CI
Chewy, Inc. (CHWY)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Chewy delivered Q4 FY2024 (ended Feb 2, 2025) net sales of $3.247B (+14.9% y/y) and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.28, with both revenue and EPS exceeding Wall Street consensus; adjusted EBITDA was $124.5M with a 3.8% margin .
- Autoship sales rose 21.2% y/y to $2.617B and reached 80.6% of net sales, while active customers returned to growth (+2.1% y/y to 20.5M) and NSPAC increased to $578 (+4.1% y/y) .
- FY2025 guidance points to 6–7% net sales growth (ex-53rd week), adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.4–5.7%, and Q1 adjusted diluted EPS of $0.30–$0.35; management expects minimal tariff impact and capex of ~1.5–2% of net sales .
- Sponsored ads scaled to ~1% of net sales and were the largest driver of gross margin improvement in 2024; first-party ad platform and offsite expansion are expected to further support margin trajectory .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Returned to active customer growth for the first time in eight quarters (20.5M, +2.1% y/y), supported by improved marketing funnel, app conversion, and internal bidding models: “we invested ~15% higher in Q4 marketing spend… cost per gross adds increased less than 2%… we added over 400,000 customers in Q4” .
- Gross margin expanded to 28.5% (+30 bps y/y), driven primarily by sponsored ads and premium mix, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 4.8% for FY2024 (+150 bps y/y) .
- Autoship strength: sales +21.2% y/y in Q4, 80.6% of net sales, providing subscription-like predictability; management expects continued share gains and margin expansion in FY2025 .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP diluted EPS declined y/y to $0.05 (from $0.07) and net margin fell to 0.7% (−40 bps y/y), reflecting higher share-based compensation and taxes in the quarter .
- Gross margin performance was “as expected” but modestly below some external expectations, with Q4 showing a slower pace vs prior quarters; management still expects 2025 expansion from similar drivers (sponsored ads, mix, OpEx leverage) .
- Sequentially, revenue stepped down from Q4 to Q1 (seasonality), and free cash flow in Q1 was $48.7M vs $156.6M in Q4; management flagged typical quarterly margin seasonality and timing of investments in 2025 .
Financial Results
Quarterly Trend (Q4 FY2024 → Q1 FY2025 → Q2 FY2025)
Q4 FY2024 vs Prior Year and vs Estimates
Footnote: *Values retrieved from S&P Global. Consensus EPS based on “Primary EPS Consensus Mean”; consensus revenue based on “Revenue Consensus Mean.” [GetEstimates]
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Topline growth and profitability exceeded the high-end of our guidance ranges for both the fourth quarter and full year 2024... strong active customer growth, and compelling Autoship customer loyalty.” — Sumit Singh, CEO .
- “We expect to expand adjusted EBITDA margin once again in 2025... increasingly confident in our ability to reach our long-term adjusted EBITDA margin target of 10%.” — Sumit Singh .
- “Sponsored ads... reached approximately 1% of net sales... largest contributor to year-over-year gross margin improvement.” — Sumit Singh .
- “We will be providing supplemental information regarding adjusted diluted EPS expectations... Q1 2025 adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $0.30 to $0.35.” — David Reeder, CFO .
- “First-party software [ads]... enables video, self-serve onboarding, and offsite ads; full speed ahead.” — David Reeder .
Q&A Highlights
- Active customer drivers: Marketing funnel integration, improved bidding models, app conversion; ~15% higher Q4 marketing spend with <2% increase in cost per gross adds and ~400k net adds .
- Gross margin expectations: Q4 played out as expected; 2025 EBITDA margin growth to mirror 2024’s drivers (sponsored ads, mix, SG&A leverage) .
- Automation: Overall automation >50% of volume; Houston ramp progressing; target 70–80% over near to medium term .
- Advertising & marketing: Maintain 6–7% of net sales in 2025; quarterly cadence can vary based on ROI/timing .
- Hard goods strength: Broad-based outperformance (leashes, collars, tech, beds, toys) driven by improved site/app experiences and new customer file .
- Capex: 1.5–2% of net sales in 2025; incremental spend towards pharmacy capacity and vet clinics; FC capacity stable .
Estimates Context
- Q4 FY2024 (ended Feb 2, 2025) beats: Revenue $3.247B vs $3.197B consensus; Adjusted diluted EPS $0.28 vs $0.205 consensus; 14 EPS estimates and 24 revenue estimates supported consensus formation [GetEstimates].
- Implications: Consensus likely needs to raise outer-quarter margin expectations given ad platform transition to first-party and offsite expansion, and persistent Autoship/share gains; management guided FY2025 adjusted EBITDA margin to 5.4–5.7% .
Footnote: Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Chewy beat Q4 consensus on both revenue and adjusted EPS, with gross margin expanding y/y and Autoship mix rising to 80.6% — reinforcing a durable, subscription-like revenue base [GetEstimates].
- Active customers returned to growth, aided by improved marketing/app conversion and vet clinics, supporting sustained net adds across 2025 .
- First-party ad platform and offsite capabilities should underpin further gross margin gains; sponsored ads are ~1% of net sales today with long-term potential up to ~3% .
- FY2025 outlook (6–7% revenue growth ex-53rd week, 5.4–5.7% adjusted EBITDA margin, Q1 adj. diluted EPS $0.30–$0.35) suggests continued margin expansion despite seasonality and investment timing .
- Capex focus on pharmacy and vet clinics; FCF conversion ~80% of adjusted EBITDA enables reinvestment and capital return flexibility .
- Hard goods recovery and premium category mix accretion bolster margin narrative; minimal tariff headwinds embedded in guidance .
- Near-term trading: Positive setup on margin trajectory and customer growth; watch quarterly ad mix/seasonality and any deviations in sponsored ads ramp or automation utilization .
Additional Relevant Press Releases for Q4 FY2024 Window
- Conference call announcement (Mar 3, 2025) with reporting timeline and investor access links .
- Q1 FY2025 results (Jun 11, 2025) showing continued top-line growth and margin progress .
- Q2 FY2025 results (Sep 10, 2025) highlighting gross margin improvement and rising Autoship mix .