The Chemours Company - Q1 2023
April 28, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, and welcome to The Chemours Company first quarter 2023 earnings call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you'll need to press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Jonathan Lock, SVP and Chief Development Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Lock (SVP and Chief Development Officer)
Hi. Thanks, Julianne. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Chemours Company's first quarter 2023 earnings Q&A conference call. I'm joined today by Mark Newman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sameer Ralhan, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we start, I'd like to remind you that comments made on this call, as well as in the supplemental information provided in our presentation and on our website, contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that may not be realized. Actual results may differ, and Chemours undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements as a result of future developments or new information.
During the course of this call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful to investors evaluating the company's performance. A reconciliation of non-GAAP terms and adjustments are included in our release and at the end of our presentation. As a reminder, our prepared remarks, a full transcript, plus our earnings deck have been posted to our website alongside our earnings release. This morning's call will focus purely on Q&A. With that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Mark Newman. Mark?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Thank you, Jonathan, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Our strong performance in the first quarter is a testament to our secular growth thesis at work and the strength of our overall portfolio. TSS and APM continue to deliver products the world needs and which underpin many strategic as well as emerging technologies. Despite the challenges faced by our TT segment, we remain confident in a gradual recovery throughout the year, with improvements in margins, moderating raw material costs, and cost optimization measures implemented across the portfolio. With a strong first quarter, we are reaffirming our full-year guidance, but we acknowledge the uncertainty of the macro environment and its potential impact on the second half of the year. We're closely monitoring the situation, and we're prepared to adapt as necessary. With that, Julianne, let's move to questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up question. Thank you. Our first question comes from Duffy Fischer from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Duffy Fischer (Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Chemicals)
Yes, good morning. First question just on TSS. With the step-down or the pending step-down, can you go through how much of the price benefit you've seen over the last year has come from the HFO side, kind of the mix shift, and how much has come from HFC, just kind of, you know, getting squeezed on volume? What's your expectation this year in the U.S., kind of what the market share between HFC and HFO will be for the market?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Yes. Duffy, as you recall, great question. You know, the step-down of 10% last year, you know, continues at that level through the end of this year, where there's a 30% step-down. You know, our view would be, you know, there will be folks buying ahead in the second half of the year, potentially, of that step-down. Obviously in a, in a market with, you know, constrained supply, you know, that will continue to support prices. We did not expect, you know, significant year-over-year price increases like we saw last year, we do expect the market to remain dynamic.
On your question on HFO volumes, clearly, you know, volume growth in our portfolio, which you saw in the first quarter, is tied to both HFO adoption as well as a strong auto OEM market, which really benefited us. I'm gonna ask Sameer to make a couple more comments, but I think those are the big headlines.
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, Mark. Duffy, the only other comment I would add is, as you kind of think about the pricing, you should really think about the realization. As the quota steps down, we think about pricing not just from just one product point of view, think about the optimization across the portfolio, just to make sure we can meet the all the needs of the customers and really maximize the, on the pricing side as well. Think about an optimization problem across the product portfolio rather than just focusing on product by product.
Duffy Fischer (Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Chemicals)
Fair enough. Thanks. Then on TiO2, again, another quarter where your sell into customers is significantly lower than what their sellout has been. You know, again, you go back a year ago, there didn't seem to be any TiO2 inventory in the system anywhere. Can you just kinda triangulate the math of how did we build as much inventory maybe over last summer as it seems like we've destocked from the fall through today? What gives you confidence that, you know, or when do you think we'll get back to where your sell in and their sell out is somewhat even on the TiO2 side?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
The year started off relatively slowly. You know, we predicted what we expect to be a gradual recovery. Sequentially, our volumes are up 1%, but down year-over-year. As we look at the market, what we're seeing is, you know, signs that the destocking is over in Europe and to some extent China. Then, you know, we're seeing a little bit more cautious behavior here in North America, with some of the recent news flow. As we look to the whole year, you know, we are expecting a gradual recovery. Our expectation sequentially going into Q2 would be, you know, for double-digit sequential growth. But we're not sort of basing our year on, you know, sort of a rapid volume recovery, you know, given some of the sentiments here in North America. I'll ask Sameer to comment further, but I'd say those are the main stories for now.
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. I think Mark covered all the key points. Definitely I think as we're gonna think about, from the demand perspective, really if you look into the guide, as we're gonna think about the guide information, you know, TiO2 is gonna be a little weaker than what we thought at the beginning of the year. From a sequential perspective, we should expect a double-digit volume improvement as we get into the second quarter.
Jonathan Lock (SVP and Chief Development Officer)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global Advisors. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Hassan Ahmed (Senior Equity Analyst)
Morning, Mark and Sameer. You know, just wanted to sort of touch on TiO2 as well. I mean, look, as I take a look at sequential volumes, they were just up 1%. You know, as I take a look at the landscape, you know, one of your large competitors had sort of, you know, significantly higher volume gains sequentially. I'm just trying to understand in terms of market share globally, are you guys seeing any losses? You know, how should we think about that?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Yeah. Listen, when we look at, I think you're probably referring to Tronox. When I look at the year-over-year comparison, you know, we're down 30% or 35% from last year. They're down 30%. On a relative basis, there is some delta, I would admit that. I would attribute that mainly to, you know, where people are strong regionally. I would also tell you that we're very focused on adjusting our circuit, you know, against market demand and, you know, focused on being more focused on running the business for cash over the full-year. I think we are playing our cards well.
Again, as I said in my earlier comment, you know, we'll be looking for, you know, double-digit volume growth starting, you know, in the next quarter. We're very, very thoughtful about how we approach market. then the last point I would make is, you know, a lot of our business is on long-term contracts, which in many cases are tied to share of requirements. you know, I'm quite confident that this doesn't represent, you know, a significant share shift by any means. It's really more of a regional mix between us and some of our other M&C competitors.
Hassan Ahmed (Senior Equity Analyst)
Very helpful, Mark. Just a quick question on the guidance, the full-year guidance. You know, you guys obviously handily beat the Q1 estimates, and you're already sort of run rating annualized at $1.2 billion EBITDA, right? I'd like to think through the course of this year, you know, demand improves, you know, China reopening, all of those wonderful things. Obviously I'd like to think that TiO2, you know, results improve as well. I mean, don't you think the $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion reiteration seems a bit conservative?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Hassan, you know, I think we are a kind of a team that under promises and over delivers. I think as we sat here with a good 1Q in hand, our view was, given all of the global macro uncertainties, and particularly some of the, you know, banking uncertainties here in the U.S., it made sense at this point in the year to be careful. I think it's with that view that we have reaffirmed our full-year guide. Clearly, there are some aspects in the second half which could go either way. I think our perspective at this point is to reaffirm our full-year guide. I'll ask Sameer to make a few comments as well.
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, Hassan. you know, fair point, from your side, but as we're gonna think about the guide, you know, what we gave at the beginning of the year and where we are, you know, there's a lot of moving pieces, as Mark said, from a macroeconomic perspective, that we kinda reflected into this. Overall, if you look at from the business to business perspective, as I said earlier, TiO2 is probably a little weaker than what we thought at the beginning of the year. TSS, of course, given the performance that we saw in Q1, is gonna be in a better place than what we had when we gave that guide at the beginning of the year, and APM generally in line from where we were at the beginning of the year.
That's how you should think about, you know, the three businesses, where they were at the beginning of the year when we gave the guide and now when we are reiterating the guide.
Hassan Ahmed (Senior Equity Analyst)
Very helpful. Thank you so much, guys.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from John McNulty from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead, your line is open.
John McNulty (Managing Director and Chemicals Analyst)
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Mark, maybe the first one or so on TSS. You know, you kinda mentioned in passing that, you know, you kind of expected some really strong demand in the second half of the year going into that 2024 step down, in HFCs. Your volumes are pretty darn strong actually in the, in the first quarter. I guess, are you seeing any earlier pull than expected for Opteon and some of your HFOs ahead of that step down, or is this something else?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Yeah. John, I think what's helping to drive volume in Q1 was the strong automotive start that we saw. Auto volumes were strong in both, you know, Europe and the U.S. I think as we think of the full-year, you know, one question for us would be, you know, where do auto volumes go? Clearly, you know, the automotive companies are building cars, you know, with the supply chain more normalized. The question is, with higher interest rates, you know, does that continue throughout the year? I'd say, you know, our record Q1 performance in TSS is in part driven by strong auto, but it's also being driven by continued adoption of Opteon in the stationary side.
As we said earlier, strong HFCs, you know, based on an effective, you know, AIM and F-gas framework, working as well. As Sameer said, TSS is really, you know, out of the starting blocks, very strong. You know, we expect TSS to have a great year. TT, I think, is starting a little weaker than expected, but, you know, with the focus on cost reduction in that business and a gradual volume recovery, you know, our expectation would be that, you know, we could get this business back to, you know, 20% EBITDA margins as we exit the year. The team's really working on both the growth side of the business in TSS and APM, as well as the cost side of the business in TT.
John McNulty (Managing Director and Chemicals Analyst)
Got it. Okay. Maybe just as the follow-up on the TSS business. The margin snapped back really nicely from the 4Q kind of dip that we saw. I guess when I think about this business, normally 1Q isn't the strongest kind of margin quarter just because, you know, you've got a little bit more auto, a little bit less kind of stationary. Is that the right way to think about it? Should we be expecting the margins to push higher here, just given the strength in autos, which is kind of a constant price degradation story, and the lack of like big refrigerant demand in the first quarter? Should we be seeing margin improvement as we kind of go through the year here? Is that the right way to think about it?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Yeah. Listen, I think, you know, as it relates to the comparison to Q4, I think, you know, we had taken you and our investors through the fact that there were a number of factors that made Q4 more of an aberration than pointing for anything to come. You know, as I look at the full-year, in TSS, I would expect it to be somewhat comparable to our last year. Clearly, you know, as you saw in the quarter, you know, our margins are down slightly year-over-year based on higher input costs. No, I think, you know, this is a business that has, you know, top line growth, you know, in low double digits with EBITDA margins, you know, very attractive EBITDA margins, which we expect all year. Sameer?
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. Thanks, Mark. John, I think as Mark said, you should, from a full-year perspective, look at the margin almost on comparable basis to last year. I just want to point out that in Q4, you know, last year we had some one-offs. Overall, if you're gonna think about the Q4, we always have the seasonality impact which impacts the margins. As you know, in that part of the time, we have more sales in the Southern Hemisphere and some of the automotive slowdowns happen as well, which impact the Q4 margins. Overall, if you look at the first three quarters of the year, you should expect the margins comparable on comparable basis.
John McNulty (Managing Director and Chemicals Analyst)
Got it. Thanks very much for the color.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Josh from UBS. Please go ahead, your line is open.
James Cannon (Associate Director of Chemicals Equity Research)
Hey, guys. This is James Cannon on for Josh. I just wanted to drill in a little more on the TSS segment. Just also on the volume side, it seems like you came in even ahead of where auto builds were in the year. I'm wondering, like, is that a channel fill impact or anything else that made 1Q particularly strong? How we should think about kind of the sequentials as we move through the year there.
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. I'd say auto is a component of the growth. Clearly, as I said earlier, James, you know, there is continued adoption on the stationary side. Recall that we had told in a previous call that many of the stationary OEMs have adopted our Opteon refrigerants, our Opteon blends, for their equipment. You know, we're seeing that impact of adoption on the stationary side as well, as well as some of our other specialty HFO chemistry on the foam side. The growth is pretty broad-based. Clearly in terms of versus expectations, the strong auto build certainly was quite helpful in Q1.
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
James, the only other color I would add to Sameer is, as you kind of think about Opteon solutions, we are the Tier 1 supplier. We have pretty much direct line of sight into the builds, and there's a limited inventory. We see that demand pick up or slow down pretty quickly in our business.
James Cannon (Associate Director of Chemicals Equity Research)
Okay. Yeah, just as a follow-up to that, if I think about OEMs kind of pulling forward adoption into the first quarter, does that offset maybe what I would think of as a normal seasonal uplift in the second quarter?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Clearly, you know, in our full-year guide, you know, we're being very thoughtful here, not to project out Q1, you know, overage as a full-year concept. You know, we tend to, you know, stick closer to the IHS forecast, you know, in terms of our auto outlook. Clearly, you know, the rate of auto builds beyond Q1 could either be a positive or a negative factor, you know, relative to what we would expect in normal seasonality.
James Cannon (Associate Director of Chemicals Equity Research)
Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess I have a similar question to some of those others. First off, if you just think about Q1, you know, north of $400 million, obviously you can't annualize that, but Q2 and Q3 seasonally should be higher. What are some of the differences this year that you're seeing that would kind of affect the normal seasonality? Could you just remind us what was the total of, say, the one-time items in Q4 that led to that lower number? Thanks.
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think we've gone through the Q4 deltas, and obviously if you wanna talk to the IR team, they'd be happy to, you know, give you more color. I think we went through it in some detail on the last call. Clearly I think the main delta that we're seeing as we start the year is, you know, stronger auto builds in Q1. We'll see if those persist in Q2. Europe is clearly better. You know, Europe is feeling stronger as we start the year. In the U.S., I think the outlook is more cautious, if I could use that word. You know, we will see how that translates into a normal cooling season, you know, with the hotter weather in the summer.
I think as we think of the year, we'll look at, you know, how the summer season plays out in terms of temperature that could affect our seasonality along with auto builds. In the second half of the year, what we would be looking for are people buying ahead of the step down on HFCs to use up their quotas. That could be, you know, a positive versus normal seasonality. I just wanna reaffirm what Sameer said earlier, that, you know, this is a very seasonal business. Q4 tends to be our weakest quarter. As we said, Q4 last year had a number of items, including some LIFO items that really impacted the quarter, and which we have taken you guys through before.
Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks. Just on APM, you also seem to be, I guess, a little bit different from what we're seeing on the electronic side. Maybe you just kinda walk through some of the end markets in APM and, you know, highlight some of the areas of strength that you're seeing and maybe weakness if there are any. Thanks.
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
APM is kind of a mix. Well, APM has two distinct portfolios, Performance Solutions and Advanced Materials. Advanced Materials tends to be, quote-unquote, "More economically sensitive." You know, these are broad industrial applications, you know, where we saw some volume fade. They're also markets, candidly, we are de-emphasizing as we free up inputs, you know, to drive the growth on Performance Solutions. In terms of areas of strength, you know, our Teflon PFA, you know, is integral to any new semicon fab. You know, while there's some softness in electronics, broadly speaking, there's still a lot of focus on building new fabs, you know, for higher quality, lower node size chips where, you know, our high purity PFA is key.
Actually the limiting factor for us on both things like PFA and Nafion membranes for hydrogen, where again, we're sold out, is how quickly we can relieve capacity and in some cases get permits to expand capacity at some of our plants. You know, there's kind of a push and a pull within the APM segment this year, where, you know, the Advanced Materials is more subject to sort of global macro, which you saw in our results in Q1. Performance Solutions is really tied mainly to our ability to unlock capacity, which the team is really focused on.
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. Arun,
Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks.
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
A couple of other points I would add on the APM side is, as we said at the beginning of the year, for APM, this is a year of transition, right? You saw that in Performance Solution is up 20%, Advanced Materials is down 8%, and Advanced Materials are more economically sensitive, business. That's gonna reflect it as you're gonna think about. Overall seasonality into the year, have that overlay of the APM transition as well, as you're gonna think about the overall guide for the full-year.
Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from John Roberts from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead, your line is open.
John Roberts (Managing Director of U.S. Equity Research)
Thank you. On your earlier comment about the regional mix difference with Tronox and TiO2, does that imply the U.S. went through a bigger supply chain correction? Would that be because the U.S. does tinting at the stores while ex-U.S. is factory tinted, so maybe there's just structurally more channel inventory of paint that contains pigment in the U.S. versus international?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Yeah, John, you know, that's, I don't know if that's to be true. What we do feel is that, you know, a number of U.S. customers are just being a little bit more cautious than they otherwise would be at this time in the year. But yes, we're, you know, we're more represented in terms of U.S., the U.S. market, for example, than the European market, which, you know, as I said earlier, went through a significant destocking in Q4 and which has rebounded nicely. For example, you know, Europe has been strong for us in TSS, given the strength of that economy, but we're less represented in Europe on TiO2, versus some of our other M&C competitors. I think it actually has to do more with how strong Europe has come back.
To some degree, a little bit of caution, you know, in the U.S. There may also be a little bit of, you know, market exposure, you know, coatings versus plastics, for example.
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, John, this is Sameer. Just, you know, I would just ask you to just zoom out a little bit here, right? I think it's a lot simpler in our judgment because if you think about it's a timing issue, right? Europe went into recession much earlier and started coming back, as we said even in Q4 last year. Europe has been coming out, whereas U.S. now, where we are more exposed, is becoming more cautious as we kind of think about the impact of the financing markets on the construction site. I would think of it more from a broader timing perspective rather than individual product or channel perspective.
John Roberts (Managing Director of U.S. Equity Research)
Right. Then secondly, are you seeing any TiO2 customers exit the price stabilization contracts and go back to less formulaic pricing?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
No. I'd say our contracts remain in place and as I've said many times, we have had no major customer exit any of our major contracts.
John Roberts (Managing Director of U.S. Equity Research)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Will Tang (Equity Research Associate of Chemicals and Agriculture)
Hey, guys. This is Will Tang on for Vincent. Thanks for taking my question. I guess kind of going back to an earlier question, you guys mentioned that the destocking that you saw that took place in EMEA and China was now largely over. Does that mean that if we get into a situation where, you know, the macro kind of weakens from here, you might still expect, you know, TiO2 volumes, your TiO2 volumes at least to increase sequentially just to kind of get back to an equal, you know, sell in and sell out rate?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
I'm not sure I fully understand the question, you know, I think our expectation is we'll continue to see a gradual recovery in TiO2 volumes throughout the year, and sequentially going from Q1 to Q2, you know, double-digit volume growth.
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. Also, as you're gonna think about our TSS customers, right? You know, where the incentive to build the inventory, as we kind of talked about in the past, is lower as these are percent volume commitments. So I think at the volume that you're gonna see pull through from them is gonna be more representative of their demand.
Will Tang (Equity Research Associate of Chemicals and Agriculture)
Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Then going to TSS, I guess, as we look at auto builds and maybe, you know, expectations for EV production to be lower this year than what we had, you know, thought maybe a few months ago, are there any differences with respect to the TSS content between, you know, EVs and ICE, and would that be an incremental headwind just on the mix side?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Actually, again, I think our auto build forecast for the year is tied to IHS. Clearly, you know, we've seen really good, strong auto builds out of the starting blocks. Some sense that, you know, even as we go into April, auto builds remain relatively strong. I think actually, you know, sitting here today, you know, that could be a nice tailwind. Candidly on as you look at the EV to ICE comparison, EV charge size is actually larger than a internal combustion engine. You know, the increased penetration of EVs is actually a positive for our business. That's probably something we'll share in more detail, you know, as we look at overall EV mix as it grows over time.
You know, car for car, the charge size in an EV is somewhat larger than an internal combustion engine, where you're using a heat pump essentially to heat the cabin in the winter.
Will Tang (Equity Research Associate of Chemicals and Agriculture)
Got it. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Salvador Tiano (Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Chemicals and Agriculture)
Yes, thank you. This is Salvador Tiano in for Matt. Firstly, I want to ask a little bit about your margins in TiO2, where, I think they came up 11% and they're still quite lower than some of your peers. I'm just trying to understand at this point, is it more a difference of vertical integration or are there any other structural changes that are leading to lower margins for Chemours? You mentioned before also that you are focused on costs in the titanium technology segment. Can you provide a little bit more color on what some of the initiatives you're taking here?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
You know, clearly we're not happy with our current margins and as I said earlier in the call, you know, have a keen focus on the cost side of that business as we go through the year, you know, with the expectation that we'll exit the year, you know, at 20% EBITDA margins based on both a gradual volume recovery and the work we're doing on the cost side. Denise Dignam, who's come into the role of TiO2 President, our TT President is, you know, has a really good track record of being focused on the cost side of the business, which she did in APM. You know, I think Denise and the team are really focused on how we drive that business forward.
The other thing I would tell you is, you know, we're clearly adjusting our capacity, you know, to be more in line with the volume in the market, you know, with the focus on, you know, running the business on a full-year for cash flow. I tell you know, I don't know if margins are always comparable, you know, when you have a mix of, say, mining and pigment, but also, you know, when you look at how you're running the circuit, you know, with a focus on cash generation. Listen, there are a number of differences. I would say let's focus on our margins. We're not happy at the 11% level. The team under Denise's leadership is focused on improving the margin as we move through the year with a target to exit the year at a 20% EBITDA margin.
Salvador Tiano (Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Chemicals and Agriculture)
Perfect. As a follow-up, I want to ask a little bit about your agreement with TC Energy on a couple of green hydrogen plants. If you can provide a little bit more detail regarding the investment size, the size, I guess, of electrolyzers, the hydrogen capacity? Just trying to understand, will all of this hydrogen be used by Chemours to kind of decarbonize your own products? Or do you see yourself participating in selling green hydrogen to others as well?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
You know, first of all, we're very excited about our role in renewable hydrogen. We think that has a huge role in decarbonizing economies around the world, and we wanna lead by example. We're working with TC Energy as another member of the ARCH2 Hub application. This is a demonstration hydrogen project in West Virginia, where TC Energy is a partner. You know, what we've agreed with TC Energy is, you know, we'll be a partner both in the supply of Nafion membranes for the electrolyzers to be used at those facilities. We'll also be using at least some portion of the hydrogen generated at these facilities in West Virginia, at our plants in West Virginia, with a commitment to decarbonize our plants.
You will have noticed in the quarter, we received two Department of Energy awards on the work that we're doing to make our plants more sustainable. You know, we are on a path to achieve a 60% greenhouse gas reduction, absolute greenhouse reduction, by 60% by 2030 through a number of initiatives, including this one, you know, at all of our plants. We're very excited about this project and the MOU we've just signed with TC Energy, who is a partner in the ARCH2 Hub submission to the DOE.
Salvador Tiano (Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Chemicals and Agriculture)
Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Our last question comes from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Laurence Alexander (Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning. you mentioned the potential pull forward in refrigerants ahead of the step down. How much of a impact do you think that would have on your volumes after the regulation change?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
You know, we'll have to wait and see, Laurence, to see, you know, what kind of summer we have. I think my sense is, and we've indicated this on prior calls, is that the step down is likely to generate some level of buying activity as people sort of look, how much of my quota have I used up in the year? Again, based on, you know, how much demand there is this summer, how much do I have remaining? you know, and using that up towards the end of the year. Clearly, in a, in a market that's restricted on volume based on a quota, you know, that could drive, you know, price in the second half.
It may also have some impact on seasonal demand patterns, throughout the year, in terms of HFC demand as people look at, you know, their use of quota versus, actual demand in the marketplace. We'll have to wait and see. Obviously, net-net, it's a favorable impact on the business ahead of the step-down next year.
Laurence Alexander (Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Then can you give a sense for how much, you know, between where Opteon is now, in both the mobility and stationary applications and what you see as like full market penetration where it shifts to growing in line with GDP, how much of a step-up in EBITDA do you expect, to, you know, before you get to, like, just, trend growth?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Yeah. Laurence, I wouldn't step away from our sort of long-term guide that we gave in our Investor Day. This is a, you know, high single digit top line CAGR with EBITDA greater than 30%. Clearly, as we said, in this call, you know, we're expecting overall margins to be, you know, close to where they were last year on a full-year basis. Our long-term guide would be, you know, with that in mind, that this is a business with robust top line growth and a team very focused on making this both a high margin business and a high cash conversion business as we move forward in time.
Laurence Alexander (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Then just lastly, there's a large chunk of fluoropolymer and related chemistries, you know, market share available after 2025. Can you give a sense for how much of that Venator should be able to pick up? Do you need to do any investments in 2024 on either in terms of new formulations, qualifications, you know, customer service costs or CapEx to pick up that share?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Yeah. You know, Laurence, it's a great question. We obviously believe that fluoropolymers are essential for modern living, but are also key to the new economy, whether we're talking about high speed data, AI, you know, electric vehicles, hydrogen. You know, our big investments in APM today are focused on hydrogen, where we are wanting to do a significant expansion of our Nafion membrane capacity and capabilities. We're also expanding our Teflon PFA line in our Washington Works plant in West Virginia, which by the way, we're the only PFA supplier in the U.S. If there's a U.S. onshoring of chips, you know, we're key to that whole activity. Listen, the investments that we've announced today are both in Teflon PFA as well as the hydrogen facility, which we would like to site in Villers-Saint-Paul in France.
You know, we continue to be focused on those near-term opportunities. The team's also very focused on debottlenecking a number of our plants. Again, you know, whether it's demand for materials on the EV side, you know, we're really focused on the growth in our Performance Solutions business, which as you saw in the quarter, was up 20% and really is subject to more of our ability to bring capacity online more quickly. Interestingly, Performance Solutions was 31% of the portfolio last year. In this recent quarter, it's 39%. That higher CAGR is making, you know, the APM segment a lot more specialized as we move forward in time.
Candidly, when I look at our TSS and APM business, you know, I really would agree with the sentiment that our multiple doesn't reflect the power of the earnings of those businesses over time. We're very excited about where we go from here, and the team's very focused on delivering.
Laurence Alexander (Equity Research Analyst)
I guess if I may just would you be looking to expand into novel formulations, chemistries, end markets? Or is it more just, you know, because you have such significant growth opportunities in the market that you're already in, is it more just a matter of trying to keep up with that demand curve?
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Yeah. You know, the team's really focused on where we can add more value in sort of adjacent applications or provide more value in some of our downstream applications. Obviously, we're very thoughtful about, you know, potential channel conflicts. You know, we think there's real value in understanding how the chemistry works from, you know, all the way back from the monomer right through to the end application. And some of these are, for example, manifesting themselves, you know, in our, in a, in joint ventures. We did a joint venture with FUMATECH in Germany on fuel cell membranes, where, you know, we have all the supply chain, we have all the chemistry from the monomer forward, but they have a lot of expertise in membrane capacity. We're working with them on that.
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. Laurence, this is Sameer. The only one thing I would add is as you kind of think about the growth in that business is, you know, we've had a big change in strategy under Denise, when she had laid out the APM business. Effectively, it's gonna be market-led innovation. Like, we have some very unique properties that our materials apply. As you're gonna think about the market need, it's gonna be market-led innovation that's gonna drive the growth of business.
Laurence Alexander (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
We have a follow-up question from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Salvador Tiano (Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Chemicals and Agriculture)
Thank you very much. A couple of last questions since we have some time. The first one was in the TiO2 segment. You had previously mentioned that you see EBITDA this year kind of as a worst case scenario, $500 million. Just given the current outlook Q1 performance, I'm wondering, is this still the case that you're targeting at the mean $500 million for 2023?
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, this is Sameer. I'll take this one. As you know, yes, we stand by the number that we had in the past that, hey, you know, given all the changes in the market dynamics that we had in the business, you know, the trough should be $500-ish is how we're gonna talk about.
Salvador Tiano (Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Chemicals and Agriculture)
Okay, perfect. The second one is, in your APM outlook, you're talking about higher production and raw material costs. Can you provide a little bit more color on the inflation you're seeing there, both in terms of what level of inflation, also, what categories, what raw materials are still going up?
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, this is Sameer. I'll start and Mark can add color. You know, overall, as you're gonna think about the inflation side, it really depends business to business, right? Because they all consume very different raw materials, so it's I won't generalize over the top. The comment I would like to make is, as we laid out in the script as well is, as we progress through the year, we expect the inflation headwinds to moderate, and that should really help drive the margin as well. That's reflected in how we're gonna think about the TT margin recovery as we go through the year. Overall, the headwinds are moderating quite a bit as the supply chains have eased.
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Yeah. No, clearly, I'd say, you know, energy and, you know, to some degree, ore we're seeing, you know, prices have already rolled over significantly. As we look to the rest of the year, you know, our procurement team is really taking advantage of a low inflation environment, to drive cost improvement across the portfolio.
Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. As you're gonna look at the last comment I would make is look at the earnings slides as well, right? Again, in this quarter, the pricing has stayed ahead of the cost line item as well. We are staying super focused on the commercial side as well to make sure we stay ahead of any inflations.
Salvador Tiano (Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Chemicals and Agriculture)
All right. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
We have no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Mark Newman for closing remarks.
Mark Newman (President and CEO)
Thank you all for your interest in Chemours today. The team's remaining very focused on, you know, delivering another great year, and it's great to reaffirm our guide for the full-year, and we look forward to seeing you on the road and to taking your, you know, follow-up questions throughout the day today. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.