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CB

COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • CBSH delivered a clean beat: diluted EPS of $1.14 vs S&P Global consensus $1.05*, and total revenue of $445.8M vs consensus $435.9M*, driven by record net interest income (NII), 14 bps sequential NIM expansion to 3.70%, and firm fee income mix (37% of revenue) .
  • Profitability improved across the board: ROAA 1.95%, ROAE 17.40%, efficiency 54.8%; credit costs remained low with NCOs 0.22% and non‑accruals 0.11% of loans .
  • Deposits were stable (avg +$63M q/q), cost of interest-bearing deposits fell 5 bps to 1.67% (total deposit cost 1.18%), and average loans grew 1.5% q/q; NII reached a new record at $280.1M .
  • Strategic: Announced acquisition of FineMark; management expects ~6% 2026 GAAP EPS accretion, 1.6-yr TBVPS earnback, minimal CET1 impact; buybacks slowed to $10M in Q2 vs $55M in Q1 .

Note: Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • NIM expansion and record NII: Net yield on interest-earning assets rose to 3.70% (+14 bps q/q), and NII hit a record $280.1M (+4% q/q, +7% y/y) supported by asset repricing, higher loan demand, and lower funding costs .
  • Fee-income resilience and diversification: Non-interest income rose to $165.6M (+4% q/q, +9% y/y), with trust fees +6% y/y and strong “Other” driven by $5.5M gains on sales of assets and tax credit sales income .
  • Credit quality remained excellent: NCOs 0.22%, non-accruals 0.11%; ACL/loans at 0.94% with coverage to NALs at 8.8x; office CRE metrics solid (TTM office NCOs 0.00%, NPLs 0.00%) .
  • Management tone: “Commerce delivered a strong financial performance… supported by loan growth, strong fee income, low credit costs and continued disciplined expense management” — CEO John Kemper .

What Went Wrong

  • Expense growth: Non-interest expense rose 3% q/q and 5% y/y to $244.4M, including $1.9M acquisition-related costs and higher salaries/benefits; efficiency improved but opex is trending up y/y .
  • Card fee softness vs prior year: Bank card transaction fees were down 2% y/y on corporate and credit card pressure (higher rewards expense), partially offset by q/q improvement .
  • Securities gains/losses volatility: Net investment securities gains were modest at $0.4M, swinging from ($7.6M) in Q1; AFS portfolio AOCI remained a headwind despite q/q improvement (AOCI loss $(581)M vs $(635)M in Q1) .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Profitability (oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenue ($M)$414.5 $428.1 $445.8
Net Interest Income ($M)$262.2 $269.1 $280.1
Non-Interest Income ($M)$152.2 $158.9 $165.6
Non-Interest Expense ($M)$232.2 $238.4 $244.4
Net Income ($M)$139.6 $131.6 $152.5
Diluted EPS ($)$1.03 $0.98 $1.14
Net Yield on IEA (NIM)3.55% 3.56% 3.70%
Efficiency Ratio55.95% 55.61% 54.77%
ROAA1.86% 1.69% 1.95%
ROAE18.52% 15.82% 17.40%

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
EPS (diluted)$1.05*$1.14 +$0.09 (+8.6%)*
Total Revenue ($M)$435.9*$445.8 +$9.9 (+2.3%)*

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Non-Interest Income Breakdown ($M, oldest → newest)

Line ItemQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Trust Fees$52.3 $56.6 $55.6
Bank Card Transaction Fees$47.5 $45.6 $46.4
Deposit Account Charges & Other Fees$25.3 $26.6 $26.2
Capital Market Fees$4.8 $5.1 $6.2
Consumer Brokerage$4.5 $4.8 $5.4
Loan Fees & Sales$3.4 $3.4 $3.4
Other$14.5 $16.8 $22.5
Total Non-Interest Income$152.2 $158.9 $165.6

Key Banking KPIs (oldest → newest)

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Avg Loans ($B)$17.17 $17.24 $17.50
Avg Deposits ($B)$24.29 $24.86 $24.92
Avg Loans/Deposits70.73% 69.38% 70.22%
Cost of Interest-Bearing Deposits1.99% 1.72% 1.67%
Total Cost of Deposits (reported)1.22% (Q1 ref)1.18%
NCO / Avg Loans0.23% 0.25% 0.22%
Non-Accrual Loans / Loans0.11% 0.13% 0.11%
ACL / Loans0.92% 0.96% 0.94%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Quarterly Dividend/ShareQ3 2025 payable Sept 23$0.275$0.275Maintained
FineMark Acquisition TimingCloseExpected January 1, 2026New transaction timing
FineMark Deal Economics2026 GAAP EPS~6% accretive; TBVPS earnback ~1.6 yrs; minimal CET1 impactNew pro forma outlook

Management did not issue formal numeric guidance for revenue, NIM, opex, or tax; qualitative outlook includes: ~$1.3B of AFS cash flows over next 12 months and four SOFR loan floors to protect NII; total deposit cost trending down .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in our document set; the company provided an earnings release and an earnings highlights presentation .

TopicQ4 2024 (Q‑2)Q1 2025 (Q‑1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
NIM / FundingNIM 3.49%, flat to down 1 bp; deposit costs easing NIM 3.56% (+7 bps); deposit costs -15 bps NIM 3.70% (+14 bps); deposit cost 1.18% (total), 1.67% (interest‑bearing) Improving
Fee MixTrust up 14.6% y/y Trust up 10.7% y/y Trust +6% y/y; “Other” strong on asset sales/tax credits Positive, moderated
CreditNCO 0.25%, NAL 0.11% NCO 0.25%, NAL 0.13% NCO 0.22%, NAL 0.11%; office CRE metrics clean Stable/benign
OpexDown y/y; lower FDIC assessment Flat q/q; mix shift in benefits/prof services Up 3% q/q; acquisition-related costs Mild headwind
Technology / InvestmentsOngoing investments; balance sheet repositioning Emphasis on execution; earnings leverage Continued investments (core, digital); loan floors added Ongoing
Capital / BuybacksTCE 9.92% Buybacks $55M (Q1 ref)Buybacks $10M; BVPS $27.43 (+5% q/q) Disciplined

Management Commentary

  • “Commerce delivered a strong financial performance in the second quarter… supported by loan growth, strong fee income, low credit costs and continued disciplined expense management” — John Kemper, CEO .
  • “Net interest income of $280 million was another record quarter… reflects the continued benefits of fixed-rate asset repricing, higher loan demand, and our strong deposit franchise. Non-interest income was $166 million and made up 37.2% of total revenue…” — John Kemper, CEO .
  • On FineMark: “With this acquisition, FineMark will bring new capabilities… Commerce will add scale and depth with resources, capital, operational infrastructure, regulatory experience, and long-term stability” — John Kemper, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was available in our document set. The company furnished an earnings highlights presentation and detailed press release; no additional Q&A disclosures beyond these materials were found .

Estimates Context

  • EPS and revenue exceeded S&P Global consensus: $1.14 EPS vs $1.05*, and $445.8M revenue vs $435.9M*; # of estimates: EPS (6), revenue (3)* .
  • Beats were driven by: record NII; sequential NIM expansion (+14 bps) from asset repricing and lower deposit costs; modest net securities gains ($0.4M) and a lower provision vs Q1; fee strength in trust and “Other” categories .

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • High-quality beat with positive operating leverage: NIM tailwinds and fee diversification supported EPS outperformance; watch for sustainability as rates evolve .
  • Funding costs rolling over: total deposit cost down to 1.18%, interest-bearing 1.67%; layered SOFR loan floors mitigate downside to NII in a declining rate scenario .
  • Credit benign and well-reserved: NCOs 0.22%, ACL 0.94% of loans, non-accruals 0.11%; office CRE portfolio shows conservative attributes and clean performance .
  • Expense discipline vs M&A costs: opex up 3% q/q and 5% y/y with $1.9M acquisition-related professional fees; underlying efficiency trend remains solid (54.8%) .
  • Capital and buybacks: strong capital ratios with BVPS +5% q/q; buybacks moderated to $10M in Q2 — expect flexibility around M&A and balance sheet priorities .
  • FineMark is a 2026 EPS accretive catalyst (~6%) with manageable TBVPS impact (1.6-yr earnback) and minimal CET1 drag; integration risk appears contained per management .
  • Near-term estimate revisions likely upward on NIM/NII and fee strength; model modestly higher 2H NII with stable credit costs and mid‑50s efficiency, offset by incremental M&A-related expenses .

Additional Materials Consulted

  • Q2 2025 Form 8-K with Exhibit 99.1 (press release) and Exhibit 99.2 (Earnings Highlights) .
  • Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 earnings press releases for trend analysis .
  • Dividend declaration press release dated July 25, 2025 .