, the purchase price payable if the MBI call or put option is exercised, and MBI's anticipated indebtedness, our ability and sources of capital to fund the MBI call or put price, anticipated tax synergies, and our future financial performance, capital allocation policy, leverage ratios, and financing plans.

You can find factors that could cause Cable One's actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements discussed during today's call, in today's earnings release, and in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K. Cable One is under no obligation and expressly disclaims any obligation, except as required by law, to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Additionally, today's remarks will include a discussion of certain financial measures that are not presented in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. When we refer to Free Cash Flow during today's call, we mean Adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditures as defined in our earnings release. Reconciliations of Non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release or on our website at ir.cableone.net.

Joining me on today's call is our President and CEO, Julie Laulis, and Todd Koetje, our CFO. With that, let me turn the call over to Julie.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

Thank you, Jordan, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for today's call. 2024 bore the first fruits of a phased plan that lays the groundwork for long-term balanced broadband growth. We kept residential subscribers relatively flat when excluding customer losses from the expiration of the Affordable Connectivity Program and stabilized residential ARPU during the back half of the year, as we indicated would happen.

Continued rising demand across our carrier, enterprise, and wholesale segments also led to business broadband revenue growth. Our resulting Free Cash Flow grew, consistent with our prior statements, and we also took significant steps to increase our financial flexibility in order to meet future obligations, especially those related to the potential purchase of the remainder of MBI, and we did all this in an environment of increasing competition.

We also substantially completed rebranding the companies we've acquired in recent years, converted many of our customers to a unified billing system, and continue to implement several best-in-class technology platforms to accelerate our digital transformation and improve operational efficiency. Additionally, we reshaped our leadership team by adding new talent to our core of experienced, proven leaders.

Building on what I said during our last earnings call, we are confident that the hard work done in 2024 is setting a foundation that will help us grow broadband revenue and cash flow over the long term. Before Todd reviews our financial performance and the recent steps we've taken to strengthen our long-term financial outlook, I'd like to provide deeper insight into our approach to broadband growth, emphasize the strength of our network, and tell you about strategic initiatives we have undertaken.

I want to reiterate that we are executing a phased plan for long-term growth and express my confidence that our steadfast, intentional approach will help us to continue to successfully navigate the competitive landscape while delivering a differentiated value proposition to our customers and shareholders. Turning to residential broadband growth, in the latter half of 2024, we concentrated on strengthening our customer acquisition engine by investing in the right people, platforms, and processes.

As we move into 2025, broadband revenue growth remains our top priority. Our approach will be market and segment-specific, driving unit growth and ARPU expansion where appropriate, based on a variety of factors. As mentioned, our fourth quarter ARPU remained stable on a sequential basis. Notably, gig sell-in rose 10% sequentially in the last quarter.

ARPU benefited from this higher sell-in, as well as an increase in the sales of our Intelligent Wi-Fi product, our SecurePlus product, which provides customers enhanced cybersecurity protection, promotional rolloffs, and the loss of lower ARPU ACP customers, as well as the continued successful implementation of our AutoPayPlus program.

As it relates to units, we remain focused on growing and retaining our premium customers through a variety of personalized products and programs that will continue to provide best-in-class reliability along with great customer experience.

For our value-conscious customers, our Pay-As-You-Go product continues to grow nicely. This product provides greater value than cell phone internet, as it is easy to set up, has unlimited data even during busy times, and guaranteed speeds. Last quarter, over 30% of our Pay-As-You-Go customers signed up for speeds of 500 megs or greater, showing the need for such guaranteed speeds.

I would like to take a minute to talk specifically about cell phone internet. We have reached the point where cell phone internet is available throughout almost all of our footprint, but this does not worry us. Our focus is on ensuring those weighing cell phone internet as an option choose a more reliable wireline option, ours.

Our customers have told us what they find most important when looking for internet: unlimited access to data without the threat of being throttled, a variety of guaranteed speeds to meet their needs, and better reliability. Our product offers these key advantages, and we plan to target this customer segment in a way that expands our reach without cannibalizing our existing base. We are confident that we can and will win these customers.

Business broadband also continues to be an important driver of our long-term growth strategy, with revenue up 2.6% year-over-year. Looking ahead to 2025, we are confident about the long-term growth of business data services. We expect to see strong continued growth in our carrier, enterprise, and wholesale segments, with continued focus on maximizing revenue growth in our SMB market as well.

Turning to competitive dynamics, we continue to believe that new competition from third-party overbuilders is moderating in our markets. While it is true that incumbent LECs continue to overbuild themselves with new fiber deployments in some of our markets, we have competed effectively against them for a long time and believe we will be able to do so going forward.

We also believe that incumbent fiber builds reduce the chance of a new third party entering a given market, maintaining a two-party market where the long-term economics are favorable to us. We will continue to conduct and capitalize on learnings from trials in various markets so that we can compete effectively on our terms across our entire footprint.

Turning to our network, I'd like to share more detail around why we believe it will be a long-term differentiator for Cable One. We've traditionally talked about our network in terms of reliability and capacity. While both remain critical, they are now baseline expectations. Customers expect reliability, and they assume we will have the capacity to meet their needs.

To differentiate ourselves in today's competitive landscape, we have been moving beyond these basics and focusing on how customers experience our network, remembering always that when we're serving our customers, we're also serving our neighbors. This means shifting from purely technical metrics to understanding how our services enhance our customers' lives, and our continued emphasis on improving in-home experience is central to this strategy.

As one example, accelerated deployment of our Intelligent Wi-Fi powered by eero delivers an exceptional customer experience. We see an increase in retention from customers with this service because of the superior internet service they receive. Additionally, our customer-facing app offers valuable features like parental controls, enhanced security, and self-service troubleshooting, empowering users to manage their in-home network seamlessly.

Beyond these visible benefits, our intelligent network tools allow us to collect real-time customer performance data, enabling us to not only measure when the network is performing well, but also predict and proactively address potential issues before they impact the customer. This is a significant shift in how we deliver service, moving from reactive to proactive support, and is a key element of improving the overall customer experience and network resiliency.

These tools help us to reduce churn, lower expenses, and create a competitive advantage as we attract and retain customers. Given how technology and customer expectations are evolving, questions like "How will you compete with fiber?" miss the point. Not only is our network powered by fiber, but we already provide more speed and capacity than most customers require today.

However, we fully understand that data demands will likely have step function growth over time, so our future investments will focus on two areas to meet their needs: expanding capacity to stay ahead of the demand curve and enhancing the intelligence of our network. By integrating advanced data-driven insights and predictive capabilities, we're building a network that's not just reliable, but adaptive, anticipating customer needs and leading to long-term growth in a highly capital-efficient way.

Whether through our investments in multi-gig capabilities, Intelligent Wi-Fi, or cybersecurity solutions, the reality is our network isn't just infrastructure. It's a catalyst for innovation, customer satisfaction, and business growth. Turning to our recent strategic initiatives, we have now migrated the acquired Fidelity, ValueNet, and Cable America operations onto our Unified Billing System, which will streamline operations for associates and improve the customer experience.

This will help us accelerate the use of tailored customer acquisition platforms and product launches for these portions of our customer base throughout 2025 and beyond. We expect to complete the migration of all other customers this year, which, as we have noted previously, will yield us several million dollars in annual savings going forward. We also substantially completed the rebranding of our Fidelity, Hargray, ValueNet, and Cable America operations.

Fourth quarter brand measurement surveys in our legacy markets show that our Sparklight brand achieves 100% needed awareness, and over 85% of Sparklight customers have a very positive perception of the brand, the strongest brand perception we have recorded. It is exciting to see Sparklight uniforms, trucks, and advertisements throughout our footprint. Moreover, consolidating all customers under a unified Sparklight brand supports growth by creating cost efficiencies and leveraging the strength of our well-established brand across our footprint.

During 2025, we're excited to start our first fiber instant-on multiple dwelling unit trial, which will enable customers to activate new HSD service with multi-gig symmetrical speeds in minutes. We look forward to carrying out this trial and believe we will be able to expand it throughout our MDU footprint.

Our data shows that customers on an Intelligent Wi-Fi network experience higher satisfaction and churn at a much lower rate. Thus, we have focused on increasing adoption of our Intelligent Wi-Fi solution powered by eero throughout our customer base. We also saw the number of customers subscribing to SecurePlus, our product offering advanced cybersecurity features across the home, increase by 25% in Q4 compared to Q3.

As we discussed last quarter, SecurePlus costs $8 per month, and we believe this, in addition to our Intelligent Wi-Fi deployment efforts, will enhance the customer experience and provide an additional tailwind for ARPU going forward. Transitioning to technological improvements, we're pleased to share that we are continuing to integrate AI into our business, enhancing customer experience, increasing operational efficiency, and helping us reduce churn.

Simply put, AI is making a difference in the way we do work every day. We launched an AI model in the fourth quarter, which allows us to review 100% of call center contacts in minutes, providing real-time feedback on customer sentiment that assists our agents in delivering superior customer service. We also launched a project management tool with automation and AI built into the platform that has allowed us to streamline projects and complete them faster by identifying and reducing redundancies and roadblocks.

Finally, we developed an internal AI tool, which created a churn propensity model for residential customers, allowing us to improve the accuracy of finding customers most likely to churn and lower costs by eliminating a third-party model we were previously utilizing. This tool also contains a customer lifetime value model, which has already helped us reduce customer losses in competitive markets.

Before turning it over to Todd, let me conclude by telling you that I am excited for our associates, customers, and shareholders in 2025. It reminds me of a sports team in the middle of a rebuild, where success might seem sudden to outsiders, but those inside the locker room know it's the result of countless hours spent building culture, refining skills, and sticking to the plan.

In the same way, the groundwork we've laid behind the scenes will start to show through in the form of smart, balanced, and sustainable growth. We'll keep pushing forward until we reach that goal. Todd will now provide a recap of our fourth quarter and full-year financial performance and further discuss our outlook for the future.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

Thanks, Julie. Before going through our 2024 full-year financials, I'd like to start by discussing some of the key figures from our fourth quarter results. For the fourth quarter of 2024, our total revenues were $387.2 million compared to $411.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, a decrease of 6% year-over-year. Residential data revenues decreased by 5.4%, while business data revenues increased by 2.3% year-over-year.

As previously discussed, residential data revenues were negatively impacted by the discontinuation of the Affordable Connectivity Program, which resulted in the loss of approximately 10,000 existing PSUs through the end of Q3. In addition, we also experienced above-average churn activity amongst the remaining ACP customer cohort in the early part of Q4.

Such losses do not take into account the further negative impact on lost ACP Connect opportunities when comparing Q4 of 2024 to Q4 of 2023, when we were more active in selling to ACP customers. Decrease in residential data revenues was also driven by ARPU of $79.72, declining 5% year-over-year. On a sequential basis, however, ARPU was up $0.11 from the third quarter. Net loss was $105.2 million for Q4 2024 compared to net income of $103.5 million in Q4 2023.

The net loss was driven primarily by various non-cash, non-operating charges associated with our investment in MBI. First, as in every quarter, we marked our MBI net option to market, which resulted in a non-cash loss. Second, as a result of the previously announced amendment to our MBI partnership, which I'll touch on later, we recognize a net gain associated with the new call and put options. Finally, as a result of our quarterly assessment for each of our equity investments, we identified an impairment of our MBI investment at year-end, which resulted in a non-cash impairment charge.

Collectively, these non-cash items related to MBI resulted in a $169.4 million net reduction to earnings. You can refer to our upcoming 10-K filing for additional details on these items. Adjusted EBITDA was $211 million, a decrease of 7% when compared to the prior year quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA margin was 54.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to 55.1% in Q4 of 2023. Capital expenditures totaled $71.9 million in Q4 compared to $115.6 million in the same quarter last year. During the fourth quarter of 2024, we invested $6.5 million of CapEx for new market expansion and $5.7 million for integration activities.

Adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditures was $139.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to $111.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, a $27.8 million, or 25% increase year-over-year. Now turning to our full-year results. Total revenues for 2024 were $1.58 billion, a decrease of 5.9% from 2023. Residential data revenues declined 5.5%, while business data revenues increased 2.6%. Residential data PSUs decreased by 5,500 during 2024, which includes approximately 10,000 ACP customers who disconnected as a result of the program ending.

Excluding ACP losses and customer gains from a small acquisition, PSUs increased by approximately 2,200 during the year. ARPU for residential data customers was $80.39 for 2024, a decrease of 4.9% from 2023. ARPU decreased during the first two quarters of the year because of targeted pricing and product strategies in specific markets to address select competitors, along with a renewed focus on the value-conscious customer segment, which generally has lower selling rates.

Residential data ARPU then stabilized during the second half of the year because of certain initiatives, including the implementation of AutoPayPlus, promotional roll-offs, the ramp-up of Intelligent Wi-Fi and SecurePlus deployments, and the continued selling of higher speed tiers as customer speed and data demands continued to increase. On the business data side, the 2.6% year-over-year increase in revenue was driven by a gain of over 1,400 PSUs.

A strong demand from high-value carrier, wholesale, and enterprise customers continues, partially offset by a 3.4% decrease in overall business services ARPU. Operating expenses were $416.8 million, or 26.4% of revenues in 2024, compared to $440.9 million, or 26.3% of revenues in the prior year.

The primary driver of the decrease in expense was a $32.8 million year-over-year drop in programming and franchise costs as lower-margin residential video customers continued to decline, partially offset by increases in software costs, network backbone costs, and rent expense. Selling, general, and administrative expenses were $366 million for 2024, compared to $354.7 million in the prior year.

SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 23.2% for 2024, compared to 21.1% for 2023, with the increase driven by software and system implementation costs that are expected to provide long-term efficiencies and significant investments in rebranding and marketing initiatives that are setting the foundation for long-term organic broadband revenue growth.

These increases were partially offset by a reduction in labor and other compensation-related costs due to organizational changes implemented during the second quarter of 2024. Net income was $14.5 million for 2024, compared to $224.6 million for 2023. 2024 included a combined $186.5 million non-cash and non-operating net loss associated with the MBI items previously discussed. Adjusted EBITDA was $854 million for 2024, compared to $916.9 million for 2023, a decrease of 6.9%. Our Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2024 was 54.1%, compared to 54.6% in the prior year.

Capital expenditures totaled $286.4 million for 2024, which equates to 33.5% of Adjusted EBITDA, compared to $371 million and 40.5% in the prior year. During 2024, we invested $30.6 million of CapEx for new market expansion and $17.7 million for integration activities. Our capital expenditures have trended downward in recent years, thanks to the meaningful investments we have already made in our network, specifically with regards to DOCSIS 4.0 network architecture.

The significant improvements to our network, driven by these investments, will allow us to be proactive in positioning for future growth and provide us with the confidence that our total capital expenditures will trend towards the low $300 million for 2025. Adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditures was $567.6 million for 2024, compared to $545.9 million for the prior year, a 4% increase driven by ongoing capital efficiencies.

As we've stated in the past, the four pillars of our balanced, conservative, and long-term capital allocation strategy remain intact, including building and enhancing our network infrastructure, pursuing organic growth opportunities as they arise, evaluating strategic investments and accretive acquisitions, and returning capital in the most efficient way possible, which consists primarily of accelerated debt repayments and a reduction in leverage.

In 2024, we distributed $67.9 million in dividends to shareholders and repaid $238.1 million of debt, of which $219.9 million represented voluntary early repayments. We also drew $175 million under our revolver in December in connection with the amendment of our MBI agreement, which I'll touch on shortly. As of December 31st, we had approximately $154 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand.

Our debt balance was approximately $3.6 billion, consisting of approximately $1.7 billion in term loans, $920 million in convertible notes, $650 million in unsecured notes, $313 million of revolver borrowings, and $4 million of finance lease liabilities. We also had $937 million available for additional borrowings under our $1.25 billion committed revolving credit facility that we successfully upsized by $250 million in Q4 of 2024.

For 2024, our weighted average cost of debt was 4.15%, with nearly 80% of our borrowings either fixed issuance or synthetically fixed at underlying base rates of less than 2.7% under long-term contracts, considerably mitigating our exposure to the prevailing rate environment. Our net leverage ratio on a last quarter annualized basis was 4.1 times, which, as I will detail a bit later, we believe will be our peak leverage, while our secured net leverage ratio was 2.2x.

Looking at our unconsolidated investments, in total, residential and business data customers grew by nearly 18,000, or 2% on a sequential basis in the fourth quarter, and nearly 97,000 customers, or 12%, for the full year 2024. This does not include the operations of Metronet, where we have a less significant investment. Annual subscriber growth in 2024 for these investments was 15% higher than 2023, and we continue to be very pleased with the ability of our partners to grow while providing best-in-class service.

Moreover, three of our existing investments, Metronet, Ziply, and CTI Towers, have been announced to be acquired by or merged into new entities, and we plan to monetize our investments in these partnerships with the proceeds to be utilized to pay down debt and reduce leverage.

We are grateful for the opportunity to partner with these proven operators and trusted financial partners, and we are very pleased with the investment returns we will be providing Cable One's shareholders. Finally, turning to our MBI investment.

As previously disclosed, in December, we amended the terms of the MBI partnership to provide, amongst other benefits, increased capital structure flexibility, enhanced liquidity alternatives with respect to both a future MBI consolidation as well as near-term refinancing strategies, and a reduction in our expected peak leverage upon completion of the MBI acquisition, whereas we do not expect it to exceed four times.

We now own a new call option exercisable starting in the third quarter of this year, while the new put option held by the other investors was extended to January 1, 2026.

If elected, the put option cannot be settled prior to October 1st, 2026, unless Cable One elects to close sooner. The net $250 million we paid to the other investors in Q4, along with the $100 million of additional debt incurred by MBI and distributed to the other investors, will directly reduce the final purchase price payable upon any exercise of either call or put options.

Based on currently available information, if the closing of a call or put option exercise occurs on October 1st, 2026, we estimate that the purchase price payable by Cable One will range between approximately $410 million and $550 million, and MBI's total net indebtedness that will be outstanding at the time it becomes wholly owned by Cable One will be approximately $845 million-$895 million.

As detailed in our previous disclosures, these estimates are based on MBI's past performance and current forecasts and could potentially change. In addition to the aforementioned balance sheet enhancements, this amended partnership agreement allows us to dedicate our 2025 focus on Cable One's organic growth initiatives.

Before handing it off for questions, I'd like to reiterate that 2024 was a big transition year for us as we targeted new customer cohorts while stabilizing ARPU during the second half of the year, launched a unified billing system that will provide more targeted pricing and packaging opportunities, and substantially completed the rebranding of acquired companies, among many other initiatives.

Having taken these foundational actions, we are excited at the opportunities available to us in 2025 as we continue to execute on our phased plan for long-term growth. With that, we are now ready for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. Your first question comes from the line of Gregory Williams from TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Gregory Williams (Analyst)

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Question for Todd, you know, good job on fixing the MBI call option. In the past, we thought you'd have to address that first, and then you'd have to address the 2026 convert second. Now, I guess that's been flipped.

You're going to try to address the converts now and then the MBI later. On the converts, I know it's early, but just maybe talking generally, you know, how would you think about that? When would you think about that as we consider your monetization of your Metronet and other assets, as well as your revolver capacity, and how open are the capital markets? The second question I have is on ARPU, nice work on stabilizing it. A lot of moving parts.

Just understanding where we go from here, whether it's the $5 AutoPayPlus price hikes that's still coming, and then you mentioned Intelligent Wi-Fi, SecurePlus promo rollouts, but then you also have Pay-As-You-Go. Just are we looking at a flat ARPU through the cadence of the year or a slight increase, slight decrease? Any color would be helpful. Thank you.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

Hey, Greg. Thanks for the question. Yeah, MBI and the strategic amendment that we were able to execute in December with our partners definitely brought us some additional capital structure flexibility and enhanced liquidity, as I mentioned earlier, really both for how we think about ultimately consolidating MBI in late 2026, but also for our near-term refinancing strategies, as you point out, with the converts that come due in Q1 of 2026.

I mean, you already kind of said it. We've got that flexibility. We've got a committed $1.25 billion revolver with just slightly north of $300 million funded underneath that facility that will continue to pay down. We have other monetization from those strategic investments that's going to be coming in throughout the course of the year. I would expect those to be late, you know, first half to, you know, early second half.

The gross proceeds from those, as we previously stated, are in excess of $100 million. CTI was actually announced here more recently. It's a smaller monetization, but it's incremental to what we had, and it's a good return for our shareholders. Some of the losses that exist in our strategic investments portfolio, specifically with MBI, should also be able to effectively offset a meaningful amount of the tax on the gains and the other investments.

You can get to a, you know, comparable net proceeds to the gross proceeds. Answering your question then, I guess in a long-winded fashion is we will be very proactive in evaluating the capital markets. They seem to be very constructive right now for us. You know, while we've maybe extended the strategic partnership and, you know, bought some time, we don't plan to rest on that time.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

I'll hop in and I'll start on the ARPU piece. Yes, Greg, there are tons of puts and takes that go into that ARPU. I mean, we like that. We like that there's lots of levers. I mean, we can grow units and we can expand ARPU to get to our overall goal of broadband revenue growth this year. We think that's absolutely possible. Where appropriate, we will attack different market segments and customer segments to do what makes sense most.

Double-clicking on that a little bit. For example, if you have markets that are maybe less competitive and you have high-value customers and they see value in enhanced products, we can launch those and ARPU will expand. In markets where penetration is a little bit lower than average, we can attack that with different offers and drive unit growth. I think you see what I'm getting at.

It is the beauty of having about a million customers in 24 different states. We can go after them in different ways. If you think about it in the past, an example or a corollary would be our use of usage-based billing or unlimited, which differentiated the products.

The people that really wanted that bought it. They had a willingness to pay. To them, it was enhanced value. It was not increased cost, although in fact it was both. On occasion, when the enhancements bring a lot of value, you might see us take an occasional rate increase as well. All of those things are at our disposal, and we will use the tactics that make the most sense, again, based on the markets and the customer segments.

Gregory Williams (Analyst)

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from a line of Sebastiano Petti from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Sebastiano Petti (Analyst)

Hi. Thank you for taking the question. I think, you know, Todd, you talked about, you know, focusing efforts on, you know, your core organic growth initiatives. It's really helpful commentary as well about targeting some different demos. Taking a step back, one of your larger peers earlier this reporting season noted that, you know, maybe they need to lean a little bit more on mobile and try to try to offer maybe more bundling opportunities to drive acquisition and drive gross ads.

Over the last several quarters, churn has been good, and I think the message has been that, you know, you need to maybe try to drive top-line gross at the top of the funnel, some gross additions. How do you get there? Do you need mobile?

You talked about some of these MDU initiatives as well, but specifically with mobile, as we're seeing more of a converged environment in telecommunications and broadband, is that, you know, are you more open to that, less open to that, maybe the last 12, 24 months? Thank you.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

I have a lot of things flying through my head, Sebastiano. I mean, one of the first things is that, you know, absent ACP, we would have grown broadband units. I don't think even absent ACP, our larger peers could say that. First of all, I have to think, do we even need something else, which the answer for me was yes, because we have so much growth to go and get but, starting there, we're always looking for ways to grow.

We're certainly open to partnering with a mobile provider if it will better serve our customers and provide an impetus for other individuals to become new customers. We've spent so much time discussing this. I mean, every functional area, whether it's technology or marketing or operations and with potential vendors.

I have to tell you, honestly, when you think about mid to smaller scale operators, not the big guys, I have heard very mixed results. We'll keep having the conversations. We're open to the possibility. Right now, I believe, we believe that the opportunity for us is to focus on our team, you know, our new team, our new tools, and just getting after organic broadband revenue growth. We think that's the best use of our time. I don't think we need mobile to do it.

It's been really fun to have enough time elapsed from the time we've instituted some of the trials and experiments that we've been talking about to be able to measure them and measure them precisely because of some of these new tools and actually people as well that we've put into place and see that, you know, we have a better line of sight to things that are resonating with customers. We absolutely positively have tools in our toolkit to go after growth.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

Yeah. Sebastiano, I'll add just a couple on that, as you pointed out and Julie reiterated on the organic growth, where we are from a penetration perspective on the high-margin data product and what we believe we can do to confidently grow that, bring so much more accretive value in the interim than, you know, viewing a product that could potentially, as Julie said, be a product that our customers, you know, say they want to take from a single provider, and we can do so, you know, accretively.

Currently, when you look at our, you know, churn as it was the second lowest quarter in the last three years, the year was the lowest in the last three years when you look at it on an annual basis.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

That is with ACP.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

With ACP. That is usually a major assumption you have to believe in as it relates to improving that with another product versus just finding another revenue stream that might not be economical. That is the core to how we evaluate it. Again, open minds are probably the best strategic minds, so we're open-minded. The element of needing to do it right now, and we have so much more organic accretive growth in front of us with our core data product, is what we're going to remain focused on in 2025.

Sebastiano Petti (Analyst)

Okay. Quick housekeeping question, I guess, just to follow up on Greg's question. Do you think in this effort to maximize broadband revenue growth, as well as attacking some maybe opportunities within your customer, within your footprint in terms of a customer segmentation perspective, do you think ARPU can remain stable in 2025 as you maybe target some additional gross additions?

Todd Koetje (CFO)

I do.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

Yeah. I was going to say it sounds a little guidance-y to me. I think we're going to do a little of both. It is going to add up to broadband revenue growth.

Sebastiano Petti (Analyst)

Thank you very much for the color.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from a line of Brandon Nispel from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Brandon Nispel (Analyst)

Hey, guys. Two questions. One, could you talk about what happened in the quarter in terms of churn? I think you mentioned that it sort of picked up. You know, what changed during the quarter that drove churn and the subscriber results? You know, back on ARPU, could you help us understand where you're at from a penetration standpoint on advanced Wi-Fi and the security products and help us sort of frame the opportunity that you have there? Thanks.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

Yeah. Hey, Brandon, I'll start. As it relates to the quarter, what I was just alluding to is that churn actually went down. Churn for Q4 2024 was the second lowest quarter when you look at the last three years. I just want to make sure I reiterate that. Julie can jump in on the ARPU as well.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

For the quarter in terms of overall performance, I would say there were some one-time or unique headwinds. You think about the back half of the year, ACP winding down. We had platform installation and migration going on, which takes a huge amount of focus from the organization and actually caused us to stand still on some of our marketing initiatives in certain areas. We also had some pretty major changes in key team members.

I think that those all went to affecting our performance overall in the quarter. As it relates to ARPU, I think your question was around Intelligent Wi-Fi and SecurePlus. Of our customers that lease equipment, I believe 35% of those are currently on Intelligent Wi-Fi. SecurePlus has just started. I mean, literally, we just started rolling it out. It is a brand new baby product.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

Yep. It's about a third on the Intelligent Wi-Fi exec.

Brandon Nispel (Analyst)

Thanks.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

With really good momentum.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from a line of Craig Moffett from MoffettNathanson. Your line is open.

Craig Moffett (Analyst)

Hi. Thanks. Sebastiano asked my obligatory question of why not mobile. I am going to go in a different direction. Julie, you mentioned at the—what's that?

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

I said, So rude of him.

Craig Moffett (Analyst)

No, I'm just glad it got asked. Let me go back to a comment that you said at the beginning of the call, Julie, where you mentioned that you're seeing less independent overbuilding in your footprint, you think, not from the incumbents, but from others building fiber. Can you just talk some more about that?

What do you think is going on there? Is it that they've built the attractive parts of your footprint and moved on to other areas in the country? Is it that they are starting to struggle with ROIs? Or what insight do you have about why that's happening?

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

Yeah. Great question. Probably, like most things, it's a lot of things. It is possible that folks are thinking that the really cherry areas, whether that means density or demos or ease of build, are gone. I do believe that they, you know, human nature is like, "Boy, this sounds really easy. Let's go do it."

Even building a network isn't all that hard, but running and maintaining a network really is, especially in non-consolidated, more rural America. I'm going to guess, and I would love for Todd to jump in here, that a part of it really has to do with us, quite honestly. I mean, we took a bit of heat in the first half of last year when our ARPU dropped.

As Todd mentioned in his piece, we were selecting certain markets and certain competitors to send a really strong message, which was, "Our customers love us. We've been here for decades, and we're not letting you come." I think part of it has been our response to competition. You know, once we did that in certain areas, we could turn our attention back to stabilizing ARPU. Again, I imagine that there will be a little bit of this give and take as things normalize and shake out. What do you think? What else?

Todd Koetje (CFO)

Yeah. Craig, on the discipline capital side of the equation, you know, when you think about what's been built versus what hasn't, the cost associated with that, just the cost of labor, but the cost of equipment in these rural markets make those more challenging from a return discipline perspective.

We are getting closer to the end of some of what I would call the initial investment lives, where many of these new overbuilders were privately capitalized, and people are looking at exits. Some of those will exit well, like we've seen in some of the investments we've made. Some of them won't exit so well.

The access to the capital, while there is, you know, new markets for the more sophisticated, larger overbuilders like the ABS environment and capital markets, the regular way is more challenged and in all cases more costly, which also is an input into those returns. There is just the element, as Julie said, of operating in some of these rural markets.

I believe there is a lot of folks out there that have realized building is one thing, but operating on a day-to-day non-contractual consumer business and doing it well is even more challenging. The overall competitive dynamics, as Julie mentioned, is something that we believe, as we continue to press harder on that pedal of competitive intensity, is going to make it hard for folks. We have already evidenced that we will take the behaviors to do it.

From a, you know, multiple toolkit perspective that we have, our people live in these markets. They have. This is where they want to live. Their hometown and defending turf is something that they're very proud of. That is something that we're going to lean into even more heavily this year. I would say from an overbuild of just fiber, that overlap in total continues to move higher. It's now in the, call it, high 40s. The largest percentage increase in that is coming from the incumbent telcos. The largest one of that for us is AT&T.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

Yeah. I mean, I agree. Taking really great neighborly care is something that when you say the words, again, sounds really easy, but that's not something that can be easily replicated.

Craig Moffett (Analyst)

That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from a line of Sam McHugh from BNP Paribas. Your line is open.

Sam McHugh (Analyst)

Yeah. Thanks, guys. Excuse me. A few questions, if I can. Thanks for the fiber overlap update. You know, where do you think that will go in the medium to long term? Like, what is your anticipation? Is it kind of 60%-70%, higher or lower than that? Secondly, if we look at Q4, it looks like the losses in residential did accelerate a lot relative to the rest of the year. As we look into 2025, is that kind of 4,000, you know, underlying losses a reasonable run rate for 2025? Thank you very much.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

Yeah. I'll hit the first one. I'll let Julie take the second one, Sam. As it relates to the fiber overlap, as I mentioned, it's, you know, right now estimated to be in that kind of high 40% area based on all of our ground truth. The largest contributing increase to that has been the incumbent telcos. You know, as you know, almost 85% of our overlap is between two. The one that's been the most ambitious out there is our largest.

I would expect, based on their intentions and what's been publicly released, that that will continue to increase from there. We're okay with that, right? Our multi-gig capable networks against their multi-gig capable networks and our people in these markets creates long-term attractive economic returns for us. That's what we've competed against for years.

You know, I would be remiss if I didn't add that we also do have some non-fiber, but I would say very capable providers, and that's usually in the approximate another 10 percentage points. When you think about just overall competitive overlap right now with gig capable, we're going to be in that kind of high 50% land.

Not that different from others. What we would view is probably a little bit more to go, but, you know, a lot of that is behind us. With a lot of that behind us, and this is the year of the last three years when most of that was happening that we had the lowest churn, I think there's a strong testament to the retention and the loyalty in our customer base.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

Yeah, we talked a little bit about the unique headwinds that we experienced in the last quarter of the year, which are things like the winding down of ACP continuing and completing platform, a very large platform installation and migration, actually more than one, and key changes in team members that I believe affected us.

Again, unique headwinds. I do not anticipate that being the run rate in 2025 at all. In fact, I see a lot of bright spots. We have better line of sight now than we ever have because of new tools and new folks to see what resonates with non-customers, bringing them on board. I think you'll see some actions around cell phone internet. I'm not going to go into details. I'm very aware that our competitors also listen to our calls.

We have a factory, and I mean, it is a legitimate factory going as it relates to our new builds. We have the measurements on experiments that we did in 2024 that are showing that we have very real tools to go after customers and get the connects. Our issue is not churn. As you heard Todd elaborate, we need to get connects. I have every confidence that we've figured out a couple of things, and we'll work on figuring out some more.

Sam McHugh (Analyst)

Super. If I can ask one very small follow-up, just on the overlap market, some of the ones that are more tenured, how should we think about market share differentials between the overlap and non-overlap markets?

Todd Koetje (CFO)

Yeah. Sam, we have not disclosed penetration. I think if that's what you mean by market and how you break out, you know, where you're overlapping with fiber or where you're not, you know, it depends also on for how long. Going into that on a, you know, cohort-by-cohort basis is something we've not disclosed in the past.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

I will say, by and large, just to give you a little bit of flavor, if you're talking about a market where we've had overlap, you said most tenured, those are the markets where we're actually growing again. I mean, there is a normalization period, and we've seen it vary for a whole bunch of reasons that I could go into. Typically, after some period of time, could be as short as 12 months, could be as long as 19 months, we start growing again.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

That's a good point. Maybe to add to that, Sam, we've talked about this in the past, but it's consistent still this past quarter. Our churn was actually lowest in our most competitive markets.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

Yes.

Sam McHugh (Analyst)

Yes. Okay. Awesome, guys. Thanks very much.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from a line of Steven Cahall from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Steven Cahall (Analyst)

Yeah. Thank you. Just one on subs and one on ARPU. Just on the subs, you know, it sounds like the little less than 5,000 data losses that you saw in Q4, I think, Julie, you said that's certainly not what you expect to be the run rate for 2025. You know, when we sit here and excel, sometimes it's tough to see what's changed.

Could you talk maybe a little bit about what you've seen in Q1 or just help us understand why that's not the run rate? I'm not sure I quite fully appreciated some of the nuance there. As it relates to your plan to grow ARPU in 2025, so you know, ARPU, I think, was down kind of 5%-6% in 2024.

I know there was a lot of aggressive action in a few markets, which implies some of those markets ARPU was down maybe two to three times that. Do you feel comfortable enough about the competitive environment that in those places where you took ARPU down, you can bring it back up and you will not see those same overbuilders or new overbuilders start to come in? Sorry, just a small kind of small one, but Altice has talked about putting more CapEx into the West. Do you have much overlap with Optimum or not really, mostly just AT&T? Thank you.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

Let you hit the sub.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

Yeah. I was like, wow, I'm writing so fast just trying to capture your question, Steven. Subs. No, I do not expect that to be our run rate. Why do I think it's different? Again, we had very specific one-time headwinds in Q4 related to ACP winding down, doing installations of new platforms, and migrating customers onto a really large one of those and changing out quite a few key team me

mbers. We also, in the course of that occurring, have had a chance to exercise those platforms and, quite honestly, the people as well, and gather really great measurements on some of the trials and experiments that we did in 2024, such that we now have line of sight into some of the tactics that we've tried that are much more nuanced, much more surgical, very segmented, and have proven to be fruitful.

We're going to do more of that. We're going to keep trialing other things as well. We plan on going up against which one of the items that we think is affecting connects in a large way, which is cell phone internet. Again, not going to go into the details because I just let it get out there and let that run its course. You talked about ARPU as well.

I mean, one of the beautiful things about our markets is it gives us lots of room to play. If a competitor comes into a specific market and we feel like we have to, you know, winning against competition, number one, is about more than price, absolutely positively. Our people and their infinite caring and the investment that we've made, not just in the network, but in these communities over decades matters.

Price might as well. If we take price down in a certain marketplace, that's okay because we likely can take price up in other places. We don't usually like to do that in what I would call a quote unquote naked rate increase. We prefer to talk to our customers, find out their needs and wants, and then give them products and enhanced features that they're willing to pay for that actually drives that ARPU up.

Lots of room to play. We'll adjust where we need to. Sometimes that's going to mean that a certain marketplace is really growing units. Sometimes that's going to mean a certain marketplace is really growing ARPU. We think we have the room to move.

Now, if something comes up in the future and someone encroaches in an area that we really need to defend, we're going to do that because that's the right long-term move.

Todd Koetje (CFO)

On the Optimum side, I believe you asked specifically, Steven, the CapEx minimal overlap, first and foremost. I believe a lot of the capital that was discussed was upgrading to basically levels that we are already at. You know, all of our network is 3.1. Our investments are being made into 4.0 with virtualized CMTS, distributed access architecture, things that really set us up for, you know, 4 out of 10 gig environments in the near future.

Steven Cahall (Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

That concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Julie for closing remarks.

Julie Laulis (President and CEO)

Thank you, Rob. Before we conclude, I want to extend my sincere gratitude to our associates for their relentless efforts throughout 2024, whether it was your work on the billing conversion, the rebranding efforts, solving customer issues on the phone, or working hard within every community across our footprint to provide our customers the connectivity they need. Your unflagging dedication to one another, our customers, and our company is spectacular. I am grateful to each of you. Thank you. We look forward to speaking with you all again next quarter.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.