CG
Capstone Green Energy Holdings, Inc. (CGEH)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY2025 revenue was $27.1M (+11% YoY) with gross margin expanding to 28% (vs ~11% YoY), delivering adjusted EBITDA of $2.8M and near-breakeven net loss of $0.1M; full-year FY2025 achieved the company’s first positive adjusted EBITDA, a notable milestone.
- Strength came from product price increases, improved rental fleet utilization, and cost efficiencies; Europe remained soft due to restructuring hesitancy, while North America demand improved, including EaaS rentals.
- Management reiterated focus on financial discipline (DFMA cost-out, OpEx control) and disclosed the SEC investigation was closed with no action; working to elevate stock to OTC QX and longer-term relist on a national exchange.
- No formal numeric guidance provided; management pointed to similar near-term performance trends and order momentum, with tailwinds from IRA credits and oil & gas rentals utilization.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Gross profit surged to $7.5M and gross margin to 28% in Q4, driven by pricing actions, rental utilization, and operational cost efficiencies. “Price increases across the portfolio improved margins.”
- Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $2.8M in Q4 and $7.9M for FY2025, reflecting “financial and business discipline actions” and significant non-recurring addbacks that concluded in Q1 FY2026.
- SEC investigation closed with no action, removing a key overhang; management emphasized disciplined execution and cultural revitalization positioning for sustainable performance.
What Went Wrong
- Full-year revenue declined to $85.6M (from $91.2M) due to slow H1 product sales and European instability following restructuring; product/accessories mix fell to 47% of FY revenue (from 54% prior year).
- Europe saw order softness (macro gas volatility, anti-gas stance), while deferred revenue dynamics and receivable write-offs reflected lingering post-restructuring and COVID-era impacts.
- Tariffs (steel/aluminum) present a gross margin headwind on components; management is modeling scenarios, with potential offset from European competitor tariffs benefiting U.S.-made product positioning.
Financial Results
Quarterly Trend vs Prior Year and Estimates
Q4 Year-over-Year Comparison
Segment Breakdown – Q4
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Note: Q4 call transcript not available; Q3 transcript used, and Q4 press release commentary included. Q4 call was scheduled for July 2, 2025.
Management Commentary
- CFO: “Fourth-quarter results… reflect the improvements in our services and rental business revenues, and lower costs of goods sold driven by our cost-out initiatives… strategic price increases across the portfolio improved margins.”
- CFO: “The previously disclosed SEC investigation has been closed with no action taken by the SEC… focus on the strategic growth of the business.”
- CEO: “In all of its 37-year history, the Company has never delivered a positive Adjusted EBITDA over a full fiscal year… steady improvements in financial health, operational excellence, and revitalization of our culture.”
- Q3 CEO: North America orders surged; EaaS rentals had “very strong utilization rates” and price increases; adjusted EBITDA margin trending up via price stickiness and OpEx optimization.
Q&A Highlights
- End-markets: Oil & gas is a current hotspot across rentals and new unit sales; data centers are a large opportunity with power blocks; electrification and EV charging seeing infrastructure constraints.
- Margins & DFMA: Significant runway in product margin via DFMA and absorption; service/rentals margin improves with operational discipline; DFMA projects target non-powertrain components first to avoid reliability compromise.
- Tariffs: Steel/aluminum tariffs are a COGS headwind; potential benefit from tariffs on European competitors’ finished goods in U.S.; active scenario modeling.
- Capital & working capital: Refinancing discussions underway for $7.8M exit notes due 12/02/2025; receivables allowance reduced for remote collectability; deferred revenue increased with deposits reflecting improved order book.
- Operations & lead times: Typical order-to-billing ~13–14 weeks; pushing suppliers to reduce extended COVID-era lead times; evaluating secondary market turbines for rental fleet conversion.
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 FY2025 appear unavailable due to limited coverage; no beat/miss determination can be made. Values retrieved from S&P Global.* [GetEstimates output]
- Implication: Absent formal consensus, investor focus should center on sequential momentum (revenue +34% vs Q3, margin +300bps) and structural margin drivers (pricing, DFMA), rather than headline beat/miss optics.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Margin story improving: Q4 gross margin 28% and adjusted EBITDA of $2.8M reflect pricing actions, rental utilization, and DFMA; FY2025 delivered first full-year positive adjusted EBITDA.
- Demand normalization: Sequential revenue acceleration (+$6.9M vs Q3) and deposits indicate order recovery; EaaS rentals utilization remains a lever for cash generation.
- Legal/market structure de-risked: SEC investigation closure removes an uncertainty; OTCQX pursuit and eventual relist aim to broaden investor base and liquidity.
- Watch tariffs and Europe: Component tariffs can pressure COGS; Europe demand remains soft; U.S. manufacturing base and potential tariff asymmetries may aid competitiveness domestically.
- Capital considerations: Exit notes refinancing in process; improving operating cash flow ($7.7M FY) and DFMA cost-out support liquidity; monitor receivables and deferred revenue conversion.
- Near-term trading: Narrative catalysts include margin expansion, adjusted EBITDA inflection, SEC closure, and OTCQX progress; absence of formal guidance may shift focus to operational execution and order momentum.
- Medium-term thesis: Structural margin improvements via DFMA and absorption, EaaS growth, NA tailwinds (IRA, grid constraints), and portfolio additions (transactional cleantech products) can underpin sustained profitability.
Citations:
- Q4 FY2025 8-K and press release:
- Q3 FY2025 8-K and press release:
- Q3 FY2025 earnings call transcript:
- Q2 FY2025 8-K and press release:
- Q1 FY2025 8-K and press release:
- Q4 relevant press release: Board appointment (Q4 window):
Estimates note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*