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    CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE (CBRL)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 9, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$41.56Last close (Sep 18, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$43.99Open (Sep 19, 2024)
    Price Change
    $2.43(+5.85%)
    • Effective pricing strategy and strong margin momentum: Management's guidance of 5% menu pricing with proven strong flow‐through and minimal traffic impact demonstrates confidence in driving profitability even in a challenging backdrop.
    • Robust loyalty program driving repeat business: The new loyalty program, with 6 million active members that transact 25% of all transactions and visit 50% more frequently than nonmembers, reinforces customer stickiness and revenue growth.
    • Positive same-store sales and traffic improvements: Management highlighted stable and improving traffic trends in key segments—especially dinner performance among higher income cohorts—which supports sustainable underlying sales growth.
    • Weak Traffic Trends & Customer Cohort Concerns: The quarter reported negative 4% traffic and mixed performance among key segments—with lower spend noted among the under $60K annual income cohort—which could signal continued challenges in driving consistent guest visits.
    • Pricing Execution Risks: The company’s strategy to implement a 5% menu pricing increase through multiple tiered pricing actions raises concerns about whether flow‐through will continue without dampening customer demand, potentially impacting traffic and customer perception.
    • Elevated Cost Pressures & Delayed Savings: Fiscal '25 is positioned as an investment year with increased spending on labor, marketing, and capital expenditures, while anticipated cost savings of $50–60 million are deferred to later periods, which may pressure near-term margins.
    1. Same-Store Guidance
      Q: Are same-store sales low single-digit?
      A: Management confirmed that on a 52‑week basis, guidance implies roughly 1% sales growth—with strategic initiatives and modest pricing adjustments underpinning steady same-store performance.

    2. Pricing Breakdown
      Q: How is the 5% menu pricing achieved?
      A: They explained that the 5% increase is a blended, multivariate approach—combining carryforward and new pricing actions tested for smooth flow-through with minimal traffic impact.

    3. Cost Savings
      Q: Are future cost-savings targets intact?
      A: Management reiterated their commitment to achieving $50–60 million in savings over three years, noting that fiscal '25 will be an investment year with benefits expected to accelerate later.

    4. Remodel Plans
      Q: What strategy is used for store remodels?
      A: They are testing multiple upgrade options—high, medium, low, and a new refresh option—that have already shown promising results in increased traffic and sales.

    5. Store Portfolio
      Q: Any planned store closures?
      A: Management emphasized that there are no planned closures and that the store portfolio is under continual evaluation to ensure optimal performance.

    6. Guest Frequency
      Q: What is the current guest frequency?
      A: They noted that non-loyalty guests visit just under 2× per year, while loyalty members enjoy approximately 50% more frequent visits.

    7. Traffic Mix Details
      Q: How did traffic and mix perform this quarter?
      A: Reported traffic declined by 4%, with a slight improvement in mix of 0.2%, highlighting uneven performance across different store cohorts.

    8. Loyalty Program Metrics
      Q: How effective is the new loyalty program?
      A: The program, now about a year old, has already attracted 6 million members, with loyal customers showing higher frequency and increased spend.

    9. Customer Demographics
      Q: Were there any notable demographic shifts?
      A: Customer demographics have remained largely stable, with a modest recovery noted among the 65+ age group, despite some declines in lower-income cohorts.

    10. Pricing Timing
      Q: When did recent pricing actions take effect?
      A: Pricing adjustments have been implemented in multiple, smaller, periodic actions throughout the year, ensuring a smooth transition without major disruptions.

    Research analysts covering CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE.