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    Cameco Corp (CCJ)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 6, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$51.21Last close (Nov 6, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$51.80Open (Nov 7, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.59(+1.15%)
    • Management anticipates higher uranium prices due to supply constraints and increasing demand, suggesting potential for higher future revenues.
    • Cameco is optimizing its Tier 1 assets, potentially increasing production without significant capital expenditure, enhancing profitability while maintaining market balance.
    • With tightening market conditions, Cameco has more leverage in contract negotiations, enabling better pricing terms and enhancing future earnings.
    • Production challenges at the Inkai mine and delivery delays: Reduced production outlook at JV Inkai from 8.3 million pounds to 7.7 million pounds due to sulfuric acid shortages in Kazakhstan and transportation issues from avoiding Russian routes. These issues could impact Cameco's supply and lead to uncertainty in meeting production targets.
    • Increased costs and inflationary pressures in the Fuel Services segment: Despite improved sales, costs remained flat due to lower than forecast production in the UF6 segment and inflationary pressures, potentially squeezing margins and impacting profitability.
    • Potential softening of uranium spot prices and buyer expectations of lower future prices: Cameco executives acknowledged a stalled upward trend in pricing due to spot price softening from material being dumped into a thinly traded market, leading fuel buyers to expect lower future prices, which could pressure Cameco's pricing power in contract negotiations.
    1. Uranium Market Outlook
      Q: Are utilities waiting for lower uranium prices, and is that a mistake?
      A: Utilities seem to be waiting for lower prices, but this may be a costly error. The fundamentals are strong: the long-term uranium price is up to $81.50 per pound. There's a structural supply-demand gap that requires higher prices to incentivize new production. Market-related contracts are being priced with floors in the low $70s and ceilings at $130, indicating expectations of prices reaching $100 per pound.

    2. McArthur River/Key Lake Production Potential
      Q: Can McArthur River and Key Lake produce above 20 million pounds without significant CapEx?
      A: Yes, we're evaluating how to derisk and debottleneck these facilities to reach 25% capacity without major capital investments. We've invested in automation and robotics during downtime, allowing us to increase production efficiently.

    3. Long-Term Contracting Prices
      Q: How are floor and ceiling prices in long-term uranium contracts evolving?
      A: Current floors are at $70 escalated, and ceilings at $130 escalated. Despite spot market softness, we're maintaining these levels because short-term spot prices don't reflect appropriate future uranium values. We're patient and disciplined, focusing on long-term fundamentals.

    4. Inkai Production Issues
      Q: Are the issues at Inkai transitory, and can lost production be recovered?
      A: Yes, the issues are transitory. Acid supply constraints, due to not sourcing from Russia, affected timing. We expect to sort out complex ownership agreements and recoup lost volumes; Inkai represents about 10% of our production.

    5. Cost Inflation Impact
      Q: Is cost inflation affecting your operations and the uranium cost curve?
      A: Yes, costs are rising across the resource sector, including reagents, energy, and labor. However, our investments in automation at McArthur-Key have reduced costs below 2017 levels, offsetting inflation. The need for Western uranium sources, typically more expensive, is also pushing the cost curve higher.

    6. Westinghouse EBITDA Growth Outlook
      Q: Is the 6%-10% long-term EBITDA growth rate for Westinghouse still valid?
      A: Yes, we maintain the 6%-10% growth guidance over the next five years. This is conservative, and we may adjust it upward when new AP1000 reactor projects reach final investment decisions.

    7. Springfields Conversion Facility Restart
      Q: What are the plans for restarting the Springfields conversion facility?
      A: Restarting Springfields requires a solid industrial plan and stronger contracting in conversion. The facility is strategically important, and while current demand hasn't reached pricing needed for a restart, it's coming. We're strategically patient, aligning production with market needs.

    8. Strong Q4 Expectations
      Q: Why is Q4 expected to be strong for Westinghouse and uranium sales?
      A: Westinghouse experiences seasonality, with higher activity during fall outages leading to more work and higher margins in Q4. For uranium, we have committed sales of 11-13 million pounds scheduled for delivery in Q4, making it a strong quarter.

    9. New Nuclear Builds in the U.S.
      Q: How do recent U.S. government actions affect new nuclear builds and AP1000 prospects?
      A: The pushback on certain deals signals that large energy consumers must co-invest in new capacity. This is positive for new nuclear builds, and the AP1000 is well-positioned to meet this demand, as highlighted in the DOE's lift-off report.

    10. Flexibility in Contract Deliveries
      Q: Is there room for additional uranium deliveries beyond the planned 11-13 million pounds in Q4?
      A: No, delivery commitments are set with binding notices six months in advance. There's limited opportunity for upward adjustments at this stage.

    11. Seasonality and Uranium Prices
      Q: Is current weakness in uranium prices due to seasonality?
      A: Partly. The nuclear fuel cycle calendar starts in September, and month-end effects can cause price softness due to small-volume trades. Despite short-term fluctuations, the fundamental need for more supply suggests higher prices are necessary.

    12. Contract Terms Evolution
      Q: Are contract terms changing with market conditions?
      A: Yes, as the market tightens, leverage shifts to sellers. This results in higher floors and ceilings, better escalators, reduced flex volumes, and longer notice periods for deliveries.

    13. Delay in Inkai Shipments
      Q: How do delayed shipments from Inkai affect your inventory?
      A: We're using the Trans-Caspian route to avoid Russian channels, leading to timing issues. Although less predictable, deliveries eventually arrive, and we utilize other inventories to meet commitments.

    14. Fuel Services Segment Costs
      Q: What affects costs in the Fuel Services segment?
      A: Costs vary due to the mix of products sold, each with different cost structures. This quarter, higher costs in UF6 were due to lower production and inflationary pressures.

    15. Utilities' Buying Behavior Shift
      Q: Are utilities shifting buying behavior upstream due to Russian material concerns?
      A: Yes, utilities are moving from focusing on conversion and enrichment to uranium procurement. Prices in enrichment and conversion are high, and we expect increased uranium demand as utilities seek to secure their supply chains.