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Carlyle Credit Income Fund (CCIF)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 GAAP net investment income per share was $0.23, adjusted NII was $0.26, and core NII was $0.27; total investment income was $8.565M and NAV per share was $6.98 .
  • The fund maintained its monthly dividend at $0.105 through August (18.75% annualized on the 5/16/25 price); declared dates and pay dates were set for June–August .
  • Results were pressured by loan repricings (-12bps in weighted average spread) and 18% of the portfolio diverting payments to fund accretive resets/refis; recurring cash flows fell to $0.49 per share but rebounded to ~$0.62 in Q3 2025 commentary .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, CCIF missed on EPS ($0.23 vs $0.2625) and revenue ($8.565M vs $9.041M); 4 estimates were tracked for each metric (Values retrieved from S&P Global)*.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Completed 13 accretive refinancings/resets, extending the weighted average remaining CLO reinvestment period from 2.5 to 3.1 years; portfolio WA GAAP yield was 16.48% and cash yield on quarterly payments was 22.67% .
  • Capital markets execution: $18.6M net from 7.50% convertible preferreds and $12.2M net from ATM common issuance at a premium to NAV, adding ~$0.02 NAV accretion per share in the quarter .
  • Management emphasized resilience: “Our second quarter results reflect the resilient nature of the loan and CLO market… we continue to focus on optimizing our CLO positions including completing 13 accretive refinancings and resets” — Nishil Mehta .

What Went Wrong

  • Loan repricing and macro volatility: weighted average spread declined an additional 12bps; CLO primary spreads widened in April on tariff concerns before starting to retrace; resets/refis slowed until liabilities tighten further .
  • 18% of the portfolio did not make payments as quarterly cash flows were redirected to fund resets/refis and some primary issuances had not yet made initial distributions, reducing CNII and recurring cash flows in Q2 .
  • NAV marked lower intra-quarter as third-party valuation agent raised discount rates in DCFs amid market volatility; management noted daily NAVs rebounded as markets rallied post-quarter end .

Financial Results

Income Statement Metrics (per share) and Investment Income

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Investment Income ($USD Millions)$7.301 $7.383 $7.901 $8.269 $8.565
Net Investment Income per Share$0.33 $0.32 $0.30 $0.26 $0.23
Adjusted NII per Share$0.34 $0.31 $0.27 $0.32 $0.26
Core NII per Share$0.37$0.46$0.45$0.44 $0.27
Recurring Cash Flows per Share$0.64 $0.81 $0.70 $0.70 $0.49
Net Income per Share$(0.05) $0.09$(0.17)
NAV per Share (quarter-end)$7.88 $7.68 $7.64 $7.44 $6.98

Consensus vs Actual (Q2 2025)

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
EPS (Primary)$0.23$0.2625—0.0325 (—12.4%): bold miss*
Revenue ($USD)$8,565,000$9,041,260—$476,260 (—5.3%): bold miss*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*

KPIs and Portfolio Metrics

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Change QoQ
Total Investments at Fair Value ($USD ‘000s)$177,907 $197,902 +$19,995
Number of CLO Holdings52 61 +9
Total Portfolio WA GAAP Yield17.22% 16.48% —74bps
Cash Yield on Quarterly Payments25.15% 22.67% —248bps
WA Remaining CLO Reinvestment Period2.5 years 3.1 years +0.6 yrs
WA Junior OC Cushion4.18% 4.46% +28bps
S&P CCC Rated Obligors5.35% 5.17% —18bps
Obligors Priced <803.40% 3.30% —10bps
WA Stated Loan Spread3.38% 3.26% —12bps
Net Assets ($USD ‘000s)$125,020 $131,969 +$6,949
Preferred Equity (Principal) ($USD ‘000s)$63,517 $80,517 +$16,999
Leverage (Preferred to Total Assets)0.33x 0.38x +0.05x

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Monthly Dividend (Common)Jun–Aug 2025$0.105 declared through May 2025 $0.105 declared for Jun, Jul, Aug 2025; 18.75% annualized on 5/16/25 price Maintained
Monthly Dividend (Series A Preferred)Jun–Aug 2025$0.1823 declared for Mar–May 2025 $0.1823 declared for Jun, Jul, Aug 2025 Maintained
Recurring Cash Flows (Outlook)Q3 2025~$0.49 per share implied for Q2 2025 Approximately $0.62 per share (management commentary) Raised (operational outlook)

Dividend record/payable dates and amounts detailed in the release .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Tariffs/Macro VolatilityStable backdrop; Fed cuts; divergence between in-court defaults vs distressed exchanges; repricings reduced spreads ~20–25bps CLO primary spreads widened in April on tariff announcements, now retracing; expect slowdown in resets/refis until liabilities tighten further Deteriorated in April, stabilizing thereafter
Loan Repricing ImpactSpread compression —26–33bps YTD; reduced GAAP yields; CNII supported by high cash yields Additional 12bps spread decline; repricings stalled given volatility; expected lower repricing drag near term Headwind easing near term
Reset/Refi Activity7 YTD resets through Sept; accelerating into late 2024 and early 2025 13 resets/refis in Q2; added 0.6 years to WA reinvestment period Strong execution; portfolio optimization
Credit Quality/DefaultsLTM default incl. distressed exchanges ~4.5% market; CCIF ~1.5% CCIF LTM default incl. exchanges at ~1.3%; CCC 5.2% and obligors <80 at 3.3% Stable, better than market
Capital Markets$22.2M raised (Q4 2024) incl. 7.125% pref; ATM accretive $18.6M 7.50% conv. preferred; $12.2M ATM; NAV accretion ~$0.02 per share Continued accretive scaling
Tax/Regulatory (PFIC timing)FY24 distributions largely ROC due to PFIC timing mismatch; core NII exceeded distributions No new tax designation changes reported; ongoing sale process for legacy real estate loan Monitoring; structural issue persisted

Management Commentary

  • “Our second quarter results reflect the resilient nature of the loan and CLO market… we continue to focus on optimizing our CLO positions including completing 13 accretive refinancings and resets” — Nishil Mehta (PEO/President) .
  • “CLO primary spreads widened further in April, following harsher than anticipated tariff announcements… we anticipate a slowdown in both CLO resets and refinancings until spreads tighten further” — Lauren Basmadjian (Chair, Global Head of Liquid Credit) .
  • “Adjusted net investment income… was $4.6 million or $0.26 per share… core net investment income… was $0.27 per share. The decline… was attributable to approximately 18% of the portfolio not making payments [to fund resets/refis and primary issuances not yet making initial distributions]” — Nelson Joseph (CFO) .
  • “Our net asset value… is based on a bid-side mark we receive from a third party on 100% of the CLO portfolio… we have seen a rebound in the NAV as the market has rebounded as well” — Nishil Mehta .

Q&A Highlights

  • Repricing headwind and payment diversion: Management quantified a 12bps spread decline from repricings and clarified 18% of positions diverted payments to fund resets/refis (mainly January), with repricing activity halted amid volatility, reducing expected drag in Q3 .
  • Out-of-court restructurings: Elevated vs history; expected to remain dominant over in-court processes; vintage (2021 LBOs) and higher-rate environment are key drivers; CCIF’s platform strength in workouts noted as advantage .
  • Primary vs secondary deployment: Relative value similar given retracement; targeting low-to-mid teens returns with sufficient reinvestment periods; active in both markets .
  • NAV dynamics: April NAV decline was market-driven (loan price drop and higher valuation yields); daily NAVs have since rebounded alongside markets; liquidation of an underperforming 2021 CLO was idiosyncratic .
  • Healthcare exposure: Monitoring potential budget-related impacts (NIH/FDA/DOGE programs); risks seen as idiosyncratic; portfolio interest coverage strong with <3% of borrowers <1x .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 EPS: $0.23 actual vs $0.2625 consensus (4 estimates) — miss; Revenue: $8.565M actual vs $9.041M consensus (4 estimates) — miss (Values retrieved from S&P Global)*.
  • Estimate revisions may need to reflect lower recurring cash flows tied to payment diversion for resets/refis in Q2 and repricing drag, offset by Q3 rebound (~$0.62 per share recurring cash flows) and extended reinvestment periods .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Dividend stability looks supported by CNII and cash-on-cash yields despite Q2 headwinds; declared $0.105 monthly through August with high implied yield on market price .
  • Near-term earnings optics may improve as repricing activity stalls amid volatility and as payment diversion normalizes post-resets/refis; management flagged reduced repricing drag and Q3 recurring cash flow rebound .
  • Portfolio optimization continues to extend reinvestment runway, enhancing ability to build par and capture wider asset spreads during volatility; WA reinvestment rose to 3.1 years, OC cushions remained healthy .
  • Daily NAVs are sensitive to market marks and valuation assumptions; recent rebound suggests technicals rather than fundamental deterioration drove April NAV dip .
  • Capital formation remains accretive (ATM at premium, convertible preferreds at 7.50%); scaling could improve liquidity and trading profile while modestly increasing leverage (0.38x) .
  • Credit metrics remain better than market (LTM default incl. exchanges ~1.3% vs market ~4%); CCC and sub-80 exposures modest and trending down .
  • Tactical positioning: Favor defensively structured CLOs with ample reinvestment period and stronger managers; monitor tariff/macro headlines for liability spread moves that could re-open reset/refi windows .

Notes on non-GAAP: Adjusted NII excludes non-cash amortization of deferred issuance costs/OID on preferreds; CNII adjusts GAAP NII for CLO equity effective yield differences and non-cash amortization to better reflect recurring cash generation .

Values retrieved from S&P Global*