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CG

CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Strong quarter with broad-based strength: revenue $4.57B, Diluted EPS $5.77, EBITDA $414.3M; EPS and revenue increased 19.5% and 11.5% YoY respectively, driven by higher inside and fuel gross profit and a larger store base .
  • Material beat vs consensus: EPS $5.77 vs $5.00*, revenue $4.57B vs $4.47B*, and EBITDA $414M vs $386M*; inside same‑store sales +4.3% and fuel margin 41.0¢ supported the upside .
  • FY26 outlook reaffirmed (no changes): EBITDA growth +10–12%, inside SSS +2–5% with ~41% margin, fuel SSS −1% to +1%, opex +8–10%, ≥80 store adds, net interest ~$110M, D&A ~$450M, capex ~$600M, tax 24–26% .
  • Potential stock reaction catalysts: outsized EPS beat vs consensus*, stronger-than-expected fuel margin (41.0¢) and positive August read‑through (fuel CPG near $0.40; trends “consistent with guidance”) .

Values with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Inside and fuel engines executed: inside SSS +4.3% (GGM +3.8%, PFDB +5.6%), inside margin 41.9% (+20 bps YoY), fuel SSS gallons +1.7% with 41.0¢ fuel margin; total inside GP +14.8% to $705.5M; fuel GP +18.8% to $373.6M .
  • CEO on execution: “Our fuel team did a tremendous job achieving same‑store gallon growth while maintaining a healthy fuel margin. Overall, robust same‑store sales combined with operating over 200 more stores than the prior year has led to outstanding financial results” .
  • Mix tailwinds and whole pie strength: GGM margin +50 bps YoY to 35.9% (mix shift to energy drinks and nicotine alternatives); whole pies led margin gains in prepared foods; PFDB margin at 58.0% despite SEFCO drag .

What Went Wrong

  • Prepared food margin headwind: PFDB margin down ~30 bps YoY due to lower-margin SEFCO stores, partially offset by pricing and COGS management .
  • Operating expense inflation: opex +14.6% YoY; about 10% from unit growth (221 more stores), ~1.5% from same-store employee expense; higher insurance/property taxes added ~1% .
  • Interest expense up on Fikes financing: net interest expense $26.9M, +$12.8M YoY; SEFCO Texas region under more pressure; prepared food margin drag improving but still ~110 bps in quarter .

Financial Results

Trend vs Prior Two Quarters (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026
Revenue ($USD Millions)3,903.6 3,992.8 4,567.1
Diluted EPS ($)2.33 2.63 5.77
EBITDA ($USD Millions)242.4 263.0 414.3
Inside Margin (%)40.9% 41.2% 41.9%
Fuel Margin (¢/gallon)36.4¢ 37.6¢ 41.0¢
Inside SSS (%)3.7% 1.7% 4.3%
PFDB SSS (%)4.7% 1.5% 5.6%
GGM SSS (%)3.3% 1.8% 3.8%
Fuel SSS Gallons (%)1.8% 0.1% 1.7%
Fuel Gross Profit ($USD Millions)302.1 307.8 373.6

Q1 2026 Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricActualConsensus# of Estimates
Revenue ($USD Millions)4,567.1 4,466.3*12*
Diluted EPS ($)5.77 5.00*12*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)414.3 386.2*—

Values with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025)

CategoryRevenue Q1 2026 ($MM)Revenue Q1 2025 ($MM)Gross Profit Q1 2026 ($MM)Gross Profit Q1 2025 ($MM)
Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage458.4 405.1 266.0 236.0
Grocery & General Merchandise1,225.4 1,069.0 439.5 378.3
Fuel2,733.7 2,555.6 373.6 314.5
Other149.6 68.0 33.4 26.4
Fuel Gallons (000s)911,780 772,536 ——

Additional KPIs

KPIQ1 2026
Available Liquidity~$1.4B
Cash & Equivalents$458.1M
Store Count (end of period)2,895 (down from 2,904 at 4/30/25)
Share Repurchases~$31M
Quarterly Dividend$0.57/share
RINs Sold$6.7M
Net Interest Expense$26.9M
Effective Tax Rate22.7%
Debt/EBITDA (covenant)1.8x
Free Cash Flow (Mgmt calc)~$262M (CFO: $372M CFO − $110M capex)
Fuel 3.0 Procurement~8.8% of combined fuel; ~3% base business
Cheese Cost & Hedging$2.11/lb (vs $2.09 LY); ~70% hedged for FY26

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q4 FY25)Current Guidance (Q1 FY26)Change
EBITDA GrowthFY26+10% to +12% +10% to +12% Maintained
Inside Same‑Store SalesFY26+2% to +5% +2% to +5% Maintained
Inside MarginFY26~41% ~41% Maintained
Fuel SSS GallonsFY26−1% to +1% −1% to +1% Maintained
Total Operating ExpensesFY26+8% to +10% +8% to +10% Maintained
Store OpeningsFY26≥80 (mix of M&A/NTIs) ≥80 (mix of M&A/NTIs) Maintained
Net Interest ExpenseFY26~$110M ~$110M Maintained
Depreciation & AmortizationFY26~$450M ~$450M Maintained
CapexFY26~$600M ~$600M Maintained
Tax RateFY26~24%–26% ~24%–26% Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends (Q3 FY25 → Q4 FY25 → Q1 FY26)

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3, Q4)Current Period (Q1 FY26)Trend
Fuel margins/market shareQ3: 36.4¢, SSG +1.8% ; Q4: 37.6¢, SSG +0.1% 41.0¢, SSG +1.7%; OPIS region −~3% implies share gains; Aug CPG near $0.40 Improving
SEFCO integrationQ3: one-time costs $13M; margin dilution PFDB margin drag ~110 bps (better vs 150–160 bps last year); Texas under pressure; remodels to drive synergies later Gradual improvement
Inside mix and whole piesQ3: PFDB margin 57.8%, coffee promo drag ; Q4: PFDB margin 57.8% PFDB 58.0%; whole pies accelerating, lifting margins Positive
Consumer & trafficQ3: inside SSS +3.7% ; Q4: +1.7% Inside SSS +4.3%; ~1.5% traffic, ~3% price; strong value perception Strengthening
Promotions/vendor fundingMentioned as driver (ongoing) Majority funded by vendor partners; higher absolute activity with scale Consistent
Cheese costs & hedging—$2.11/lb (vs $2.09 LY); ~70% hedged for FY26 Risk reduced
M&A pipelineFY25 adds 270 stores (record) Small deals “business as usual”; dialogue on larger opportunities Active
Guidance/seasonalityQ3: FY25 EBITDA ~+11% ; Q4: set FY26 outlook FY26 unchanged; update planned at Q2; Aug trends in-line Steady
Fuel 3.0 sourcing—~8.8% of combined gallons through Fuel 3.0; ~3% base Ramping

Management Commentary

  • “Inside same‑store sales were driven by positive traffic growth… Our fuel team did a tremendous job… achieving same‑store gallon growth while maintaining a healthy fuel margin” — Darren Rebelez, CEO .
  • “GGM margin was 35.9%, +50 bps YoY, driven primarily by favorable mix shift… Fuel margin $0.41/gal… inclusive of ~1.5¢ drag from SEFCO” — Steve Bramlage, CFO .
  • “We are about 70% locked on our forward cheese requirements for the remainder of this fiscal year… current cheese costs are slightly favorable versus the prior year” — Management .
  • On fuel strategy and value: guests view Casey’s as competitively priced; consistent execution reduces shopping around for price .

Q&A Highlights

  • Ingredients/hedging: ~70% of cheese needs locked for Q2–Q4; costs slightly favorable YoY .
  • Fuel 3.0 update: ~8.8% of combined fuel procured (majority from Fikes terminal); ~3% in base business .
  • Price vs volume: ~1.5% traffic and ~3% price drove inside SSS; cigarette price pass-throughs; modest pricing otherwise; higher units per basket .
  • SEFCO trajectory: PFDB margin drag improving (~110 bps); remodels and kitchen conversions needed for full synergy capture; Texas under more pressure until conversion .
  • Promotions: large portion vendor-funded; higher activity with scale does not directly hit P&L .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 FY26 beats: EPS $5.77 vs $5.00*; revenue $4.57B vs $4.47B*; EBITDA $414M vs $386M*; 12 estimates underpin EPS and revenue consensus* .
  • Likely estimate revisions: inside SSS momentum (+4.3%), fuel CPG (41.0¢) and August read-through (near $0.40 CPG) argue for upward revisions to FY26 EPS/EBITDA and potentially inside margin assumptions, while higher opex and interest temper upside .

Values with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Broad-based strength with inside and fuel both contributing; margin outcomes (41.9% inside, 41.0¢ fuel) support elevated profitability into Q2 seasonally strong months .
  • EPS/revenue/EBITDA all beat consensus*, with August commentary suggesting momentum is intact; this combination can sustain positive sentiment near term .
  • Mix tailwinds (energy drinks, nicotine alternatives) and whole pie acceleration underpin inside margin durability even before SEFCO kitchen conversions ramp .
  • SEFCO drag is moderating; larger synergy unlock is back‑half/next‑year weighted as remodels progress, creating a medium‑term earnings catalyst .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity remain strong (1.8x covenant leverage; $1.4B liquidity) enabling continued buybacks and store growth alongside M&A optionality .
  • Watch drivers: fuel CPG normalization vs Q1 strength, opex cadence (mid‑teens in Q2 as comps include no prior‑year Fikes), and interest expense run‑rate .
  • Tactical: Near term, the combination of a sizable EPS beat*, unchanged guide with positive August color, and robust fuel margins is supportive; medium term, SEFCO remodel synergies and continued unit growth bolster the 8–10% EBITDA growth algorithm .