CI
CEVA INC (CEVA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue was $24.2M (+10% YoY) on strong licensing ($15.0M) but softer royalties ($9.2M); non-GAAP EPS was $0.06 and GAAP EPS was -$0.14 .
- Results missed Wall Street consensus on revenue ($26.6M*) and EPS ($0.0704*) for Q1; however, CEVA subsequently beat Q2 2025 consensus on both revenue ($25.3M* est vs $25.7M actual) and EPS ($0.053* est vs $0.07 actual) .
- Guidance was lowered: 2025 revenue growth cut from high-single digits to low-single digits; expense plan tightened to in-line with 2024; Q2 revenue guided to $23.7M–$27.7M, with GM ~86% GAAP/87% non-GAAP .
- Operating context: first royalties from a leading U.S. OEM’s in-house 5G modem; Wi‑Fi royalties +183% YoY on mix shift to Wi‑Fi 6 ASP; licensing pipeline highlighted by Wi‑Fi 7 and Edge AI ADAS wins (Nextchip) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Licensing momentum: 11 agreements in Q1 including Wi‑Fi 7 with a long-term connectivity customer, Edge AI NPU for automotive ADAS, and spatial audio for a leading PC OEM; licensing revenue +32% YoY to $15.0M .
- Strategic royalty drivers: “We received the first royalty report from a leading U.S. OEM using our technology in their in-house 5G modem,” positioning CEVA for a meaningful long-term revenue stream .
- Wi‑Fi royalty leverage: Wi‑Fi royalties +183% YoY on a 12% unit increase, reflecting higher ASPs of Wi‑Fi 6; shipments robust across consumer/industrial IoT and Bluetooth .
What Went Wrong
- Royalty shortfall: “Royalty revenue fell short of expectations due to soft low-cost smartphone shipments and an industrial customer with a slower product ramp-up” .
- Gross margin slightly below forecast/guidance (GAAP 86%, non-GAAP 87%) with some R&D costs allocated to COGS for a strategic satellite modem customer, trimming GM by ~1–2 pts .
- 2025 outlook caution: management lowered full-year revenue growth to low-single digits amid macro uncertainty and indirect demand impacts; sequential recovery in royalties expected but visibility reduced .
Financial Results
Quarterly Financials (oldest → newest)
Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024
Estimates vs Actuals
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment Breakdown (Revenue)
KPIs and Shipment Mix
Non-GAAP adjustments in Q1 excluded equity-based comp ($4.3M), amortization ($0.2M), acquisition costs ($0.1M), and $0.1M remeasurement loss; non-GAAP operating income was $0.3M and non-GAAP EPS $0.06 .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We delivered solid progress in our licensing business… While royalty revenue was below expectations, we are encouraged by adoption… in a leading U.S. OEM’s in-house 5G modem launched in the quarter” .
- CEO on ADAS: “NeuPro‑M’s support for vision transformers… and ability to process multiple video streams and AI models in parallel make it ideal for next-generation ADAS” .
- CFO: “Quarterly gross margins came in 1% lower than forecasted… As discussed, some R&D costs… are presented in COGS” .
- CFO on financial items: Net financial income $2.1M boosted by ~7% euro appreciation impacting euro-denominated assets (e.g., French tax receivables) .
- CFO on shipments: 420M units (+13% YoY), with Bluetooth 233M (+15%), Cellular IoT 48M (+31%), Wi‑Fi 35M (+12%); Wi‑Fi royalties +183% YoY on Wi‑Fi 6 ASP mix .
Q&A Highlights
- ADAS win scope: With a Tier‑1 supplier; program spans multiple OEMs and next-gen platforms, not a single OEM .
- Wi‑Fi 6/7 ASPs: Transition from Wi‑Fi 4→6 drove major ASP uplift; Wi‑Fi 7 expected to add further uplift as it ramps in future years .
- Smartphone softness: Seasonality and supply chain adjustments drove Q1 softness; management expects sequential ramp through the year and limited direct tariff impact .
- Licensing pipeline: Activity remains healthy; customers are cautious given macro, but no material licensing push-outs observed; localization trends may be tailwinds .
- Gross margin allocation: Temporary services/customization for advanced 5G use cases moves costs to COGS; expected to normalize post-completion while IP re-use benefits future designs .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 missed consensus: Revenue $24.245M vs $26.5515M*; EPS $0.06 vs $0.0704*; driven by royalty shortfall (low-cost smartphones, slower industrial ramp) and slightly lower GM .
- Q2 2025 beat consensus: Revenue $25.678M vs $25.325M*; EPS $0.07 vs $0.053*; aided by sequential royalty recovery, Wi‑Fi 6 ASP mix, and disciplined OpEx .
- FY 2025 consensus stands at $109.41M* revenue and $0.4232* EPS; management cut revenue growth guidance to low-single digits, implying potential near-term estimate recalibration .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Licensing strength and strategic wins (Wi‑Fi 7, NeuPro‑M ADAS, spatial audio) support medium-term royalty growth and diversify end markets .
- Near-term royalty headwinds in low-end smartphones weighed on Q1; management expects sequential recovery starting Q2, with initial 5G modem royalties from a leading U.S. OEM as a multi-year driver .
- Mix shift to Wi‑Fi 6 is materially accretive to royalties (+183% YoY on 12% unit growth), a high-quality earnings lever as volumes scale .
- GM modestly below guide due to temporary COGS allocation for advanced 5G customization; margins should normalize post-completion while IP enhancements are reusable .
- 2025 guidance was de-risked (low-single-digit revenue growth; expenses in-line with 2024), prioritizing profitability and OpEx discipline; monitor delivery vs Q2 guidance range and margins .
- FX tailwinds (EUR appreciation) boosted net financial income in Q1; not core but supportive to EPS variability .
- Trading lens: Post-Q1 miss, the narrative hinges on sequential royalty recovery, Wi‑Fi 6/7 ASP uplift, and AI NPU adoption pace; catalysts include additional OEM ramps and ADAS design wins converting to licenses/royalties .