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CB

CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE, INC (CBRL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY2025 was in line with expectations: revenue $845.1M (+2.6% YoY), GAAP EPS $0.22, adjusted EPS $0.45, adjusted EBITDA $45.8M (+4.3% YoY) .
  • Comparable-store restaurant sales rose 2.9% (pricing +4.7%), outpacing the Black Box casual dining industry by ~290 bps; comparable retail fell 1.6% .
  • Management reaffirmed FY2025 outlook (revenue $3.4–$3.5B; adjusted EBITDA $200–$215M; capex $160–$180M), and declared a $0.25 dividend payable Feb 12, 2025 .
  • Call nuance: dinner traffic improved by ~600 bps YoY and ~200 bps QoQ; however, a ~$6M Q1 gift-card breakage timing benefit will be a headwind in Q2 with no offset identified, a near-term trading catalyst to watch .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Comparable-store restaurant sales +2.9% with improved dinner trends; CEO: “We… saw continued improvement in the dinner daypart” .
    • Strategic initiatives gaining traction: menu innovation (e.g., Hashbrown Casserole Shepherd’s Pie, Pot Roast), pricing optimization with favorable mix, and loyalty driving incremental sales .
    • Adjusted EBITDA up 4.3% YoY to $45.8M; GAAP net income positive ($4.8M) and dividend maintained at $0.25/share .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Retail softness persisted: comparable-store retail sales -1.6% in Q1, echoing broader discretionary headwinds .
    • Cost items and reserves: ~$9.3M atypical costs (workers’ comp and general liability reserve increases, wage-and-hour settlement, hurricane impact, DM conference) outweighed a $6M gift-card breakage timing benefit; net ~$3.3M EBITDA drag .
    • Interest expense remained elevated and is expected to rise with planned refinancing of the $300M convertible debt at higher coupons later in FY2025 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$817.1 $894.4 $845.1
GAAP EPS ($)($0.41) $0.81 $0.22
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.88 $0.98 $0.45
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)($9.2) $18.1 $4.8
Net Income Margin (%)(1.1%) 2.0% 0.6%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$47.9 $57.4 $45.8
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
Restaurant Revenue Mix (%)82.2% 81.8% 80.9%
Retail Revenue Mix (%)17.8% 18.2% 19.1%

Segment revenue (Cracker Barrel stores only; excludes Maple Street Biscuit Company):

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Restaurant Revenue ($USD Millions)$654.4 $713.0 $666.4
Retail Revenue ($USD Millions)$145.4 $162.7 $161.6
Total ($USD Millions)$799.8 $875.7 $828.0

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Comp Restaurant Sales (%)(1.5%) +0.4% +2.9%
Comp Retail Sales (%)(3.8%) (4.2%) (1.6%)
Menu Pricing (%)+4.0% +4.2% +4.7%
Off-Premise as % of Restaurant Sales18.4%
Average Check Growth (%)+5.8%
Mix Effect (%)+1.1%
Dinner Traffic Change+600 bps YoY; +200 bps QoQ

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue ($USD)FY2025$3.4B–$3.5B $3.4B–$3.5B Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)FY2025$200M–$215M $200M–$215M Maintained
Capital Expenditure ($USD)FY2025$160M–$180M $160M–$180M Maintained
Commodity Inflation (%)FY20252%–3% 2%–3% Maintained
Hourly Wage Inflation (%)FY20253%–4% 3%–4% Maintained
Unit OpeningsFY20252 CB stores; 3–4 Maple Street 2 CB stores; 3–4 Maple Street Maintained
DividendQ1 FY2025$0.25 declared (Nov 13, 2024 payable) $0.25 declared (Feb 12, 2025 payable) Maintained

Note: Later in Q3 FY2025, guidance was raised to adjusted EBITDA $215M–$225M (no change needed for Q1 recap, but relevant for trend) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Dinner DaypartSofter traffic; below expectations, transformation needed Early progress; remodel and operational excellence highlighted +600 bps YoY, +200 bps QoQ improvement; menu innovations resonating Improving
Pricing & ValuePricing ~4.0%; traffic softness Optimized pricing; remodel program Pricing +4.7%; favorable mix +1.1%; value scores improving Positive flow-through
Loyalty Program>6M members; higher frequency and check; retail cross-sell tests successful Scaling
Back-of-House OptimizationPhase 1 expanding; labor productivity focus; part of $50–$60M structural savings over 3 years Early deployment
Remodel ProgramProgress on pilot stores; testing tiers 25–30 remodels + 25–30 refreshes planned; test-and-learn year Ongoing testing
Retail StrategyRetail comps weak Retail differentiation; inventory/margin management Holiday promotions; margins ahead in Q1 but full-year retail margins expected a bit unfavorable Mixed
Off-Premise/ThanksgivingShifted strategy to prioritize dine-in experience and profitability; executed well More balanced
Financing/InterestConvertible $300M refinancing expected at higher coupons; interest expense to increase Headwind ahead

Management Commentary

  • CEO (Julie Masino): “We delivered first quarter results that were in line with our expectations… and we saw continued improvement in the dinner daypart.” .
  • CEO on menu and value: “Our optimized pricing initiative is delivering strong flow-through… Cracker Barrel Rewards is delivering incremental sales and traffic.” .
  • CFO (Craig Pommells): “We reported total revenue of $845.1 million… Comparable store restaurant sales increased 2.9%… Pricing was approximately 4.7%.” .
  • CFO on cost items: “Headwind is about $9.3 million… all included in GAAP and adjusted results; net drag to EBITDA of about $3.3 million after $6 million breakage benefit.” .
  • CFO on outlook: “We reaffirm our FY’25 outlook… adjusted EBITDA of approximately $200 million to $215 million… capex of $160 million to $180 million.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Gift-card breakage timing: ~$6M benefited Q1 sales/EBITDA at corporate level; largely reverses and becomes a headwind in Q2 with no identified offsets .
  • Back-of-house optimization: Focused on labor productivity and job ease; part of a $50–$60M multiyear structural cost savings plan .
  • Check dynamics: Average check +5.8% (price +4.7%, mix +1.1%), aided by dinner and premium barbell items .
  • Loyalty program: >6M members, higher spend and frequency; effective retail cross-sell via targeted offers .
  • Remodel tiers: 25–30 high/medium/low remodels plus 25–30 refreshes in FY2025; test-and-learn to optimize ROI mix .
  • Regional trends: Stronger in Northeast/Midwest; softer in Texas; steady from September to October .

Estimates Context

  • Consensus EPS and revenue estimates from S&P Global were unavailable due to a daily request limit error; we cannot quantify beat/miss versus Wall Street consensus for Q1 FY2025 at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Management characterized results as “in line with our expectations,” suggesting limited surprise versus internal plans; the explicit $6M Q1 breakage timing benefit and expected Q2 reversal may prompt intra-quarter estimate rebalancing (EBITDA phasing) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Restaurant momentum: Dinner traffic and menu innovation are improving mix and check, supporting comps and margin flow-through .
  • Near-term risk: Q2 will face a ~$6M headwind from gift-card breakage timing with no identified offsets; could pressure quarterly EBITDA despite full-year reaffirmation .
  • Retail remains mixed: Inventory/margins well managed; topline still pressured; management expects full-year retail margins to be “a bit unfavorable” .
  • Cost program early but tangible: Back-of-house phase rollout aims at labor productivity; part of $50–$60M structural savings over three years .
  • Capital and financing watch: Expected refinancing of $300M converts at higher coupons implies rising interest expense—monitor leverage and coverage metrics .
  • FY2025 outlook steady: Reaffirmed revenue and adjusted EBITDA with maintained capex and inflation assumptions; dividend held at $0.25 .
  • Trading setup: Q1 print in line; Q2 headwind and dinner momentum create dispersion risk—watch comp trends, margin flow-through, and any update to FY phasing on the next call .

Footnote: *Consensus estimates were not retrievable due to S&P Global daily request limit; we will update beat/miss analysis once data access resumes.