Crown - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 delivered a clean beat: adjusted EPS of $2.24 vs S&P Global consensus $1.99*, revenue of $3.20B vs $3.14B*, and EBITDA of $564M vs $538M*, driven by 12% volume growth in European Beverage and strong tinplate performance.
• Guidance raised: FY25 adjusted EPS to $7.70–$7.80 (from $7.10–$7.50), FY25 adjusted free cash flow to ~$1.0B (from ~$900M), and Q4 adjusted EPS guided to $1.65–$1.75; tax rate ~25% and CapEx trimmed to ~$400M for 2025.
• Balance sheet inflection: long‑term adjusted net leverage target achieved at 2.5x; YTD cash returns >$400M via repurchases/dividends, providing scope for continued capital return as leverage holds near 2.5x.
• Americas Beverage faced softness (Brazil/Mexico) and aluminum delivery premium pressure (denominator effect on margins), partially offset by stable Asia margins (>17%) and flat Transit Packaging income; management expects Brazil to rebound in Q4.
• Stock reaction catalysts: estimate beats and raised FY guidance, record European Beverage performance, deleveraging to target, and capital return flexibility; watch aluminum premium/inflation and LatAm demand into Q4.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• European Beverage posted a record quarter: 12% volume growth, segment income +27% YoY; management: “European beverage posted a record quarter… income 27% above the prior year on the back of 12% volume growth”.
• Strong operating execution and portfolio balance: segment income +4% YoY to $490M, tinplate improvements, robust cash flow; “the strength of our balanced portfolio drove higher segment income and cash flow”.
• Leverage and capital returns: long‑term adjusted net leverage target of 2.5x achieved and >$400M returned YTD via buybacks/dividends.

What Went Wrong

• Americas Beverage softness: volumes down 5% (Brazil −15%, Mexico −15%), North America −3% (Crown underperformed market ~+2% due to customer pruning); minority interest fell with lower Brazil JV profits.
• Aluminum delivery premium raised the denominator and compressed percentage margins in Americas Beverage (~1.25% impact in Q3); management passes aluminum costs through, so absolute margins remain, but % margins decline.
• Asia and Transit Packaging volume headwinds: Asia Pacific shipments lower; Transit Packaging equipment/tool sales pressured by tariffs, partly offset by cost reductions and commodity strap resilience.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Thank you for standing by the conference. We'll begin momentarily. Until such time, you will hear music. Thank you, and please continue to stand by. Good morning and welcome to Crown Holdings' third quarter 2025 conference call. Your lines have been placed on a listen-only mode until the question and answer session. Please be advised that this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, sir, and you may begin.

Speaker 0

Thank you, El, and good morning. With me on today's call is Tim Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer. If you don't already have the earnings release, it is available on our website at crowncork.com. On this call, as in the earnings release, we will be making a number of forward-looking statements. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to vary is contained in the press release and in our SEC filings, including our Form 10-K from 2024 and subsequent filings. Earnings for the quarter were $1.85 per share compared to a loss of $1.47 per share in the prior year quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.24 compared to $1.99 in the prior year quarter.

Net sales in the quarter were up 4.2% compared to the prior year, reflecting a 12% increase in shipments across European beverage, the pass-through of higher raw material costs, and a favorable foreign currency translation, partially offset by lower volumes across Latin America. Segment income was $490 million in the quarter compared to $472 million in the prior year, reflecting increased volumes in Europe and strong results in our tin plate businesses, as well as continued operational improvements across the global manufacturing footprint. For the nine months ended September 30, free cash flow improved to $887 million from $668 million in the prior year, reflecting higher income and lower capital spending. The company repurchased $105 million of common stock in the quarter and $314 million year to date. When combined with dividends, we've returned more than $400 million to shareholders this year.

The company achieved its long-term net leverage target of 2.5 times in September and remains committed to a healthy balance sheet while returning excess cash to shareholders in the future. The company continued to perform well in the quarter with year-on-year improvements in segment income, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow. We have seen limited direct impact from tariffs and remain attentive to the indirect effects that tariffs have had on the global consumer and industrial demand. Considering our strong performance to date, we're raising our guidance for the full year, adjusted EPS to $7.70 to $7.80 and project the fourth quarter adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.65 to $1.75. Our adjusted earnings guidance for the full year includes modest changes to the following assumptions. We expect net interest expense of approximately $350 million. Exchange rates assume the U.S.

dollar at an average of $1.13 to the euro. Non-controlling interest expense to be approximately $150 million, and dividends and non-controlling interest are expected to be approximately $140 million. Remaining unchanged, we expect a full-year tax rate of 25%, depreciation of approximately $310 million. We now estimate 2025 full-year adjusted free cash flow to be approximately $1 billion after $400 million of capital spending and net leverage to remain close to our long-term net leverage target of 2.5 times. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning to everyone. I'll be brief and then we'll open the call to questions. As Kevin just summarized and as reflected in last night's earnings release, third quarter results were better than expected. Consolidated earnings per share advanced 13% as the strength of our balanced portfolio drove higher segment income and cash flow, in turn lowering interest costs. Strong demand in European beverage and an improving cost structure across the U.S. tin plate businesses combined to offset weakness across Latin America. Two items to remind everyone of. First, delivered aluminum reached $2.10 a pound last Friday. That is up $0.74 a pound or 54% in the last 10 months, primarily from the increased United States delivery premium. We contractually passed through aluminum, so the increased denominator effect will reduce percentage margins, not absolute margins.

This is primarily a North American issue, and it had about a 1.25% impact on America's beverage margins in the third quarter. Second, as most of you are aware, we operate our Brazilian operations through a joint venture. As Brazil profits go up or down, the minority interest that you see on the face of the income statement will also go up or down. The lower minority interest that you see in the third quarter are the result of the lower Brazilian income, which is reported in the America's beverage segment income. Following numerous quarters of above-market growth, including 10% in last year's third quarter, America's beverage volumes were down 5% in the quarter, the result of a 15% volume decline across Brazil and Mexico. The effects of an uncertain and tariff-weary Mexican consumer, combined with the coldest Brazilian winter in 20 years, subdued demand.

We do expect the fourth quarter in Brazil to return to growth, and 2026 in Brazil may be bolstered by government initiatives to lower interest rates and provide subsidies to the lower-income populations. As discussed earlier, the net earnings impact to the company is somewhat muted by the reduction in the Brazilian minority interest. North American volumes were mixed in the quarter, down 3% after getting off to a slow start in July and August. However, activity rebounded firmly in September, which was up 3%, and shipments to date in October have also been strong. For reference, North American volumes were up 5%, and Latin American volumes were up more than 18% in the prior year third quarter. European beverage posted a record quarter with income 27% above the prior year on the back of 12% volume growth.

As has been the case throughout the year, growth was recorded in each region of the segment as the can continues to gain share across Europe, while in the Gulf states, the emergence of local brands is driving outsized growth. Margins across Asia remained above 17% in the quarter despite lower Southeast Asian volumes of 3% as Asian industries and consumers alike feel the pinch of higher tariffs to their economies. Transit packaging income remained level to the prior year as increased shipments and continuing cost efforts offset the impact of lower equipment activity. The industrial markets remain challenging, but the transit team is executing well to control costs and generate cash. North American food can benefited from firm harvest demand and efficiency improvements to recently installed capacity.

Combined with a lower cost structure in aerosol cans and increased activity in can-making equipment, results in other significantly exceeded the prior year third quarter. In summary, performance across the portfolio resulted in another strong quarter. Segment income up 4% and earnings per share up 13% against a very strong prior year third quarter. European beverage reflects the ongoing benefits from overall market growth and substitution. North American food continues to gain from new capacity brought online over the last two years. The balance sheet is strong, and when combined with robust cash flow, the company remains well-positioned to responsibly return cash to shareholders. Lastly, before we open the call to questions, we've had an exceptional year in 2023 as the entire Crown family continues the mission to serve our brand partners, and we sincerely thank them. With that, El, we are now ready to take questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jer. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and then the number one. Please unmute your phone and record your name and company name clearly when prompted. These are required to introduce your question. To cancel your request, please press star and then the number two. Our first question comes from the line of George Staphos at Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Thanks so much. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details.

Hi, George. How are you?

Congratulations on the progress. I guess the first question I had, Europe, you grew 12% as you stated. Share gains, I think, from a pack mix standpoint and underlying market growth. Can you give us a bit more color? In particular, should we worry at all about pre-buying lapping tough comps at some point? How long do you see Europe growing at, maybe not 12%, but at what's been the historical rate given what's been very, very strong growth through the first nine months? I had one or two follow-ons.

Speaker 4

Okay. Good question, George. It'll allow me to say something that I do want to get out on the call as well. The third quarter of last year, I think Europe was up 6%, up 12% this year. George, you've been around a long time like I have. Maybe I have more gray hair, but you know that 6% and 12% is not the history of the can business, right? The can business is a low-growth business with pockets of outsized growth requiring discipline. Cash flow is quite high, and it gives you the opportunity to generate a lot of value. Anybody expecting the company to grow 12% quarter after quarter or expecting us to grow earnings per share 20% year after year, you know, that's not what the can industry is, right? It's certainly much more stable than that.

Having said that, I don't think we would ascribe any volume growth that we had this year in Europe to pre-buy. I think, as we've said before, and I know repeatedly, Tim and Kevin have told you before, the long-term growth rate in Europe has been on the order of 4% to 4.5%, 4% to 5%. Got a couple of open years in there, perhaps when the Germans outlawed cans and some other things. For the most part, over the last 20 to 25 years, it's been pretty consistent, the amount of growth. I just point out that while the segment was up 12% in the quarter, Continental Europe was up more than the Middle East. This was a European-driven growth phenomenon, and I think it's largely to do with growth itself, underlying growth, and substitution, as we've discussed before.

Okay. Appreciate that, Tim. Second question, as we think about the year and certainly what looks to be an up fourth quarter versus where we were and where consensus was, how are you thinking about the Americas EBIT overall? At one point in time, you mentioned $1 billion of EBIT, I think, if I'm correct, as being aspirational. Can you talk about what the outlook is for the year? If you can talk a little bit about, in terms of the third quarter or however you want to frame it, what the profit impact negatively was from what you saw in Mexico and Brazil and how that's woven into the $1 billion. Lastly, in other, and I'll turn it over, was there any pickup from spread or is it purely cost reduction and your volume increase that drove the performance? Thank you.

All right. You're going to have to stay on the line, George, because you asked a bunch of questions.

I'm going to.

The first one was long, so repeat the just get me started on the first one again.

Basically, the $1 billion of EBIT being media.

Oh, the $1 billion.

Is that still the case? You know Brazil, Mexico, kind of what impact did they have? Then.

A billion dollars, I was prepared to again tell you this morning it was aspirational. Kevin reminded me this morning that it looks like we will get there this year. Brazil, Mexico, Mexico, we own 100% of our operations, George. Brazil is a joint venture. If you look at the difference in minority interest, which is what, $12 million to $15 million? If you want to say the impact of Brazil itself was more than $20 million in the quarter. The impact from Mexico, Mexican cans, glass was flattish to slightly up in the quarter. Mexican cans was also an impact of about $5 million or $6 million in the quarter. More than the total decline in Americas beverage came from Mexico and Brazil.

Got it. Spreads in metal and steel, I'll turn it over.

I don't believe at this time we're benefiting in the third quarter from any spreads in steel. Perhaps there was some spread benefit earlier in the year, but in the third quarter, I don't believe we had any.

Thank you very much, guys. I'll turn it over.

Thanks, George.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question will be from Benjamin Lowe. Your line is now open.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody.

Morning, guys.

Morning. Morning. If we switch to North America, I think you said, Tim, volumes down 3%. That's sort of a mixed start to the quarter, end of the quarter much better. What do you think the industry did during the third quarter? Is there anything else going on in terms of movement as it relates to promotional spending that's a little bit more episodic? You're seeing that as your customers adjust things? What do you think is going on in the market?

Speaker 4

Tom does his best to estimate the market. Not everybody reports data, so we have to make some estimates. As we said, we were down 3% in the quarter, and Tom's best estimate is perhaps the market was up 2% in the quarter. We will have underperformed the market. Our underperformance is specific to one customer that we pruned at the start of the year. I'll leave it at that. It was a complicated customer with short runs, a lot of label changes. Frankly, the pricing didn't warrant the complexity put on the factories, the inefficiencies put on the factories. We didn't participate, no longer participate in that account. What do I think is going on with promotions? I'll tell you, in the summer, it felt like they were much more aggressive promoting. I think through the third quarter, even through Labor Day, it didn't feel like promotions.

We've got folks that are in supermarkets up in the Philadelphia area, and we're down here in the Florida area. We're not covering the whole country, but it didn't feel like, when you go to the supermarket and you look, because it's one thing for your customers to tell you what they're doing nationally. It's another thing to actually walk into stores and see the promotions. It didn't feel like they were heavily promoting. I think the strength in the market, if the market is indeed up 2%, as Tom says, is more about the resilience of the beverage can, is more about the experience that the consumer has with affordable pleasures in a challenging environment. I think it shows the strength of the can and shows the strength of our industry. I'm not trying to be promotive when I say that.

I just don't see the promotions from our customers driving the growth. I see the consumer, just the consumer demand for the product right now driving the growth.

Okay, fair enough. Just related to that, based on what you said about pruning and some of the adjustments in the market, what's your base case as it relates to volume specific to North American beverage for 2026? I'm just trying to get a sense as it relates to if there's any spillover from the pruning and so on and so forth. For my second question on Europe, given the strength, which has been phenomenal for multiple years, how do you feel about capacity in the region and your specific footprint to align with that growth expectations having changed pretty nicely over the years?

Yeah, so we like our footprint. We're very strong in the perimeter. There's some pockets in the central part of the European continent where we're smaller or not present. The only thing I would tell you is the margin opportunity in those regions has not justified us putting capacity in. I think that, and we've talked about this before, because we're on the perimeter and we're closer, we're very strong across the Mediterranean. We do benefit when tourism is up, and tourism was up this summer. It can go either way, Donahue, but this year we were the beneficiaries of a strong tourism season.

I do think, again, as I said to George, I don't think that, and you've been around a long time as well, Donahue, I don't think anybody should ever anticipate that 12% is a number that you should expect companies in the can business to print every quarter. We may get a quarter or two like that every so often, but the growth rate in Europe is, as you said, it's been very nice. 4% to 5% for 20 plus years, we'll take that for the next 20 years. Capacity, there are pockets of open capacity, specific to one or two regions, but by and large, the market's in pretty good shape. From time to time, the hope is we're all responsible and we pick our moments as to when we want to add more capacity.

Beverage North America 2026, volumes?

I think, as we've said before, we expect to be up next year.

Okay, fair enough. Thank you.

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question will be from Stefan Diaz of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning, Tim. Good morning, Kevin.

Speaker 4

Hi, Stefan.

Hi, yeah. Maybe just to begin, can you give more details on the drivers for the better than expected performance in other? I know in the prepared remarks you said that food cans are strong. Maybe you saw some green shoots in the equipment business. On a go-forward basis, how should we think about the earnings power in this business?

Last year was not a very good year, right? The comp was low. I never want to say anything is easy, but the comp was low. We knew coming into this year we were going to do much better across food and aerosol, food with some volume gains early in the year. We brought on three new lines over the last couple of years, two two-piece lines, and then we have a three-piece line, two three-piece lines that are co-located at a customer facility. All are operating much better now than they were earlier. Volume growth, let's say pet food in Q1, vegetables in Q2, pretty constant volume in Q3, but really a lot of efficiency gain here in Q3 in food. We did close an aerosol can plant last year, so the aerosol cost structure is much lower, so we're benefiting from that.

I almost used the term green shoots in my prepared remarks, but I thought better of it. Although I will tell you that equipment sales, equipment and tool sales in can making are up. In Q3, profitability is up. There is growth globally in beverage can and beverage can equipment. It's in a lot of regions of the world that many Americans are not familiar with. We do operate a global equipment business out of the headquarters in the UK. Green shoots, I don't know, it might be too early to say that, but I think we're happy with where the business looks like it's going right now.

Okay, great. That's helpful. Maybe in Signode, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you expected like a $25 million headwind due to tariffs in that business. You were able to grow income there modestly. Is this headwind still the right way to think about 2025? Maybe just sticking with Signode, it seems like revenue declines have been getting better over the previous two quarters. Do you think the business is in a position to maybe start growing top line as we look into 4Q and 2026? Thank you.

Yeah, so just on the revenue, remember one thing, we also passed through material costs in Signode, and by and large, that's steel, not tin plate steel, but steel and plastics. As the price of those commodities move up or down, our revenues move up or down. In total, overall volumes would have been lower. Equipment and tools would have been lower. They're higher value items that get sold, and they're higher margin items that get sold, offset by plastic strap, which was up nicely in the quarter. I'll wait right now before I say we're at a bottom. I think there are some things that still need to be sorted out with tariffs and everything else before we get too confident on where we think cross-border shipments of equipment are likely to be as we go forward. Tariffs, Kevin and I looked at this the other day.

I would say we said that originally we expected $10 million of direct tariffs. I think we still expect that through three quarters. We're in the $7 million, $7.5 million range. We expect the $10 million. Indirect, we said $15 million, which was a function of lower order patterns from customers given uncertainty and/or increased cost for some of the equipment that we make in Switzerland or Finland that would have to come into the U.S. We are seeing lower equipment and tool sales that are made abroad that would otherwise come into the U.S. I think that's still a good number. As I said, the transit team is doing a really nice job of managing their cost structure, looking for ways to reduce cost, running more efficiently, running more responsibly.

The one thing we have delivered to the Signode franchise since we've owned it now for seven years is we've brought them back to understanding they are a manufacturing company. As we try to do in our can business, we've put a number of the former can guys into Signode who are helping them understand the positive benefits of efficiency and lower spoilage and lower labor hours to make as many or more units. I think it's paying off. Cost structure is a lot lower. The opportunity for us to benefit greatly when the industrial markets return is there. I just, it's a little too early to call for that right now.

Thank you. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Stefan.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question will be from Chris Parkinson of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Great. Thank you so much. Tim, when we think about your global operations, we've seen consistent improvements in operating profitability. Could you just do a quick fly-by of how we should be thinking about that in terms of 2026 and where you think you still could be seeing some opportunities? Obviously, given that just the asset changes in Asia, it would be one of my top of mind. Also, in the U.S., it just seems like some of your newer facilities over the last five years continue to operate a little bit more efficiently. If you could give us some color there, it would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Yeah, listen, I think that we're going to continue to improve operations. I mean, it's not a, you know, the manufacturing team has goals every year, and the goal is to get better every year. We've described to you before that we typically characterize our plants in one of three buckets. If you're in the bottom bucket, you're expected to be the top bucket the next year. It doesn't always happen, but that's the goal, continuous improvement. From that standpoint, we always expect the manufacturing teams to do a better job. That's their job. Having said that, one thing that will happen as the price of quoted aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increases, and more specifically as the delivery premium stays higher for longer, we will have percentage margin impact, especially in North America. That will flow through the America's beverage segment as we pass through one for one.

The denominator gets bigger with the same dollar. You understand the denominator effect. We'll see how Mexico and Brazil do next year in the face of a tariff environment that has consumers and customers alike a little uncertain to this point. I should mention that across Asia, the tariff environment is perhaps even more impactful than it is in Brazil. All in all, margins across our business are pretty healthy. I think in every reportable segment we have, we're well into the double digits. Even transit is a business right now where demand is low, but they're making above 13%. We describe that as a 12% to 15% business.

Historically, if you look across packaging land, 12% to 15% in a low-growth, low-capital-intensive business is really quite nice because you generate a lot of cash and give the management team a lot of flexibility in how to return the money to shareholders. We're quite happy with the portfolio at this point.

Just as a quick follow-up, when we're thinking about your free cash flow conversion, given your updated number for 2025, how should you think about it then 2026 in terms of priorities now that you've hit your 2.5 times leverage target in terms of buybacks and anything else you're considering? Thank you.

Yeah, Kevin does want to tell you that we've probably got a little timing on CapEx flipping in the next year, but we're still going to have exceptional cash flow next year. As we said in the press release, balance sheet's in really good shape. We'll responsibly return cash to shareholders. We might move debt up or down a little bit, but we're going to be in and around 2.5 times, and there's a lot of cash left over to return.

Thank you so much.

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Next question will be from Anthony Pettinari of Citigroup. Your line is open.

Good morning. Just following up on the last question. The CapEx that was lowered for this year, I guess it just shows up in next year. I don't know if you had any kind of further comments about CapEx specifically in 2026, just given that, you know, North America, Europe seems like, you know, the system is probably running pretty full, or I'm not sure how you'd characterize it, but any call you can give there?

Speaker 4

I would characterize it this way because it's a good question. I would say they're running full enough for everyone to be responsible and have a good margin environment. Now, you know, the history of the world, people get greedy and they try to take more than they need to. The systems are pretty full, and we should find a way to operate and improve. Everybody should find a way to improve. You know, we originally said $450 million is capital this year. We're going to be about $400 million. If we thought about $450 million and $450 million, maybe next year is in the $450 million to $500 million range.

Okay. That's very helpful. Just switching gears on transit, how did transit demand kind of hold up in 3Q relative to the expectations you shared with us over the summer? As we think about 4Q and finishing the year, is demand improving, is it deteriorating, or is it kind of in line with 3Q? Any thoughts you can give there?

I would say that on the commodity side, that is steel and plastic strap, film, all the protective products, actually holding up, and specifically in India and the United States, holding up much better than we had initially anticipated at the beginning of the year. That's probably driving a little bit of the slightly better performance that we had in Q2 and Q3 than we might have otherwise expected. It's offset by lower equipment and tools, which is, you know, much higher margin business. Equipment and tools impacted by the tariffs. Perhaps in a reverse way, tariffs are going to help our commodity businesses because it just becomes that much more expensive to bring commodity products into the country from overseas. All in all, I think holding up as we expected or just a touch better.

Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over.

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question will be from Phil Ng of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Hey, guys. Strong quarter, congrats. So Tim, I guess, you know, when we think about North America this year, the market's up. It's been a little noisy for you guys, but it sounds like you're seeing good momentum in the fourth quarter. When you kind of look at 2026, it sounds like you expect growth again. You know, how are you positioned now? I know during the summer months, you were sold out. Inventory was pretty tight. Do you think you're going to be in a position to better service that demand next year? You made the point that, you know, everyone's got decent capacity and you should be able to make good money and profitability. In this period, I believe there are some contracts that are going to be up for renewal in North America in the next 12 to 24 months.

Do you view that as an opportunity to sustain profitability at these levels and build off of it, or are there some risk factors that we should be appreciative of?

Speaker 4

The risk factor is that we're in a competitive business and not everybody has the same goals and aspirations as everybody else. We operate our business the way we operate our business, and I can't really comment on how other people operate their business, but I think we've done a nice job over the last several years bringing on capacity at reasonable margins and trying to get a return as quick as we can for the amount of money it costs to build and run a can plant. I think that we'll see where the market takes us. We're not unhappy with our margin profile.

Got it. Your ability to service that North America demand next year, it was a little tighter this year.

No, we should be okay to service the demand next year. Not an issue.

Okay. Europe, obviously, really strong growth. To your point, capacity is pretty tight. Same question, your ability to kind of service that demand and lapping pretty tough comps, appreciating mid-single-digit growth is historically how it's grown. Is that still a good way to think about things when we look at 2026?

Yeah, we have, you know, we bought the German plant sometime early last year, I guess it was, and we're still trying to bring them through the Crown learning curve as opposed to whatever learning curve they thought they were on before, but it is getting better. That yields more cans as you go through that process. We are modernizing a facility in Greece. Essentially, we're operating the two old can lines currently, but we're building two new can lines on the same property. When they're done, they'll be much higher speed, obviously greater output capacity, and we'll take down the old lines when we're done. We are adding capacity in Europe as we speak. There are other ways that we're looking at to incrementally add capacity if needed.

Got it. Remind me when those two new plants come online. Brief?

It's two lines, not two plants.

I'm sorry, two lines.

Yeah, they should be done sometime early next year.

Okay. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

You're welcome.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question will be from Matt Roberts of Raymond James. Sir, your line is open.

Hey, Tim, Kevin, good morning. Let's take another. Morning. Let me take another stab here at 2026, lest I berate the point. Based on the demand you're seeing now, do you continue to expect to build inventory in 4Q? More broadly, it seems like at Max last week, a lot of customers seem to be showing off innovation or areas of growth. Are there areas of the portfolio where you'd like to lean into more in 2026, or on the contrary, certain pockets of the portfolio that are becoming more competitive going into 2026 that you'd want to diversify away from to protect price and margin?

Speaker 4

I don't know if there's anything I'd say is becoming more competitive. The business has always been very competitive, and I don't think we really want to lean away from anything. I think, you know, Kevin and I were talking earlier, we mentioned earlier to you the price of delivered aluminum right now at $2.10 a pound. Most of that increase is being made up by the increased delivery premium. This is the highest that we ever remember. It does remind us of mid to late 2022 when a massive rise in the aluminum price to the delivered aluminum to the mid-$4,000s a ton did have an inflationary impact across the can business. The one thing that our business survives very well is recessionary environments. Many businesses and demand, you do worry about inflation.

Let's see before we get too excited about next year, let's see what higher aluminum and higher inflation because of aluminum means to not only our customers, but also to the consumers. Nothing that we're going to lean away from. It's just, you know, you're always mindful of inflation.

That certainly makes sense. Thank you, Tim. One more on Europe. You did note Continental did better than Middle East. Within Continental Europe, was that across the board for the market or more specific to your, I'll call it, Southern Europe exposure?

For us, it was across the board.

Okay. You did note tourism. It seems like some travel companies are saying tourism season is getting expanded. Was that evident in October, or does that impact seasonality in that business at all going forward, or just too minimal, all things considered?

No, tourism is very big from, let's say, May to September. It is more seasonal than it's not an October phenomenon.

Okay. Appreciate that. Maybe I could squeeze one last one in. It looks like you have some maturities due in 2026. Just to refinance the zero notes, plans to address remaining maturities or impact the interest in 2026 from that. Thanks for taking all the questions.

Speaker 6

Yes. Matt, in terms of the 2026 notes, if you look at the balance sheet now, we really have cash on the balance sheet to settle those notes. Some of them have different call dates. We will look at the call dates and address them as they come due. In terms of interest expense for next year, I would think it's largely in line with this year, is what I would forecast.

Tim, Kevin, thank you again.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Thank you, Matt.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question will be from Mike Roxland of Truist Securities. Sir, your line is open.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Tim, Kevin, Tom, for taking my questions, and congrats on a strong quarter. Tim, just would love to get your thoughts around capital allocation for 2026. Given you've had a strong growth this year, increasing free cash flow generation, which you just increased with your updated guide, you're now at your targeted leverage level. How should we think about capital return next year, particularly in light of some of the expansion projects you've mentioned as well that you're pursuing in Europe?

I think you said this year capital is $400 million. We said next year is $450 million to $500 million. That doesn't materially reduce cash flow, but you know, if you want to say we got $1 billion in this year and you're only happy with $900 million next year, we'll be happy with $900 million next year. We'll see where it comes out. As we said, the balance sheet's in pretty good shape. At the end of the third quarter, we're 2.5 times levered. Whether we're 2.3 or 2.7 or 2.5, I'm not sure. You know, the world we're in right now makes a whole lot of difference. I think it gives us the flexibility, depending on the share price, to be opportunistic, how and when we want to return more cash to shareholders.

I mean, I totally get it. Do you think, given the accelerating free cash flow, that you could repurchase $400 million of shares, $500 million worth of shares, any number that you'd like to just give as a baseline, given your strong performance for 2026?

I could give you a whole lot of numbers. I don't want to give you a number because you're going to write it down. You can do the math. Clearly, you know, if you want to start with $900 million, if we don't buy back a number like you just said, what are we going to do with the cash? We can either pay down debt or buy back stock. I don't mean to not give you an answer. I just don't want to say I'm going to buy back a certain amount. If the price doesn't make sense, we'll see where we get to. There's adequate cash to allow us, I don't want to say unlimited flexibility, but a lot of flexibility in what we do.

Totally get it. One quick follow-up just on the CapEx, the $450 to $500 million. Is that solely related to the two new lines in Greece and the modernization of the German plant? Is there anything else that we should be mindful of with CapEx, and could that number actually wind up being higher if you decide to pursue other projects? Thank you.

We also have a plant, a third line that we're putting in a plant in Brazil that we've talked about earlier. That is included in there. There may or may not be one other opportunity that we've not decided on, certainly not announced yet.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Sir, your line is open.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on a very strong quarter there. I guess first off, just in North America, I understand that I think your volumes maybe, I think you mentioned minus 3%, industry may be at plus 2%. I think you attributed a good portion of that to some customer mix issues by your own intentions earlier in the year. Would you characterize the rest of your portfolio as somewhat in line with industry, excluding that event, or maybe ahead or behind? I think you guys are a little bit under-indexed to energy versus your peers. Did that result in maybe a less than industry performance, or would you say that you guys were in line and seeing pockets of strength elsewhere?

Speaker 4

I think the customer prune probably gets us pretty close to flat year over year. There is slight underperformance, and you may want to attribute that to under-indexing energy. The other thing I would tell you is that alcohol was stronger in Q3 than we've seen for some time. As you know, we're under-indexed to beer in North America. That could have attributed some of it as well.

Okay, that's helpful. If we consider that maybe, you know, you will post some growth, as you noted, in Americas next year, do you expect also, you know, continued growth in, you know, the other segments as well? I mean, European beverage really, you know, standout performance, you know, but you are going to be facing pretty tough comps there. Signode and non-reportables or transit non-reportables appear to have achieved a structurally higher earnings power level. Is that correct? Is that a fair characterization? Can you grow from what you did this year, or is this year more transitory?

I think, you know, we expect the European business to continue to grow volume and income-wise. I think the can still has penetration available to it across Southern Europe, and it certainly has substrate shift available to it across the entire continent. Transit, the cost structure is significantly lower than it was a couple of years ago. That business is only waiting for industrial demand to pick up, and there are embedded gains in that business. As I've said before, whether that's one, two, or three years away, I can't answer it for you, but the business from a cost standpoint is in excellent shape. Food business, I would say that, as you know, food is not a growth business. We expect food to be a very stable business. We do see the move from human food in cans shifting more to pet food in cans, and that is ongoing.

We have a very large and stable pet food presence, and we're going to continue to benefit from that. I think the growth that we're likely to see in the other segment comes from greater efficiencies on stable volumes in food and aerosol, combined with some recovery in the can-making equipment business over time.

I really appreciate that. If I could squeeze one last in, just on the Midwest premium and maybe even aluminum in Europe, I know that the % margin may start to get impacted, but would that inflation also potentially start to impact demand at some point, especially in Europe, as you potentially negotiate those price increases, or how does that work?

Yeah, so I mean, obviously, we did say North America, we are mindful of inflation, the impact of inflation on the consumer specific to higher delivered aluminum, which is mostly related to the Midwest premium right now. The delivery premium in Europe is not the Midwest premium, and it's not as elevated as the Midwest premium because they're not dealing with a tariff structure for imported aluminum. We don't have the same inflationary element, notwithstanding the London Metal Exchange price for aluminum. I don't right now have the same concern with European demand that I do with North American demand.

Great. Thanks.

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question will be from Josh Spector of UBS. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning. First, I just want to ask a quick follow-up on free cash flow and deployment there. I think in response to an earlier question, you talked about paying off some of your debt coming due. Just curious, do you think you need to reduce your gross debt level from here, or just trying to think about why do that versus refi and buybacks since next year and how you're thinking about it?

Speaker 6

We give you a net debt leverage ratio, which is 2.5 times. The cash on the balance sheet right now is really there to pay off debt that's coming due. It's a net leverage, so it doesn't move. As we think about it going forward, absolute debt levels, we're comfortable with the absolute debt level because it tells us the net debt level because we're at the 2.5 times. We do have to address the bonds that are coming due to use the cash and refinance, you're effectively levering up at that point. We're comfortable at the net leverage ratio of 2.5 times.

Speaker 4

Yeah, we don't expect any levering up to satisfy 2026 maturities. Just to summarize it, I think we're in and around the long-term target of 2.5 times. If we took all the cash flow we generated next year and paid dividends and bought back stock, we'd still be levered in and around 2.5 times.

Okay, I appreciate that. Just to ask on the Novelis fire that was reported earlier, from this call, it doesn't sound like that's impacting your volumes at all. I'm curious, does it have any impact for you or your view on what the impact there could be on the industry?

The direct impact to Crown from that fire is not as large as it is to others, including some of the customers. That does not mean there's not an indirect impact. Novelis is looking to subsidize lost automobile production with can sheet production. We are monitoring that. We do not have a lot of exposure to Novelis in total, but we are mindful of the impact on some of the customers we have that do buy directly from them. We do not see a negative impact to the company over the next several months.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question will be from Edwin Rodriguez of Mizuho. Sir, your line is open.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Tim, when you look at share repurchase, again, since earnings last quarter in July, there was a long down spell in the stock. Was there any thinking of trying to be more aggressive with buying back shares over the past couple of months, or was getting to the targeted leverage a higher priority?

Speaker 4

I don't think there was any priority to get to the targeted leverage. I think we got to the targeted leverage a little earlier than we anticipated, probably for three reasons. We generated a little bit more cash than we thought we would. Some of that was the result of more earnings than we thought we would have. I think currency helped us as well. We do have a fair amount of debt that's denominated in euros, and the euro did devalue a little bit in Q3. All of that helped us get to that leverage target a little sooner than we thought we would. Whether we got to 2.5 times by the end of this year or sometime next year was never really our concern. It was a target, and we had a clear pathway to get there over time.

You know, when we chose to buy back stock was more a function of as we got further through the third quarter and the big season, you get a little bit more comfortable where the season's going to end up. That was all it was.

Okay. One last one on Europe again. Clearly outperformed even your expectation, I believe. Over the past couple of months, as the quarter progresses, what were the big surprises versus what you were expecting? 12% volume growth, and maybe I think you were expecting maybe it could be like half of that or a little more. What were the big surprising items there for you?

I think we always knew we were going to have a real strong campaign in Europe. We were at a conference in early September, and all we did at that conference was tell people, you know, the analyst at this conference put out a note that said the weather in Brazil was really lousy and demand was lousy. We tried to remind everybody we have other businesses. Namely, we have a European business that's going to do really well. We did expect Europe to do really well. I think it was broad-based, broad-based across our portfolio in Europe, which is, as I said earlier, perimeter-based and does benefit from tourism, and we just had a very strong season.

Okay, thank you very much.

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our last question will be from Jeff Zekauskas of J.P. Morgan. Sir, your line is open.

Thanks very much. In your share repurchase, did you buy your shares rapidly through the quarter? Sequentially, I think your share count is down maybe 150,000 shares. Did you issue shares in the quarter, or is there an issuance number for this year?

Speaker 4

There were no shares issued in the quarter. The shares, how many shares did you buy, Kevin?

Million.

Speaker 6

We bought shares later in the quarter, Jeff. Yeah, a little over, almost $1.1 million.

Speaker 4

Would they have all been bought over a couple-week period?

Speaker 6

Yeah.

Speaker 4

Yeah.

Speaker 6

No share issuance, Jeff.

No share issuance.

As you look in the fourth quarter, has the European strong volume trend continued?

Speaker 4

We expect Europe to be very firm in the fourth quarter as well. As I said earlier, you should not expect 12% every quarter, but long-term compound annual growth rate for the region in the range of 4% to 4.5%, 4% to 5%, that's something reasonable to expect.

Great. Thanks so much.

Thank you. I think you said that was the last question. Thank you very much. We thank all of you for joining us, and we'll speak to you again in 2026. Bye now.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you, everyone, for joining. You may disconnect now and have a great day.