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Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record quarter: revenue $480.7M, adjusted EBITDA $243.5M, operating cash flow $207.0M, and free cash flow $146.1M; GAAP diluted EPS $0.11, adjusted EPS $0.20 .
  • Versus estimates: revenue beat by ~$5.35M; adjusted EPS beat by ~$0.017; EBITDA came in below consensus on a GAAP basis; non-GAAP adjustments (acquired inventory fair value and MXN FX on deferred tax) weighed on reported EBITDA and tax expense (see Estimates Context) *.
  • Guidance reaffirmed for 2025 production and CAS across all sites; sustaining capex and G&A guidance increased modestly given stronger balance sheet and non-cash incentive accruals .
  • Balance sheet catalyst: revolver fully repaid ($110M), net leverage down to 0.4x, and $75M buyback program initiated (216.5K shares repurchased in Q2) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Broad-based operational strength: all five mines delivered positive free cash flow, supporting record financial results and four straight quarters of positive FCF .
    • Rochester ramp: crushed tons up 24% q/q (6.7M), production increased (Ag 1.46M oz, Au 14,302 oz), and site FCF improved to $15.1M q/q .
    • Las Chispas contribution: first full quarter under Coeur with metal sales $102.7M and FCF $49.4M; exploration results expanding high-grade zones (Augusta vein traced 320m strike, 150m down-dip with multi-kilo intercepts) .
    • Management quote: “We saw a step change in our financial results… eliminated the remaining balance on our RCF and began buying back shares.” – CEO Mitchell Krebs .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Tax headwind: income and mining tax expense ~$63M; non-cash FX on deferred taxes (due to MXN) increased the tax line by ~$28.3M in Q2, impacting adjusted metrics .
    • Wharf unit costs higher: adjusted CAS per Au at $1,175/oz, while still improving q/q, remains above Q4 levels; grade moderation expected near-term .
    • Kensington capex remained elevated (ending multi-year development); although FCF turned positive ($19.7M), adjusted CAS still $1,713/oz .
    • Analyst concern (Q&A): cash tax modeling and NOL usage cadence in the U.S. and Mexico may create quarterly lumpiness in FCF .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$305.4 $360.1 $480.7
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.08 $0.06 $0.11
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.11 $0.11 $0.20
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$104.6 $105.3 $203.0
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$116.4 $148.9 $243.5
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)38% 41% 51%
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$63.8 $67.6 $207.0
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$16.1 $17.6 $146.1

Segment performance – production, unit costs, and sales (trend)

SiteMetal Sales ($M) – Q1Metal Sales ($M) – Q2Gold Produced (oz) – Q1Gold Produced (oz) – Q2Silver Produced (000 oz) – Q1Silver Produced (000 oz) – Q2Adj. CAS Au ($/oz) – Q1Adj. CAS Au ($/oz) – Q2Adj. CAS Ag ($/oz) – Q1Adj. CAS Ag ($/oz) – Q2
Las Chispas (MX)$58.0 $102.7 7,175 16,271 714 1,489 $744 $894 $8.38 $8.94
Palmarejo (MX)$95.8 $114.1 23,032 27,272 1,680 1,741 $882 $888 $14.37 $14.39
Rochester (NV)$82.6 $95.0 13,353 14,302 1,284 1,456 $1,670 $1,675 $18.41 $16.83
Kensington (AK)$65.2 $89.8 22,715 26,555 ——$1,882 $1,713 ——
Wharf (SD)$58.4 $79.1 20,491 24,087 51 36 $1,260 $1,175 ——

Site cash flow and FCF

SiteOperating CF ($M) – Q1Operating CF ($M) – Q2Free CF ($M) – Q1Free CF ($M) – Q2
Las Chispas$97.1 $58.6 $91.8 $49.4
Palmarejo$8.7 $47.9 $2.8 $42.3
Rochester$(7.0) $39.6 $(21.9) $15.1
Kensington$5.9 $36.0 $(9.6) $19.7
Wharf$15.7 $41.4 $8.3 $37.8

KPIs

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Avg Realized Gold Price ($/oz)$2,399 $2,635 $3,021
Avg Realized Silver Price ($/oz)$31.11 $32.05 $33.72
Gold Ounces Produced (oz)87,149 86,766 108,487
Silver Ounces Produced (MM oz)3.2 3.7 4.7
Adjusted CAS per AuOz ($/oz)$1,192 $1,330 $1,260
Adjusted CAS per AgOz ($/oz)$16.93 $14.28 $13.41
Net Debt ($M)$535.0 $420.7 $269.1
Leverage Ratio (LTM Adj. EBITDA)1.6x 0.9x 0.4x

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Capital Expenditures, Sustaining ($M)FY 2025$132–$156 $142–$156 Raised (lower bound)
G&A Expenses ($M)FY 2025$44–$48 $48–$52 Raised
Total Gold Production (oz)FY 2025380,000–440,000 380,000–440,000 Maintained
Total Silver Production (koz)FY 202516,700–20,250 16,700–20,250 Maintained
Las Chispas Gold (oz)FY 2025 (10.5 mos)42,500–52,500 42,500–52,500 Maintained
Las Chispas Silver (koz)FY 2025 (10.5 mos)4,250–5,250 4,250–5,250 Maintained
Palmarejo Gold (oz)FY 202595,000–105,000 95,000–105,000 Maintained
Palmarejo Silver (koz)FY 20255,400–6,500 5,400–6,500 Maintained
Rochester Gold (oz)FY 202560,000–75,000 60,000–75,000 Maintained
Rochester Silver (koz)FY 20257,000–8,300 7,000–8,300 Maintained
Kensington Gold (oz)FY 202592,500–107,500 92,500–107,500 Maintained
Wharf Gold (oz)FY 202590,000–100,000 90,000–100,000 Maintained
CAS Guidance (all sites)FY 2025As disclosed per site Reaffirmed per site Maintained

Note: Guidance assumes $2,700/oz gold, $30/oz silver, CAD 1.425, MXN 20.50; excludes hedges .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2: Q4’24; Q-1: Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
Capital returns (buyback)Not present in Q4’24; acquisition close noted $75M program initiated; 216.5K shares repurchased; plan to “step up” activity post blackout Increasing
Balance sheet deleveragingNet debt/EBITDA 1.6x (YE’24) Revolver extinguished; leverage 0.4x; potential net cash by YE Improving
Rochester ramp/stabilityExceeded ton placement in Q4; continued ramp expected Crushed tons up 24% q/q; production up; modifications to crusher corridor Positive execution
Las Chispas integration/explorationQ1: first 1.5 mos; Augusta vein discovery; program refocused near mine First full quarter; multi-kilo intercepts; reoriented drill program advancing Expanding
Taxes/NOLsYE’24 cash tax outlook for Q1’25; NOLs present ~$63M tax expense; MXN FX added ~$28.3M; NOL usage continues; cash tax lumpiness Watch FX/tax
Tariffs/macroNot highlightedNo meaningful tariff impact to date; cost controls eased inflation pressures Neutral

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We expect even higher gold and silver production levels… over $800 million of full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA and over $400 million of full-year 2025 free cash flow.” .
  • CFO: “We have fully repaid the $110,000,000 balance… total debt now below $400,000,000… initiated our $75,000,000 buyback program.” .
  • COO: “Positive trends in each phase of Rochester sustained our momentum… anticipate more progress in driving crushed tons in the second half.” .
  • Exploration SVP: “Augusta vein continues to grow with multi‑kilo intercepts… expanding Las Chispas Block and Gap Zone.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Silvertip timeline: Initial assessment underway; potential to modestly accelerate but still “a few more years” to go/no-go; prioritizing robust stage gates and critical minerals permitting .
  • Growth drivers: Brownfield exploration across all assets and continued optimization at Rochester; consider accelerating exploration spend to capture organic opportunities .
  • Taxes/NOLs: U.S. cash taxes near zero given NOLs; Mexico cash taxes quarterly with annual true-ups; expect lumpiness including EBITDA tax; modeling support offered .
  • Buyback execution: Mix of Rule 10b5‑1 (during blackout) and discretionary purchases; intent to utilize program more actively post Q2 blackout .
  • Las Chispas capacity: Plant capacity provides upside; stockpile helps flexibility; focus on maintaining ~6-year mine life via near-mine drilling and conversion .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 vs consensus (S&P Global):
    • Revenue: $475.3M estimate vs $480.65M actual → bold beat by ~$5.35M* [values retrieved from S&P Global].
    • Primary EPS (adjusted/normalized): $0.1829 estimate vs $0.20 actual → bold beat by ~$0.017* [values retrieved from S&P Global].
    • EBITDA (GAAP): $230.37M estimate vs $209.25M actual → bold miss by ~$21.1M* [values retrieved from S&P Global].
    • Non-GAAP impacts: acquired inventory fair value from Las Chispas increased CAS as stockpile is monetized, and deferred tax FX (~$28.3M) affected EPS; adjusted EBITDA was $243.5M despite GAAP EBITDA optics .
MetricConsensus Estimate (Q2’25)Actual (Q2’25)Surprise
Revenue ($M)475.3*480.7*+5.35*
Primary EPS ($)0.1829*0.20*+0.0171*
EBITDA ($M)230.37*209.25*-21.12*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

  • Forward context (S&P Global): Q3’25 consensus revenue $549.47M, EPS $0.252; Q4’25 revenue $607.30M, EPS $0.298* [values retrieved from S&P Global]. Execution at Rochester and Las Chispas plus higher realized prices support potential estimate revisions to FCF and margins if performance sustains .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Free cash flow inflection is durable: four straight FCF-positive quarters; H2’25 FCF outlook of $250–$300M per CFO under updated pricing assumptions is a near-term driver .
  • Capital returns uplift: buyback program ($75M) underway; expect increased activity post blackout, supported by deleveraging and rising cash .
  • Operational momentum: Rochester throughput and recoveries improving; Las Chispas delivering high-grade ounces at low unit costs; both underpin margin expansion .
  • Non-GAAP adjustments matter: inventory fair value and MXN FX on deferred taxes created noise; normalized earnings power better reflected in adjusted metrics (Adj. EBITDA 51% margin) .
  • Guidance intact: production and CAS reaffirmed across assets; modest raises to sustaining capex and G&A do not alter the record-year thesis .
  • Trading implications: near-term strength likely tied to cash generation, debt paydown, and buyback cadence; monitor MXN FX and Rochester crusher corridor modifications as key execution variables .
  • Medium-term thesis: organic growth via brownfield exploration (Palmarejo, Las Chispas, Kensington, Wharf) and continued Rochester optimization; Silvertip optionality beyond the next few years .