Colliers International Group - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to the Colliers International Q4 year-end investor conference call. Today's call is being recorded. Legal counsel requires us to advise that the discussion scheduled to take place today may contain forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from any future results, performance, or achievements contemplated in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the company's annual information form, as filed in the Canadian Securities Administrators, and in the company's annual report on Form 40-F, as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Today is February 8, 2024.

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Global Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jay Hennick. Please go ahead, sir.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to the Q4 conference call. I'm Jay Hennick, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the company. Joining me today is Chris McLernon, Chief Executive Officer of our Real Estate Services business, and of course, Christian Mayer, our Chief Financial Officer. This call is being webcast and can be accessed in the investor relations section of our website, where you can also find the presentation slide deck. In the Q4, Colliers experienced robust revenue growth in its high-value, recurring service lines. Over the past five years, Colliers has strategically transformed into a more diversified professional services company by adding significant recurring revenue platforms, such as Investment Management and engineering and project management.

Today, more than 70% of our earnings comes from these recurring services, providing our company with more balance, more resilience, and more predictability than ever, and similar in many ways to other highly diversified global professional service companies. Throughout the year, we observed industry-wide declines in one segment of our business, our transaction segment, our Capital Markets business. However, we expect a return to higher transaction velocity in the latter part of this year as interest rates and credit conditions hopefully stabilize. In the interim, pricing for most real estate assets continue to adjust as buyers and sellers try to find equilibrium that they need to transact business. With our nearly 30-year track record of creating substantial shareholder value, Colliers is poised for continued success.

Anticipating a rise in transaction revenue later this year, and supported by a very strong pipeline for new growth prospects, we are more excited than ever about the future. With that, let me turn things over to Chris McLernon to discuss some highlights on the services side. Following that, Christian will provide his financial report, and then we'll open things up for questions. Chris?

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Thank you, Jay, and good morning. I'm proud of the results that Colliers Real Estate Services delivered in the Q4 and the full year. Despite industry-wide headwinds, we have become more resilient than ever, demonstrating the strengths of our highly diversified professional services platform by both service line and by geography. Our Outsourcing and Advisory business saw a 10% revenue growth in the Q4, and for the full year, has grown 11%, led by engineering, project management, and property management. Our engineering and project management pipelines are filled with a balanced mix of public and private sector clients that want to work with us because of our expertise and ability to provide integrated solutions.

Additionally, the growth of our property management business has been driven by strong portfolio retention and expansion within our existing client base, as well as the addition of new clients due to receiverships in key markets. We expect the growth rate for these high-value services to remain resilient over the long term. As mentioned, transaction volumes remained subdued during the quarter because of interest rate volatility, tighter lending standards, and pricing mismatch between real estate buyers and sellers. However, with expectations of interest rates stabilizing, we have greater confidence that transaction velocity will improve in the H2 of this year. Importantly, during this slowdown, we have continued to invest in our business, filling gaps, taking market share, and top-grading leadership. Having been with Colliers for 35 years, I am especially proud of our enterprising professionals and our culture, the bedrock of our success.

I'm pleased to share that we have been named among the World's Top Companies for Women by Forbes, in addition to our inclusion on Forbes' World's Best Employers list. I'll now turn the call over to Christian to provide more details on our financials.

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Thank you, Chris, and good morning. I'll provide some additional commentary on our consolidated results, our financial outlook for 2024, and our balance sheet. Please note that all references to revenue growth made on this call are expressed in local currency-

... and that the non-GAAP measures discussed here today are as defined in the materials accompanying this call. In the Q4, revenues were $1.2 billion, flat when compared to the same quarter last year and in line with our expectations for the quarter. Our recurring Outsourcing and Advisory and Investment Management service lines each reported robust revenue growth, predominantly internally generated. Leasing revenue declined modestly across all asset classes. Capital Markets revenue declined 16% in its seasonally strongest quarter, on top of a 43% decline reported in Q4 of last year, with transaction sentiment continuing to be impacted by interest rate volatility and availability of credit. On an overall basis, our internal revenues declined 2%.

Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA for the Q4 was $198 million, down 2% relative to the prior year, with margins at 16.1% versus 16.6% in the prior year quarter. The margin reduction was attributable primarily to service mix, which, with a decline in higher-margin capital markets revenues, not fully offset by our ongoing cost control efforts. We achieved cost savings of $28 million during the Q4 and $94 million for the full year. We have extended our cost control efforts into 2024 to match the duration of the expected transactional revenue downturn, but the beneficial year-over-year impact of this has been largely realized. Our initial financial outlook for 2024 reflects our best information, given the ongoing challenges in transaction market conditions.

For the H1 of the year, we expect Capital Markets and Leasing transaction volumes to be roughly flat to 2023. In the second half, we anticipate year-over-year increases in activity, particularly in Capital Markets, coinciding with our expectations of stabilization in interest rates and an improvement in credit conditions. In our recurring service lines, we are expecting mid- to high single-digit revenue growth. Investment Management fundraising for 2023 totaled $3 billion, given the difficult market backdrop. We continue to see strong interest in our alternative investing strategies, which we expect will accelerate fundraising for 2024 to between $5 billion and $8 billion. Our Adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to outpace revenue growth as we gain operating leverage from the Capital Markets recovery, as well as the benefit of additional assets under management in our higher-margin Investment Management operations.

Adjusted earnings per share is expected to exceed EBITDA growth as interest expense starts to moderate from both debt paydown and lower floating rates, as well as a reduction in the non-controlling interest share of earnings as our fully owned transactional operations rebound. Turning to our balance sheet, our financial leverage ratio, defined as Net Debt to Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA, was 2.2 times at the end of 2023. For 2024, we expect leverage to rise modestly in the first half due to seasonal working capital usage, then to decline to between 1.5 and 2 times by the end of the year, assuming no significant acquisitions. That concludes my prepared remarks. I would now like to open the call for questions. Operator, can you please open the line?

Operator (participant)

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your touchtone phone. You will then hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. If you would like to withdraw from the question queue, simply press star followed by two. If you're using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Please go ahead and press star one now if you do have a question. Your first question will be from Stephen MacLeod at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Stephen MacLeod (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Great, thank you. Good morning, guys.

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Good morning.

Stephen MacLeod (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Morning. Just wanted to circle around on a couple of things. Just with respect to the outlook, you reiterated confidence in a return to transaction velocity in H2. And just wondering if you can give a little bit of color about sort of what your clients and customers are telling you about that to give you strong visibility into that outlook.

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Yeah, sure, Steve. It's Chris here. So I think the first thing is we've had 18 months of a really challenging period for capital markets. We're starting to see some optimism and sentiment rising in real estate investment, and clients are shifting from, you know, having discussions to making decisions as there's a clearer outlook to interest rates mid-year. So, you know, we're seeing assets come to market with more realistic valuations as well. So what we're seeing, I think, going forward is a gradual return and then picking up velocity in the H2 of the year.

Stephen MacLeod (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Okay, that's great. And are there any specific regional areas or asset classes that are, you know, more robust in terms of activity than others at this point?

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

... Yeah, I'd say, you know, investors are looking at the industrial logistics. You still have some strong fundamentals behind that with e-commerce and onshoring. There is a low vacancy, however, it has crept up from, say, 2% to 4%-5% in most markets. But there's still a thesis there behind industrial logistics, so there's demand around the world for that product. I'd also say in the living sector, student housing, build to rent, senior housing, because of the demographics and shortage of housing. And then thirdly, I'd say prime A office, you know, where tenants are looking to flight to quality. You know, they're looking for central business district locations, great transit, great amenities, ESG credentials. So those are the things that are in demand in the marketplace today.

Stephen MacLeod (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Great. Thanks, Chris. And then just turning to the high-value O&A business and outlook. Just wondering, I mean, Chris, you have a little bit of color on the prepared remarks around, like, project management, portfolio management-- or sorry, project management, engineering and property management. You know, just curious if you can, if you can give maybe by each subsector within outsourcing and advisory, sort of what you're seeing and how you expect that to evolve through the year, and where you're seeing notable pockets of strength.

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Sure. So, let's talk about project management first. You know, we're seeing some strength in a very strong business in Canada. India, we're the market leader there, and, you know, India's got a GDP of about 6.5%. So we're taking advantage of that and doing a lot of new corporate campuses there. We're seeing strength in our Dutch business and our Polish business, from a project management standpoint. Property management, across the board, you know, we're picking up, you know, extending the portfolio from our existing clients, winning new clients. So I think that's, you know, universal around the world, that property management's going well.

And then, on the engineering side of things, you know, we've got some long-term contracts, and there's a great book of business going forward, and it's balanced between private and public sectors.

Stephen MacLeod (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Great. Thanks for that, color, Chris. I'll turn it back to the line. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question will be from Daryl Young at Stifel. Please go ahead.

Daryl Young (Managing Director)

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Stephen MacLeod (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Good morning.

Daryl Young (Managing Director)

Jay, just in your opening remarks, you made reference to a robust pipeline of new opportunities, and I'm just wondering if you can give a bit more color around this. And I think in the past, around the 2025 plan, you mentioned there might be additional verticals needed later in the plan to achieve it. So I'm just kinda trying to bridge the robust pipeline of new opportunities with this outlook and the 2025 plan.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. So, it's a great question, and for those long-term shareholders of our company, they'll know that acquisition growth is a key part of our overall growth strategy. We have a full pipeline of opportunities right now, probably fuller than we've had in a long time. They are, however, in line with our existing platforms. But they're bigger, they're more diverse geographically, they fill some significant gaps. There's lots of leverage to be generated from them. We don't, you know, they're not at a point where we've tied anything down, but as you would know, Daryl, it takes a long time to build relationships. We look for specific targets that we can partner with the operating management team, particularly in markets where we see huge growth opportunities.

So we're very excited about many things that we've got on our plate right now, and, you know, we're hoping to be able to convert those over the next 12 or 18 months. But they, for the most part, would all be in existing areas, mostly recurring. As I think about it, most of them are recurring. You know, the lion's share is recurring. There's lots of blocking and tackling existing business units, filling gaps across the world in base parts of our business, in brokerage, in Capital Markets, and a variety of other things. But for the lion's share of our opportunities, as I think through the pipeline, it's recurring revenue segments, virtually across the board.

Daryl Young (Managing Director)

Okay, great. That's great color. Thanks. And then flipping to the Capital Markets side, results were, I'd say, impressive in my mind, particularly against some of the industry data that we were looking at. Could you maybe just give us a bit of color on where those market share wins are coming from? And is it a function of the people adds you've done across the last few years of the downturn, or is it asset classes or anything there?

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Yeah, I can give you one example. You know, we've had a record year in terms of recruiting in the U.S. The Colliers brand is really resonating in the marketplace. And if you look at the RCA volumes, as an example, they're down 41% in the U.S., and our sales is only down 25%. So that would show that we're having market share there.

Daryl Young (Managing Director)

Gotcha. Okay. And then one last one just around EMEA and the margin trends there. A nice recovery here in Q4 versus the first nine months of the year. Is that something you expect to hold across the year, and is that sort of structural costs that have come out of that platform?

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Yeah, Daryl, I mean, as you know, from history, Q4 is a very strong quarter in EMEA, and a lot of transactional activity happens in Q4, and historically, the lion's share of EBITDA is generated in Q4. That was again the trend this year. I do expect going forward, we will have a stronger EBITDA performance throughout the year, given the expected rebound in activity levels, as well as cost actions that have been taken in that region to adjust to those lower activity levels.

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

The other thing I can add is that Germany and the Nordics were specifically a challenging year last year in terms of Capital Markets. It's highly transactional for us, and, you know, it's something we're working on in terms of balancing the business. Some of those markets in the cities in Germany were down 80%. So, you know, we expect some activity to come back, and it won't be as extreme as last year. So definitely improving in Europe in 2024.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

A lot of that has to do, I guess, with the geopolitical circumstances, particularly around Germany and some of the other markets in Europe. But we are seeing some green shoots in those markets right now.

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Some green shoots, yes.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Green shoots.

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Yes.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Green shoots.

Daryl Young (Managing Director)

Okay, terrific. I'll get back in the queue, and thanks very much, guys.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Daryl.

Operator (participant)

Next question will be from Jimmy Shan at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jimmy Shan (Managing Director and Real Estate Research)

Thanks. So first, maybe just a couple of clarification on the guidance. The $5 billion-$8 billion of additional AUM in 2024, I'm assuming that's fee-paying AUM? And then, that's one. And the second one would be, would there be any-

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, so-

Jimmy Shan (Managing Director and Real Estate Research)

- baked into your guidance?

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Okay. So, Jimmy, the first question, the fee-paying AUM, the fundraising that we will do is predominantly in closed-end funds, and that will generate fees on that capital that's committed. So, it will be predominantly fee-paying capital. And secondly, there are no new acquisitions baked into our guidance, our outlook for 2024. There's a small amount of lap over from acquisitions completed in 2023 that's in the outlook, but nothing new.

Jimmy Shan (Managing Director and Real Estate Research)

Okay, great. And then just on the investment management business, infrastructure and credit seem to be where LPs want to allocate dollars. And when I look at your AUM pie chart, you do have 25% exposure to those two spaces. I'm just kind of curious as to how you're looking to grow these two strategies, if you are looking to grow them at all, and whether you're looking to grow organically or maybe add a new platform in the pipeline, the healthy pipeline that you made reference to earlier.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Well, you know, as we have historically, we've shown strong internal growth, particularly in Investment Management and infrastructure alternatives have been key parts of our growth. We have a small credit business that we inherited as part of one of the platform acquisitions. And so, that has grown very nicely for that platform. But we'd like to add credit to our overall family. It's a key component of our longer-term strategy. Number one, there's tremendous synergies between our existing business and having a credit platform. So, you know, we're actively looking to add credit in a more significant way, primarily through acquisition.

But if no acquisition comes through, we'll continue to grow our existing credit business, which is operated by an exceptional group of professionals and has some very interesting opportunities to accelerate its growth on its own. But when you look at the pie chart, it is still a small piece of our overall AUM.

Jimmy Shan (Managing Director and Real Estate Research)

Okay, great. And then, sorry, just to follow up then, in the pipeline of the different recurring businesses that you're looking at, how are the multiples or like, how is valuation? We've seen fairly big, healthy multiples in the private market for investment management platforms. How are those multiples looking today?

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Well, that's a great question. The multiples have gone up significantly, especially for the quality assets that we're looking at. It's not just in the IM space, I think it's in professional services as well. One of the things that I think people overlook with Colliers is that we are very much a highly diversified global professional services business with an engineering business that is circa $1 billion. If you look at the peer set in that space, our margins are as good or better. We do have a global growth platform. There's multiple opportunities to grow that business, and those companies trade at much higher valuations, obviously, than Colliers does.

You know, we have an environment where valuations have gone up, but the reverse is that the types of deals that we are looking for are partnership deals, and they bring with them strong leadership teams that have stronger internal growth characteristics. And there are many, and they are global. And so, you know, as many people know that have followed our story for many years, we've created value one step at a time. And we continue to think that there's exceptional opportunities for us to continue to add value to our business. And probably reposition our company in some way to one that is much more highly diversified, high value, more recurring revenue, global in nature.

And it's nice to see some of the peers in the traditional business start to add engineering to their mix of business as well. So there's lots of those kinds of factors that are swirling around, which we consider to be very positive to our longer-term strategy, which we've outlined in our five-year plan, among others.

Jimmy Shan (Managing Director and Real Estate Research)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question will be from Himanshu Gupta at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Himanshu Gupta (Director, Equity Research Analyst - REITs)

Thank you, and good morning, and, thanks for taking my question. So my question is on the leasing revenue. How has your outlook for leasing revenue changed compared to the last three months? I mean, is leasing turning out to be much weaker or slower compared to what you thought, you know, say, three months ago?

Christian Mayer (CFO)

So, Himanshu, I'll try to answer that, and, Chris, maybe you can jump in.

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Sure.

Christian Mayer (CFO)

But our Leasing was down 5%-6% in the Q4 of 2023. And, you know, looking ahead, we expect Leasing to be roughly flat in the beginning of 2024, and maybe up slightly for the full year. So, you know, it's gonna be steady. It has been relatively steady, but we're not expecting any strong rebound in that particular service line in the near future.

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Yeah. In having a global business, there are gonna be bright spots. If you look at Canada, we are up 5%, UK, 11%, India, 11%, and LATAM, 27%. You know, leases come up every three, five, seven years. It's a regular business. You know, people wanna transact. There is a, you know, the desire to upgrade and move into top-quality buildings to make sure that employees wanted to move back into coming into the office. So, you know, as Christian said, you know, we're looking at middle single-digit growth.

Himanshu Gupta (Director, Equity Research Analyst - REITs)

Got it. Thank you. And maybe a follow-up. You know, your European leasing was positive in Q4. What led to that, like, positive growth there?

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Can you repeat that question, Himanshu?

Himanshu Gupta (Director, Equity Research Analyst - REITs)

Yeah. So, if I look at, you know, the leasing revenue by region, so if I see, you know, your, Americas and Asia were down, but Europe was actually up on year-over-year basis. So just wondering, is there anything which is driving European leasing revenues to be higher?

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Yeah, I can't think of anything per se, in particular in Europe. Chris, unless you-

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

No, not particularly in Europe. You know, the one thing that over the last couple of years is that industrial leasing has become stronger for us. You know, pre-pandemic, it was probably at around 20%-25%, and now it's up to 40% of the leasing revenue. So, you know, you're seeing higher rents in industrial and logistics, so that's translating into higher fees. And then also, there's been such a great demand for retailers and the e-commerce and the onshoring that it's been quite a successful service line for us.

Himanshu Gupta (Director, Equity Research Analyst - REITs)

Okay. Thank you. And maybe just last question on Investment Management, IM. Was there any fundraising done this quarter? Or, you know, and was that offset by any redemptions, this quarter?

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Yeah, Himanshu, we did raise capital in the Q4, as we expected, to do around $750 million in the Q4. And we also had some modest redemption activity in the Q4, as well.

Himanshu Gupta (Director, Equity Research Analyst - REITs)

... Got it. Okay. And maybe just last one, the AUM expected growth of $5 billion-$8 billion, is it going to be first half driven or second half driven? Any visibility there?

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Should be, it should be, across the full year. And just to clarify, the $5 billion-$8 billion is the fundraising we expect for the year. So AUM growth will be, you know, similar to or higher than that number, because AUM includes leverage on capital deployed.

Himanshu Gupta (Director, Equity Research Analyst - REITs)

Got it. Thank you, guys, and I'll turn back.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question will be from Stephen Sheldon at William Blair. Please go ahead.

Matt Sytchev (Analyst)

Hey, everyone, you have Matt Filek on for Stephen Sheldon. What can you share about your overall producer headcount in both Capital Markets and Leasing? And how do you feel about your positioning when volumes start to improve?

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Yeah, I don't think we're going to share the exact numbers on headcount, but I can tell you that, and then Chris mentioned this, that we have a stronger headcount than ever, particularly in our US business, where we've had significant recruiting success over the past 18 months. I think that those trends are strongest in the US, but are also true across our operations around the world.

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Yeah, we have a global initiative to increase the market share in capital markets around the world. So, we are out strategically looking at top talent in all regions. But I would say that there has been a stronger emphasis in the U.S., which is the biggest market and the biggest market share opportunity for us to grow.

Matt Sytchev (Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. And then how does the current lending environment compare to what you were seeing toward the end of last year? Just curious how things have trended, with respect to the lending environment over the near term.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

You know, the lending environment is not really clear because you've got different lenders now and new lenders entering the marketplace. For example, there's a lot of private capital entering the marketplace. You've got smaller banks that are under pressure from regulators. But I would say, generally speaking, the fact that interest rates have... You know, going into 2023, there was no clarity on where the rates might go. I think there's a general view now that the rates have topped out and might start coming down, which creates more certainty in the lending market throughout.

The other factor around the lending market, generally, is that those that are under pressure are going to start to take action, whereas in the past, they were delaying their action. So that creates more transaction activity, obviously for us, because people are encouraged to transact. And so I think with clarity or more clarity around rates and the hope that rates might come down a bit, we're in an election year, we'll see what happens.

But with that happening, with more clarity that rates might come down more than would go up, with banks being more active about dealing with loans that are under some duress, all of that should lend to more Capital Markets activity towards the middle to the end of this year, number one. You know, fortunately for Colliers, we invested very heavily in building a very significant debt capital practice, where we have some 150 to 175 debt placement professionals across the U.S. in particular.

They are very busy meeting with clients and discussing various financing options that we hope will translate into transactions, whether they are capital transactions on the sale of a business, of a property, or the refinancing of a property or both. So we're quite excited about how quickly things can turn once there's certainty around debt. But at this point, there's positive signs, but we're not seeing significant momentum just yet.

Matt Sytchev (Analyst)

Got it. Very helpful color, Jay. And then lastly, just wanted to circle back on leasing. What are you seeing in terms of lease duration for office and then more broadly? Just curious if there are any signs that tenants are becoming more comfortable signing longer-term lease commitments.

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

I think most occupiers, tenants are looking for flexibility, but it is market-driven. If you've got a market that has a low vacancy of-

... 1%-2%, it's really the landlord that's gonna determine, you know, the lease length. But I think we're still looking at, you know, traditional 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-year leases, but it's really gonna be market dependent and asset class dependent.

Maxim Sytchev (Managing Director, Equity Research - Industrials)

Got it. Thank you, everyone.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question will be from Keegan Carl at Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Dev Kaur (Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Just on the Investment Management side, the FP AUM declined slightly in Q4. You said there were some redemptions in the quarter, but was the AUM decline driven by outflows or valuation marks?

Christian Mayer (CFO)

And there were some modest valuation marks taken, as well, there, as well as some redemption activity. But very modest-

Dev Kaur (Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful.

Christian Mayer (CFO)

I mean...

Dev Kaur (Analyst)

Just a quick follow-up. What were the outflows from the traditional real estate funds or alternatives?

Christian Mayer (CFO)

The traditional funds.

Dev Kaur (Analyst)

Got it. Thanks, that's helpful. I'll get back in the queue.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question will be from Frederic Bastien at Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Frederic Bastien (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Infrastructure & Construction)

Hi, good morning.

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Hi, guy.

Frederic Bastien (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Infrastructure & Construction)

Hey, guys. Your margins in the Americas region held up quite nicely in the back half of the year, which really speaks to the solid work you did right-sizing your cost structure. How should we think about the margin profile evolving over the course of 2024 as you turn your focus on growth again and really start loosening the belt? Thanks.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. Hi, Frederic. That's a, that's a good question. You know, we've taken, particularly in the Americas, very aggressive cost control actions through 2023. And as we look ahead, we've also taken action to, on recruiting, which has been, a cost that we've, we've borne, through this period. But as we look ahead, you know, we expect, obviously revenues to, to grow, in the Americas, both on the outsourcing business, as well as in, capital markets, and to a lesser extent, leasing. Margins will, improve, somewhat, but we do have, some variable costs coming back into the business, and also some incentive compensation will come-- that'll come back into the business. So expecting, you know, a modest, margin, improvement in 2024, across the Americas.

The only other thing I'd add to that is, you know, any acquisition growth, particularly in the recurring segments of our business, would have higher margins naturally, so the mix might change.

Frederic Bastien (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Infrastructure & Construction)

Mix might change.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Yeah.

Frederic Bastien (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Infrastructure & Construction)

Right. No, no, correct. I was just more curious about capital markets and leasing, that type of the brokerage business, but you provided some great color here. Thanks, that's all I have. Looks like, you know, obviously positive outlook going forward. It's nice to see and good luck on the year.

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Thanks, Fred.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Frederic.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your touchtone phone. Your next question will be from Maxim Sytchev at National Bank. Please go ahead.

Maxim Sytchev (Managing Director, Equity Research - Industrials)

Hi, good morning, gentlemen.

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Hi.

Maxim Sytchev (Managing Director, Equity Research - Industrials)

Jay, Christian, if you don't mind maybe talking a little bit about some cross-selling traction successes now that you have obviously a bigger portion coming from engineering and outsourcing services, and they are a bigger part of the overall portfolio. Just maybe any KPIs you can share with us that would be helpful. Thanks.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

There's cross-selling all over the place. You know, as we get bigger, the actual examples are, you know, smaller in dollar value, but very significant cross-selling between our engineering segments and our real estate segments. Because we're really, in most of our engineering, particularly around property level, we're helping developers set the land up for zoning, putting in the necessary support services so that our developer clients can build houses, can build high-rises, and so on. And so it gives us a great opportunity to stay longer with the existing client. That's one. That's just one example.

The other example that just keeps continuing to bear fruit is from a project management standpoint, when our developer clients want to build a multifamily building or an office building, not happening as much, particularly in North America, but there's lots of medical office, there's lots of seniors, there's lots of other infrastructure assets. They need third-party project management firms to manage the construction project on behalf of the owner to ensure that the costs are in accordance with the budget, and if not, there's immediate action taken.

We've enjoyed some great cross-selling opportunities between our project management clients and our developer clients in areas such as that, and we think it's gonna continue to accelerate because construction is becoming much more costly, much more sophisticated. There's a lot of value engineering that's happening. So the partnership between an exceptional project manager and a developer becomes more important than ever. So, you know, as Colliers continues to evolve as an organization, our philosophy is to move upmarket and to be a more valued partner to our clients that are either developing and/or renovating, and/or upgrading their buildings. You know, the same thing applies with ESG and the initiatives that we have around ESG.

And, somebody has to analyze the building and determine how to bring the building up to a better standard from an ESG standpoint, or as Chris McLernon mentioned earlier, to be more attractive as an office building, for example, to leasing clients. Well, once that determination has been made and capital has been allocated, somebody has to do the work, somebody has to estimate what happens, somebody has to manage the construction project. Generally, there's a long tenure to that. It could be a five-year construction project, it could be a three and a half year construction project or a renovation project of two years. So all of these services that Colliers has entered over the past five years have all been additive from the standpoint of recurring revenue, obviously.

But I think your question is an excellent one, because what it doesn't, what we really haven't articulated as I think about it, is the great synergies that happen between the various component parts of what we do for clients, on the field. And so that's bearing some exceptional fruit for us virtually around the world.

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Just to add to that, you know, Colliers has a culture of collaboration, and I can give you a benchmark. Within the U.S., 20% of the revenues come from collaboration and cross-selling.

Maxim Sytchev (Managing Director, Equity Research - Industrials)

Okay. And is there a figure that you think you'd like to, you know, target over time? Like, obviously, I understand you'll have to do work for kind of external clients, but can the 20% become 30% in 10 years, or how should we think about this?

Chris McLernon (CEO, Real Estate Services | Global)

Yeah, I think it's something that we're always working on, you know, taking a holistic approach with our clients, so selling multiple service lines and what we call as a sticky client, if you can get four or five different service lines. So it's constantly part of what we're trying to offer to our clients. And, you know, 20% is a great benchmark, and if we can improve that, so be it.

Maxim Sytchev (Managing Director, Equity Research - Industrials)

Yeah. Excellent. That's super helpful. Thank you. And then just one last question in terms of sort of discount interest rates. And I'm not trying to sort of belabor it, but when you kind of think about sort of the back half resumption on the transactional side of things, are you looking potentially, I don't know, like at the dot plot and assuming, you know, 5 rate cuts that are necessary to restart the transactional velocity? Do you mind maybe providing a bit of kind of a range of potential outcomes that you are imputing into the guidance, or maybe it's a little meaningless mechanistic from that perspective, just maybe any color there can be super helpful. Thanks.

Christian Mayer (CFO)

Yeah, Max, we're not quite that scientific about it. Obviously, we can't control what the Fed's gonna do, I know, next month or three months from now. But certainly, you know, we gauge market sentiment. We have operators around the world that are talking to clients every day. And as Chris mentioned in his comments, you know, these conversations are turning more positive. We're more engaged than ever with, you know, clients on in looking at transactions that they wanna complete, both on the buy side and on the sell side. So, and it has been an 18-month period of quiet in the market, so there is pent-up demand, and we're seeing it.

That gives us, I think, a reasonable amount of visibility here into the back half of the year and a resumption of some level of activity. I think, you know, it's a relatively modest resumption, and that will hopefully be the catalyst for a more significant rebound in activity in 2025.

Maxim Sytchev (Managing Director, Equity Research - Industrials)

Makes sense. Thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, Mr. Hennick, we have no other questions registered. Please proceed.

Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO)

Well, thank you everyone for joining us on this Q4 Conference Call. We look forward to reporting hopefully positive results in the first quarter and convening another call like this. So thank you for participating, and we'll speak to you soon.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude the conference call. Thank you for your participation, and have a nice day.