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Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record quarter: revenue $554.6M, GAAP EPS $0.41, adjusted EPS $0.23, adjusted EBITDA $299.1M, free cash flow $188.7M; cash more than doubled to $266M; net leverage fell to 0.1x .
  • Versus estimates (S&P Global): revenue was above consensus ($554.6M vs $549.5M*), while primary EPS came in below consensus ($0.23 vs $0.252*); target price consensus stood at $20.86* [GetEstimates]*.
  • Guidance changes: raised production and lowered cost guidance at Las Chispas, Palmarejo, Kensington, and Wharf; Rochester production reduced and cost guidance raised; added effective tax rate 27–33% and cash taxes $165–$195M .
  • Call tone: management reiterated expectation for another record Q4 and net cash by year-end; highlighted strong operational execution, stable input costs, and successful Las Chispas integration .
  • Post-quarter catalyst: announced acquisition of New Gold to create a larger, all–North American senior precious metals producer—expected 2026 EBITDA ~$3B and FCF ~$2B for combined company .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record consolidated financials driven by higher realized gold ($3,148/oz) and silver ($38.93/oz) prices and solid cost control; adjusted EBITDA margin reached 54% .
  • Las Chispas delivered strong free cash flow ($66.1M) and higher production (1.6Moz Ag; 16,540oz Au); 2025 production guidance raised for both metals .
  • Kensington and Wharf posted sequential production and cost improvements, boosting FCF ($30.8M and $54.0M, respectively); guidance raised and cost ranges narrowed/lowered .
  • “We look forward to delivering another record quarter…expected to push full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to over $1 billion, [and] free cash flow to over $550 million” — CEO Mitchell Krebs .

What Went Wrong

  • Rochester guidance cut due to crusher downtime (Q3 upgrades and conveyor wear issues) and timing of placed ounces; 2025 CAS ranges increased for both silver and gold .
  • Adjusted CAS per silver rose to $14.95/oz (from $13.41 in Q2) and adjusted CAS per gold $1,215/oz (from $1,260 in Q2), reflecting mix and stockpile processing; some royalty and currency pressures noted .
  • G&A guidance increased to $50–$55M reflecting non-cash incentive comp; 2025 effective tax rate introduced at 27–33% and cash taxes $165–$195M, implying higher normalized tax burden ahead .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)360.1 480.7 554.6
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)33.4 70.7 266.8
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)0.06 0.11 0.41
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)59.9 127.4 147.3
Adjusted EPS ($USD)0.11 0.20 0.23
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)148.9 243.5 299.1
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)41% 51% 54%
Cash From Operations ($USD Millions)67.6 207.0 237.7
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)50.0 60.8 49.0
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)17.6 146.2 188.7

Segment operating snapshot

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
Las Chispas – Metal Sales ($USD Millions)102.7 126.1
Las Chispas – Adj CAS Au ($/oz)894 934
Las Chispas – Adj CAS Ag ($/oz)8.94 10.75
Las Chispas – Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)49.4 66.1
Palmarejo – Metal Sales ($USD Millions)114.1 121.2
Palmarejo – Adj CAS Au ($/oz)888 887
Palmarejo – Adj CAS Ag ($/oz)14.39 16.44
Palmarejo – Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)42.3 46.9
Rochester – Metal Sales ($USD Millions)95.0 112.5
Rochester – Adj CAS Ag ($/oz)16.83 17.73
Rochester – Adj CAS Au ($/oz)1,675 1,585
Rochester – Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)15.1 29.6
Kensington – Metal Sales ($USD Millions)89.8 98.9
Kensington – Adj CAS Au ($/oz)1,713 1,659
Kensington – Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)19.7 30.8
Wharf – Metal Sales ($USD Millions)79.1 95.9
Wharf – Adj CAS Au ($/oz)1,175 1,079
Wharf – Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)37.8 54.0

Key KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Gold Ounces Produced (koz)86.8 108.5 111.4
Silver Ounces Produced (Moz)3.7 4.7 4.8
Avg Realized Gold Price ($/oz)2,635 3,021 3,148
Avg Realized Silver Price ($/oz)32.05 33.72 38.93
Adjusted CAS per AuOz ($/oz)1,330 1,260 1,215
Adjusted CAS per AgOz ($/oz)14.28 13.41 14.95
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)77.6 111.6 266.3
Total Debt ($USD Millions)498.3 380.7 363.5
Leverage Ratio (Net Debt / LTM Adj EBITDA)0.9 0.4 0.1

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Las Chispas Gold Production (oz)FY202542,500–52,500 50,000–58,000 Raised
Las Chispas Silver Production (oz)FY20254.25–5.25M 5.0–5.5M Raised
Las Chispas Adj CAS Au ($/oz)FY2025850–950 850–950 Maintained
Las Chispas Adj CAS Ag ($/oz)FY20259.25–10.25 9.25–10.25 Maintained
Palmarejo Gold Production (oz)FY202595,000–105,000 96,000–106,000 Raised
Palmarejo Silver Production (oz)FY20255.4–6.5M 6.0–6.8M Raised
Palmarejo Adj CAS Au ($/oz)FY2025950–1,150 890–960 Lowered
Palmarejo Adj CAS Ag ($/oz)FY202517.00–18.00 15.00–16.00 Lowered
Rochester Silver Production (oz)FY20257.0–8.3M 6.0–6.7M Lowered
Rochester Gold Production (oz)FY202560,000–75,000 55,000–62,500 Lowered
Rochester Adj CAS Ag ($/oz)FY202514.50–16.50 17.00–18.50 Raised
Rochester Adj CAS Au ($/oz)FY20251,250–1,450 1,550–1,650 Raised
Kensington Gold Production (oz)FY202592,500–107,500 98,500–108,500 Raised
Kensington Adj CAS Au ($/oz)FY20251,700–1,900 1,700–1,800 Lowered (narrowed)
Wharf Gold Production (oz)FY202590,000–100,000 93,000–103,000 Raised
Wharf Silver Production (oz)FY202550k–200k 100k–150k Raised (narrowed)
Wharf Adj CAS Au ($/oz)FY20251,250–1,350 1,125–1,225 Lowered
G&A ($USD Millions)FY202548–52 50–55 Raised
Effective Tax Rate (%)FY202527%–33% New
Cash Taxes ($USD Millions)FY2025165–195 New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Rochester ramp/steady stateQ1: ramp progressing, legacy pad removal; Q2: crushed tons +24% QoQ July downtime for crusher modifications; minor conveyor belt wear; PSD improved (P80 ~0.84"); sequential production/FCF growth Improving
Cost environment & royaltiesGeneral cost controls; inflation managed Inputs broadly flat; higher royalties and strong peso partly offset elsewhere Stable with manageable pressures
Tax normalizationQ1/Q2 cash taxes paid; FX effects on deferred taxes Recognized U.S. DTA; one-time $216M benefit; guided normalized U.S. tax rate ~24% (federal+state) from 2026 context Greater clarity; normalized higher tax burden
Exploration momentumAugusta discovery; expansion at Palmarejo targets (Hidalgo, Independencia Sur) High-grade Las Chispas intercepts; Kensington high-grade/continuity; programs ramped Expanding
Capital allocationInitiated $75M buyback in Q2 ~10% of program completed; debt reduction continues Shareholder-friendly
Tariffs/supply chainNot highlighted priorNo tariff pressure noted Benign
Strategic actions (M&A)None in Q1/Q2Announced New Gold acquisition post-Q3; larger FCF profile envisioned Transformational (pending close)

Management Commentary

  • “Coeur delivered another quarter of record financial results… Las Chispas experienced a particularly strong quarter…” — Mitchell Krebs, Chairman & CEO .
  • “Free cash flow party continued at a pace of roughly $2 million per day during Q3… net debt below $100 million… prepared to declare victory on achieving… net debt to EBITDA of nil during Q4 2025” — Thomas Whelan, CFO .
  • On Rochester: “Extended downtime early in the third quarter… modifications… proven to be successful… trend is positive… we’ll just continue to tweak” — Mick Routledge, COO .
  • Taxes: “For years we’ve really had basically a zero effective tax rate… that will change starting next year… federal 21% + ~3% states… potential to actually pay U.S. income tax in 2026” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Rochester capacity path: Management detailed July upgrades (primary/secondary split and tertiary auto-sampler) and addressing conveyor belt wear in November to reduce downtime; expect momentum in Q4 and sustain into 2026 .
  • Production outlook: Annualized Rochester target aligns with ~30Mt crushing to deliver 7–8Moz Ag and ~70koz Au in 2026, with incremental Q4 progress .
  • Tax trajectory: Post-DTA recognition, normalized U.S. effective tax rate discussed at ~24% (federal+state), with potential cash taxes beginning 2026 as NOLs are utilized .
  • Unit costs and royalties: Input costs largely flat; higher royalties (including Rochester) and strong peso were managed, with three mines lowering CAS guidance .
  • Grade/throughput decisions: Palmarejo ran lower-grade material with better recoveries; Las Chispas processed stockpiles, aiding throughput and FCF .

Estimates Context

MetricQ3 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 ActualQ4 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD)549.47M*554.57M 607.30M*
Primary EPS ($USD)0.252*0.23 0.2975*
EBITDA ($USD)311.21M*249.15M (EBITDA); 299.06M (Adj EBITDA)
Target Price ($USD)20.86*20.86*20.86*
# of Revenue Estimates2*1*
# of EPS Estimates6*4*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Interpretation: Revenue above consensus; EPS below consensus, suggesting potential estimate recalibration around tax normalization and margin mix. Refer to adjusted EBITDA for operating performance vs consensus EBITDA [GetEstimates]*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Cohort of record metrics: sustained margin expansion on higher realized prices and disciplined costs; adjusted EBITDA margin 54% and FCF $188.7M underscore operating leverage .
  • Guidance mix positive ex-Rochester: raised output and lowered CAS at four operations; Rochester reset reflects timing/downtime but sequential improvement evident .
  • Balance sheet inflection: cash up to $266M; leverage down to 0.1x; management targets net cash by year-end, enabling buybacks and growth investments .
  • Tax normalization: one-time $216M valuation allowance release boosts GAAP; forward effective tax rate 27–33% and cash taxes guide to structurally higher normalized tax outflows .
  • Watch Q4 cadence: management signaled another record quarter; monitor realized prices, Rochester uptime, and Las Chispas integration benefits into year-end .
  • Post-quarter M&A: New Gold deal, if completed, could materially enhance scale, margins, and FCF; diligence timeline and approvals extend into 1H26 .
  • Trading implications: near-term momentum tied to metals price beta and delivery vs raised guidance; medium-term thesis strengthened by FCF inflection, balance sheet de-risking, and portfolio quality uplift .