CM
Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record quarter: revenue $554.6M, GAAP EPS $0.41, adjusted EPS $0.23, adjusted EBITDA $299.1M, free cash flow $188.7M; cash more than doubled to $266M; net leverage fell to 0.1x .
- Versus estimates (S&P Global): revenue was above consensus ($554.6M vs $549.5M*), while primary EPS came in below consensus ($0.23 vs $0.252*); target price consensus stood at $20.86* [GetEstimates]*.
- Guidance changes: raised production and lowered cost guidance at Las Chispas, Palmarejo, Kensington, and Wharf; Rochester production reduced and cost guidance raised; added effective tax rate 27–33% and cash taxes $165–$195M .
- Call tone: management reiterated expectation for another record Q4 and net cash by year-end; highlighted strong operational execution, stable input costs, and successful Las Chispas integration .
- Post-quarter catalyst: announced acquisition of New Gold to create a larger, all–North American senior precious metals producer—expected 2026 EBITDA ~$3B and FCF ~$2B for combined company .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record consolidated financials driven by higher realized gold ($3,148/oz) and silver ($38.93/oz) prices and solid cost control; adjusted EBITDA margin reached 54% .
- Las Chispas delivered strong free cash flow ($66.1M) and higher production (1.6Moz Ag; 16,540oz Au); 2025 production guidance raised for both metals .
- Kensington and Wharf posted sequential production and cost improvements, boosting FCF ($30.8M and $54.0M, respectively); guidance raised and cost ranges narrowed/lowered .
- “We look forward to delivering another record quarter…expected to push full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to over $1 billion, [and] free cash flow to over $550 million” — CEO Mitchell Krebs .
What Went Wrong
- Rochester guidance cut due to crusher downtime (Q3 upgrades and conveyor wear issues) and timing of placed ounces; 2025 CAS ranges increased for both silver and gold .
- Adjusted CAS per silver rose to $14.95/oz (from $13.41 in Q2) and adjusted CAS per gold $1,215/oz (from $1,260 in Q2), reflecting mix and stockpile processing; some royalty and currency pressures noted .
- G&A guidance increased to $50–$55M reflecting non-cash incentive comp; 2025 effective tax rate introduced at 27–33% and cash taxes $165–$195M, implying higher normalized tax burden ahead .
Financial Results
Segment operating snapshot
Key KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Coeur delivered another quarter of record financial results… Las Chispas experienced a particularly strong quarter…” — Mitchell Krebs, Chairman & CEO .
- “Free cash flow party continued at a pace of roughly $2 million per day during Q3… net debt below $100 million… prepared to declare victory on achieving… net debt to EBITDA of nil during Q4 2025” — Thomas Whelan, CFO .
- On Rochester: “Extended downtime early in the third quarter… modifications… proven to be successful… trend is positive… we’ll just continue to tweak” — Mick Routledge, COO .
- Taxes: “For years we’ve really had basically a zero effective tax rate… that will change starting next year… federal 21% + ~3% states… potential to actually pay U.S. income tax in 2026” — CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- Rochester capacity path: Management detailed July upgrades (primary/secondary split and tertiary auto-sampler) and addressing conveyor belt wear in November to reduce downtime; expect momentum in Q4 and sustain into 2026 .
- Production outlook: Annualized Rochester target aligns with ~30Mt crushing to deliver 7–8Moz Ag and ~70koz Au in 2026, with incremental Q4 progress .
- Tax trajectory: Post-DTA recognition, normalized U.S. effective tax rate discussed at ~24% (federal+state), with potential cash taxes beginning 2026 as NOLs are utilized .
- Unit costs and royalties: Input costs largely flat; higher royalties (including Rochester) and strong peso were managed, with three mines lowering CAS guidance .
- Grade/throughput decisions: Palmarejo ran lower-grade material with better recoveries; Las Chispas processed stockpiles, aiding throughput and FCF .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Interpretation: Revenue above consensus; EPS below consensus, suggesting potential estimate recalibration around tax normalization and margin mix. Refer to adjusted EBITDA for operating performance vs consensus EBITDA [GetEstimates]*.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Cohort of record metrics: sustained margin expansion on higher realized prices and disciplined costs; adjusted EBITDA margin 54% and FCF $188.7M underscore operating leverage .
- Guidance mix positive ex-Rochester: raised output and lowered CAS at four operations; Rochester reset reflects timing/downtime but sequential improvement evident .
- Balance sheet inflection: cash up to $266M; leverage down to 0.1x; management targets net cash by year-end, enabling buybacks and growth investments .
- Tax normalization: one-time $216M valuation allowance release boosts GAAP; forward effective tax rate 27–33% and cash taxes guide to structurally higher normalized tax outflows .
- Watch Q4 cadence: management signaled another record quarter; monitor realized prices, Rochester uptime, and Las Chispas integration benefits into year-end .
- Post-quarter M&A: New Gold deal, if completed, could materially enhance scale, margins, and FCF; diligence timeline and approvals extend into 1H26 .
- Trading implications: near-term momentum tied to metals price beta and delivery vs raised guidance; medium-term thesis strengthened by FCF inflection, balance sheet de-risking, and portfolio quality uplift .