Executive Summary

Net sales rose 17% sequentially to $631.0 million, with diluted EPS $0.47 and adjusted EPS $0.49; adjusted EBITDA was $82.4 million, normalizing higher on better realized LME/regional premiums and a $12 million alumina force majeure settlement benefit .
Liquidity ended at $244.5 million (cash $32.9 million and $211.6 million availability), down from Q3 due to alumina working capital dynamics; shipments were 166,677 tonnes, down 1% q/q .
Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance: $75–$85 million; Midwest premium has already moved from ~$0.20/lb realized in Q4 to ~$0.39/lb spot, with most benefit to be recognized in Q2 due to one-month lag .
Key catalysts: strengthened Section 232 tariffs to 25% effective March 12 driving Midwest premiums, accelerated Mt. Holly restart consideration, Grundartangi power curtailments ended mid-Feb with full production expected in Q2, and DOE grant progress for a new U.S. smelter .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Sequential net sales +17% on higher third-party alumina sales, aluminum prices, and regional premiums .
Normalized adjusted EBITDA improved on favorable realized LME/regional premiums and a nonrecurring alumina force majeure settlement; “we recorded a $12 million benefit after reaching a settlement with an external alumina supplier” .
Operational positives: Sebree’s “finest operating years ever,” Jamalco off to a strong 2025 start with January production at post-acquisition highs; Grundartangi curtailments ended mid-February with full production expected in Q2 .

What Went Wrong

Adjusted EBITDA fell sequentially to $82.4 million due to the one-time Q3 Section 45X true-up; additional operating expenses and higher raw materials, including Mt. Holly issues, pressured Q4 .
Liquidity decreased to $244.5 million, primarily due to alumina working capital timing despite cash levels stable at $32.9 million .
Non-GAAP adjustments: $5.8 million unrealized derivative losses (net of tax), $2.0 million lower of cost or NRV inventory adjustment, and $5.3 million share-based compensation affected reported-to-adjusted bridge .

Financial Results

Income Statement and Profitability (Quarterly comparisons)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q4 2023
Shipments (tonnes)	167,908	168,755	166,677	171,995
Net Sales ($MM)	$560.8	$539.1	$631.0	$512.3
Net Income Attrib. to Century ($MM)	$(2.5)	$47.3	$47.7	$30.0
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.03)	$0.46	$0.47	$0.30
Adjusted Net Income ($MM)	$0.7	$60.0	$45.9	—
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.01	$0.63	$0.49	—
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	$34.2	$103.7	$82.4	—

Margins (Derived from reported figures)

Margin Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q4 2023
Gross Profit Margin (%)	15.2%	10.7%	7.7%
Operating Income Margin (%)	11.8%	8.1%	5.7%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	19.2%	13.1%	—

Notes: Margin percentages are calculated from reported gross profit, operating income, net sales, and adjusted EBITDA disclosures .

Regional Shipments and Sales (Primary Aluminum)

Region	Q3 2024 Tonnes	Q3 2024 Sales ($MM)	Q4 2024 Tonnes	Q4 2024 Sales ($MM)
United States	97,173	$282.6	89,613	$267.4
Iceland	71,582	$202.8	77,064	$215.2
Total	168,755	$485.4	166,677	$482.6

Note: Excludes scrap aluminum, purchased aluminum, and alumina sales .

Key Operating KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Realized LME ($/MT)	$2,451	$2,462
US Midwest Premium ($/MT)	$421	$436
European Duty-Paid Premium ($/MT)	$335	$341
Liquidity ($MM)	$278.9	$244.5
Cash and Cash Equivalents ($MM)	$32.6	$32.9

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	Q4 2024	$70–$80	Actual: $82.4	Above range
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	Q1 2025	—	$75–$85	New
Shipments (kMT)	FY 2025	—	700	New
Sustaining Capex ($MM)	FY 2025	—	$45–$50	New
Investment Capex ($MM)	FY 2025	—	$25–$30	New

Management also highlighted that Midwest premium benefits from the strengthened Section 232 tariffs will largely be reflected in Q2 due to contractual one-month lag .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Tariffs/Macro	Broader US/EU trade actions supportive of domestic pricing; nearshoring tailwinds	Section 45X final rules increased credits; strong stimulus supported prices	Section 232 tariffs raised to 25%; Midwest premium up from $0.20 to ~$0.39 spot	Strengthening tailwind
Alumina supply & force majeure	Hurricane Beryl port damage; alternative port arrangements; FM at Jamalco disclosed	Tight alumina market; no API exposure due to Jamalco/LME-linked contracts	Q4 alumina supplier FM; $12M settlement offsets costs; Q1 FIFO headwind, no repeat after Q1	Stabilizing post Q1
Operations (Grundartangi & Sebree)	Grundartangi returned to full production post curtailment; positive trials for Natur-AL billet	Iceland curtailments through May 2025; included in guidance	Curtailments ended mid-Feb; ramping to full by Q2; Sebree “finest operating years ever”	Improving
Mt. Holly & Hawesville optionality	Mt. Holly restart economics discussed; incremental tons are most profitable	Hawesville strategic alternatives; data center interest; restart vs sale evaluation	Mt. Holly restart analysis accelerating with tariffs; Hawesville process ongoing	More constructive
DOE grant/new smelter	Continued engagement on policy; development considerations	—	Under formal award with DOE $500M; site selection/energy negotiations targeted by end of Q2	Advancing

Management Commentary

Pricing tailwinds: “Aluminum prices averaged $2,575 for the quarter and rose further in Q1 to date, with spot LME trading above $2,700 and Midwest premium trading near $0.39 today.”
Force majeure resolution: “We recorded a $12 million benefit after reaching a settlement with an external alumina supplier regarding a force majeure supply disruption in Q4.”
Operations momentum: “Jamalco notably is off to a very strong start to 2025 with January production at the highest monthly levels since we purchased the plant.”
Policy support: “Effective March 12, President Trump's actions will… revoke all exemptions and raise the tariff rate from 10% to 25%… Midwest premium has already risen from the $0.20 we realized in Q4 to $0.39 spot today.”
New smelter strategy: “We… went formally under award with the Department of Energy for the $500 million grant… finalize energy contract negotiations and site selection… by the end of Q2.”

Q&A Highlights

Earnings power from Midwest premium: Management confirmed material EBITDA uplift from premium increases, implying significant annual impact from the move toward ~$0.39 spot and potential further upside to $0.45–$0.50: “each penny of increase in Midwest premium equating to an additional $9 million of EBITDA on an annualized basis” with lag effects pushing benefit to Q2 .
Mt. Holly restart: Instability in Q4 is being addressed; analysis updated post-tariff changes; restart timeline estimated around nine months from decision, with restart costs to be disclosed upon decision .
Q1 alumina headwind: Accounting timing creates a $10–$15 million headwind in Q1 that does not repeat in Q2; management emphasized the Q4 FM settlement fully offsets the one-time alumina cost .
Hawesville process: Continued strong interest; evaluation against potential restart value informed by new tariff environment .
Jamalco capex: Investment capex at Jamalco of ~$20–$50 million in 2025, with similar scale in 2026 to drive productivity and capacity uplift .

Estimates Context

S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates for Q4 2024 could not be retrieved due to vendor limits; as a result, consensus comparisons are unavailable at this time. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global when accessible.

Metric	Period	Actual	Consensus (S&P Global)
Revenue ($MM)	Q4 2024	$631.0	Unavailable (S&P Global)
Diluted EPS ($)	Q4 2024	$0.47	Unavailable (S&P Global)
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	Q4 2024	$82.4	Unavailable (S&P Global)

Implications: Absent consensus benchmarks, we note that Q4 adjusted EBITDA came in above the prior $70–$80 million guidance range, driven by realized pricing and the alumina settlement, partially offset by raw materials and opex .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Pricing leverage is improving: Strengthened Section 232 tariffs materially lift Midwest premium and Q2 profitability due to contractual lags; management sensitivity underscores outsized EBITDA impact per penny of premium .
Q1 is a transitional quarter: Expect an accounting-driven alumina headwind to depress Q1 results, with reversal in Q2 alongside rising Midwest premium realization; guidance is $75–$85 million adjusted EBITDA .
Operations are tightening: Grundartangi curtailments ended mid-Feb with full production expected in Q2; Sebree performing strongly; Jamalco workforce optimization and capex to push toward second-quartile costs .
Balance sheet/liquidity: Liquidity of $244.5 million supports ongoing capex and strategic flexibility even after alumina working capital draw; net debt increased to ~$530 million total debt, with focus on liquidity/net debt targets .
Strategic optionality: Mt. Holly restart increasingly favorable under higher Midwest premium; Hawesville strategic alternatives progress with potential value from power infrastructure and repurposing .
Policy tailwinds & growth: DOE $500 million grant award advances the first U.S. smelter in 50 years; site selection and energy sourcing targeted by end of Q2, a long-term capacity expansion catalyst .
Trading setup: Near-term dip in Q1 on alumina FIFO plus energy seasonality may create entry points ahead of Q2 premium uplift realization; monitor Midwest premium trajectory and alumina market normalization .

CENTURY ALUMINUM CO (CENX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary