CW
Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 net sales rose 8.7% to $950.7M and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.25; both exceeded Wall Street consensus, with revenue beating by ~$24.2M and EPS by ~$0.06. Management cited typical seasonality and strong growth in unique item placements, with solid operating leverage versus Q1 2024 .
- Adjusted EBITDA increased to $47.5M (+18% YoY), while gross margin dipped 18 bps to 23.8% due to mix and elevated chocolate/egg pricing; specialty gross margin rose 6 bps, center‑of‑the‑plate fell 83 bps .
- Guidance nudged higher at the low end: FY25 net sales $3.96–$4.04B (from $3.94–$4.04B), gross profit $954–$976M (from $951–$976M), and adjusted EBITDA $234–$246M (from $233–$246M). Convertible notes are expected to be dilutive, driving 46.3–47.0M diluted shares in FY25 .
- Near-term stock catalysts: clear revenue/EPS beat, strong cash generation ($49.6M CFO), and low-end guidance raise; call commentary framed tariffs as manageable and demand resilient, potentially supporting estimate revisions and sentiment .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Net sales +8.7% YoY to $950.7M; specialty sales +10.7% with unique customers +4.5%, placements +7.7%, specialty case count +5.7%—demonstrating share gains and breadth expansion .
- Operating leverage: SG&A grew 6.5% vs revenue +8.7%, driving operating income up to $22.7M (2.4% margin) from $16.0M (1.7% margin) in Q1 2024 .
- Quote: “Our business units, international and domestic, delivered strong growth in unique item placements and solid operating leverage versus the prior year first quarter” — Christopher Pappas (CEO) .
What Went Wrong
- Gross margin down 18 bps to 23.8% YoY, with notable center‑of‑the‑plate margin compression (‑83 bps) amid higher-dollar mix and volatile chocolate and egg pricing .
- Reported center‑of‑the‑plate pounds decreased ~1.3% YoY; attrition of a high‑volume, low‑margin commodity poultry program lowered reported sales by ~0.7% YoY (ex‑attrition, center‑of‑the‑plate pounds +3%)—a near‑term volume headwind .
- EBITDA (Street) lens: EBITDA of $41.1M trailed S&P consensus mean ($45.2M*), reflecting margin pressure and mix; however, adjusted EBITDA was $47.5M .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Financial Results
Multi-Quarter Performance (oldest → newest)
Beat/Miss vs S&P Global Consensus
Segment and Category Snapshot (Q1 2025)
KPIs and Balance Sheet/Liquidity
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “A few highlights from the first quarter include 8.7% growth in net sales… Specialty sales were up 10.7%… placement growth of 7.7%… specialty case growth of 5.7%… Pounds in center‑of‑the‑plate were approximately 1.3% lower… Excluding this attrition, total center‑of‑the‑plate pounds grew 3% higher than prior year first quarter” — Christopher Pappas .
- “Excluding the impact of the Texas cross-sell growth, aggregate specialty inflation was approximately 3.1% and overall inflation… approximately 3%… chocolate and eggs remained elevated” — Jim Leddy .
- “Tariffs… still a small percentage of our overall business… we have many alternative sources… diversified our supply chain… we buy a tremendous amount in the U.S.” — Christopher Pappas .
- “We’ve moderated our CapEx… NW project complete end of year or early ’26; NJ/Philadelphia towards end of summer… using technology and AI… build smaller buildings and make them more efficient” — Management .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariffs: Management comfortable; diversified sourcing, suppliers likely to share tariff burden; freight not tariffed .
- Demand: April tracking normal; resilience across upscale dining; some midweek softness in Las Vegas, offsets elsewhere (clubs/outdoor) .
- Texas cross-sell: Hardie’s integration increased average revenue per case ~12%; ex-cross-sell, overall inflation ~3% .
- Center-of-the-Plate attrition: Exiting low-margin commodity poultry program impacted reported volume and sales (~-0.7% YoY), but improves route profitability and capacity redeployment longer-term .
- Middle East: Strong growth; new facility opened end-Dec 2024; performance better than expectations .
- Guidance tone: Slight raise to low end; conservatism maintained given macro/tariff uncertainties and strong H2’24 comps .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 vs Street: Revenue $950.7M vs $926.6M* (beat), EPS $0.25 vs $0.195* (beat), EBITDA $41.1M vs $45.2M* (miss vs EBITDA consensus; adjusted EBITDA actual $47.5M) .
- Prior quarters context: Q4 2024 revenue $1,033.6M vs $1,003.2M* (beat), EPS $0.55 vs $0.507* (beat); Q1 2024 revenue $874.5M vs $833.3M* (beat), EPS $0.15 vs $0.070* (beat) .
- FY 2025 Street: Revenue ~$4.10B*, EBITDA ~$251.5M*—Street sits slightly above the company’s guidance midpoints; low-end raise and resilient demand may keep top-line estimates firm to higher, while category cost volatility (chocolate/eggs) and mix suggest caution on EBITDA margins.
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue/EPS beat with strong cash generation and improved operating leverage; margin headwinds are category-specific and being managed (specialty margin up; center-of-the-plate compressed) .
- FY25 guidance tightened upward at the low end (sales, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA), signaling confidence despite tariff/macro noise; fully diluted share count guide (46.3–47.0M) sets expectations for EPS math .
- Mix and elevated chocolate/egg pricing drove EBITDA (GAAP) below Street; however, adjusted EBITDA trends (+18% YoY) and sequential pricing stability support medium-term margin recovery .
- Strategic pruning of low-margin business (commodity poultry) should enhance route profitability and capacity utilization; expect near-term volume optics to mask underlying quality improvement .
- Digital adoption (58% online) and technology/AI-driven facility efficiency are structural drivers of productivity and ROI; watch project milestones (NJ/Philly summer ’25; NW late ’25/early ’26) .
- Demand resilience across upscale and suburban dining, cruise lines, and clubs supports H1 trajectory; spot softness (Las Vegas midweek) is offset by broader strength .
- Near-term trading: beat-and-raise (low end) setup with manageable tariff narrative; medium-term thesis: share gains in specialty, disciplined CapEx and tech leverage, and diversification (Middle East) underpin growth with improving efficiency .