Chimera Investment - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 EAD per adjusted diluted share was $0.37, below S&P Global consensus of $0.463; GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.27 as fair value marks and derivative losses offset net interest income. EPS miss vs consensus was driven by negative net unrealized losses on financial instruments and higher transaction expenses tied to HomeXpress closing. Primary EPS Consensus Mean for Q3 was 0.463 vs actual 0.37*.
• Book value per share fell 3.2% QoQ to $20.24 (economic return -1.4% with $0.37 dividend), with management citing steeper curve and tighter non-agency RMBS spreads lifting securitized debt valuations more than loans; BV rebounded ~2.4% in October, per Q&A.
• Portfolio repositioning continued: net $275M of Agency MBS added, first MSR financing receivable completed ($35.5M NAV), and $120M unsecured notes issued; cash ended at $491M ahead of the Oct 1 close of HomeXpress (acquired for ~$240M cash plus ~2.08M shares).
• Management views HomeXpress as earnings-accretive starting Q4 2025 with 2026 after-tax gross earnings contribution guided to $53–$68M at 20–25% ROE, and intends to securitize roughly one deal per quarter without disrupting third‑party relationships.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Closed the HomeXpress acquisition on Oct 1, positioning CIM as a fully integrated mortgage platform across origination, asset management, and permanent capital; CEO: “we are well positioned to execute on our mission to diversify and grow earnings going into year end and into 2026”.
• Liquidity and balance sheet actions: $491M cash at quarter‑end; issued $120M of 8.875% unsecured notes; sold $617M of retained/non‑agency/Agency CMBS IO to release $116M capital, while adding $275M Agency MBS and completing first MSR financing receivable ($35.5M NAV).
• Economic net interest income remained resilient at $68.6M with 5.9% asset yield, 4.5% cost of funds, and 1.4% economic spread; EAD per share of $0.37 was flat YoY vs $0.36 in Q3’24 despite portfolio repositioning.

What Went Wrong

• Book value per share declined 3.2% QoQ to $20.24 (economic return -1.4%), as tightening non‑agency RMBS/steeper curve boosted securitized debt valuations more than loan marks; management described a timing lag in loan price reflection.
• GAAP diluted EPS of -$0.27 was pressured by $(37.0)M net unrealized losses on financial instruments and derivative losses; transaction expenses rose $9.9M tied to HomeXpress closing.
• Revenue (S&P “Revenue”) missed consensus materially (Q3 actual $38.23M vs est. $83.94M*), reflecting lower realized gains and derivative headwinds vs expectations; EPS also missed (0.37 vs 0.463*).

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Greetings. Welcome to Chimera Investment Corporation's Third Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Miyun Sung, Chief Legal Officer. Thank you. You may begin.

Miyun Sung (Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary)

Thank you, Operator, and thank you, everyone, for participating in Chimera's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I'd like to review the Safe Harbor statement. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. These events are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are outlined in the risk factors section in our most recent annual and quarterly SEC filings. Actual events and results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. We encourage you to read the forward-looking statement disclaimers in our earnings release and our quarterly and annual filings. During the call today, we may also discuss non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our SEC filings and earnings supplement for reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures.

Additionally, the content of this conference call may contain time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of the date of this earnings call. We do not undertake and specifically disclaim any obligation to update or revise this information. I will now turn the conference over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Phil Kardis.

Phil Kardis (President and CEO)

Thanks, Miyun. Good morning and welcome to Chimera Investment Corporation's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. It's great to have you with us today. Joining me are Jack Macdowell, our Chief Investment Officer, and Subra Viswanathan, our Chief Financial Officer. After my remarks, Subra will review our results, and then Jack will discuss the portfolio before we open it up for questions. This quarter story doesn't start in ancient Greece. It doesn't involve hedgehogs or foxes, though we remain proud to be a hedgehog. It began this past spring when we learned that HomeXpress Mortgage was for sale. At that point, we weren't looking for an originator. We had just completed our strategic analysis, sharpened our focus, and executed on that clarity with the acquisition of Palisades. That integration went smoothly, proof that discipline and culture matter.

Because Palisades manages assets for third parties who own HomeXpress loans, we knew the high quality of their production. When HomeXpress came to market, we reached out. We had an introductory call with Kyle Walker, its CEO, and members of the senior team. That conversation was the first of many over the ensuing months that confirmed we were not just buying a platform; we were partnering with a team that shares our values and vision. We saw seven key reasons why this acquisition made sense. First, it met our high standard. When we look at a potential acquisition, we ask three questions. Does the management team share our values and vision? Is it profitable and well-run? Can it make the whole greater than the sum of the parts? HomeXpress passed each test. I will discuss profitability, operations, and synergy shortly, but what are our values and visions?

Our values are simple: long-term orientation, high ethical standards, and an insistence on operational excellence. Our vision is to build a company that endures, one where our team members are proud to work. Clients receive tangible value, and shareholders are rewarded for their partnership. That's the standard, and HomeXpress met it. Second, the size and growth of the Non-QM market. While there's not a lot of data on Non-QM originations, we believe such originations have grown every year since 2021, from about 1.1% of total residential mortgage originations in 2021 to an expected 5.1% or more than $100 billion in 2025. That's a roughly five-fold increase in the sector's market share in the last four years. Forecasts for the size of the 2026 Non-QM market range between $110 billion and $150 billion. We like markets with durable tailwinds. Third, the management team.

HomeXpress has an experienced management team that knows how to grow in a disciplined manner, placing quality of production over volume. Fourth, the synergies. The synergies with Palisades and Chimera, we believe, are obvious. Palisades already manages assets for some of the buyers of HomeXpress's loans. By connecting origination and asset management, we can widen that reach to others and support the performance of HomeXpress's loans. While HomeXpress has not had its own securitization program, Chimera is a leader in securitizing residential mortgage loans. We believe that the ability to securitize some of their production at the cost to originate while still satisfying their customer base will provide an additional longer-term source of income. Fifth, expansion runway. Today, HomeXpress originates business purpose loans in 46 states and consumer loans in 42 states.

We plan on adding additional states, including New York, and accelerate the correspondent channel growth alongside the already successful wholesale channels. Sixth, the MSR opportunity. HomeXpress currently sells all loans servicing released. They plan to obtain the servicing license they do not have, which will enable us to grow our own MSR book, both from our production and from purchases from third parties, which will create a hedge for our loan portfolio and recurring income engine. Seventh, agency originations. A small but promising business that adds optionality and balance. Turning to the transaction, we closed the acquisition on October 1st for $267 million. That is the sum of the $630 book value of nearly $120 million, $120 million premium, and about $28 million in stock.

The price will be adjusted based on the 9/30 book value and some other true-ups, which we expect will result in an increase in the purchase price of around $5 million. Importantly, the HomeXpress leadership team remains in place, and we granted retention stock to HomeXpress's employees that vests in three years because ownership builds alignment, and alignment builds results. Let's talk about the numbers. Through September 30th, HomeXpress originated $2.4 billion by UPB, up 36% year-over-year. About 40% consumer, just under 60% business purpose, and the rest agency. For Q4, we expect around $1 billion in originations, yielding expected pre-tax earnings of $15 million-$18 million and after-tax earnings of $13 million-$15 million. That's after the application of our net operating losses. An annualized return on equity of 19%-23%.

For 2026, we project $4 billion-$4.4 billion in originations, pre-tax earnings of $62 million-$80 million, and after-tax earnings of $53 million-$68 million, again, after the application of our NOLs. That's a 20%-25% return on equity. So, looking ahead, what does it all mean? It means we believe HomeXpress is accretive to our earnings. It gives us a new revenue stream, greater diversification, and more recurring income. It accelerates our strategy, growing our assets and fee generation, which we believe will lead to an increase in our dividend-paying ability and total economic return over the long term. We're not just building a bigger company; we're building a better one, one designed for the long term. Now I'll turn it over to Subra to walk you through the financials.

Subra Viswanathan (CFO)

Thank you, Phil. I will review Chimera's financial highlights for the third quarter of 2025. GAAP net loss for the third quarter was $22 million or $0.27 per share. GAAP book value at the end of third quarter was $20.24 per share. For the third quarter, our economic return on GAAP book value was -1.4% based on the quarterly change in book value and the $0.37 third quarter dividend per common share. Year-to-date 2025, our economic return on GAAP book value was 8.3%. On an earnings-available-for-distribution basis, net income for the third quarter was $30 million or $0.37 per share. Our economic net interest income for the third quarter was $69 million. For the third quarter, the yield on average interest-earning assets was 5.9%. Our average cost of funds was 4.5%, and our net interest spread was 1.4%.

Total leverage for the third quarter was 4.8x to 1x, while recourse leverage ended the quarter at 2x to 1x. Recourse leverage increased this quarter as we continue to increase our capital allocation to [ANC RMBS] securities. For liquidity and strategic developments, the company ended the third quarter with $752 million in total cash and unencumbered assets, compared to $561 million at the end of second quarter. During the quarter, we strategically raised liquidity through staggered sales of select assets. We sold $617 million of retained bonds, [non-ANC RMBS], and Agency CMBS, IO positions, releasing $116 million of capital. In addition, we issued $120 million of 8.875% senior unsecured notes due 2030. Net of the underwriting discount and other debt issuance costs, we raised $116 million in capital. The increase in cash balance prepared us with anticipated funds required to close the HomeXpress acquisition, which was finalized on October 1st.

We closed on our acquisition of HomeXpress for $240 million in cash, comprised of an estimated adjusted book value of $120 million. This is subject to certain post-closing adjustments and a cash premium of $120 million, plus the issuance of 277,151 shares of common stock.

Okay. I just wanted to update one remark from Phil's earlier remark. Phil mentioned that the adjusted book value was as of 6/30, but it is actually the adjusted book value as of 8/30. Make that correction. The purchase price that we paid. For liquidity, continuing on, separately during the quarter, we added $275 million of Agency RMBS securities and closed on our initial $38 million MSR investment. For repo and hedging, we had $2.1 billion outstanding repo liabilities secured by the residential credit portfolio. 53% of the outstanding residential credit repo, or $1.1 billion, had a floating rate sensitivity. We maintained $2.2 billion in notional value of various interest rate hedges protecting the repo liabilities. We had $1.3 billion of either non or limited mark-to-market features on our outstanding repo agreements, representing 64% of our secured repo funding for the residential credit portfolio.

On the Agency RMBS side, we had $2.4 billion notional value of interest rate swap, swap futures, and cancelable swaps with varying tenors, protecting against $2.4 billion of outstanding repo liabilities. For the third quarter of 2025, our economic net interest income return on average equity was 10.6%. Our GAAP return on average equity was -0.1%, and our EAD return on average equity was 7.3%. Lastly, compensation, general, administrative, and servicing expenses were higher by $2 million, primarily driven by one-time severance payments. Our transaction expenses were higher by $10 million this quarter, reflecting the cost associated with HomeXpress acquisition. I will now turn the call over to Jack to review our portfolio and investment activity.

Jack Macdowell (Chief Investment Officer)

Thanks, Subra, and good morning, everyone. We had a busy third quarter as the team remained focused on repositioning the portfolio while maintaining elevated levels of cash in preparation for the HomeXpress acquisition. Against this backdrop, the U.S. economy remained mixed but generally resilient. Growth was supported by continued strength in non-residential investment, particularly in artificial intelligence-related infrastructure, equipment, and software, while labor conditions showed gradual signs of cooling. Policy and regulatory developments once again shaped the tone of financial markets. The Federal Reserve shifted from holding the line on restrictive policy to actively easing, cutting the target Fed funds rate by 25 basis points in September. Importantly, the Fed acknowledged that risks had begun to tilt toward labor market conditions rather than inflation alone, reinforcing a market narrative that policy is now oriented toward sustaining growth and employment rather than focusing solely on price stability.

In rates, the curve steepened as front-end yields led the rally. The two-year Treasury declined 11 basis points during the quarter, while the 10-year fell 8, winding the 2-10 spread to 54 basis points. Agency MBS continued to offer attractive carry, even as OAS tightened amid lower volatility and strong demand. Current coupon nominal spreads tightened by 24 basis points versus swaps and 21 basis points versus Treasuries. Primary mortgage rates declined roughly 35 basis points to 6.32%, spurring a rise in refinance activity as a refinance share of applications climbed from 40% in early July to more than 60% in late September. Housing activity improved modestly, though existing home sales at a 4.1 million annual pace remains well below the 27-year average of 5.2 million. Credit markets remained firm. Investment-grade and high-yield corporate spreads tightened 9 and 23 basis points respectively.

Non-Agency RMBS saw strong demand and healthy absorption of supply, with the Non-QM credit curve flattening as AAA spreads tightened in the context of 15 basis points and BBB spreads held steady. In the legacy reperforming loan sector, which represents the majority of our portfolio, AAA and senior unrated bonds tightened by approximately 10 and 25 basis points. Overall, mortgage credit fundamentals remained solid, supported by high homeowner equity, low incidence of default, and near-historic low unemployment. Even so, rising defaults and isolated idiosyncratic events in non-mortgage sectors have prompted heightened investor awareness. Turning to our portfolio, book value declined approximately 3.2% during the quarter, largely driven by the combined effects of tighter Non-Agency RMBS spreads and the rally in short-term rates, each of which lifted the valuation of our securitized debt more significantly than the corresponding gains in our loan portfolio.

We made substantial progress in repositioning the portfolio during the quarter, while also preparing for the HomeXpress acquisition. To put that in context, excluding the Palisades acquisition, we began the year with more than 90% of our economic capital allocated to residential credit, just 4% in Agency MBS, and the remainder in cash. As of October 1st, we are beginning to see a more balanced and diversified portfolio with robust sources of income. The residential credit allocation is now below 70%. Agency MBS has increased to about 17%. MSRs are small but growing at just over 1%. Importantly, we deployed roughly $267 million, or about 13% of our economic portfolio, into the HomeXpress investment. The issuance of $120 million in senior unsecured debt during the quarter allowed us to retain a larger portion of the Agency MBS portfolio in advance of that acquisition.

Our investment strategy remains centered on rotating out of fully valued assets and redeploying capital across opportunities that align with our long-term portfolio construction goals and enhance earnings power. During the quarter, we exited $453 million of retained and non-agency bonds, including senior and subordinate positions, along with the $164 million notional Agency CMBS IO position. These sales released approximately $116 million of net liquidity at a break-even GAAP ROE of just over 7%. We purchased a net $275 million of Agency MBS, settled our previously announced MSR transaction, and increased our cash balance ahead of the HomeXpress closing. This elevated cash balance was a temporary drag on earnings, but we believe that drag will be more than offset by the near-term contributions from HomeXpress, as illustrated on slide nine of the presentation. Our agency pass-through portfolios now stand at just over $2.5 billion across the coupon stack.

Leverage on the agency pass-through book increased modestly to 7.3x from 6.6x during the quarter, with rate and spread sensitivities remaining within risk parameters. We continue to hedge with swaps to maintain tight duration alignment, match our SOFR-based funding, and capture additional carry. These positions continue to deliver high-quality income with levered ROEs in the low to mid-teens. On the credit side, the majority of our portfolio is made up of reperforming loans that exhibit high levels of borrower home equity and over 17 years of seasoning. Loan performance remains stable, with these loans reporting a modest increase in delinquencies of 20 basis points during the quarter. Recourse leverage on the residential credit portfolio declined by approximately $329 million to $2.1 billion, reflecting asset sales and normal course paydowns.

64% of this financing was structured as non-mark-to-market or limited mark-to-market, up from 58% in the second quarter, while the floating rate component declined from 58% to 53%. As discussed last quarter, our interest rate hedging strategy for the residential credit portfolio remains designed to protect earnings power in a rising rate environment while maintaining upside in a declining rate scenario. During the quarter, we added $600 million in 1.5 by two-year swaptions to further hedge our floating rate liability exposure further out the curve. We continue to evaluate opportunities to unlock value and reinvestment capital by exercising call rights on our legacy securitizations. The scope of our review currently includes 18 transactions collateralized by approximately $5.9 billion of loans. At times, we may call these deals and either sell or resecuritize the loans.

These activities can allow us to unlock capital to reinvest in higher return opportunities that drive earnings growth and support our portfolio repositioning efforts. While redeeming debt at par can reduce book value when the debt is valued at a discount, we balance those near-term effects against the benefits of our long-term portfolio objectives. These activities are designed to enhance earnings durability and reinforce the portfolio's resilience across economic, interest rate, and credit environments. Turning to HomeXpress, we're excited to welcome the team as this transaction further diversifies our earnings base, creates synergies with our third-party asset management activities, and supports our long-term portfolio goals by enabling us to retain loans for our own investment and securitization programs. Overall, the third quarter was another transitional period for both the portfolio and the broader business.

We continue to unlock value organically through strategic divestitures, redeployed capital into accretive investments, most notably HomeXpress, diversified our portfolio and sources of income, and enhanced our platform capabilities. We remain focused on executing our strategy, and with the HomeXpress acquisition now closed, we are well-positioned to capture earnings tailwinds heading into the fourth quarter and into 2026. That concludes our prepared remarks. We will now turn the line back to the operator for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the Star keys. One moment, please, for our first questions. Our first questions come from the line of Bose George with KBW. Please proceed with your questions.

Frank Labetti (Equity Research Associate)

Hey, good morning, guys. This is Frank Labetti on for Bose. Congrats on the deal closing as well. First question is on book value. You noted that the change was due to the steeper yield curve and the increase in value of the securitized debt more than the value of the loans. Can you just walk through that and why the loans do not get a similar mark? Is it due to liquidity or, yeah?

Jack Macdowell (Chief Investment Officer)

Yeah, no, it's a good question. Part of it is a lag in just the timing with respect to when we're seeing spreads change in the securitization markets versus when we actually see that propagate down into the loan market. That has one effect. The other piece is the shape of the yield curve. As we saw the two-year rally, 11 basis points, the five-year only 6 basis points. That steepening caused the yields in our securitized debt to decrease more than on the loan side. That has the effect while our loans actually increased in value, the increase in the value of our liabilities increased more. The other piece I would highlight there, we saw spreads tighten across Non-Agency RMBS during the quarter. When you think about what our portfolio is comprised of, it's really reperforming loans.

There is a rated and a non-rated component there. The unrated portion of the RPL market is where we saw the tightest spreads that came in somewhere between 20 and 25 basis points. That represents somewhere between 55% and 60% of our securitized debt. That is what caused the increase in value of our debt, more so than what we saw on the loan side.

Frank Labetti (Equity Research Associate)

Great. That is very helpful. Do we have an update of book for the quarter?

Jack Macdowell (Chief Investment Officer)

Yeah, yeah. Actually, we've seen some of that reverse. Some of that has to do with the timing and seeing some loan activity during the course of October, but we're up about 2.4% through October 31st.

Frank Labetti (Equity Research Associate)

Awesome. Thank you. Just one last one on the deal. Is goodwill $120 million? You noted that the deal was a premium to book. I just want to confirm that?

Subra Viswanathan (CFO)

Yeah. This is Subra. Thanks for the question. The total premium was all the payments above the $120 million book value. Obviously, we have not closed. There will be an adjustment, meaning there are some final adjustments to the book value that will come through as we tune up September. Now, as far as everything is going to be goodwill, that all depends on the purchase accounting. We are going through these numbers right now. A portion of the purchase accounting, we are still evaluating how much of that premium is related to intangibles versus goodwill.

Frank Labetti (Equity Research Associate)

Great. Thank you. That's all from me.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Our next questions come from the line of Trevor Cranston with Citizens JMP. Please proceed with your questions.

Trevor Cranston (Analyst)

Great. Thanks. Good morning. A couple of questions on HomeXpress. First of all, thank you for the projections for Q4 in 2026. That's very helpful. I guess when you guys think about the earnings contribution that you're going to get from HomeXpress, can you talk about how you guys are going to approach that with the dividend? Would you expect to pay out the majority of HomeXpress's earnings as part of the dividend, or do you think a lot of that will be retained to sort of finance future growth in that business? Thanks.

Phil Kardis (President and CEO)

Yeah. Sure. This is Phil. That is a question that we started to address last time. First, as you know, it is a final determination by the board, but we will look at a variety of factors which are related to how much HomeXpress would need to retain to continue to grow. As we want to be able to grow our own asset base, even through securitizations, for example, versus current dividend needs. I mean, we recognize the benefits for both, and we are just going to have to look at the timing and make assessments at that time where we think the split is appropriate between current dividend needs and future growth.

Trevor Cranston (Analyst)

Okay. Got it.

Phil Kardis (President and CEO)

I know it's a little bit squishy, but it's hard to predict right now for that.

Trevor Cranston (Analyst)

Sure. Okay. As you look at the origination volume that they're producing, can you talk about your near-term expectations as to how much of that you might retain and securitize for an ongoing investment on the balance sheet? How do you sort of view returns on retaining that production as investment relative to some of the other areas you've been deploying capital? Thanks.

Jack Macdowell (Chief Investment Officer)

Yep. Sure. Hey, this is Jack. I guess what we would say first and foremost is our intent is not to disrupt any of the partnerships that they have with their existing investor base. That is a very important component of their business. We continue to believe that our job is in part to support that effort. With that being said, given just the predictions for the growth in overall mortgage originations in 2026 and the fact that the Non-QM share of total mortgage originations has increased every single year since 2020, we believe that their volume is going to be such that our retention of loans will not disrupt any of those partnerships. I think a fair assessment of that is we will look to do something in the context of four to five securitizations a year, maybe one per quarter. When that starts will be a function of.

Market conditions. It is also a balance between they are generating some healthy gain on sale income. When we retain those loans for our portfolio, that is a long-term investment decision, but we are also giving up some of those near-term gains. There is an economic assessment that we go through as well. I think it is a fair assessment to assume something along the lines of one deal per quarter. The other piece of your question, I think, is with respect to economics. I mean, it depends on the structure of the deal, how far we sell down in the capital structure, and what we ultimately retain. We are looking at returns on our retained pieces of those deals somewhere in the context of mid to high teens.

Trevor Cranston (Analyst)

Okay. Got it. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Phil Kardis for closing comments.

Phil Kardis (President and CEO)

Thanks for participating in our third quarter earnings call. We look forward to speaking to you in February about the fourth quarter and 2025 end of the year. Look forward to seeing you. Thanks for joining.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.