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CERUS CORP (CERS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 total revenue was $56.751M, with product revenue up 9% YoY to $50.809M and IFC revenue ~$3.0M; product gross margin compressed to 53.9% on FX and freight costs .
  • FY 2024 goals achieved: positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA ($5.732M FY; $3.274M in Q4) and four consecutive quarters of positive operating cash flow ($4.9M in Q4) .
  • FY 2025 product revenue guidance reiterated at $194–$200M (IFC $12–$15M), with gross margin expected in the mid-50s and SG&A rising modestly with leverage .
  • Commercial momentum: global platelet adoption (Canada 100% PR), rising IFC demand aided by new BLAs enabling interstate shipment; EMEA product revenue up 16% YoY in Q4 .
  • Estimates comparison unavailable: S&P Global Wall Street consensus data could not be retrieved at time of analysis; beat/miss not presented [GetEstimates errors].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Platelet franchise growth and international strength drove Q4 product revenue +9% YoY; EMEA up 16% YoY, North America up 6% YoY .
  • IFC adoption inflecting: Q4 IFC revenue ~$3.0M (vs $2.3M PY) with BLAs enabling interstate shipments; “clinicians highly value earlier access to fibrinogen” .
  • Cash flow and profitability metrics improved: Q4 positive operating cash flow ($4.9M); FY positive adjusted EBITDA ($5.732M) beating “breakeven” objective .
  • Quote: “Our exceptional fourth quarter performance capped a year of significant growth… rising clinical demand for our IFC product” — CEO Obi Greenman .

What Went Wrong

  • Product gross margin declined to 53.9% in Q4 (from 55.5% in Q4 2023) due to stronger USD, expedited freight and higher discard rates for certain products .
  • Government contract revenue fell to $5.942M (vs $6.574M PY) tied to completion of U.S. Phase 3 ReCePI RBC trial; annual government contract revenue -31% YoY .
  • Q4 GAAP net loss widened slightly YoY to $(2.521)M, EPS $(0.01), with SG&A up on non-cash stock comp and a ~$2M Q4 catch-up accrual .

Financial Results

Income Statement and Margins (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$53.342 $50.519 $50.656 $56.751
Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$46.768 $45.079 $46.017 $50.809
Government Contract Revenue ($USD Millions)$6.574 $5.440 $4.639 $5.942
Product Gross Margin %55.5% 54.7% 56.9% 53.9%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.01) $(0.03) $(0.02) $(0.01)
Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$4.743 $0.779 $4.388 $3.274

Segment/Region Product Revenue (Q4)

RegionQ4 2023 ($USD Millions)Q4 2024 ($USD Millions)
North America$32.110 $34.011
Europe, Middle East & Africa$13.833 $16.081
Other$0.825 $0.717
Total Product Revenue$46.768 $50.809

KPIs

KPIQ4 2024
Platelet Kit Growth – North America (YoY)2%
Platelet Kit Growth – International (YoY)23%
Platelet Kit Growth – Worldwide (YoY)7%
Treatable Platelet Doses – North America (YoY)3%
Treatable Platelet Doses – International (YoY)22%
Treatable Platelet Doses – Worldwide (YoY)9%
IFC Revenue ($USD Millions)$2.981 Q4 2024; $2.312 Q4 2023
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$4.9 in Q4 2024

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Product RevenueFY 2025$194–$200M (incl. IFC $12–$15M) $194–$200M (incl. IFC $12–$15M) Maintained
IFC RevenueFY 2025$12–$15M $12–$15M Maintained
Product Gross Margin %FY 2025Mid-50s (qualitative) Mid-50s (qualitative) Maintained
SG&AFY 2025N/A (explicit prior not given)“Modestly up” with leverage New qualitative detail
Product RevenueFY 2024$175–$178M (Aug raise) $177–$179M (Oct raise) Raised in Q3

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
IFC adoption & supplyQ2: Accelerating demand; IFC $2.0M; building capacity ; Q3: +$2.3M; 3 new BLAs enabling interstate shipments ~$3.0M in Q4; additional BLAs; goal to balance demand-supply; “production volumes ramp” Accelerating
Platelet franchiseQ2: NA led growth; CBS at 100% PR ; Q3: ~2/3 platelets PR; stable to higher EMEA Q4 growth in NA & EMEA; kit/dose KPIs positive Stable-to-up
Gross margin outlookQ2/Q3: mid-50s; improvement in Q3 to 56.9% Q4 at 53.9% on FX, freight, discards; FY 2025 mid-50s expected Mixed; quarterly variability
RBC program (U.S./EU)Oct 16: New BARDA up to $248M; EU CE review concluded without approval; enhanced submission planned Continued collaboration with TÜV SÜD; RedeS enrollment ongoing for modular PMA Progressing/Regulatory work
LED illuminatorQ3: CE dossier submitted; 2025 EU launch targeted Reaffirm EU launch 2025; platform benefits; neutral margin impact Near-term launch prep
Geographies (China, Brazil, Middle East)Q3: Middle East opportunity; Germany early-stage ; Brazil private sector only China JV: NMPA approval expected in 2025; provincial reimbursement needed; Brazil public sector application underway Building runway
Government contractsQ2/Q3: revenue down due to ReCePI completion; new BARDA starts 2025 Expect bump-up as all awards run concurrently; Q4 $5.942M Recovery into 2025

Management Commentary

  • “We anticipate year-over-year growth of 8% to 11% while focusing on the forward health of our bottom line results” — CEO, prepared remarks .
  • “Clinicians highly value earlier access to fibrinogen… hospitals appreciate reduction in wastage and time from order to availability” — COO, on IFC adoption .
  • “Product gross margins… will generally remain in the mid-50s… quarterly variability [FX, mix, freight, discard rates]” — CFO .
  • “Total addressable market estimated to exceed $7 billion annually… we are sub-10% penetrated” — CEO .
  • “We achieved positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for 2024… generated positive operating cash flows for the fourth straight quarter” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • IFC capacity and BLAs: supply ramp to meet growing demand; guidance assumes sufficient manufacturing; more BLAs expected over 2025 .
  • Gross margin drivers: Q4 headwinds episodic (freight/discards); FX is ongoing watch-out; FY 2025 mid-50s targeted .
  • SG&A trajectory: modest increase in 2025; Q4 included ~$2M catch-up accrual; leverage expected .
  • China and Brazil: China NMPA approval expected 2025, then provincial reimbursement; Brazil public sector access under review .
  • Government contracts: 2025 run-rate to increase as new BARDA overlaps legacy awards and RedeS enrollment ramps .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 revenue and EPS could not be retrieved at time of analysis due to SPGI daily request limit; beat/miss versus Street is not presented [GetEstimates errors].
  • Given reiterated FY 2025 product revenue guidance ($194–$200M) and IFC ramp ($12–$15M), Street models may need to reflect stronger IFC contribution and continued platelet share gains .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Momentum intact: product revenue +9% YoY in Q4; IFC ~$3.0M Q4 with visibility to further capacity additions via BLAs; EMEA growth +16% YoY .
  • Profitability trajectory: durable positive adjusted EBITDA and positive operating cash flow suggest improving operating leverage into 2025 .
  • Margins: expect mid-50s product gross margin in FY 2025; monitor FX and freight/discards; Q4 dip appears episodic per management .
  • Guidance credibility: FY 2025 product revenue $194–$200M reiterated; IFC $12–$15M embedded; SG&A leverage commentary supports margin resilience .
  • Pipeline catalysts: LED illuminator EU launch in 2025; RBC modular PMA path in U.S. with BARDA funding; potential enhanced EU filing .
  • Geographic expansion: Canada fully PR; progress in Middle East, Germany; China/Brazil could add medium-term upside post approvals and reimbursement .
  • Trading implications: near-term focus on IFC supply ramp, gross margin recovery, and confirmation of FY 2025 revenue trajectory; watch FX and shipping costs for quarterly volatility .

Additional Documents Reviewed

  • Q4/FY 2024 press release detailing revenue, margins, EBITDA, cash flow, guidance .
  • Form 8‑K Item 2.02 furnishing the Q4/FY 2024 press release and supplemental tables .
  • Earnings call transcript (Q4 2024) covering prepared remarks and Q&A on IFC, margins, guidance, geographies –.
  • Preliminary Q4/FY 2024 revenue update and initial FY 2025 guidance (Jan 13, 2025) .
  • Q3 2024 press release and call for trend analysis, including raised FY 2024 guidance and KPI progress – .
  • Q2 2024 press release for earlier trend and guidance raise –.