CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. (CCK)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Crown Holdings delivered a strong Q2 2025: adjusted diluted EPS rose 19% to $2.15 and segment income grew 9% to $476M, with net sales up 3.6% to $3.149B .
• Results beat Wall Street consensus across EPS, revenue, and EBITDA; management raised FY 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.10–$7.50 and increased adjusted free cash flow target to ~$900M, citing strength in Americas Beverage, European Beverage, and North American Food .
• Q3 2025 adjusted EPS guidance was set at $1.95–$2.05; management flagged tariff-related uncertainty, particularly in Transit Packaging, but reiterated long-term net leverage target of 2.5x and prioritization of cash returns to shareholders .
• Call tone was confident: tight supply in North America and Europe, sustained volume growth in Europe, strong operational performance and favorable mix, while Asia Pacific volumes were weak and Transit Packaging remained exposed to macro softness .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Segment income increased 9% YoY to $476M, driven by strong Americas Beverage, European Beverage and North American Food; “another quarter of record income” in Europe and global operations highlighted exceptional performance .
  • Adjusted EPS beat and FY guidance raised: “trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA through June approaching $2.1 billion” and company “well positioned to increase its return of cash to shareholders” .
  • North American Food volumes up 9% with “exceptionally strong vegetable volumes,” and closures improved; Other segment income up 150% .

• What Went Wrong

  • Asia Pacific volumes down high-single digits market-wide; company volumes declined double digits with asset impairment and restructuring charges recorded .
  • Transit Packaging remained soft given “tepid industrial production” and tariff uncertainty; Q4 outlook carries widest range due to potential tariff effects .
  • FX and tariffs created planning complexity; management estimated ~$25M total tariff exposure (direct ~$10M; indirect ~$15M) incorporated into guidance .

Financial Results

Actual vs Consensus – Q2 2025

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Breakdown

KPIs

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Second quarter performance came in better than anticipated… leading to another quarter of record income” in European Beverage; NA Food volumes rose 9% led by vegetables .
• “Trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA through June approaching $2.1 billion… the Company has increased its full year 2025 expectations for adjusted earnings per share and adjusted free cash flow… well positioned to increase its return of cash to shareholders” .
• “Potential [tariff] exposure is estimated to be approximately $25 million, with direct and indirect exposures of approximately $10 million and $15 million… estimates are included in the revised guidance” .
• “I do think we’ll buy back a lot of stock over the next couple of years with free cash flow… number one and only priority we see is the return of cash to shareholders” .

Q&A Highlights

• Segment cadence vs tough comps: Americas Beverage expected to be around last year’s high levels in Q3; continued improvement in Europe and NA Food; Q4 carries widest range due to tariffs .
• Margin sustainability: Americas Beverage segment EBIT margins eclipsed ~19%; management prefers focusing on absolute margin given aluminum pass-through dynamics .
• Inventory positioning: Company is “a few hundred million less cans in inventory than we would like,” planning to rebuild in Q4 ahead of a tight 2026 .
• CapEx and growth projects: FY25 capex ~$450M maintained; third line in Ponta Grossa (Brazil) and modernization in Greece progressing; room for incremental growth spend if needed .
• APAC softness: Market down high-single digits; Crown down double digits; continued cost discipline and asset write-downs in China .

Estimates Context

• Q2 2025 delivered broad beats: EPS $2.15 vs $1.875 consensus (+$0.27) and revenue $3.149B vs $3.109B (+$0.04B); EBITDA 556M vs 509M (+$47M). Management raised FY guidance and projected Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.95–$2.05 .
• Prior quarters also showed beats vs consensus (e.g., Q1 2025 EPS $1.67 vs $1.231; revenue $2.887B vs $2.818B; EBITDA $468M vs $406M), underpinning estimate momentum. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Q2 beat and FY guidance raise should support positive estimate revisions and sentiment; sustained strength in Beverage and NA Food plus operational execution are key drivers .
• Supply-demand tightness in NA/EU and low inventories are supportive of pricing/volume; watch Q3 cadence vs tough comps and Q4 tariff uncertainty .
• Transit Packaging remains macro-sensitive; tariff exposure (~$25M) is manageable and embedded in guidance .
• Capital returns are front and center; leverage trending to 2.5x, robust cash generation (Q2 adjusted FCF $393M) provides buyback firepower .
• ESG credentials strengthened (SBTi net-zero validation; Forbes recognition), potentially broadening investor appeal .
• Near-term trading: emphasize beats and guidance raise; monitor tariff headlines and Q3 volumes. Medium-term thesis: margin resilience via operational excellence, disciplined capex, and shareholder returns, with Europe growth and NA Food strength offsetting APAC softness .