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Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Strong beat versus consensus: revenue $360.1M vs $296.8M consensus and adjusted EPS $0.11 vs -$0.01 consensus; GAAP EPS $0.06. Reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance; net leverage fell to 0.9x after $85M RCF paydown and $42M prepay repayments . Consensus values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Silver output inflected: 3.7Moz (+17% QoQ, +44% YoY) on higher realized prices ($32.05/oz), aided by Las Chispas partial-quarter and Rochester ramp; adjusted EBITDA climbed to $148.9M (+28% QoQ; >3x YoY) .
  • Free cash flow positive at $17.6M despite ~$130M one-time outflows (taxes, transaction costs, prepay repayments, property taxes); management guides to $75–$100M average quarterly FCF for the remainder of 2025 on higher commodity prices and portfolio mix .
  • Post-quarter catalyst: Board authorized a $75M share repurchase program effective through May 31, 2026, signaling confidence in sustained FCF and balance sheet deleveraging .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Las Chispas integration contributed 714k oz silver and 7,175 oz gold at exceptionally low adjusted CAS of $8.38/Ag-oz and $744/Au-oz; discovery of the high-grade Augusta vein in the Gap zone supports resource growth and margin durability . “We expect to generate average quarterly free cash flow of $75 to $100 million during the remainder of the year…” — CEO Mitchell Krebs .
  • Rochester throughput and crusher optimization progressed; 7.0M tons placed (5.5M through crushing), recoveries tracking model with continued crush-size improvement, keeping full-year guidance on track .
  • Balance sheet strengthened: RCF reduced by 44% to $110M; quarter-end cash $77.6M; net debt $420.7M; LTM adjusted EBITDA $443.7M; leverage ratio to 0.9x .

What Went Wrong

  • Rochester segment FCF was -$21.9M on higher maintenance, capitalized stripping, and royalties from elevated silver prices; adjusted CAS rose to $18.41/Ag-oz and $1,670/Au-oz .
  • Kensington adjusted CAS increased to $1,882/oz with lower grade sequencing and higher site spending; segment FCF remained negative (-$9.6M) though management expects positive FCF mid-year .
  • Heavy Q1 outflows depressed FCF: ~$42M prepay repayments, ~$50M Mexican taxes (including mining EBITDA tax/royalty), ~$15M transaction costs, ~$15M incentive payments, ~$8M Rochester property taxes .

Financial Results

Summary (Actuals; oldest → newest)

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)$213.1 $305.4 $360.1
Net Income ($M)-$29.1 $37.9 $33.4
EPS (GAAP)-$0.08 $0.08 $0.06
Adjusted Net Income ($M)-$19.0 $45.3 $59.9
Adjusted EPS-$0.05 $0.11 $0.11
EBITDA ($M)$27.2 $105.3 $105.3
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$44.3 $116.4 $148.9
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)21% 38% 41%
Cash from Operations ($M)-$15.9 $63.8 $67.6
Capital Expenditures ($M)$42.1 $47.7 $50.0
Free Cash Flow ($M)-$58.0 $16.1 $17.6
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$67.5 $55.1 $77.6
Total Debt ($M)$585.6 $590.1 $498.3
Avg Realized Gold Price ($/oz)$1,864 $2,399 $2,635
Avg Realized Silver Price ($/oz)$23.57 $31.11 $32.05
Gold Produced (oz)80,744 87,149 86,766
Silver Produced (Moz)2.6 3.2 3.7

Actual vs Consensus (Q1 2025)

MetricConsensus (Q1 2025)Actual (Q1 2025)
Revenue ($M)$296.8*$360.1
Primary EPS-$0.01*$0.11 (Adjusted)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Performance (Q1 2025)

SiteMetal Sales ($M)Costs Applicable to Sales ($M)Adjusted CAS Au ($/oz)Adjusted CAS Ag ($/oz)Gold Produced (oz)Silver Produced (koz)Free Cash Flow ($M)
Las Chispas$58.0 $42.8 $744 $8.38 7,175 714 $91.8 (includes $72M bullion/FG monetization)
Palmarejo$95.8 $43.7 $882 $14.37 23,032 1,680 $2.8
Rochester$82.6 $48.5 $1,670 $18.41 13,353 1,284 -$21.9
Kensington$65.2 $42.2 $1,882 —22,715 —-$9.6
Wharf$58.4 $27.0 $1,260 —20,491 51 $8.3

Operational KPIs (Q1 2025)

KPIValue
Gold Ounces Sold89,316
Silver Ounces Sold3,892,153
Adjusted CAS per Au-oz (Consolidated)$1,330
Adjusted CAS per Ag-oz (Consolidated)$14.28
Weighted Avg Shares Outstanding (mm)521.2
Net Debt ($M)$420.7
LTM Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$443.7
Leverage Ratio (Net Debt/LTM Adj. EBITDA)0.9x

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Feb 19, 2025)Current Guidance (May 7, 2025)Change
Total Gold Production (oz)FY 2025380,000 – 440,000 380,000 – 440,000 Maintained
Total Silver Production (oz)FY 202516.7M – 20.25M 16.7M – 20.25M Maintained
Las Chispas Gold (oz)FY 2025 (prorated)42,500 – 52,500 42,500 – 52,500 Maintained
Las Chispas Silver (oz)FY 2025 (prorated)4.25M – 5.25M 4.25M – 5.25M Maintained
Rochester Gold (oz)FY 202560,000 – 75,000 60,000 – 75,000 Maintained
Rochester Silver (oz)FY 20257.0M – 8.3M 7.0M – 8.3M Maintained
Palmarejo Gold/Silver (oz)FY 202595,000 – 105,000 / 5.4M – 6.5M 95,000 – 105,000 / 5.4M – 6.5M Maintained
Kensington Gold (oz)FY 202592,500 – 107,500 92,500 – 107,500 Maintained
Wharf Gold (oz)FY 202590,000 – 100,000 90,000 – 100,000 Maintained
Adjusted CAS Guidance (site-level)FY 2025As disclosed As disclosed Maintained
Capex (Sustaining/Dev) ($M)FY 2025$132–$156 / $55–$69 $132–$156 / $55–$69 Maintained
Exploration (Expensed/Cap.) ($M)FY 2025$67–$77 / $10–$16 $67–$77 / $10–$16 Maintained
G&A ($M)FY 2025$44–$48 $44–$48 Maintained
Quarterly FCF Guide ($M)Remainder of 2025—$75–$100 per quarter (at ~$2,700 Au / $30 Ag baseline pricing; CFO updated to ~$2,900 Au / $32 Ag on call) Introduced/Updated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 MentionsQ4 2024 MentionsQ1 2025 Current PeriodTrend
Rochester optimization (crush size, DTP, recoveries)Crush-size approach to 75% reaching target, cost per ton down, guidance reconfirmed Push to 5/8" campaigns; DTP used to offset downtime; throughput >7–8Mt/quarter 5.5Mt crushed; 1.5Mt DTP; recoveries tracking; key metric: crusher run-time and tons crushed trajectory Improving run-rate; focus on availability and blend; less DTP over year
Capital allocation & deleveragingDebt reduction prioritized; RCF reduction RCF targeted for full repayment by H2’25; net debt/EBITDA headed to 0 $85M RCF repayment; leverage 0.9x; mgmt targeting net debt/EBITDA ≈0 and discussing shareholder returns Accelerating deleveraging; opening door to buybacks/dividends
Las Chispas integration & explorationTransaction pending; integration planning Deal closed; strong balance sheet and bullion monetization to offset Q1 outflows Low-cost production, $92M FCF incl. $72M bullion, Augusta vein discovery; increased infill/expansion drilling Early operational/geo success; margin enhancer
Mexican taxes & agreements—Expect $75–$85M Q1 cash taxes; Franco-Nevada stream mix Q1 cash taxes ~$63M including Mexican mining EBITDA tax; 20-year Ejido agreement expanding exploration/exploitation rights Tax drag in Q1; permitting/land access improved
Silvertip strategyThree-pronged program success; resource/model advancement Plan to progress studies; longer-term development optionality Internal assessment kicking off; 5-year project stage-gate timeline; land package tripled Methodical de-risking; optionality preserved

Management Commentary

  • “We expect to generate average quarterly free cash flow of $75 to $100 million during the remainder of the year, allowing us to rapidly pay down debt while continuing to reinvest in high-return organic growth opportunities…” — CEO Mitchell Krebs .
  • “We look forward to a series of boringly predictable quarters as we embark on the final steps on our journey of achieving our deleveraging goal of net debt to EBITDA of 0.” — CFO Thomas Whelan .
  • “Las Chispas delivered very strong high-grade production at extremely low costs during the portion of the quarter that we owned it… recent emphasis on near-mine drilling resulted in a significant discovery in the gap zone.” — CEO Mitchell Krebs .
  • “Crusher performance continued to improve… recovery rates continue to track to predicted levels… target average crush size trends down toward 7/8-inch.” — COO Michael Routledge .

Q&A Highlights

  • Rochester KPIs: Focus metric is crusher availability and tons crushed; DTP expected to decline over 2025 as crusher uptime improves; recoveries track model as crush size falls .
  • Las Chispas accounting: Stockpile inventory recorded at fair value increases costs through income statement but does not impact free cash flow; deferred tax liabilities from purchase price accounting will unwind over time, affecting reported tax expense .
  • Cash flow “cleanup”: Management confirmed Q1 cleared major prepay and tax items; go-forward cash flows should reflect underlying operations .
  • Capital returns vs. Silvertip: Near-term preference to return capital (e.g., buyback/dividends) before large Silvertip investment, assuming commodity prices remain supportive .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 beat: Revenue $360.1M vs $296.8M consensus; adjusted EPS $0.11 vs -$0.01 consensus; consensus was based on 5 EPS estimates and 1 revenue estimate.*
  • Implication: Street will need to lift out-quarter estimates given realized prices, Las Chispas mix, and Rochester trajectory; management’s $75–$100M quarterly FCF guide supports upward revisions to EBITDA/FCF trajectories .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Consensus Detail (Q1–Q3 2025 snapshot)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean-$0.01*$0.1829*$0.2517*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($M)$296.8*$475.3*$549.5*
EPS – # of Estimates5*7*6*
Revenue – # of Estimates1*2*2*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The quarter materially beat consensus on both revenue and adjusted EPS; the mix-shift to low-cost Las Chispas and higher realized prices drove margin expansion and a 41% adjusted EBITDA margin .
  • Balance sheet inflection underway: leverage 0.9x, RCF cut to $110M; management targets net debt/EBITDA ≈0 by year-end, reducing interest expense and enabling capital returns .
  • Rochester optimization is the operational swing factor; monitor tons crushed through the circuit and crush-size progress as leading indicators of H2 silver/gold production and unit cost declines .
  • Las Chispas provides a high-margin silver growth engine and early exploration success (Augusta vein); expect sustained low CAS and strong FCF contribution .
  • Q1 FCF absorbed ~$130M of one-time outflows; with those cleared, guide implies $75–$100M quarterly FCF for the rest of 2025 at updated pricing, a catalyst for buybacks (now authorized at $75M) and deleveraging .
  • Site-level watchouts: Rochester CAS elevated this quarter; Kensington CAS higher on grade sequencing — both should improve as year progresses and development program winds down .
  • Street estimates likely to move higher given beats and reiterated guidance; continued delivery on Rochester KPIs and Las Chispas integration are key to sustaining re-rating.*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*