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Carisma Therapeutics Inc. (CARM)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2024 showed disciplined expense control and narrowed losses: net loss was $12.7M vs $21.4M YoY; total operating expenses fell to $16.5M from $26.2M YoY on R&D and G&A reductions tied to the Q2 restructuring .
  • Cash and cash equivalents were $26.9M, with management reiterating runway into Q3 2025; collaboration revenue was $3.4M in Q3 vs $9.2M in Q2 reflecting quarter-to-quarter variability .
  • CT-0525 Phase 1 initial results timing shifted to Q1 2025 (from “by year-end 2024”), while protocol amendments added repeat and bolus dosing and possible pembrolizumab combination arms to enhance clinical exploration .
  • Strategic focus: expanded in vivo CAR-M collaboration with Moderna to add two autoimmune targets; near-term catalysts include SITC Nov. 8 anti-GPC3 in vivo data and CT-0525 initial Phase 1 results in Q1 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • R&D expenses fell to $11.3M from $19.6M YoY, driven by the revised operating plan (CT-0508 halted, CT-1119 paused, workforce reduction), easing cash burn and narrowing losses .
  • Management broadened CT-0525 optionality via protocol amendment to test repeat dosing, bolus dosing, and pembrolizumab combinations—potentially improving clinical signal detection .
  • Strategic momentum: Moderna collaboration expanded to autoimmune indications and GPC3 hepatocellular carcinoma preclinical data scheduled for SITC, supporting pipeline visibility. “We are advancing on multiple fronts…including autoimmune targets,” said CEO Steven Kelly .

What Went Wrong

  • Collaboration revenue declined sequentially to $3.4M from $9.2M in Q2, compressing reported top-line and increasing operating loss relative to Q2 despite OpEx reductions .
  • CT-0525 initial data timeline slipped to Q1 2025 (from “by year-end 2024”), modestly delaying a key clinical catalyst and potentially extending the period before de-risking efficacy .
  • Equity moved to a stockholders’ deficit of $(11.1)M at 9/30/24 (vs $26.5M at 12/31/23), reflecting accumulated deficit growth and balance sheet pressure ahead of 2025 milestones .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Collaboration Revenues ($USD Millions)$3.827 $3.397 $9.197 $3.385
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(21.403) $(18.978) $(11.162) $(12.702)
Net Loss per Share (EPS, $USD)$(0.53) $(0.46) $(0.27) $(0.31)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$19.551 $17.462 $15.307 $11.326
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$6.620 $5.445 $5.560 $5.203
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$26.171 $22.907 $20.867 $16.529
Operating Loss ($USD Millions)$(22.344) $(19.510) $(11.670) $(13.144)
Cash & Cash Equivalents (Period End, $USD Millions)—$56.515 $40.362 $26.881

Segment breakdown: not applicable; Carisma reported collaboration revenue only, with no commercial product sales .

KPIs:

  • Weighted-average shares outstanding: 40.94M (Q1), 41.54M (Q2), 41.59M (Q3) .
  • Deferred revenue: $41.25M at 9/30/24 (vs $45.00M at 12/31/23) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
CT-0525 Phase 1 initial resultsQ4 2024 vs Q1 2025“Initial data by year-end 2024” (Q2) “Initial results from Cohorts 1 & 2 in Q1 2025” (Q3) Lowered (timing delayed)
CT-0525 dosing strategyQ3 2024Not previously guided Protocol amended for repeat dosing, bolus dosing, and pembrolizumab combo arms Raised (expanded clinical options)
Liver fibrosis dev. candidate nominationQ1 2025Q1 2025 (Q1/Q2) Q1 2025 (Q3) Maintained
In vivo anti-GPC3 preclinical dataNov 2024“Upcoming medical meeting” (Q2) SITC poster Nov. 8, 2024 (Q3) Clarified (timing specified)
Cash runwayThrough Q3 2025“Into Q3 2025” (Q1/Q2) “Into Q3 2025” (Q3) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: An earnings call transcript for Q3 2024 was not available in our document catalog; themes below reflect management’s prepared remarks and press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
CT-0525 timeline & strategyPrioritized CT-0525; first patient expected Q2; initial data by YE 2024 Initial results shifted to Q1 2025; protocol amendment adds repeat/bolus dosing and pembrolizumab combo arms Slight delay; broadened clinical approach
Moderna collaboration (oncology & autoimmune)Nominated in vivo CAR-M GPC3 candidate; $2.0M milestone; meeting presentation planned Collaboration expanded to two autoimmune targets; SITC Nov. 8 preclinical anti-GPC3 efficacy Expanded scope; concrete data milestone
Fibrosis programPreclinical PoC: relaxin+IL10 macrophages reduced liver fibrosis; dev. candidate targeted for Q1 2025 AASLD poster Nov. 15–19; dev. candidate nomination remains Q1 2025 Continued trajectory; timelines maintained
Corporate restructuring & OpExWorkforce reduction (~37%); focus on CT-0525; OpEx reductions R&D and G&A down YoY; net loss narrowed; board refresh in October Efficiency gains; governance refresh

Management Commentary

  • “We expect to report initial data from the Phase 1 study of CT-0525 in the first quarter of 2025…These key milestones move us closer to delivering transformative treatments for patients in need.” — Steven Kelly, President & CEO .
  • On pipeline breadth: “We…nominated our first development candidate in hepatocellular carcinoma with Moderna and are excited to bring additional in vivo CAR-M therapies forward, including autoimmune targets.” — Steven Kelly .
  • On operating discipline: Q3 R&D fell $8.3M YoY, with reductions linked to reprioritization (CT-0508 halted, CT-1119 paused, lower facilities/other expenses, reduced headcount) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Not available; no Q3 2024 earnings call transcript was found in our source documents.

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus estimates via S&P Global were unavailable for this period in our session; no beat/miss comparison is provided.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Expense discipline is working: R&D down to $11.3M and G&A to $5.2M, narrowing net loss to $12.7M YoY despite lower collaboration revenue sequentially .
  • Runway reiterated into Q3 2025; watch cash movements around collaboration milestones and upcoming data events (SITC, AASLD, CT-0525 initial results) .
  • CT-0525 remains the central value driver; protocol expansion could improve the chance of clinical signal but initial readout moved to Q1 2025—manage timing expectations accordingly .
  • Moderna collaboration expansion into autoimmune adds optionality and potential future milestones/royalties; near-term oncology preclinical readout for anti-GPC3 provides partnership validation .
  • Balance sheet pressure evident in stockholders’ deficit; financing risk persists until clinical validation; board refresh suggests continued governance focus .
  • No quantitative revenue/EPS guidance; focus near term should be on scientific de-risking events that can reset sentiment and access to capital .
  • Trading setup: catalysts cluster in Nov. (SITC/AASLD) and Q1 2025 (CT-0525 data); outcomes likely to be the key stock drivers given limited commercial metrics today .