Candel Therapeutics, Inc. (CADL)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Candel reported a wider net loss of $22.2M in Q2 2024 (vs. $9.6M in Q2 2023), driven primarily by a $13.3M non-cash loss from change in fair value of warrant liability; R&D of $5.0M and G&A of $3.6M were well-controlled year over year .
• Cash and cash equivalents were $21.5M at 6/30/24; management extended runway guidance to fund operations into Q1 2025 (up from into Q4 2024 as of Q1) — a constructive development despite ongoing burn .
• Clinical momentum continued: positive OS signals for CAN-2409 in NSCLC and pancreatic cancer; FDA orphan drug designations for CAN-2409 (pancreatic) and CAN-3110 (rHGG); key prostate cancer readouts (Phase 2b and Phase 3) remain on track for Q4 2024 .
• The company joined the Russell 3000 Index as of July 1, 2024, increasing investor visibility heading into pivotal 2H24 catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Positive clinical readouts: CAN-2409 showed phase 2 OS signal in NSCLC (mOS 20.6 months vs. published <12 months with docetaxel-based SoC) and pancreatic cancer (mOS 28.8 months vs. 12.5 months control), with supportive immune activation and favorable tolerability profiles .
• Regulatory momentum: FDA orphan drug designations for CAN-2409 (pancreatic cancer) and CAN-3110 (rHGG), adding potential development and market exclusivity advantages .
• Visibility and investor engagement: Inclusion in Russell 3000 Index effective 7/1/24 and an R&D panel at ASCO discussing NSCLC data elevated the story heading into multiple 2H24 readouts .

What Went Wrong

• Net loss jumped to $22.2M in Q2 (vs. $9.6M in Q2 2023), primarily due to a $13.3M non-cash warrant liability fair value loss, introducing headline volatility despite largely stable OpEx .
• Stockholders’ equity swung to a deficit of $(10.0)M at 6/30/24 (warrant liability at $14.2M), underscoring balance sheet sensitivity to valuation changes in liabilities .
• Runway remains limited to Q1 2025, keeping financing risk alive if pivotal prostate data are not clearly value-creating within the window .

Financial Results

Note: Candel is a clinical-stage, pre-commercial company; no product revenue line was presented in the Q2 financial tables. The P&L disclosures focus on operating expenses, other income/expense, and net loss .

P&L and Cash (Oldest → Newest)

Q2 YoY Comparison

Key drivers:

• The Q2 2024 net loss increase was driven by non-cash warrant liability fair value changes, with other expense, net at $(13.7)M in Q2 2024 vs. $(0.04)M in Q2 2023 .
• Operating expense discipline continued: R&D decreased YoY to $5.0M (from $5.9M), G&A remained $3.6M .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No earnings call transcript was available in the document set; themes below reflect management’s prepared remarks and releases.

Management Commentary

• “The second quarter of 2024 represented a pivotal period for Candel, characterized by robust clinical advancements and key regulatory successes… Our encouraging overall survival phase 2 data for CAN-2409 highlights the potential of our lead candidate… In addition, the FDA granting orphan drug designation for CAN-3110… underscores the promise of this first-in-class, novel asset” — Paul Peter Tak, MD, PhD, FMedSci, President & CEO .
• Management emphasized immune activation (cytotoxic and memory T cells) associated with prolonged survival in NSCLC after two administrations of CAN-2409 and favorable safety/tolerability across programs .

Q&A Highlights

• No earnings call transcript was available in the filings/press materials set; therefore, Q&A themes and any guidance clarifications could not be assessed.

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) could not be retrieved at the time of analysis; therefore, comparisons vs. consensus for EPS/revenue are unavailable.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• OpEx discipline continues (R&D down YoY; G&A flat), but headline P&L volatility is driven by warrant liability fair value changes; investors should look through non-cash swings to underlying cash burn and catalysts .
• Runway extended to Q1 2025, a constructive bridge to multiple 2H24 readouts; however, financing risk remains if data are not sufficiently value-creating within the window .
• Clinical momentum is building: NSCLC and pancreatic OS signals plus ODDs support CAN-2409 and CAN-3110 differentiation; upcoming prostate Phase 2b/3 toplines are the key stock catalysts into Q4 2024 .
• Balance sheet optics (equity deficit; larger warrant liability) warrant monitoring; structure-related items can drive pronounced P&L noise around results dates .
• Near-term trading setup: shares likely to be catalyst-driven with high sensitivity to Phase 2b/3 prostate outcomes and any additional NSCLC/pancreatic updates; absence of revenue and limited runway elevate binary event risk .

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Sources:

• Q2 2024 8‑K and Exhibit 99.1 press release, including financial statements and program updates .
• Q2 2024 press release (GlobeNewswire/IR site) reinforcing financials and milestones .
• Q1 2024 8‑K and press release for prior-quarter comparisons and runway .
• Q4 2023 8‑K and press release for baseline trends and cash position .
• Russell 3000 Index inclusion press release .