CAR Q2 2025: Avis First Premium Rolls Out to 50 Markets, Lifts RPD 14%
- Avis First Premium Offering: The company is launching Avis First—a category‐defining, premium rental product priced with a marginal upgrade (as low as $10/day, roughly a 14% uplift on a typical $70 RPD) that can expand to over 50 markets by year end. This innovation positions them to capture additional revenue and improve margins by differentiating the customer experience.
- Strategic Autonomous Partnership: The partnership with Waymo in Dallas—designed to scale to additional cities—leverages Avis' long-standing expertise in mega fleet management within a potential autonomous mobility market worth hundreds of billions of dollars. This positions Avis to capitalize on long‑term structural growth beyond traditional car rentals.
- Strong Core Business & Discipline: Despite investing in new growth opportunities, Avis is committed to maintaining a robust rental car business with a normalized EBITDA floor of $1,000,000,000, underpinned by disciplined free cash flow generation and careful fleet management.
- Tariff and recall headwinds: The uncertainty around tariffs is delaying OEM production and forcing Avis to hold on to older model year cars longer, while massive recalls (affecting 4% of the fleet, particularly high RPD transit vans and minivans) are limiting the company’s ability to realize used car gains and increasing fleet management costs.
- Execution risk in scaling premium offerings: The nascent launch of Avis First, while innovative, faces the challenge of maintaining a high-quality premium experience as it scales rapidly to over 50 markets. Rushing growth could lead to compromised service quality and higher operational cost pressures.
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | FY 2025 | above $1B annually | $900 million to $1 billion | lowered |
Fleet Cost | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | net depreciation guidance for the year, noting minimal gains due to delays in cycling | no prior guidance |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Fleet Management and Rotation Strategies | Q1 2025 focused on an aggressive accelerated rotation strategy with record vehicle sales and improved utilization. Q4 2024 detailed an accelerated rotation strategy that resulted in a sizeable noncash impairment and emphasized refreshing the fleet. Q3 2024 highlighted progress in the model year 2025 fleet buy and plans to cycle out older vehicles. | Q2 2025 stressed Avis’ core competency in mega fleet management while addressing new challenges from tariffs and a significant recall that is forcing the company to hold vehicles longer and exercise caution for 2026 purchases. | Recurring theme with added external challenges—tariffs and recalls are now playing a larger role in complicating fleet rotation. |
Tariff Uncertainty and Cost Pressures | Q1 2025 mentioned tariffs in the context of cost management and planning for future model year purchases. Q4 2024 discussed tariff uncertainty with potential positive effects on residual values. Q3 2024 did not directly address tariffs, though cost pressures were noted. | Q2 2025 provided detailed commentary on how tariff uncertainty is delaying OEM production and delivery, forcing Avis to retain older vehicles and thereby increasing holding costs amid challenging market conditions. | Increased focus on the cascading impact of tariffs—shifting from a side note to a more dominant negative factor. |
Operational Efficiency and Digital Transformation | Q1 2025 emphasized digital fleet tools, a new customer app, and the use of machine learning to boost operational efficiency. Q4 2024 highlighted pilots of digital tools and app enhancements along with a proprietary pricing system. Q3 2024 discussed connected car technology and further digital initiatives in fleet management. | Q2 2025 did not include new updates on these initiatives, with no new operational efficiency or digital transformation topics mentioned [N/A]. | A consistent focus in prior periods, though notably absent in the current period discussions. |
Margin Pressure, Depreciation, and Noncash Charge Risks | Q1 2025 addressed elevated depreciation on older vehicles, a noncash charge related to fleet disposition, and resultant margin pressure. Q4 2024 detailed a massive $2.5 billion impairment and expected steep depreciation in Q1 2025. Q3 2024 mentioned increased depreciation rates and high holding costs. | Q2 2025 added that margin pressure is being exacerbated by recall impacts on high RPD segments and further depreciation issues due to delays in fleet rotation. | Ongoing concerns, now compounded by recall challenges that add extra pressure on margins and depreciation. |
Seasonal Demand Vulnerabilities and External Disruptions | Q1 2025 referred to calendar shifts and economic uncertainty impacting demand. Q4 2024 highlighted both strong holiday season performance and adjustments for leap year and key seasonal events. Q3 2024 elaborated on external disruptions like hurricanes and the national election affecting rental days. | Q2 2025 focused on how a massive recall occurring during the peak summer season, along with tariff‐induced delays, is creating significant operational headwinds. | A persistent theme where seasonal demand challenges are now compounded by recall issues during peak demand periods. |
Premium Product Innovation: Avis First | There was no mention of this topic in Q1 2025, Q4 2024, or Q3 2024 [N/A]. | Q2 2025 introduced Avis First—a new premium offering designed to deliver a first‐class rental experience at accessible pricing, and communicated plans for expansion into over 50 markets. | An emerging initiative marking a strategic push into higher–value service segments as Avis seeks to differentiate itself. |
Strategic Autonomous Partnership (Waymo) | Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 did not feature any discussion on an autonomous partnership, while Q3 2024 only hinted at readiness for future autonomous initiatives without specifics. | Q2 2025 presented a clear strategic partnership with Waymo in Dallas aimed at managing autonomous vehicle fleets, with discussions of potential expansion into additional markets. | A new and evolving focus that signals Avis’ commitment to autonomous mobility through strategic collaboration. |
Execution Risks in Scaling Premium Offerings | This topic was not mentioned in Q1 2025, Q4 2024, or Q3 2024 [N/A]. | Q2 2025 highlighted execution risks related to scaling Avis First too rapidly, with CEO Brian Choi stressing the need to balance expansion with maintaining customer experience and operational quality. | A newly raised risk factor, emphasizing careful scaling to avoid compromising the premium service quality. |
Diversification into Ride-Share and Digital Revenue Channels | Q1 2025 briefly mentioned the optimization of segment mix including ride-hail demand. Q3 2024 provided details on growing the ride-share business segment and enhancing digital channels via a new customer app. Q4 2024 did not touch on this theme [N/A]. | Q2 2025 discussed diversification indirectly by emphasizing the role of the Waymo autonomous ride-hailing partnership, aligning it with broader digital and mobility strategies. | A continuing focus that is evolving—from traditional ride-share discussions to incorporating autonomous ride-hailing as part of its diversification strategy. |
Competitive Pressures in Fleet Management | Q1 2025 stressed the need to efficiently manage fleet size amid competitive dynamics. Q4 2024 linked competitive pressure to the decision to accelerate fleet rotation based on cost advantages. Q3 2024 added insights on pricing and fleet utilization relative to competitors. | Q2 2025 discussed competitive pressures by emphasizing differentiation through premium offerings like Avis First, aimed at growing overall industry revenue rather than just shifting market share. | A persistent challenge with a strategic shift toward premium innovation as a means to overcome commodity–based competition. |
Recall Headwinds Impacting Fleet and Used Car Gains | Earlier periods (Q1 2025, Q4 2024) did not highlight recall issues; Q3 2024 discussed used car market dynamics without mentioning recalls explicitly [N/A]. | Q2 2025 focused on a significant recall affecting 4% of the Americas fleet, which is disrupting fleet recycling and impacting the ability to capitalize on used car gains. | A new, significant negative factor that is adversely affecting fleet rotation and used car market benefits. |
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Future Vision
Q: What is the future of Avis’ core business?
A: Management stressed that the rental car business remains the backbone of the company, with a target of normalized EBITDA of $1,000,000,000. They plan to use their deep fleet-management expertise to expand into autonomous mobility without deviating from disciplined free cash flow generation, ensuring continued long‐term strength. -
Guidance Dynamics
Q: How are tariffs and recalls affecting margins?
A: Management explained that delays in new fleet deliveries due to tariff uncertainties and a 4% recall on high-margin vehicles are putting pressure on depreciation gains and rental day rates, although current demand signals and improved DPU help offset these headwinds. -
Waymo Revenue Model
Q: What is the structure of the Waymo partnership?
A: Management outlined that the Dallas arrangement with Waymo is built on shared risks and rewards in mega fleet management. The model is evolving, with vehicles initially on Waymo’s balance sheet and modest depreciation gains this quarter, setting the stage for broader future collaborations. -
Investment KPIs
Q: How are new initiatives measured for success?
A: Management emphasized investments are judged by their ability to grow the business, boost free cash flow and enhance the customer experience. Initiatives like Avis First are designed to be margin accretive while maintaining disciplined cost structures and high service standards. -
Waymo Process
Q: Was the Waymo agreement reached through competitive talks?
A: Management noted that discussions with multiple autonomous players were held and that the process was collaborative, with both parties approaching the arrangement with clear eyes and shared objectives rather than a cutthroat competition. -
Premium Fleet
Q: Will Avis First change the fleet mix toward premium vehicles?
A: Management confirmed that while the program emphasizes delivering a first-class experience with newer, low-mileage vehicles, it isn’t limited to luxury models; even mainstream premium vehicles will be used to enhance overall customer satisfaction.
Research analysts covering AVIS BUDGET GROUP.