Codere Online Luxembourg - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Transcript

Speaker 3

Thank you for standing by. My name is Angela and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Codere Online second quarter 2025 results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press STAR followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press STAR one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Guillermo Lancha, Head of Investor Relations.

Speaker 0

Thanks, operator, and welcome everyone to Codere Online's earnings call for the second quarter of 2025. Today you will hear from our CEO Aviv Sher and CFO Oscar Iglesias. Our Executive Vice Chairman Moshe Edree will also join us in the Q&A section. Please note that while our financial accounts are prepared under IFRS accounting standards, the figures reflected in today's presentation are preliminary and unaudited and include certain non-IFRS financial metrics such as net gaming revenue and adjusted EBITDA, for which you can find reconciliations in the appendix of the presentation. In addition to certain figures presented on a constant currency basis, these measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for our IFRS results. Let me also remind you that all monetary figures will be in euros unless expressed otherwise.

During this call we will make forward-looking statements including those related to our net gaming revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook, which are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements. While these forward-looking statements reflect our current expectations, which we believe are reasonable, we undertake no obligation to revise any statement to reflect changes that occur after this call. Finally, please note that a replay and transcript of this call will be available on our website at codereonline.com, where you can also sign up for our investor email alerts. With that, I will go ahead and pass the call on to Aviv.

Speaker 1

Thanks Guillermo and thanks to everyone for joining us today. Before jumping into operating results for Q2 and for the benefit of those of you that may be new to the company, just wanted to confirm that we have regained compliance with all applicable NASDAQ listing requirements following the filing of our 2023 annual report on May 1 and 2024 annual report on June 2. This was formally confirmed in a letter we received from NASDAQ on June 5 and thanks to all the hard work by Codere Online and Melon Bailey teams, finally puts an end to the uncertainty around our continuity as a publicly traded company. As always, we also appreciate the patience and support that all of you have shown us throughout this process.

Moving now to the highlights of the second quarter of 2025, on page 8 we delivered $55 million in net gaming revenue, which was roughly flat versus the prior year period as a result of the devaluation in Mexican pesos following the federal election in June of last year. In constant currency terms, net gaming revenue would have been nearly $61 million in the second quarter, 12% above the prior year period. In terms of product mix, the contribution from our casino segment was 61% of our total net gaming revenue in the second quarter, reflecting a stabilization of our overall mix at around 60% casino following a trend of increasing contribution from that segment in recent years.

Net gaming revenue in the quarter was the result of a 7% increase in the average monthly active customers, partially offset by a 5% decrease in average monthly spend per active customer, again primarily due to the weaker Mexican peso. On the acquisition front, we had a strong quarter with 78,000 first-time depositors, 7% above those acquired in the prior year period. This increase resulted in an average CPA in the quarter of €218, a small sequential uptick, but largely in line with the average CPA in the prior 12-month period. Finally, a quick update on our activity under the share buyback plan. Through yesterday, we have repurchased around 106,000 shares under the plan for total investments of approximately $700,000. With this, I will now turn the call over to Oscar to cover the financial highlights of the quarter. Thanks Aviv.

Speaker 4

Turning now to the financial performance for the quarter on page 10, consolidated net gaming revenue was $55 million, up slightly versus the prior year period, notwithstanding the significant headwinds that we had this year that were either not a factor or less of a factor last year. These headwinds include a significant devaluation of the Mexican peso, the introduction of value-added tax on player deposits in Colombia, and the reintroduction of the welcome bonuses in Spain throughout the second quarter of 2024, which resulted in a more competitive landscape and lower level of spend from both new and existing customers. In regards to our other segment, which reflects our business in Colombia, Panama, and the city of Buenos Aires, net gaming revenue in Colombia was $1.6 million lower in the second quarter, which was partially offset by $0.8 million in higher net gaming revenue in Panama.

This $0.8 million equates to a doubling of net gaming revenue in that market versus the prior year period and reflects certain product improvements deployed earlier this year. Adjusted EBITDA, meanwhile, was positive $2.3 million in the second quarter and included a contribution of $6.3 million from our Spanish business, 5% above the prior year. Mexico, on the other hand, was slightly negative due to the increased marketing investment leading up to and around the Club World Cup, in particular with respect to our sponsorship of C.F. Monterrey, which finished second in the group in a tournament which produced its share of surprises and a higher level of activity for the company in what is historically a seasonally weaker period. Please note that adjusted EBITDA excludes $1.1 million in audit related fees in excess of amounts otherwise provisioned for in our 2024 financial accounts.

While we have historically excluded few items from our reported adjusted EBITDA, we believe that both the amount and the non-recurring nature of these audit related fees warrant exclusion for the purpose of assessing our performance in the quarter and comparing said performance to prior periods. Looking now at our P&L on page 11, adjusted EBITDA was $1 million above that of the second quarter of 2024, primarily on the back of successful overall cost contention throughout the business. Looking ahead, we are expecting marketing spend in the back half of the year to be less than in the front half, which together with our positive outlook for net gaming revenue we expect will translate into a higher level of EBITDA generation in the back half of the year.

This positive outlook is primarily due to the continued strong returns that we are seeing from both existing and new players in Mexico, combined with a better than originally expected evolution for the Mexican peso going into year end. Turning now to the consolidated figures on page 12, the 1% increase in net gaming revenue reflects a 7% increase in active customers primarily in Mexico, offset by a lower spend per active. On a constant currency basis, net gaming revenue would have grown 12% instead of this reported 1%. As Aviv mentioned, FTDs grew 7% to 78,000 in the quarter and were mostly driven by Mexico where we acquired a substantially higher amount of FTDs than in the prior year quarter as we continue to prioritize this market and work to build upon our already meaningful portfolio of customers.

Turning to Spain, net gaming revenue in the second quarter was flat at €22 million, reflecting a slightly higher spend per active which was offset by a 3% decline in the number of active customers as we have been more selective at least versus prior periods in our promotional activity in Spain. Given the more competitive landscape that we continue to face in Mexico, net gaming revenue was €29 million in the second quarter, 3% above the prior year period. The Mexican peso devalued by more than 19% in the second quarter of 2025, resulting in a €5.7 million negative impact to net gaming revenue, the highest impact in any quarter since the federal elections in Mexico in June 2024. On a constant currency basis, our net gaming revenue would have grown 23%, so the underlying growth trend in this market is still quite strong.

As mentioned before, we had a significant increase in average monthly active customers to 85,000, 36% above Q2 2024, albeit with lower player values but also lower upfront acquisition costs. Mexico remains our priority from a marketing investment standpoint and we expect that the scale we're building now will drive this business leading up to and throughout the 2026 World Cup which will be co-hosted by Mexico. On page 15 we are including again the evolution of the Mexican peso against the euro, which has improved since the March peak. Looking ahead, the exchange rate headwind will continue somewhat into the third quarter, but to a much lesser extent than in prior quarters as we begin to lap the significant post-election devaluation of the peso.

Turning to the balance sheet on page 16, as of June 30th we had €45 million of total cash on the balance sheet, of which approximately €41 million was available. In terms of our net working capital position, we ended the quarter with negative €24 million or around 11% of our LTM net gaming revenue, which we believe is a normalized level of working capital. Looking at our cash flow on page 17, in the first half of 2025 we generated €7.5 million of available cash, partially offset by a €2.1 million negative FX impact on ending cash balances due to the devaluation of both the Mexican peso and the U.S. dollar on cash balances we hold in both currencies, resulting in a total period cash flow generation of over €5 million.

In regards to our outlook for 2025 on page 19, we continue to expect net gaming revenue of between €220 million and €230 million and adjusted EBITDA in the range of €10 million to €15 million and otherwise remain confident in our ability to continue executing our operating and investment plan throughout the second half of this year and beyond. That's all from my end. I will now hand it back over to Aviv for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Oscar. Before we move to Q&A, I want to thank again all Codere Online employees for the contribution in the recent months. Thanks also to the investors and analysts on this call for your support and interest. With that said, we'll turn it back to the operator to open up the call to Q&A.

Speaker 3

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press Star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press Star one again. If you are called upon to ask your question and are listening by a loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. Your first question comes from the line of Jeffrey Stantial with Stifel.

Your line is now open. Hey, good morning Oscar, Aviv. Thanks for taking our questions. Maybe just starting off on performance during the quarter in Spain, now that the reintroduction of welcome bonuses is anniversary, I'm curious if you're seeing any improvement in the overall competitive environment or if it's still relatively challenging. In terms of sports seasonality, how much of a drag was the Euros comp this quarter? I guess net of contribution from Club World Cup, and should we expect growth in the back half to accelerate just once this sports seasonality comp has anniversary'd out. Yeah.

Speaker 4

Do you want to start on the competitive landscape, Spain performance?

Speaker 1

Yes.

So.

You are correct about the regulation environment in Spain. We don't see it changing in the near future. It's still a hard competitive landscape. Because of that, our competitors, let's say, are spending money to bring the players onto their platforms and offering generous welcome bonus. I think it stabilized at least for us. We manage, I think, to find the formula in order to keep on track with our goals and KPIs, so we feel more secure and we are looking forward for any regulation changes. At least for now we don't foresee it changing in the near time, in the near months at least, and we keep an eye on that. Regarding the question about the Euros, I think for the Spanish part in Spain it was less strong than what we thought, although Real Madrid advanced quite far, but the interest was not that big.

We had in Wimbledon more traction because of Alcaraz, and maybe together Alcaraz and the Club World Cup we had some interest over the summer, but I think we still see seasonality, so we are expecting a strong season start in this quarter.

Speaker 4

Having the Club World Cup definitely was helpful to bridge this period of this slow period from a sports betting standpoint, and I think it also helped having one of the clubs that we, the sponsor, C.F. Monterrey, were a shirt sponsor and they did quite well in the tournament. They also have an iconic Real Madrid player, Sergio Ramos, playing with them. That helped keep, let's say, a higher level of engagement than we were expecting. As Aviv said, with the time zone difference and all the rest, it was not a significant event necessarily. Even though there were some surprises, there were some individual markets and events or matches that were beneficial to us from a trading standpoint.

Great, that's helpful. Thank you for that. Shifting gears and turning over to the Mexico business, Oscar, or whoever wants to take this. I just wanted to spend a minute on some of the recent marketing initiatives that you've called out targeting, call it lower LTV players that also had a lower overall CAC. Can you just add a bit of color in terms of where, what channels and how these users are being sourced? Strategically, I guess is the way to think about this as it's enabled by the peso devaluation. Is this more of a response to the competitive environment or is this just reflective of constant iteration in UA strategy in a market that's still growing quite rapidly? Any color to frame this direction in UA strategy would be great. Thanks.

I'll turn it over to Aviv. It definitely wasn't in response to any strategy to mitigate the weakness in the Mexican fist. I think it's more the latter, the UA strategy that we had and the experimentation and trial and error that is always part of both the acquisition and promotional environments in our business and in our sector. I'll kick it over to Aviv specifically on what he wants to discuss with respect to the specific strategy that we were employing.

Speaker 1

Yes, exactly, exactly. Oscar is absolutely right. As you know, we are testing all kinds of channels and we tested one of the channels, mobile app. We tested it for three months. There is a huge, let's call it huge amount of traffic that we can source. We tried to buy, we thought that we are buying successfully, but when evaluating this kind of traffic we saw that it's low LTV, low CPA, not exactly fitting with our strategy. We optimized it and we are back on track. We see it here in the results. We see it a little bit skewed because of that. Overall, I'm happy that we were able to analyze it on time and to find this source and eventually to rule it out. We keep trying all kinds of UI strategies as you said, and we will keep on trying.

This is, I think, in the operational part, the most important part of our job.

Great, that's helpful. Thank you both. If I could just squeeze in one more here. Oscar, you talked about profitability improvement in the back half with marketing down relative to the front half. Is this mostly attributable to the River Plate sponsorship rolling off? Are you moderating marketing spend elsewhere? How much flexibility or how much should we think about being embedded in guidance for, call it, opportunistic investment heading into the Club World Cup next year? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I think it's a number of factors, obviously with respect to Argentina specifically, the rolling off of the sponsorship there in the early part of the year has helped us mitigate.

Speaker 1

The ebitda.

Speaker 4

What otherwise would be an expectation of more of a small EBITDA loss in that market. We're trying to get that market to break even or better. Yes, that helps. In Colombia, the revenue impact on the back of the tax, on the value-added tax on deposits, is having a significant impact in terms of net gaming revenue. It's a small business for us, it's not overly material for us. We are and expect to continue to be able to mitigate at the EBITDA level going forward. That'll be lesser of an impact for us in our overall ability to meet guidance for the full year period or back half performance and beyond that.

I think it's again pointing to the Mexican business, the unit economics notwithstanding the comments that Aviv just made, the portfolio and the existing customer base is performing well, they're strong underlying unit economics, continuation of that longer run running trend that we have in terms of improving return profile from that portfolio of customers. We're quite optimistic. Even in the last, on the back of some of the news out of the U.S. and elsewhere, the Mexican peso, I think our expectations, and we'll see right from one week to the next, this can change. The Mexican peso seems to be strengthening and definitely more than what we were expecting and what our current expectations going into year end are, definitely better than where we were a few months back.

All of these things point to, let's say, optimism that back half EBITDA generation and performance from this business is going to be strong.

Great. Very helpful. Thank you both. I'll pass it on.

Great, thanks. Jeff.

Speaker 3

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Kupinski with Noble. Your line is now open.

Thank you for taking the questions. Appreciate that. I'm constantly surprised by the level of growth that you continue to deliver in Mexico, particularly on active players. I want to follow up on the previous caller's question. Is there something unique about that market in particular? I was just wondering in terms of eventually, as you look to the other Latin American markets, as you indicated, the prospect to step on the accelerator in some of those other countries. I was just wondering if the playbook that you see in Mexico can be applied to some of those other countries, if you feel like there are better opportunities at some point that you can apply there. I was just wondering if you could give us your general thoughts about that.

Speaker 1

Yes, we do think that the playbook that we have can be applied. We actually took some of our experience in Spain and moved it to Mexico. We already have proven that we are able to replicate our strategy and grow the market. Of course, in order to execute such a strategy, you need a lot of money. I'm sure that Brazil will come up in this call eventually. To replicate it in Brazil, you will need a lot of money. We do think that we can replicate it, but we think in order to replicate it now and not like five years ago when we started in Mexico, you need more money. The media prices are a bit higher than in the past and the competition is more harsh. We do enjoy less competition in Mexico.

It's also true that the competition is not as strong, for example, like in Spain. It also gives us some push over that and we have a local presence that also gives us a push. If we are talking about.

A.

new territory where we don't have retail presence, the test case will be a little bit different. Overall, I think Mexico, a lot of the stars aligned correctly for us and helped us grow the market as fast as you see and continue the growth. Plus, on a side comment, I think the market itself has organic growth that we also enjoy, which I cannot give a good explanation why this market grows more than other markets, but it's still growing fast as we think, as we don't have the exact numbers. Other than that, I think we can replicate. We will need more money and maybe a little bit different approach if it's a place where we don't have retail presence.

Speaker 4

Yeah, it's been a while since we've talked about the omnichannel opportunity, but we've never stopped. We're always looking for new ways of leveraging, especially in a jurisdiction like Mexico where our retail parent is a leader in the market, but always looking to leverage opportunities to improve that dynamic for the benefit of both businesses. That's something that I think in all the jurisdictions where we have overlapping businesses, we look to do. I wouldn't say it's the driver of our outperformance. I think the starting point, as Aviv said, is it's still a developing market, it's growing. I think every year we're surprised that it's still growing more than even more optimistic expectations. It's a market. We feel like we've done the right things. We feel like we have a good model. Yes, of course we would always look for opportunities to replicate that elsewhere.

That's some of the things that are under analysis.

Thanks for that color. I think it was important for investors to hear that. I was also just curious about, if you can just talk about the other Latin American countries. You indicated that there were some that obviously fell off a little bit in that quarter. I was just wondering, are there other opportunities there, and if you could just outline for us the specific countries that you might see a little bit better growth coming from as we kind of go into the second half and into 2026.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 1

I'll take it, Oscar. Yeah, go ahead.

Yeah.

Speaker 4

Okay.

Speaker 1

I won't call it an elephant, maybe a small elephant in the room is Colombia. The value-added tax on player deposits that they imposed on us at the beginning of the year is harsh and the business there is struggling. What we've done is basically to reduce everything to the minimum so we keep it at a break even point. That's why we lost some revenues. Fortunately, we were able to cover some of it with good success in Panama, but not all of the revenue loss that we had there in Colombia.

To your question on other countries in Latin America, Colombia, which started at the end of last year to show very good signals that maybe we are able to invest there, unfortunately fell with this value-added tax on player deposits that basically gives us the business around 50% tax, which is very hard for us and our other competitors to operate in this market. We need to see the other competitors report. I'm especially curious about how they are coping with that. Fortunately, we found a little bit more success in Panama, but it will not cover the entire Colombia. It grows very nicely, but both of them in terms of marketing investment are still small for us and the two core markets remain Spain and Mexico.

Speaker 4

Yeah, Mike, I think the good thing is here, as we start generating a little bit more cash flow from these core businesses, obviously our focus is still organic growth, but we start feeling more comfortable about our cash position and the ability to, if the right opportunity were to arise, deploying some of that cash. There's nothing specific on the horizon. I think we're starting to lift our heads and looking around, not just obviously in response to investor questions or analyst questions to what's next for us. We're starting to have those discussions, but nothing specific to report. We're increasingly feeling confident that we can start exploring some of those opportunities.

Speaker 0

Great.

Terrific. I'll let others ask questions. Thank you. Great.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Mike.

Speaker 3

Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press Star one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl with Craig-Hallum. Your line is now open.

Hey guys, let's stay on that small elephant that is Colombia. Can you comment? NGR was down significantly given the VAT impact, but curious about users and then GGR specifically. Thanks.

Speaker 1

What about the net gaming revenue, Sully?

Just curious how GGR was in the quarter. Growth, not growth, what it was relative to the NGR decline. Basically trying to figure out how big of an impact the VAT promo impact was.

Speaker 4

Let me just take a real proposal there.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 4

Hi, Ryan. If I could just take it from a more generic standpoint. I think the important thing to remember is that especially throughout the second quarter, there was a lot of experimentation by all market players to try to find a way through this issue with the understanding that this would be in place at least until year end. It's everyone's guess what's going to happen thereafter. I think everyone has a different opinion. We tried different things. It was a very fluid competitive environment in terms of what people were doing at different points throughout the quarter. I think we decided relatively early on that we wanted to take an approach of making sure we mitigate the impact to our balance sheet, to EBITDA and cash, obviously at the expense of some of the top line.

There were a number of strategies deployed there, including full cashbacks of the VAT impact on the customer themselves, to making the customer hold through promotional allowances, whether those were free bets or casino bonuses or otherwise. It was a very fluid situation throughout the quarter. Every operator took a little bit of a different approach. I think just directionally it's safe to say that our top line impact was significant, something in the order of, let's say, 40% lower than what we were expecting or otherwise would have expected without the imposition of the VAT tax on deposit. We've been successful in mitigating the impact at the operating cash flow level. That's been our approach. I think other operators may be taking a little bit of a different approach. What's true is everyone is struggling with the magnitude of the tax.

I think there's still some work to be done collectively as a sector to make sure that the right people understand what they've actually put in place and what this means for the business over the medium, long term. It's a hard question to ask because it's been a moving target throughout the quarter.

Maybe just as a follow-up, is it a viable market if this continues? I guess it goes, the temporary decree goes through year-end. You'd have to put in something from.

Yeah, they would have to legislate permanent.

If they get something burdensome like this, I guess. Is it even a viable market for you guys? Should this continue?

I think for us, the only way to answer that is we can only answer that for ourselves because every operator has a different view on how this could play out in different ways. I think for us it's a question we would have to analyze. It's not clear, but it's a question we would have to analyze.

Yep, fair enough.

Speaker 1

Maybe.

Last quick one, just thoughts on repurchases. Cash continues to grow on the balance sheet. Business model is inflecting. You're investing nicely while still growing that cash. I guess, why not lean in a little more and buy more shares here?

Speaker 4

It's a good question. It's a discussion that we're having at the board level now on a recurring basis as opposed to from time to time. I think it's a legitimate question and one that we're analyzing. Obviously, as with all capital allocation decisions, it's a board decision and those discussions are taking place. Point taken.

Very good. Good luck, guys.

Thanks, Ryan.

Speaker 3

Your next question comes from the line of Arthur Roulac with Three Court. The line is now open.

Hi guys. Thanks for taking my call. Maybe just to follow up on the share repurchase. Is it just a discretionary share repurchase program at the moment versus something that's systematized?

Speaker 4

We have deployed different strategies at different times since the plan has been put into place. The two options are more of an opportunistic repurchasing, always in the context of the team not having any MMPI, and a planned repurchase plan. We have deployed both at different times, depending on where we were and where we were or are with respect to different restrictions from a trading window standpoint. I think we're aligned in that we want, to the extent we have opportunities to repurchase at what we think are attractive prices. I think we as a company and collectively as shareholders have an interest in doing so. We have deployed different strategies.

What type of material net operating losses are sitting at the company today? It's been a lot of investment and, you know, earlier on there was a lot of loss making. In the context of, I don't know, perhaps an acquisition of the business at some point, are there NOL benefits to someone that could accrue to the buyer?

Yeah, I think directionally, the answer is definitely yes. I don't have a number on the top of my head for Mexico, but obviously Mexico is now starting to inflect. We've had three, four, five years of that heavy level investment. The losses that we've been incurring and would expect that we, as that business continues to generate profits, we'll be able to benefit from that or any. In the context of any future potential transaction in Spain, it's true as well. It's a little bit more complicated because of the tax perimeter we put into place, the consolidation perimeter we put into place as of January 1, 2023, between our intermediate holding company, which is a Spanish entity, and our Spanish operating business.

In that tax reorganization that involved the migration of our business in Malta to Spain and the shuttering of that business, we do continue to have, both prior to and as a consequence of losses that have generated NOL, some of which are activated to the balance sheet, some of which aren't, that we would be able to use in the future. Yes, I think it is. I would say that it's overall, directionally, it's a material amount and would be relevant in the context of an underwriting of the business.

Got it. Thanks.

Thanks, Zor.

Speaker 3

That concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Mr. Guillermo Lancha for closing remarks.

Speaker 0

Thanks, operator. I see that we have no questions on the webcast either. We will leave it here for today. Thank you, everyone, for joining, and we look forward to speaking again with our Q3 results in mid November. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect. All clear.