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Codiak BioSciences, Inc. (CDAKQ)·Q3 2022 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2022 revenue was $0.522M, down 96% sequentially from $13.145M in Q2 (deferred collaboration recognition in prior quarters) and down 55% year-over-year from $1.157M; net loss improved to $19.3M vs $21.7M YoY as other income and warrant revaluation partly offset operating losses .
  • EPS was $(0.77), better than third-party consensus of $(0.82); revenue missed third-party consensus of ~$0.588M; S&P Global consensus was unavailable due to missing mapping .
  • Management reiterated focus on exoASO-STAT6 Phase 1 enrollment with initial clinical data expected in 1H 2023; CEPI seed funding up to $2.5M supports exoVACC pan betacoronavirus program and vaccine candidate selection .
  • Operationally, Q3 included an impairment of prepaid manufacturing services ($4.508M) and lower R&D/G&A vs prior year reflecting cost controls; restructuring was highlighted to concentrate resources on priority programs .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • EPS beat third-party consensus ($(0.77) vs $(0.82)) on lower OpEx and positive other income including warrant revaluation, despite minimal revenue recognition in Q3 .
  • Clinical execution advanced: continued patient enrollment in the systemically administered exoASO-STAT6 Phase 1 trial across HCC, gastric, and colorectal cancer; initial data guided for 1H 2023 .
  • External validation and funding: CEPI partnership provides up to $2.5M for exoVACC pan betacoronavirus program and supports preclinical completion and clinical candidate identification .
  • CEO tone emphasized prioritization and platform potential: “we prioritized our pipeline...advancing our engEx Platform and its potential in vaccine development and gene delivery” .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue collapsed sequentially ($0.522M vs $13.145M in Q2) as collaboration revenue recognition waned; top-line relied mainly on grant revenue in Q3 .
  • Impairment charge of $4.508M on prepaid manufacturing services elevated total operating expenses in Q3, contributing to operating loss of $21.4M .
  • Ongoing need for capital and restructuring acknowledged; management noted execution risks tied to cash resources and implementation of restructuring activities .

Financial Results

P&L Snapshot (USD Millions except EPS)

MetricQ3 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022
Revenue$1.157 $12.704 $13.145 $0.522
Loss from Operations$(21.496) $(8.251) $(7.017) $(21.396)
Net Loss$(21.702) $(8.028) $(6.775) $(19.278)
Diluted EPS$(0.97) $(0.36) $(0.30) $(0.77)
Weighted Avg Shares (MM)22.33 22.44 22.49 25.16

Revenue Breakdown (USD Millions)

ComponentQ3 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022
Collaboration Revenue$1.157 $12.704 $13.145 $0.028
Grant Revenue$0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.494
Total Revenue$1.157 $12.704 $13.145 $0.522

Operating Expenses (USD Millions)

MetricQ3 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022
Research & Development$15.467 $14.248 $12.798 $10.847
General & Administrative$7.186 $6.707 $7.364 $6.563
Impairment of Prepaid Mfg.$0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $4.508
Total OpEx$22.653 $20.955 $20.162 $21.918

KPIs and Balance Sheet Items

MetricQ1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities$56.5 $41.8 $51.8
Current Deferred Revenue$0.442 $0.292 $1.363
Long-Term Deferred Revenue$30.503 $17.341 $17.317
Note Payable (Net of Discount)$25.514 $25.596 $25.693
Operating Lease Liabilities (LT)$34.133 $33.362 $32.573
Shares Outstanding (Period End)22.49MM 22.55MM 36.83MM

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
exoASO-STAT6 Phase 1 – first patient dosing1H 2022Anticipated first patients dosed in 1H 2022 Initiated patient dosing in Q2 2022 Achieved
exoASO-STAT6 Phase 1 – initial data1H 2023Not previously specified in Q1/Q2 Initial data expected in 1H 2023 New timeline set
exoSTING Phase 2 initiation1H 2023Plan to initiate Phase 2 in bladder cancer in 1H 2023 No change reiterated; focus on priority programs Maintained
exoIL-12 Phase 2 initiation1H 2023Plan to initiate Phase 2 in expanded tumor types in 1H 2023 No change reiterated; focus on priority programs Maintained
exoVACC pan beta coronavirus – clinical candidate2022–1H 2023CEPI seed funding up to $2.5M to complete preclinical and identify candidate Advancing toward clinical candidate via CEPI partnership Maintained
engEx-AAV in vivo proof-of-concept1H 2023Data to be presented at ASGCT May 2022 (preclinical); ongoing program In vivo PoC expected later 2022; to be presented 1H 2023 Updated presentation timing

Note: No explicit financial guidance (revenue, margins, OpEx, tax) was provided in Q1–Q3 press releases; company emphasized program milestones and prioritization .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q3 2022 earnings call transcript was found; themes below reflect press release narratives.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3 2022)Trend
R&D execution (exoSTING/exoIL-12)Phase 1 data reported; planning Phase 2 in 1H 2023 Focus shifted to exoASO-STAT6; prior programs remain in plan Prioritize exoASO-STAT6; Phase 2 plans maintained
Systemic exosome delivery (exoASO-STAT6)Enrollment opened; dosing anticipated 1H 2022 Continued enrollment; initial data expected 1H 2023 Progressing (trial ongoing; data guided)
Platform validation (engEx)Reported platform-validating Phase 1 data (exoSTING/exoIL-12) Emphasis on vaccine and gene delivery potential Broadened to vaccines/gene delivery
PartnershipsCollaboration revenue recognition from Jazz; CEPI partnership announced CEPI funding supports exoVACC; pursuing strategic partnerships Active partnering
Financing/restructuringNot highlighted in Q1; Q2 financials showed cash decline Announced financing, restructuring, and reprioritization Cost discipline, focus
Manufacturing/operationsLonza-related cost reductions in R&D Impairment of prepaid manufacturing services ($4.508M) Operational adjustments

Management Commentary

  • “During the third quarter we prioritized our pipeline to focus on the clinical trial underway with exoASO‑STAT6...and on advancing our engEx Platform and its potential in vaccine development and gene delivery.” — Douglas E. Williams, Ph.D., President & CEO .
  • “We reported Phase 1 data sets from both our exoSTING and exoIL‑12 programs...demonstrating we were able to deliver repeat doses...with no observed systemic exposure or associated toxicity...while demonstrating tumor shrinkage...” — Douglas E. Williams, Ph.D. (Q2) .
  • “We remain on track to deliver...results from all five dose cohorts in our exoSTING trial...initial CTCL patient data from the exoIL‑12 program, and commencement of dosing...exoASO‑STAT6.” — Douglas E. Williams, Ph.D. (Q1) .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q3 2022 earnings call transcript was located; accordingly, Q&A themes and clarifications are unavailable. Company communication in Q3 centered on the press release highlighting prioritization, CEPI funding, and trial timelines .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable due to missing company mapping for CDAKQ; therefore, comparisons to SPGI consensus cannot be made.
  • Third-party sources indicate Q3 EPS of $(0.77) vs consensus $(0.82) (beat) and revenue of $0.522M vs consensus ~$0.588M (miss). Treat these as indicative only, not SPGI data .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue volatility is driven by collaboration accounting timing; Q3 relied on grant revenue, while Q1–Q2 benefited from deferred collaboration recognition, underscoring non-linear top-line cadence .
  • Cost discipline evident: R&D and G&A lower YoY; however, Q3 impairment ($4.508M) amplified OpEx and operating loss, suggesting near-term financial headwinds from operational adjustments .
  • Clinical catalysts into 1H 2023: exoASO‑STAT6 initial data expected; Phase 2 initiations for exoSTING/exoIL‑12 remain targeted for 1H 2023, supporting medium-term value inflection potential .
  • Platform and partnering optionality: CEPI funding advances exoVACC and management is pursuing strategic partnerships at program/platform/corporate level—potential non-dilutive funding avenues .
  • Capital needs and execution risks persist: Management links timelines to cash availability and successful restructuring execution; watch for financing updates and partnership progress .
  • Near-term trading lens: Lack of SPGI consensus limits estimate-based positioning; focus on upcoming clinical readouts, restructuring milestones, and any additional grant/collaboration disclosures as stock catalysts .
  • Share count increased materially by Q3 (36.83MM vs 22.55MM in Q2), dilutive effect to monitor alongside future capital raises .