CAE - Earnings Call - Q3 2025
February 14, 2025
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the CAE Third Quarter Financial Results for Fiscal Year 2025 Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions from analysts. To join the question queue, you may press star, then one, on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star, then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Andrew Arnovitz. Please go ahead, Mr. Arnovitz.
Andrew Arnovitz (SVP of Investor Relations)
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's remarks, including management's outlook and answers to questions, contain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements represent our expectations as of today, February 14, 2025, and accordingly are subject to change. Such statements are based on assumptions that may not materialize and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially, and listeners are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. A description of the risks, factors, and assumptions that may affect future results is contained in CAE's annual MD&A and MD&A for the three months ended December 31, 2024, available on our corporate website and in our filings with the Canadian Securities Administrators on SEDAR+ and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on EDGAR.
On the call with me this morning, our Marc Parent, CAE's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Constantino Malatesta, our Interim Chief Financial Officer. Nick Leontidis, CAE's Chief Operating Officer, is on hand for the question period. After remarks from Marc and Constantino, we'll open the call to questions from financial analysts. Before we begin, I'm sure you've all seen the news release we issued yesterday afternoon alongside our Q3 results. It announced the appointment of four new directors to CAE's board, with Calin Rovinescu as the new Chair. The other appointees are Peter Lee, Katherine A. Lehman, and Louis Têtu. These changes come after consultations with our stakeholders, focusing on the board's ongoing review of its composition and a transition towards renewed board leadership. The four appointments are being made in conjunction with the retirement of four directors: Alan N. MacGibbon, who has served as chair of the board since 2022 and as a director since 2015. Margaret S. Billson, François Olivier, and David G. Perkins. We extend our gratitude for their exceptional service and valuable contributions during their tenure, and we look forward to welcoming our new board members to CAE. Let me now turn the call over to Marc.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Thank you, Andrew, and good morning to everyone joining us on the call. Let me first say that I certainly echo Andrew's comments, and in particular, I want to express my heartfelt gratitude to Alan for his steadfast leadership and commitment to our shared vision for CAE. I'm also grateful to the other departing board members, François, Peggy, and David, for their continued support and advice through the years. As we embark on the next chapter, I'm looking forward to working with our new board members in the coming months, and I'm confident that together, we'll continue to build on our success.
Before I move to our quarterly results, I also want to take a moment to share how proud I am that CAE has been recognized as one of Canada's Top 100 Employers for the third consecutive year and has earned a spot on Forbes Canada's Best Employers list for 2025. These honors reflect the collaborative, innovative, and empowering culture that we've built for CAE, made possible by the dedication of our 13,000 employees. This strong foundation of talent and commitment continues to drive our success, as reflected in our outstanding third quarter performance. During this quarter, we generated a record CAD 410 million in free cash flow while further securing CAE's future with CAD 2.2 billion in new orders, culminating in a record adjusted backlog of CAD 20.3 billion.
In Civil, we finalized the purchase of an increased stake in our SIMCOM joint venture and extended our exclusive long-term training agreement with Flexjet and its affiliates, initiatives that generated more than $500 million in additional order intake and backlog in our highly desirable business aviation training segment. In total for Civil, we booked CAD 1.5 billion in orders for a two-times book-to-sales ratio on revenue that's 21% higher than Q3 of last year. We ended the quarter with a record CAD 8.8 billion total Civil-adjusted backlog, which is up 44% year-over-year. In products, we received orders for 15 full-flight simulators, bringing the total to 42 as of the end of the third quarter. We delivered 20 full-flight simulators this quarter, a notable increase from our first half cadence and from 13 in the same quarter last year.
Combined commercial and business aviation training center utilization reached 76%, consistent with last year's performance, although some softness persisted longer than we expected in commercial aviation training in the Americas. Pilot hiring remained modest in that region, and some of our airline customers deferred their training bookings due to ongoing short-term aircraft supply chain challenges. Partly offsetting this headwind was the continued positive momentum in business aviation training, driven by higher utilization and profitability as we ramped up our newly deployed simulators and training centers. We also continued to make excellent progress in the market for our flight services software solutions. We signed orders for more than CAD 60 million with major airlines in the Americas and Asia, and we just announced Turkish Airlines as another customer who will be adopting CAE's next-generation Unified Task Board and crew management solutions.
The market is responding very positively to this CAE innovation, which provides airline operations control centers with enhanced situational awareness and disruption management capabilities. We're also proudly inaugurating our first air traffic services training center in collaboration with NAV CANADA. Located in our main campus in Montreal, this newly opened training center extends CAE's core mission of making the world safer. As a pilot, I could personally attest to the vital role that clear, effective communication between flight crews and air traffic control personnel plays in ensuring the safety of every flight. By leveraging CAE's expertise in competency-based training design, advanced instructional delivery, and data-driven technologies, we're helping to prepare the next generation of air traffic professionals for this critical responsibility. In Defense, performance tracked ahead of our expectations as we made more progress towards becoming a low double-digit margin business.
This was driven by strong execution, risk reduction, significant backlog growth, and improving backlog quality. During the quarter, we made excellent strides in advancing growth and expanding margins, including successfully completing another legacy contract from our backlog, our second this year. Orders included a contract under the Canadian Future Aircrew Training Program, option awards to extend our support for U.S. Army fixed-wing training, and the KC-135 program for the United States Air Force, as well as ongoing modifications and updates for F-16 fighter training devices. These agreements reinforce our commitment to the long-term success of our Defense customers. For the quarter, we recorded a total of CAD 707 million in Defense orders, achieving a book-to-sales ratio of 1.5x, contributing to a record CAD 11.5 billion in Defense-adjusted backlog, up 104% year-over-year. Over the last 12 months, the Defense book-to-sales ratio at an impressive 2.19x.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Dino, who will provide additional details about our financial performance. Dino?
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
Thank you, Marc. Good morning, everyone. Consolidated revenues of CAD 1.22 billion was 12% higher compared to the third quarter last year, while adjusted segment operating income was CAD 190.0 million, up 31% compared to CAD 145.1 million in the last quarter. Our quarterly adjusted EPS was $0.29, compared to $0.24 in the third quarter last year. Net finance expense this quarter amounted to CAD 56.6 million, which is up from CAD 52.9 million in the preceding quarter and CAD 52.4 million in the quarter last year. The higher level of finance expense is mainly the result of higher lease liabilities in support of our training network expansions and additional borrowings to finance the SIMCOM transaction this quarter. This was partially offset by lower finance expense on long-term debt due to a decreased level of borrowings during the period aligned with our ongoing deleveraging objectives.
All things considered, we now expect that net finance expense for the year to be approximately CAD 10 million higher than last year. Income tax expense this quarter was CAD 34.8 million for an effective tax rate of 17%. The adjusted effective income tax rate was 29%, which is the basis of the adjusted EPS. We continue to expect a run rate effective income tax rate of 25%. I'm especially pleased with our strong cash flow performance this quarter. Net cash from operating activities was a record CAD 424.6 million compared to CAD 220.8 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Free cash flow was a record CAD 409.8 million compared to CAD 190 million in the third quarter last year. The increase was mainly due to a higher contribution from non-cash working capital and higher net income.
All told, we expect to generate strong free cash flow for the year with a conversion of adjusted net income of over 150%, which is an increase from our previous conversion target of approximately 100%. Capital expenditures totaled CAD 97.6 million this quarter, with approximately 80% invested in growth, mainly to add capacity to our global training network to deliver on long-term training contracts in our backlog. We expect total CapEx for fiscal 2025 to be approximately CAD 30 million higher than fiscal 2024 CapEx of CAD 330 million, which is lower than our previous expectations. Our net debt position at the end of the quarter was approximately CAD 3.4 billion for a net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 3.36 times. Before the impact of the legacy contract, net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.08 times.
We remain focused on further strengthening our financial position, and we continue to expect to be below three times net debt to Adjusted EBITDA by the end of the fiscal year. Now, turning to our segmented performance. In Civil, third quarter revenue grew 21% year-over-year to CAD 752.6 million, while adjusted segment operating income rose 21% to CAD 250.8 million, resulting in a 20% margin. This excludes a net remeasurement gain of CAD 72.6 million on our SIMCOM transaction, which effectively marked up our previously held equity interest in the joint venture to fair value. As Marc highlighted earlier, with 20 FFS deliveries this quarter, we saw a notable shift in revenue mix with a higher proportion for products compared to last year.
Defense revenue remained stable at CAD 470.8 million, while adjusted segment operating income increased 88% to CAD 39.2 million, delivering an 8.3% margin, thanks to strong execution from the team and lower net R&D expenses. Legacy contracts remain on track, with costs and schedules well managed. As planned, we concluded another one of our legacy contracts this quarter, and we are on track to finalize a third one at the end of the fiscal year. This quarter, legacy contracts contributed around seven basis points of margin dilution. Without this impact, the adjusted segment operating income margin for Defense would have been 9%. With that, I will ask Marc to discuss the way forward.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Thanks, Dino. The investment thesis for CAE remains as compelling as ever, and our record-setting CAD 20 billion backlog reinforces my confidence in the company's bright future. A common driver across both our Civil and Defense segments is the sustained high demand for pilots and pilot training, both to support industry growth and to replace retiring personnel. We're in an excellent position in strong markets, and these structural factors continue to fuel long-term demand for our training and operational support solutions. In Civil, while commercial OEM aircraft supply disruptions have persisted, recent optimism surrounding production rate recovery and a return to service of aircraft that have been grounded by engine issues has encouraged. Although some airline customers in the Americas deferred initial training reservations this quarter, those same airlines are now actively engaging with us to plan the timing and scale of their pilot hiring ramp-up and associated training needs.
This isn't a question of if, but when. Looking ahead, the demand for air travel, ongoing pilot requirements, and the delivery of nearly 15,000 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus' combined backlog over the next decade position us as a key player in a long-term secular growth story. Similarly, the outlook for business aviation training remains highly positive, especially as we continue strengthening our presence in this critical segment. Building on our increased investment in SIMCOM, Flexjet, one of the world's largest fractional jet operators, announced last week a $7 billion aircraft order and projected fleet expansion to approximately 600 aircraft by 2031. This move underscores the accelerating shift towards fractional jet ownership, which has been growing much faster than the overall market. As Flexjet's exclusive training partner, CAE is well positioned to benefit from this industry growth.
In Defense, demand for our training solutions remains robust, driven by a global shortage of uniformed personnel, prompting militaries to turn to CAE to support readiness. We're very well positioned in a strengthening market as the sector enters a prolonged growth cycle with rising budgets across NATO and allied nations. Geopolitical tensions and evolving security threats are driving Defense modernization efforts, increasing the need for the training and simulation solutions that we provide. These factors are creating substantial growth opportunities for CAE as governments and Defense forces seek innovative solutions to enhance mission readiness and operational effectiveness. A prime example is the strategic partnership we announced yesterday between CAE and the Government of Canada. Through this partnership, CAE will leverage its deep expertise to work alongside the Royal Canadian Air Force in designing and co-developing the Future Fighter Lead-In Training Program or FFLIT program.
This initiative will play a critical role in preparing pilots for the transition to Canada's next-generation fighter jets, ensuring the long-term success of the CF-35A program. By integrating cutting-edge technology and advanced training methods, FFLIT will equip fighter pilot candidates with the skills required to operate a highly sophisticated CF-35A in increasingly complex operational landscapes. Looking ahead to the remainder of this fiscal year in Civil, the ramp-up of commercial aircraft deliveries is taking longer than expected, and this is a key driver of initial training demand for newly hired pilots. With the short-term impact that this is having on incremental training demand in the Americas, we now expect annual Civil adjusted segment operating income growth to be modestly below our previous outlook of approximately 10%.
Also, since product deliveries are expected to account for a higher proportion of Civil revenue than initially planned, we expect the annual Civil segment operating income margin to be modestly below our previously expected range of 22%-23%. Looking beyond this period, we continue to foresee ample room for margin expansion in future years on volume, efficiencies, and mix. In Defense, with the benefit of our rebaselining last fiscal year and the higher cadence quality of execution, we now expect to achieve high single-digit percentage revenue growth for the year, which is up from our previous expectations in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range. We're also expecting the annual Defense-adjusted segment operating income margin to be modestly above the previously indicated range of 6%-7%. This puts us solidly on the path to becoming a low double-digit margin business.
Taking our Civil and Defense outlook together, we remain on track to meet our previously stated three-year EPS target while achieving strong order intake, backlog, and free cash flow. With that, I thank you for your attention, and we're now ready to answer the questions.
Andrew Arnovitz (SVP of Investor Relations)
Thanks, Marc. Operators, please open the line to questions from financial analysts.
Operator (participant)
Will do. We'll now begin the question and answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Our first question is from Konark Gupta from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Hi, this is Elise filling in for Konark. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on the CapEx.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Morning.
Yeah. My first question is on the CapEx targets reduction. Was it more a function of delays in demand in certain areas or just more prudence?
I think it's prudence, and we always align basically capacity with demand, so we always stay in lock step, and that's what you see reflected here.
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
If I can add to that, I think we just wanted to add effectively that this is lower than previous market expectations. This is again a continued example of our disciplined approach to capital allocation and cash management. This, along with the CAD 410 million of free cash flow, I think is evidence of our disciplined approach to capital allocation and our focus on driving free cash flow up.
Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. And maybe just one more question. How is your training utilization trending in the Americas versus Europe and Asia?
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Well, look, I think, look, let me start with maybe the flight activity, which leads to that. But maybe look at year-over-year figures. I think what drives everything is the commercial flight activity, right? So airline passenger traffic. So in the Americas, what we've seen is about 7% growth year-over-year, and that's driving, actually, perversely, what you see in the Americas is, as we've talked about, we've seen a utilization, our training centers was down slightly, and that's driven by the lower pilot hiring in the United States. If I look at in Europe, Middle East, passenger traffic's up 5%, and in that case, we're seeing corresponding utilization increase, and in India, we're up about 7%. Anything you'd add to that, Nick?
Nick Leontidis (COO)
No, I think the U.S. utilization is down year-over-year, and it's really just a function of the hiring demand that is supposed to be happening right now.
Okay. Thanks, guys. I appreciate the time. That's all my questions.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from James McGarragle from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
James McGarragle (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Congrats on a good quarter, and thanks for having me on.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Thank you.
James McGarragle (Equity Research Analyst)
So on the impact from potential tariffs, can you just discuss a little bit how you're positioned to react in the event we have tariffs that are sustained? And have you seen any shifts in your customers' decision-making from tariffs, delaying orders, looking for other options? I understand it's only been a few weeks. But any color you can provide, it would be very helpful. Thanks.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Sure. Thanks for the question. Look, it's obviously a situation that we, like everybody else, hope reaches constructive and bilateral conclusions through negotiation. But look, I think, as we said in the past, we certainly don't expect to see a material impact in the short term, certainly, so the next few months to a year from this on our business as a whole. But it's definitely something that we're monitoring closely. And if any kind of tariffs become more lasting beyond that, beyond getting to more than a year or two, obviously, we would adapt. And then we have the capacity to adapt. I mean, bear in mind, if you think about our business, it's a business that's changed a lot over the last 20 years, that more than two-thirds of our revenue is generated from services, and we deliver that in-country. So that's not an issue.
And so the main product that we sell into the United States is the full-flight simulator. There's already a big proportion of that, which is U.S. or E.U. origin. That's one factor. But again, I think there's a lot of ways for us to mitigate things if things, again, should last beyond, should I say, next few months to a year. And again, if I look at, I'd say, conversely, what we're seeing this year, we're particularly not affected because with the lower pilot activity, the hiring activity that we've seen this year on the back of OEM delays, we've actually had relatively few sales to our U.S. customers this year. So we've only got a few deliveries going there this year, although similar sales themselves remain strong. They're just coming from other parts of the world.
James McGarragle (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, thanks for the color. And then on the Defense results, the margins obviously came in really strong in the quarter. Guidance maybe implies a little bit of a step down next quarter. So anything to call out there in terms of one-time items in Q3? Was there seasonality that might have helped the results in the quarter? Just trying to get it, see how things might evolve a little bit longer term. And then, Nick, you've been looking at this business for a few quarters now. The team highlighted in the release, margins are expected to continue to expand. So can you just talk about your level of confidence in that and anything in particular that you see as an opportunity in fiscal 2026? And after that, I can turn the line over. Thanks.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Okay. Good. So we'll tag team this. Okay. I'll kick it off, turn it over to Dino, and then finish off with Nick. Look, I think what you reflect here is we're feeling very good about the direction of the business. Certainly, the team in place of which Nick is leading has done a very good job. And the momentum at the front end, you just look at the order intake, I think it's nothing short of outstanding. And the geopolitical environment, for unfortunate reasons, is fueling demand for the products and services that CAE's are good at. So the team is executing extremely well. There's nothing really extraordinary in it. I'm sure that's what Dino was going to say. It really comes down here to execution, strong performance all around by the team. At the same time, there's risk reduction. Risk reduction is rampant.
We're taking a very, very disciplined approach, and when we look at the fourth quarter, I think you always got to remember that Defense is always, shall we say, a lumpy business from quarter to quarter, has the potential to be because as we execute contracts in any given time, you could generate plus or more revenue in a single quarter, so as we talk about, we are raising the outlook, and I think we're still being prudent about Defense business as a whole, but we're remaining very confident, so maybe just turn it over to you, Dino.
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
Yeah. Thank you, Marc. And I would echo that. I'm really, really pleased with 8.3%. That's why margin performance this quarter is an increase year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter. Again, you're right. I think you see a lot of this being a direct result of the process changes and changes that we've made to the team showing through in the performance and execution. We also closed off another legacy contract. We expect another legacy contract to fall off by the end of next year. So feel good about that as well. There was a little bit of help, higher than usual R&D tax credits in the quarter. Nothing overly significant. Contributed maybe a half a percentage point to the margin. And that's just usual timing that we see sometimes in quarter Q3. But overall, really strong performance of the margin and really good work done by the team.
Nick Leontidis (COO)
Yeah. Just to echo the comments already, in terms of performance, I think the team's been, certainly, we have a different attitude towards executing on the programs per the plan. I think also the mix is better, so legacy contracts, low-margin contracts, I mean, there's always some of that. But the pipeline also, because you would have seen the order intake and the performance on new orders this year for Defense has been quite strong, so that's also going to help us as we look out in the future. I think we're certainly, I'm pretty confident that we can maintain and/or exceed this level of performance.
James McGarragle (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Fadi Chamoun from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Fadi Chamoun (Equity Research Analyst)
Yes. Good morning. Marc, I was wondering if you can kind of offer some perspective on the board changes that were announced. Are there any specific kind of governance variable items that the board is focused on to the extent that you can share with us, even from a high level, kind of what does this change kind of mean for? And my second question, I apologize, I missed the beginning of the call a little bit. We had another call going on. But the puts and takes in terms of the organic growth in the Civil aviation market going forward, I'm guessing the U.S. market is a bit of a drag right now. But how should we think about the relationship in that market recovering to the delivery of the Boeing starting to ramp up? Is there a lag effect between the two that we should think about?
If you can offer kind of some maybe even high-level perspective, what does the rate of organic growth look like when you put all things together between business aviation and what you're seeing on the commercial aviation side?
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Maybe I'll just start with that last question, not to deflect the first one, but just basically to get my head around that one. Look, I think Civil, notwithstanding the softness that we've seen in the quarter again in the U.S., as you said, and it's quite right. I mean, Civil had excellent results this quarter, and it reflects the diversification in our Civil business in itself. And you highlighted a lot of the components there. Look, in this quarter, what we saw is basically the continuation of what we saw in previous quarters and this year in pilot hiring in the U.S. is basically a fraction of what it was just last year. And actually, third quarter was our worst quarter in that regard. And that's just basically because we saw continuation and perhaps more than well, certainly more than we anticipated.
I think we're not alone in that, in the amount of airplanes that were delivered by OEMs and the amount of disruption caused by groundings of aircraft across the world that really affected customers of Airbus aircraft primarily. So for us, how that reflects itself in the United States is that when you don't have strong pilot hiring, you don't have, sorry, you don't have a lot of new aircraft being delivered to airlines. You see the airlines basically, essentially, they've increased pilot hiring substantially over the last couple of years. And now, basically, they have, if you like, for a short amount of time, too many pilots hired for the needs that they have on the aircraft that they're flying. So typically, when they stop hiring pilots, what happens is that the large carriers are taking pilots when they hire to take them from the regionals.
The regionals themselves, they're basically hiring new pilots, and that creates a disproportionate amount of training in our training centers for regional aircraft in the United States. Centers like, for example, we have a strong center for regional pilot training in Minneapolis, for example. Although that's not a very big impact in terms of revenue itself, it kind of has a disproportionate effect in margins because the training we do on the type of aircraft that the regional aircraft carriers fly are aircraft like CRJs, like Dash 8s, which those airplanes have been around for a long time, and so have our simulators. They tend to be far down the depreciation curve, and therefore, we make a larger amount of profit on it. That's what you see happening here. It's the same factor we had before.
What's changed in this particular quarter is that because of the sustained situation around OEMs, we've seen airlines actually canceling or deferring their training slots in the quarter. Now, as I said in my remarks, you see those same airlines with the positive news that we're seeing now. You saw Boeing just recently announced that they delivered 40 airplanes in the quarter. So that's resulting, obviously, in people saying, "Okay, well, there's renewed optimism happening here." So look, again, as I said, watch the deliveries. And as they recover, I mean, the utilization in our U.S. training center should follow, and it should follow relatively quickly behind. Of course, that's not the only story. We're talking about commercial aircraft. Sales of simulators are still very strong. And you see just testimony of the strong order intake. You see that certainly the airlines' enthusiasm for the future is certainly not dampened.
That's testament to the book-to-bill that we have. As well, of course, business aircraft. Business aircraft is doing extremely well. We continue to ramp up more recently deployed training centers, for example, like our new training center with SIMCOM that now is wholly owned by us in Orlando or training center in Las Vegas. And we're seeing higher utilization and growth in all of those cases. And you just look at the order intake, and we just added CAD 500 million to the order intake in business aircraft as a result of the SIMCOM acquisition and associated Flexjet orders that are delivered. It's going to come out of that in terms of training slots. So look, I think, as I said in my remarks, it's not a question of if, there's a question of when, and we're going to see strong demand.
Fadi Chamoun (Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Sorry. Go back to your previous question. Look, I think what you're seeing here, and I'm not going to answer for the board, but what you're seeing is a function of ongoing board renewal. You have my succession, and at the same time, you have a new chairman coming in, and Alan has done an outstanding job leading his company over the last few years. We've worked very well together.
I think there's a very, I think, smart timing in terms of my transition with bringing on a very, very strong, and I'm sure you will recognize, very strong new chairman, Calin Rovinescu, with his background at Air Canada, chairman of IATA in the past, to be able to be someone that's going to be able to play a very, very strong role in terms of certainly hiring my successor and having a very effective transition with the current board and leading the board into the future. So I think we're all very encouraged by it.
Fadi Chamoun (Equity Research Analyst)
Appreciate it. Thank you, Marc.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Kevin Chiang from CIBC. Please go ahead.
Kevin Chiang (Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I apologize if you went through some of this in your prepared remarks. I was also on a call earlier. But just on the, I guess, on the announced Flexjet order with Embraer, obviously a pretty large order for them. I'm just wondering how you see that opportunity for CAE post the SIMCOM deal. And I know it's probably early days, but are there any investments you think you'd be required to make to support training related to that large fleet order on the business aviation side?
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
I'll start it off, and maybe hand it over to Nick. It's extremely positive for us because, again, we're exclusive to Flexjet. We know them very, very well because we've been training them for years. What's positive is not only the amount of aircraft that they're buying, but they're buying the mix of aircraft, which really basically grows the accessibility that we have of training on the whole fleet of Flexjet aircraft. So again, I couldn't be more happy with that order, but maybe you want to add.
Nick Leontidis (COO)
Yeah. I mean, the Flexjet placed an order for 180+ Praetors and Phenoms. Those are aircraft that we currently serve in the training center. I mean, we don't have enough capacity to deal with 183 aircraft with what we've got right now. So yes, there will be investment in more Praetor capacity and more Phenom capacity. But there's no need for anything beyond that. Like we can take that capacity in terms of space and deliver the training. And this is part of the reason why you saw the order intake, and you also see the order intake as a function. Because one of the things we did was so this contract, when we originally consummated the JV, was a 15-year agreement. We were five years in. So the agreement was reset to 15 years. And so this justifies the investments for the next batch of aircraft.
Kevin Chiang (Equity Research Analyst)
No, definitely makes sense. Seems like a pretty nice tailwind for you, especially post the SIMCOM transaction. Maybe just my second question. I generally think of CAE as broadly immunized from kind of the marginal change in U.S. Defense spending or broader U.S. budgets, just given the type of stuff you do. Just wondering if that's changed under the new administration. They're obviously looking at cost-cutting maybe in a different way than previous administration. Just wondering if you see anything at risk or anything that might have been impacted within your backlog given the change in administration.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
The first thing I'll say to that one is, as I've always said, is the day that these forces will be a proxy to the U.S. Defense budget, I will be very happy. But that's not the case. I think the reality is what you see is a focus in the United States and all of its allies, Canada and NATO, NORAD, is a strive to increase readiness of forces. And readiness means training. When you think about what a military does when they're not in situation of conflict, they train. That is all that they do. And with increasing readiness, what that means is more demand for the kinds of services and products that we do.
You see that as reflected in a very strong order backlog that we've already won and the opportunity that we have out there in terms of the bids that we have out there for basically selection by customers. I mean, what you could see, I mean, is short-term variations like if we see some, for example, like a shutdown of the U.S. government, well, that could have, and I'm not saying they will, I have no crystal ball to that, or if you have continuous resolutions that has been somehow the norm in the past few years.
That can cause short-term disruptions if we're basically, let's say we've won a new contract, which we have won a lot, and you get into a situation, for example, of a continuous resolution where, in that particular case, what happens is the government is precluded to be able to start activity on a new contract. But those are short-term issues and not reflective of long-term trends. And finally, I think the big thing about it is in Defense and in Civil, we enjoy the benefit of having very long-term contracts. So the backlog that you see will go without many, many years.
Kevin Chiang (Equity Research Analyst)
That's great color. Thank you very much, and have a great weekend.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director)
Good morning, and thank you. Maybe if I could ask a two-part question in terms of simulator deliveries, how you're thinking about this year with 50 as your previous guidance being weighted for Q4, but obviously, there was a pull forward into Q3, and how we think about the exit margin rate for fiscal Q4 given potentially less simulator deliveries that are implied and what it means for fiscal 2026.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
You want to add a little Nick.
Nick Leontidis (COO)
Sure. I mean, on the simulator deliveries, I mean, obviously, we're not changing any of our guidance. We have the same. It's going to be, I think, as we said, more than 50 sims. And obviously, you'll see the actual number. Some of this just depends when we're on the edge of March 31st. Some may be delivered in next fiscal year. But I don't see an issue with the guidance that we've given today. In terms of Q3, maybe I'll let Constantino, the Q4, excuse me.
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
Yeah. No. So what I think we'll see is, again, products being a higher proportion of the revenue mix going forward. And that's why we've also adjusted the guidance to say that we are modestly below the 22%-23% adjusted SOI margin range for the year.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director)
Okay. And that makes sense. And then maybe just another question on, again, we're seeing a growing divide among operators outlining expectations for GTF AOGs over the coming years. Some suggest AOGs should be unwinding from peak levels steadily in line with RTX's own commentary. Others, like Wizz, are talking about beyond 2026. So just maybe if you could touch on the GTF and what you're seeing for 2026, how we should be thinking about framing that?
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
I think, yeah, I think we can talk about it because typically, some of our large customers like IndiGo have that issue.
Nick Leontidis (COO)
Yeah. I mean, the overall, I mean, we do track the aircraft grounded, the A320neos. So the number is going down. I mean, it's certainly coming down from where it was. I mean, we have IndiGo, as an example, they're the largest Airbus operator of A320neos and have the largest fleet of grounded aircraft. And I mean, they are improving. So I think it's just a question of time as they catch up on some of the capacity issues they have to service all these engines in a timely manner. But definitely, I mean, they're a barometer to how this is going. And their fleet is improving. And we can see it through, obviously, training. So how long it's going to take, it's not really for me to say. But I think we definitely see improvement.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director)
Great. Thank you.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Thanks, Sheila.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Matthew Lee from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Matthew Lee (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, thanks for taking my question. I noticed in the quarter, you didn't really touch the NCIB, and I joined this call late. But just given the focus on deleveraging and maybe opportunity for tuck-ins as well as some of the CapEx you mentioned, how much of a priority is buying back shares at this juncture?
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
I think, maybe, I'll just kick it off. I mean, we've always had the same priority that we've had, that we prioritize accretive growth, but deleveraging is close behind. So let's pick up on that one. I mean, in the end of the day, I think we've said that NCIB, we would use it opportunistically, and we did. But I think today, I think we reflect that where the stock is at, that we thought we had better opportunities to use our cash flow a bit. Pick up on it, Dino?
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
Yeah. No, thanks, Marc. And good morning, Matthew. So we continue to take a real balanced capital allocation approach on guided investments where it makes sense and further bolstering our financial position through deleveraging. So we look at NCIB effectively, like Marc said, opportunistically over time affects us free cash flow. You saw in Q3, we did not purchase any additional shares because our focus is deleveraging.
Matthew Lee (Equity Research Analyst)
Do you guys have a target for the year in terms of NCIB usage or something we can point to in that regard, or is it just more opportunistic?
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
Absolutely more opportunistic. We focus on capital allocation, looking at all opportunities depending on excess free cash flow, but definitely more of an opportunistic approach.
Matthew Lee (Equity Research Analyst)
All right. Thanks, guys.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Cameron Doerksen from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
Cameron Doerksen (Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. Just a quick question on working capital. Obviously, a significant positive working capital reversal in Q3. Just wondering if there's anything, I guess, that you are doing differently to manage your working capital flows to, I guess, improve over time. Just anything you can point to specifically that maybe is a change from past practices to improve cash flow from working capital?
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
Cameron, thank you for asking the question. I'm particularly pleased with our record free cash flow generation, CAD 410 million this quarter. I think what you're seeing here really is the direct benefit of strong execution. Especially in Defense, this is allowing us to hit our billing milestones, right? And then we use our levers that we have at our disposal to unlock and reduce non-cash working capital to generate cash. Alongside continued strict inventory management, discipline, organic investments, obviously lock step with the market. This is the disciplined approach to managing our cash, and it's giving us continued confidence that we will meet our deleveraging commitments. So I think you saw in the guidance, we expect to deliver a cash conversion rate exceeding 150% in FY25 compared to our previous stated conversion rate target of about 100%. So this really is because of our focus on cash generation.
Cameron Doerksen (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. No, that's helpful. And maybe just as a follow-up, I mean, on the Defense side, and maybe this question for Marc, just on the Future Lead-in Fighter program in Canada, obviously, CAE selected to, I guess, manage that program and really cements you as the, for that future program. Can you just talk a little bit about what exactly your role is here on this program and kind of what the timeline might be for this to start actually contributing financially?
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Cameron. I'm particularly very pleased of that particular announcement. I mean, this is just another really great example of just how well CAE's position in a growth market, so what you see here, and I can tell you, I've been having personally these in-depth discussions with the government and then it's been shared later specifically in Defense. Canada is stepping up. The government is stepping up significantly its expenditures in Defense to maintain the preparedness and readiness of Canadian troops, and basically, again, that's Canada joining a chorus of nations that are doing just that, so what you see here is definitely a shift in previous practice. This is government putting a new mechanism in play to accelerate the procurement of military programs, and I can tell you, I've had a very personal role in working with government to make that happen.
I think this is. I would tell you, I mean, I'm very excited about this. It's good for Canada, it's good for CAE, it's good for the Canadian industry in a very, very big way. What you see here is we're becoming a key strategic partner. What we're going to be doing here is being recognized as a strategic partner on this program, FFLIT, is to essentially design and assist their project team in finalizing the procurement for requirements, accelerating the procurement process beyond anything that's been done in the past on the Future Fighter Lead-in program, which, of course, as I said, is going to prepare and train pilots for the transitions to the CF-35A. We had the announcement this week with the Minister Duclos, who's the Minister of Public Works responsible for the acquisition. I mean, just follow what they said.
They've got budgeted a CAD 5 billion program. That covers the acquisition of aircraft, training, courseware, procurement, instructors, on-site support for daily training delivery, asset management, the base support. By the way, all of the kind of stuff that we do, not only in Canada, but around the world. I mean, if you look at a huge contract that was signed just recently, the FAcT contract in Canada, we're doing exactly that for the phases of training that are before Future FFLIT. It's too early to say as to basically get very precise with regards to the timelines here, except that we're obviously starting immediately on this program. And the whole idea is to accelerate the procurement of this program so that basically capability will be there on the CF-35 enter service.
Cameron Doerksen (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. That's great detail. Appreciate it. Thanks very much.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Noah Popinak from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
Morning.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Just wanted to go further on the Civil margin. Appreciate all the detail you've provided thus far. I know you've expanded business jet capacity pretty significantly. Is that full, or are you in the process of filling that such that there's a utilization temporary issue in the margin? And then if we look at the aggregate acquired revenue in Civil of the last five years, has that been accretive or dilutive to the margin?
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Hey, I'll turn it over to Nick. The last question, I definitely say accretive. But go ahead, Nick.
Nick Leontidis (COO)
In your first question, yes, we do have a couple of training centers that are ramping up at the moment, namely Las Vegas and Savannah. We are, as you saw from the announcement. But the training center in Lake Nona is also in, I would say, almost at capacity. So I think there is definitely some drag that is coming from the ramp-up of those two training centers. Come next year, in April, we will be also opening Vienna. So there will be some there as well. Although Vienna will be ramped up quickly because we're just moving a lot of the assets that are going into Vienna initially are going to be assets that we already own and just moving around. So it shouldn't be too disruptive to the numbers themselves.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Maybe just adding, Noah, just basically look at the market itself. The global business jet fleet itself is expanding, right? That's not the order for fleet jets. But deliveries of aircraft out of the business jet OEM expect to be 12% higher year over year 2025. And consistent with basically previous forecasts, the proportion of that that's large jets—and I say large jets because that's what we're disproportionately—that's what disproportionately the amount of training we lose on large jets like the Gulfstreams, Falcons, the Global Expresses. They're expected to account about 2/3 of all expenditures of new business jets over the next five years. So if you look at the market, I mean, that's—you see about a four—I mean, I think I'm just reading for me this forecast here, 4.7% CAGR of large cabin business jet forecasts between the next five years versus about 2.9% CAGR for medium cabin.
I think even another factor that's particularly important for us and in concert of the SIMCOM acquisition is the fractional and charter operators, fractionals such as Flexjet, of course, continue to show extremely strong performance on a year-over-year basis, going much faster than the market itself. I mean, just look, fractional owner flight activity, to give you an example, is up 65% from 2019 levels, obviously prior to COVID. So year-over-year, just. I mean, even to take closer to now, I mean, year over year, fractional operators are up 11%. And of course, all of that reflects in the amount of expenditure we've made expanding our business centers like the ones that you mentioned, that Nick mentioned, Las Vegas. Of course, the acquisition of SIMCOM.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
So, I guess without putting a specific year on it, but if we just think about the period of time in the future when you have the full utilization of the business jet expansion you've done, and then you do not face Boeing and Airbus are delivering somewhere near demand, you don't have engines grounding airplanes, so that market's normal. Again, not putting a year on it, but just in the period of time in the future when all of your inputs are relatively normalized, what do the Civil margins look like?
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Higher. No, look, I mean, Noah, I mean, we're not going to get into the outlook today, but I think we, I think I said in my notes, I think I used the words and I'll repeat them. I think we have ample room to grow beyond that for the factors that you mentioned. And of course, more absorption of overhead, more of the leverage effect in our training centers. So I think all things being equal, I think the factors you mentioned will inevitably and quite deliberately make margins go higher.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. And then I just also wanted to ask a little bit more about the Defense margin. Did I hear correctly you say that there's only one more legacy contract that rolls off in your fiscal 2026?
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
In fiscal 2025, by the end of fiscal 2025, there's one more that we expect to roll off.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
Noah, that will leave five contracts going into next fiscal year. We started with eight, we'll take it down to three in the fiscal year coming in, and I think maybe just add a bit of color.
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
Yeah, yeah. Go ahead. Yeah.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
No, no. I was just going to ask maybe Nick, you want to add color on how you feel about those five programs?
Nick Leontidis (COO)
Yeah. I mean, I think I don't see, at least for now, I mean, we're on track with the remainder. Some of them are out next year or the year after. But I mean, they roll off as planned. And we feel pretty good about all the positions that we've taken to manage the remaining work and to manage the risk with the customer. So it's good that we have three out of the way, but we still have five, and we still need to pay close attention to execution on those programs. But I don't see, at least at the moment, I don't see any issues.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Understood. Thank you very much.
Andrew Arnovitz (SVP of Investor Relations)
Thank you. Operator, we'll take just one more question as we come up on the hour.
Operator (participant)
Sounds good. Our last question is from Benoit Poirier from Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Benoit Poirier (VP and Industrial Products Analyst)
Yes. Good morning, everyone. Just obviously on the free cash flow side, better than expected. Dino, you provide great color around the working cap for Q3. But when we look in terms of capital deployment, you intend to be below three times by year-end, so it's going to be a great achievement. Could you remind us your targeted level in terms of leverage longer term? And given the nice inflection on free cash flow discipline around CapEx, I'm just wondering how you see capital deployment once you're at the targeted level?
Constantino Malatesta (Interim CFO)
Benoit, thanks for the question, so effectively, like I said, we're really proud of the free cash flow conversion this year, this quarter, which is CAD 410 million, so when we look at CapEx, again, it's a matter of working and talking to deploying FFSs on the market based on what we see and from the situation we see with our customers. We don't want to be ahead of our customers. That's the approach we've been taking. We don't deploy FFSs in the market on spec. We invest organically to keep pace with the growth of our existing customer base, so that's why we constantly monitor the market situation. We're taking a focused approach, pro forma leverage. We want to make sure we continue to focus on investor-grade performance, and we're looking to be below the 2.5x net debt Adjusted EBITDA range by the end in the next fiscal year.
So continued focus on generating free cash flow, disciplined approach to CapEx, working lockstep with the market going forward.
Benoit Poirier (VP and Industrial Products Analyst)
Okay.
Andrew Arnovitz (SVP of Investor Relations)
Operator, basically.
Operator (participant)
Okay.
Andrew Arnovitz (SVP of Investor Relations)
Sorry, again, really quick.
Benoit Poirier (VP and Industrial Products Analyst)
Yeah, yeah, really quick. Just in terms of Defense margin, obviously, when we look at fiscal year 2026, you're going to run down further legacy contracts, but also at the same time, you'll be ramping up new business that I would assume will be accretive to margin. So can you point out to some direction we might see on Defense for margins for fiscal year 2026? That's it.
Marc Parent (President and CEO)
It does sound a little bit, but higher, obviously, Benoit. I mean, for the factors that we've talked before. I mean, but as you said, we're winning a lot of backlog here, and we're replacing the new backlog as they're accretive to the margin target that we have below double digits. And I've always said that 10% is a waypoint not a destination, but we're not going to get into the outlook today. You saw the strong execution. We're being very prudent of how we execute business for obvious reasons. So look, I think that we'll give you, as usual, outlook as we get into next quarter.
Benoit Poirier (VP and Industrial Products Analyst)
Thank you for the time.
Andrew Arnovitz (SVP of Investor Relations)
All right. Thanks very much to everyone joining us on the call today. I'll remind you that the transcript will be available later on our website, and we'll talk to you after the fact should you have any additional questions. Thanks very much.
Operator (participant)
That brings a close to today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.