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ChromaDex Corp. (CDXC)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2024 revenue was $22.7M, up 12% year-over-year; gross margin was 60.2% and net loss was approximately breakeven ($15K), with positive Adjusted EBITDA of $1.6M .
- Management lowered FY2024 revenue growth guidance to 10–15% (from “>16%” previously) and reduced FY2024 G&A outlook to down $1.5M YoY (from up $1.5–$2.5M), citing later-than-expected NIAGEN+ IV commercialization; gross margin “slight improvement” and S&M stable % of sales maintained .
- Launch of NIAGEN+ IV and injectables is a near-term catalyst; supply constraints drove October scaling, with clinic injectables expected in 2–3 months and potential at-home injectables by year-end or Q1 2025 .
- Strategic science/regulatory progress: FDA Orphan Drug and Rare Pediatric Disease designations for nicotinamide riboside chloride (NRC) in AT; new peer-reviewed publications in PAD and brain NAD+ elevate the medium-term narrative .
- Note: management commentary on e-commerce mix (57% current vs 64% prior year) conflicted with the investor presentation (64% Q2’24 vs 57% Q2’23); figures in the presentation and press release indicate 64% e-commerce in Q2’24 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Revenue growth and profit trajectory: Total net sales rose 12% YoY to $22.7M; Adjusted EBITDA improved to $1.6M from $0.2M in Q2’23; operating loss narrowed to $0.3M .
- Product and science milestones: Unveiled NIAGEN+ (IV and injectable), launched NIAGEN+ NAD+ Test Kits; FDA orphan/rare pediatric designations for NRC in AT; new clinical publications (Nature Communications PAD trial; UPenn brain NAD+ study) bolster legitimacy .
- Management quote: “We are thrilled to finally unveil our new product line, Niagen+, … the first company to offer NR in both oral and intravenous forms” — Rob Fried, CEO .
What Went Wrong
- Guidance reset: FY2024 revenue growth lowered to 10–15% due to delays in NIAGEN+ IV commercialization; G&A outlook pivoted from an increase to a $1.5M YoY decrease given timing shifts .
- Margin pressure: Gross margin fell 60 bps YoY to 60.2% on business mix; S&M rose to 30.6% of sales as brand investments increased without last year’s one-time Amazon event tailwind .
- Working capital drag: Operating cash flow was roughly breakeven for 1H’24 vs $6.1M inflow prior year, driven by higher trade receivables (+$4.2M) and lower accounts payable (-$2.5M) .
Financial Results
Segment/channel breakdown (Q2 2024 vs Q2 2023):
KPIs (mix and balance sheet):
Guidance Changes
Drivers: Later NIAGEN+ IV commercialization timing and infrastructure investments shifted to 2025; mix/cost optimization continues underpinning margin outlook .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered solid financial results…virtually breakeven net loss…positive Adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 million” — Rob Fried, CEO .
- “Gross margins remained strong at 60.2%…modest decline mainly due to business mix” — James Lee, Interim CFO .
- “NIAGEN IV will provide a superior experience…75% shorter infusion time and a faster elevation of NAD blood levels” — Rob Fried .
- “We now anticipate a 10% to 15% year-over-year growth…revised our G&A expense outlook…down approximately $1.5 million” — James Lee .
Q&A Highlights
- NIAGEN+ IV adoption: Biggest hurdle is supply availability, not demand; expect >50% share over time; scaling constrained until October batch arrives .
- Market sizing: U.S. NAD IV retail market ~$100–$150M; clinics represent >50% of spend; NIAGEN IV/injectables seen as expanding addressable market .
- Pricing/margins: NIAGEN IV priced slightly above NAD IV; expected to be margin accretive; potential complementary use with GLP-1 users seeking energy .
- Timeline: Clinic injectables in 2–3 months; at-home injectables by year-end or Q1 next year (indicative) .
- China: Blue Hat approval unlikely near-term; NMN banned as cross-border product; awareness gap persists between NMN and TRU NIAGEN .
- B2B dynamics: Partner’s Amazon-heavy marketing on a combined product boosted NIAGEN ingredient sales materially; “lumpiness” remains .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates for CDXC were unavailable at the time of analysis; comparisons to Wall Street consensus for Q2 2024 cannot be provided. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable; therefore, no estimate comparisons are included.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q2 delivered clean top-line growth and continued bottom-line improvement, highlighted by positive Adjusted EBITDA and near-breakeven net income — a supportive setup for any re-rating on sustainability of profitability .
- The guidance reset reflects prudent timing assumptions for NIAGEN+ IV; the pivot to lowering G&A and maintaining margin discipline de-risks execution in 2H and into 2025 .
- NIAGEN+ IV/injectables is the core near-term catalyst; October supply scaling, a clinic channel with established demand, and potential at-home injections broaden optionality and could expand the current ~$100–$150M NAD IV market .
- Science/regulatory tailwinds (AT orphan/rare designations, PAD and brain NAD+ publications) bolster the medium-term thesis beyond dietary supplements, potentially opening therapeutic or professional channels .
- Watch the China narrative: NMN cross-border ban is a structural tailwind, but consumer confusion remains; partner execution (H&H, SinoPharm, iHerb) is the key to unlocking transition .
- Channel mix matters: e-commerce vs B2B/ingredient mix drives margin variability; note the discrepancy between call commentary and slide data on e-commerce mix — anchor modeling to presentation (64% Q2’24) until clarified .
- Near-term trading implications: stock likely sensitive to October NIAGEN IV supply milestones, clinic adoption updates, and any clarity on injectables timing; medium-term considerations include 2025 growth trajectory, partner-driven ingredient demand, and clinical data readouts (e.g., Parkinson’s) .