CC
COGNEX CORP (CGNX)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 revenue was $249.1M, up 4% year over year; adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.7% (+80 bps y/y) and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.24 while adjusted EPS was $0.25 (+12% y/y). Management emphasized disciplined OpEx and strong free cash flow as key drivers of margin expansion .
- Gross margin compressed to 67.4% (adjusted 68.0%) on less favorable industry mix and tariffs; operating margin improved to 17.4% with adjusted operating margin at 18.7% (+90 bps y/y) .
- Q3 2025 guidance: revenue $245–$265M, adjusted EBITDA margin 19.5%–22.5%, adjusted diluted EPS $0.24–$0.29; guidance excludes a one-time benefit to revenue of $8–$14M from a medical lab automation channel partnership. Tariffs expected to have no material impact on adjusted EPS/EBITDA margin; OBBBA expected to be neutral to adjusted EPS in 2025 and to provide $12–$15M cash tax benefit .
- Narrative and potential stock reaction catalysts: sustained momentum in Logistics (sixth consecutive quarter of growth), broader Factory Automation strength (Consumer Electronics, Packaging), and strategic AI initiatives (OneVision) supporting product differentiation and customer reach .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Margin discipline and cash generation: “Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 80 bps to 20.7%… highest quarterly margin we’ve achieved in the past two years,” with trailing-12M FCF conversion at 130% of adjusted net income .
- Market momentum: Strength in Logistics and broader Factory Automation, “especially in Consumer Electronics and Packaging,” driven by salesforce transformation .
- AI leadership: Launch of OneVision cloud platform to streamline deployment of AI-powered vision tools; early customer feedback cited as positive and scalability expected across more products .
What Went Wrong
- Gross margin pressure: GAAP gross margin fell to 67.4% (adjusted 68.0%), down ~230 bps y/y on mix and tariffs .
- Automotive weakness: Continued decline in auto end market; management remains cautious on full-year outlook and noted labor scarcity and quality priorities amid macro uncertainty .
- Semi slowdown: Modest y/y decline against a strong comparison and persistent tariff/trade-policy uncertainty affecting sentiment and supply chain planning .
Financial Results
Quarterly performance versus prior periods
Q2 2025 actuals vs Wall Street consensus (S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Regional and end-market highlights (narrative, y/y on cc basis)
KPIs and cash metrics
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We sustained our positive momentum from Q1 into Q2, with strength in Logistics and broader Factory Automation, especially in Consumer Electronics and Packaging. We believe that our salesforce transformation is delivering impactful results…” .
- CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA margin… above 20% for the first time since 2023… fourth consecutive quarter of EPS growth… free cash flow conversion rate… strengthened to 130% of adjusted net income” .
- CEO on AI: “OneVision… designed to transform the way manufacturers build, train, and scale AI-powered vision tools… setting a new benchmark… simplifies complexity without compromising performance” .
- CFO on guidance: “In Q3, we expect revenue between $245M and $265M… adjusted EBITDA margin between 19.5% and 22.5%… adjusted EPS between $0.24 and $0.29” .
- CFO on tariffs: “We continue to expect no material impact on adjusted EBITDA margin and earnings per share and continue to estimate a 50 basis point dilution to gross margin” .
Q&A Highlights
- Operating leverage and cost discipline: Management outlined a programmatic approach across engineering, sales, back-office, and facilities to optimize costs while funding growth initiatives; margin gains seen as sustainable with seasonality caveats .
- Logistics growth drivers: Balanced between greenfield and brownfield; expanding vision (2D/3D) beyond traceability; process improvements in existing facilities .
- Pricing/tariffs: Pricing pressure in China eased toward neutral; supply chain actions and customer agreements mitigate tariff impact; guidance includes ~50 bps gross margin dilution .
- One-time channel partnership: Multi-year software license minimums and component inventory transfer recognized in a single quarter by accounting; excluded from guidance to highlight underlying run-rate .
- Automotive/EV: Macros weak; vision demand supported by quality and efficiency needs; EV battery overcapacity normalizing; engagement continues on applications .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 results compared to S&P Global consensus: Revenue $249.1M vs $246.1M* (beat by ~$3.0M); Primary EPS $0.25 vs $0.228* (beat by ~$0.022). Management’s guidance for Q3 implies continued y/y growth with margin expansion, which may support upward estimate revisions if execution persists .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Earnings quality improving: Adjusted EBITDA margin >20% for the first time in two years; disciplined OpEx and healthy FCF conversion underpin profitability even as gross margin faces mix/tariff headwinds .
- Demand breadth: Logistics, Packaging, and Consumer Electronics strength offsets Semi softness and persistent Automotive weakness; regional mix shifting with supply chain migration out of China .
- Guidance supports momentum: Q3 revenue $245–$265M and margin expansion, with “one-time” partnership benefit excluded—helpful for assessing underlying growth; watch seasonality in Q4 (expected sequential step down) .
- AI platform catalyst: OneVision cloud platform could accelerate deployment of advanced vision and expand addressable use cases across devices/lines/sites—monitor rollout pace and attach rates through 2026 .
- Tariffs manageable: No material impact expected on adjusted EPS/EBITDA margin; gross margin dilution estimated at ~50 bps—pricing pressures easing and supply chain mitigation progressing .
- Capital returns: >$200M returned over TTM via buybacks/dividends; dividend maintained at $0.08 per share in Q2; balance sheet with $553M cash/investments and no debt supports flexibility .
- Watch OBBBA tax effects: 2025 adjusted EPS neutral, but $12–$15M cash tax benefit expected; potential mechanics on reported tax rate to be clarified by management .