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CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. (CCK)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Solid Q4: Net sales $2.903B (+1.6% y/y), GAAP EPS $3.02 (includes $2.32 gain from Eviosys sale), Adjusted EPS $1.59 (+28% y/y). Combined global beverage can segment income +17% y/y on +4% global volume; Europe +8%, North America +7% .
  • 2025 outlook constructive: Adjusted EPS $6.60–$7.00, Q1 2025 $1.20–$1.30; Adjusted FCF ≈$800M with capex ≈$450M and adjusted tax ≈25% .
  • Balance sheet and cash: Record FY24 adjusted FCF $814M and net leverage down to 2.7x; plan to deploy ≈$800M 2025 FCF with bias to ~50/50 debt reduction and buybacks (flexible) .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: Outperformance vs prior Q4 guidance (Adj EPS $1.59 vs $1.45–$1.55), strong EU/NA beverage trends, record FCF, and clear 2025 EPS/FCF roadmap .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Beverage strength: “Combined global beverage can segment income improved 17%, driven by global volume growth of 4%, led by Europe +8% and North America +7%” (CEO) .
    • Cash and leverage: Record adjusted FCF $814M in 2024; net debt reduced $878M; net leverage 2.7x .
    • Europe trajectory: Q4 Europe Beverage segment income rose to $51M (from $18M y/y) on higher volumes; management expects “another record year” in 2025 on continued conversion to cans (CEO) .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Transit Packaging softness: Lower volume and profitability as industrial activity remains sluggish; Q4 segment income fell to $59M (from $75M y/y) .
    • Asia Pacific volume dip and charges: Q4 volumes down 4% as revenue-quality actions weighed; 2024 included asset impairment and restructuring charges in APAC contributing to non‑GAAP adjustments .
    • 2025 puts/takes: Anticipated PPI giveback in NA beverage contracts as input costs recede; Q1 expected Adj EPS $1.20–$1.30 (seasonally softer) .

Financial Results

Sequential performance (oldest → newest):

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Sales ($USD Millions)$3,040 $3,074 $2,903
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.45 $(1.47) $3.02
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.81 $1.99 $1.59
Income from Operations ($MM)$379 $444 $351
Segment Income ($MM)$437 $472 $428
Operating Margin (%)12.5% (379/3,040) 14.4% (444/3,074) 12.1% (351/2,903)
Segment Income Margin (%)14.4% (437/3,040) 15.4% (472/3,074) 14.7% (428/2,903)

Q4 year-over-year:

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024YoY
Net Sales ($USD Millions)$2,858 $2,903 +1.6%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.27 $3.02 NM (Eviosys gain)
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.24 $1.59 +28%
Income from Operations ($MM)$259 $351 +35.5%
Segment Income ($MM)$382 $428 +12.0%

Consensus vs. actuals:

  • S&P Global consensus data for Q4 2024 was unavailable due to API limits at retrieval time. We could not present “vs. estimates” comparisons. We note Q3 guidance implied Q4 Adj EPS $1.45–$1.55; actual came in at $1.59 (above guidance) .

Segment breakdown (Q4 yoy):

SegmentNet Sales Q4’23 ($MM)Net Sales Q4’24 ($MM)YoYSegment Income Q4’23 ($MM)Segment Income Q4’24 ($MM)YoY
Americas Beverage1,299 1,325 +2.0%255 275 +7.8%
European Beverage392 456 +16.3%18 51 +183.3%
Asia Pacific320 308 −3.8%47 48 +2.1%
Transit Packaging541 511 −5.5%75 59 −21.3%
Other306 303 −1.0%17 33 +94.1%
Corporate/Unalloc.———(30) (38) —

KPIs and notable items:

KPIQ4 2024FY 2024
Global Beverage Can Volume Growth+4% (Q4) +5% (FY shipments)
NA Beverage Volume+7% (Q4) +7% (FY)
Europe Beverage Volume+8% (Q4) +7% (FY)
Adjusted Free Cash Flow$146MM (Q4); record $814MM (FY) $814MM
Adjusted EBITDA—$1.942B
Net Leverage—2.7x
Eviosys Equity Sale$338MM proceeds; $275MM gain (Q4) —

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance / ActualChange
Adjusted EPSQ4 2024$1.45–$1.55 (as of Oct-17) $1.59 (actual) Beat prior guidance
Adjusted FCFFY 2024≥$750MM (as of Oct-17) $814MM (actual) Beat prior guidance
Adjusted EPSFY 2025n/a$6.60–$7.00 New
Adjusted EPSQ1 2025n/a$1.20–$1.30 New
Adjusted FCFFY 2025n/a≈$800MM New
CapexFY 2025n/a≈$450MM New
Adjusted Effective Tax RateFY 2025n/a≈25% New
Net Interest ExpenseFY 2025n/a≈$355–$360MM New
DepreciationFY 2025n/a≈$310MM New
NCI ExpenseFY 2025n/a≈$150MM New
NCI DividendsFY 2025n/a≈$130MM New
DividendOngoingPrior quarterly cadence$0.26 per share declared for 4/1/25 Maintained quarterly payout

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4)Trend
Global beverage demandQ2: Global can shipments +6%, NA +9% . Q3: Global +5%; broad-based (US, Europe, Mexico, Brazil ≥+5%) .Q4: Global +4%; EU +8%, NA +7%; beverage segment income +17% y/y .Strong, moderating from Q3; momentum intact.
Europe can conversion/regulatory backdropQ3: Europe volumes +5%+; performance exceeding expectations .CEO: “best-positioned” package; expects another record year for Europe in 2025 .Positive secular conversion (glass→can) continues.
Asia PacificQ2: APAC net sales down; segment income + (mix/efficiency) . Q3: APAC income +; volumes mixed .Q4 volumes −4% on prior revenue-quality actions; income firm; expect flat-to-better 2025 .Stabilizing; focus on returns/cash.
Transit PackagingQ2/Q3: Weaker volumes and equipment orders; in-line with soft industrial activity .Q4: Sluggish industrial activity; income down y/y; flat-to-marginally up 2025, H1 still soft .Trough conditions; watch for late-2025 recovery.
Pricing/Contracts—Expect PPI giveback on contract cycles in 2025; major NA renewals largely post-2026 .Mild 2025 headwind; contract runway intact.
Capital allocationQ3: Resumed buybacks; delever to <3.0x by YE .Plan to deploy ≈$800M FCF with ~50/50 debt reduction and buybacks; flexible vs valuation .Balanced; buyback cadence front-half weighted.
Tariffs/macro/FX—Tariff impacts indirect via consumer inflation; Midwest premium could rise; FX headwind ~$(0.10) EPS embedded in guide .Manageable; monitor policy and FX.
Automation/techQ3: Beverage equipment orders down as growth normalizes .Back-end automation (Signode) seeing adoption; masked by weak equipment orders .Long-term positive; near-term muted.

Management Commentary

  • “Combined global beverage can segment income improved 17%, driven by global volume growth of 4%, led by shipment increases in Europe and North America, which grew 8% and 7%, respectively.” – CEO Tim Donahue .
  • “We currently estimate 2025 full year adjusted free cash flow to be approximately $800 million after $450 million of capital spending… net leverage [to be] closer to…2.5x.” – CFO Kevin Clothier .
  • “We expect [Transit Packaging] flat to marginally up [in 2025], with the first 6 months reflecting current conditions.” – CEO .
  • “We… expect mid-single-digit growth in Europe [2025]… another record year… on the back of strong demand.” – CEO .
  • “Modeling… assumes 50-50 debt reduction and share repurchase… can change depending on how… we are valued.” – CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • North America outlook and contracts: 2025 NA beverage volumes modeled flat to market; PPI giveback a 2025 headwind; major NA renewals not due until end-2026/2027, supporting stability .
  • Capital returns: About $800M FCF in 2025; initial plan ~50/50 debt reduction vs buybacks; potential front-half weighted repurchases depending on valuation .
  • Europe growth durability: Confidence in mid-single-digit growth on substrate shift from glass; strong recycling infrastructure supports can adoption .
  • Asia Pacific: 2024 cost/base rightsizing largely done; 2025 income “in line to better”; consumer recovery still ~12 months out .
  • Industry/pricing structure: NA overcapacity concerns localized; multinationals disciplined; one-liner entrants exited, reducing irrational supply; pricing architecture to remain rational .
  • Tariffs/commodity: Tariff impact mainly indirect via consumer inflation; Midwest premium likely to rise; pass-through mechanisms and customer metal procurement mitigate direct risk .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) but data was unavailable due to API request limits at the time of analysis. As a result, we cannot provide definitive “vs. Street” comparisons at this time. However, Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.59 exceeded the company’s prior guidance range of $1.45–$1.55 from October 17, 2024 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Beverage franchise remains the growth engine: Broad-based volume gains (EU +8%, NA +7%) and manufacturing efficiency drove double‑digit segment income growth in Q4; 2025 setup remains constructive .
  • Clear 2025 algorithm: Adj EPS $6.60–$7.00, ≈$800M FCF, capex ≈$450M, tax ≈25%; Q1 seasonally soft but full‑year trajectory intact .
  • Capital returns accelerating: ~50/50 debt reduction and buybacks with flexibility; leverage already 2.7x and targeting ~2.5x by YE25 .
  • Europe poised for another record year; watch for sustained glass-to-can conversion tailwinds .
  • Headwinds manageable: Transit Packaging likely flat-to-slightly up in 2025 with H1 softness; NA beverage contracts imply some PPI giveback; FX/tariffs a watch item but not thesis-changing .
  • Execution credibility: Record FY24 adjusted FCF ($814M) and improved margins underscore operational progress; Eviosys monetization added cash and EPS uplift in Q4 .
  • Trading setup: Positive narrative on cash return and Europe demand; any incremental confirmation of Transit recovery or sustained NA discipline could be upside drivers.