CB
CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE, INC (CBRL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 FY2025 was in line with expectations: revenue $845.1M (+2.6% YoY), GAAP EPS $0.22, adjusted EPS $0.45, adjusted EBITDA $45.8M (+4.3% YoY) .
- Comparable-store restaurant sales rose 2.9% (pricing +4.7%), outpacing the Black Box casual dining industry by ~290 bps; comparable retail fell 1.6% .
- Management reaffirmed FY2025 outlook (revenue $3.4–$3.5B; adjusted EBITDA $200–$215M; capex $160–$180M), and declared a $0.25 dividend payable Feb 12, 2025 .
- Call nuance: dinner traffic improved by ~600 bps YoY and ~200 bps QoQ; however, a ~$6M Q1 gift-card breakage timing benefit will be a headwind in Q2 with no offset identified, a near-term trading catalyst to watch .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- Comparable-store restaurant sales +2.9% with improved dinner trends; CEO: “We… saw continued improvement in the dinner daypart” .
- Strategic initiatives gaining traction: menu innovation (e.g., Hashbrown Casserole Shepherd’s Pie, Pot Roast), pricing optimization with favorable mix, and loyalty driving incremental sales .
- Adjusted EBITDA up 4.3% YoY to $45.8M; GAAP net income positive ($4.8M) and dividend maintained at $0.25/share .
- What Went Wrong
- Retail softness persisted: comparable-store retail sales -1.6% in Q1, echoing broader discretionary headwinds .
- Cost items and reserves: ~$9.3M atypical costs (workers’ comp and general liability reserve increases, wage-and-hour settlement, hurricane impact, DM conference) outweighed a $6M gift-card breakage timing benefit; net ~$3.3M EBITDA drag .
- Interest expense remained elevated and is expected to rise with planned refinancing of the $300M convertible debt at higher coupons later in FY2025 .
Financial Results
Segment revenue (Cracker Barrel stores only; excludes Maple Street Biscuit Company):
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Note: Later in Q3 FY2025, guidance was raised to adjusted EBITDA $215M–$225M (no change needed for Q1 recap, but relevant for trend) .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (Julie Masino): “We delivered first quarter results that were in line with our expectations… and we saw continued improvement in the dinner daypart.” .
- CEO on menu and value: “Our optimized pricing initiative is delivering strong flow-through… Cracker Barrel Rewards is delivering incremental sales and traffic.” .
- CFO (Craig Pommells): “We reported total revenue of $845.1 million… Comparable store restaurant sales increased 2.9%… Pricing was approximately 4.7%.” .
- CFO on cost items: “Headwind is about $9.3 million… all included in GAAP and adjusted results; net drag to EBITDA of about $3.3 million after $6 million breakage benefit.” .
- CFO on outlook: “We reaffirm our FY’25 outlook… adjusted EBITDA of approximately $200 million to $215 million… capex of $160 million to $180 million.” .
Q&A Highlights
- Gift-card breakage timing: ~$6M benefited Q1 sales/EBITDA at corporate level; largely reverses and becomes a headwind in Q2 with no identified offsets .
- Back-of-house optimization: Focused on labor productivity and job ease; part of a $50–$60M multiyear structural cost savings plan .
- Check dynamics: Average check +5.8% (price +4.7%, mix +1.1%), aided by dinner and premium barbell items .
- Loyalty program: >6M members, higher spend and frequency; effective retail cross-sell via targeted offers .
- Remodel tiers: 25–30 high/medium/low remodels plus 25–30 refreshes in FY2025; test-and-learn to optimize ROI mix .
- Regional trends: Stronger in Northeast/Midwest; softer in Texas; steady from September to October .
Estimates Context
- Consensus EPS and revenue estimates from S&P Global were unavailable due to a daily request limit error; we cannot quantify beat/miss versus Wall Street consensus for Q1 FY2025 at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Management characterized results as “in line with our expectations,” suggesting limited surprise versus internal plans; the explicit $6M Q1 breakage timing benefit and expected Q2 reversal may prompt intra-quarter estimate rebalancing (EBITDA phasing) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Restaurant momentum: Dinner traffic and menu innovation are improving mix and check, supporting comps and margin flow-through .
- Near-term risk: Q2 will face a ~$6M headwind from gift-card breakage timing with no identified offsets; could pressure quarterly EBITDA despite full-year reaffirmation .
- Retail remains mixed: Inventory/margins well managed; topline still pressured; management expects full-year retail margins to be “a bit unfavorable” .
- Cost program early but tangible: Back-of-house phase rollout aims at labor productivity; part of $50–$60M structural savings over three years .
- Capital and financing watch: Expected refinancing of $300M converts at higher coupons implies rising interest expense—monitor leverage and coverage metrics .
- FY2025 outlook steady: Reaffirmed revenue and adjusted EBITDA with maintained capex and inflation assumptions; dividend held at $0.25 .
- Trading setup: Q1 print in line; Q2 headwind and dinner momentum create dispersion risk—watch comp trends, margin flow-through, and any update to FY phasing on the next call .
Footnote: *Consensus estimates were not retrievable due to S&P Global daily request limit; we will update beat/miss analysis once data access resumes.