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CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORP (CIM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered a sharp GAAP loss and book value decline: GAAP diluted EPS was -$2.07, and GAAP book value per share fell to $19.72; economic return on book value was -10.1% for the quarter .
  • Core earnings power was steadier: Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) was $0.37 per share, with economic net interest income of $69.2 million and a 1.5% net interest spread .
  • Strategic pivot advanced: Closed Palisades acquisition in December, began fee-based advisory revenue, and outlined plans to diversify with Agency RMBS and potential MSR purchases; issued call notices on NR securitizations to unlock capital in early 2025 .
  • Liquidity/hedging remained solid: ~$610 million cash + unencumbered assets at year-end; executed January 2025 securitization (CIM 2025 I‑1), optimized swaps/swaptions/futures; margin calls in Q4 were immaterial .
  • Near-term stock narrative: Book value volatility and GAAP loss likely pressured sentiment, but catalysts include resecuritizations, fee-based income ramp, and MSR strategy; management noted post-year-end book value up ~3% on rate/spread moves as of call date .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Fee-based income and platform scale: “With the Palisades acquisition, we have embarked on our strategy of enhancing returns… through diversification of revenue… [and] grow our nondiscretionary investment asset management and advisory services” .
  • Portfolio construction progress: Sold Agency CMOs, added short-duration RTLs, closed 2025 investor-loan securitization, and maintained strong demand across the capital structure; first time selling down to BB in a deal .
  • Hedge/liquidity positioning: $610 million total cash and unencumbered assets; swaps ($1.5B at 3.56%), swaption executed in January, and futures/cap overlays to protect spreads and EAD .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP mark-to-market hit: GAAP diluted EPS -$2.07, driven by net unrealized losses on financial instruments at fair value ($181.2 million) and other adjustments excluded from EAD; book value per share fell to $19.72 .
  • Spread/curve dynamics: Steepening in December and wider long-end rates vs short-end pressured loan valuations relative to securitized debt, amplifying quarter-end book value volatility .
  • Transaction/one-time costs: Q4 transaction expenses rose ~$4.7 million, primarily from Palisades acquisition; EAD excludes non-recurring acquisition-related items and non-cash imputed compensation ($10.3 million) .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
GAAP Net Income (Loss) Available to Common ($USD Millions)$33.9 $113.7 $(168.3)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.41 $1.39 -$2.07
EAD per Adjusted Diluted Share ($)$0.37 $0.36 $0.37
Economic Net Interest Income ($USD Millions)$72.4 $71.5 $69.2
Yield on Avg Interest-Earning Assets (%)5.9% 6.1% 6.0%
Avg Cost of Funds (%)4.2% 4.5% 4.5%
Net Interest Spread (%)1.7% 1.6% 1.5%
GAAP Book Value/Share ($)$21.27 $22.35 $19.72
Economic Return on GAAP Book Value (%)1.4% 6.8% -10.1%

Segment/Portfolio Mix (Fair Value % of Portfolio)

CategoryQ3 2024Q4 2024
Loans Held for Investment84.1% 87.6%
Agency RMBS (Total)7.6% 3.7%
Non-Agency RMBS (Total)8.3% 8.3%
Agency CMBS – Project Loans0.2% 0.3%
Agency CMBS – Interest-Only0.6% 0.1%

Key KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Assets ($USD Millions)$13,131.9 $13,702.4 $13,116.5
Total Liabilities ($USD Millions)$10,490.6 $10,965.1 $10,590.3
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)$162.3 $97.3 $84.0
GAAP Leverage (x)3.8:1 3.9:1 4.0:1
Recourse Leverage (x)1.0:1 1.2:1 1.2:1

Non-GAAP reconciliation and drivers: EAD remained $0.37/share as large non-cash/unrealized items (e.g., $181.2 million unrealized losses on financial instruments, derivatives, transaction and acquisition-related costs, and $10.3 million non-cash imputed compensation) were excluded per company definition .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Common Dividend per Share2024Raised to $0.35 in Q2 and to $0.37 in Q3 Not updated in Q4 materials; FY dividends totaled $1.42 Maintained (no new update)
Resecuritizations/Call RightsEarly 2025N/AIssued call notices on NR securitizations; expect resecuritizations in next couple of months Initiated/Accelerating
Fee-Based Income (Palisades)2025N/AExpect to grow advisory services; Palisades named asset manager on 2025 securitization Initiated/Expanding
Portfolio Allocation (Agency RMBS)2025N/AExpect to grow Agency RMBS to diversify, provide liquidity, and volatility protection Raised Emphasis
MSR Strategy2025N/AExploring MSR purchases to hedge duration and stabilize book value New Initiative
Financing FacilityJan 2025N/ANew larger non-/limited mark-to-market facility, >400 bps rate reduction, ~$62 million cash freed Improved Terms

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Macro rates/curveQ2: Expect cuts; volatility persists . Q3: 6.1% asset yield, 4.5% cost; steepening helpful .Long end rose; term premium up; curve steepened; hurt GAAP BV; EAD steady .Mixed (BV pressure; core stable)
Portfolio diversificationQ2: First large Agency investment; RPL securitization . Q3: ~$600M securities purchased; Palisades deal announced .Sold Agency CMOs; added RTL; committed non-QM; closed Palisades .Advancing
Fee-based income (Palisades)Q2: None. Q3: Acquisition announced and strategic rationale .Closed; advisory services active; fee income to grow .Ramping
Hedging & liquidityQ2: Swaps/option; ~$649M cash/unencumbered . Q3: $648M; swaps 3.56% .~$610M; swaption exercised; futures and cap added; margin calls immaterial .Robust
Dividend policyQ2: Raised to $0.35 . Q3: Raised to $0.37 .FY 2024 dividends $1.42; no new common declaration in Q4 PR .Stable
MSR initiativeQ2/Q3: Not core focus.Target allocations across coupon stack; negative-duration hedge; equity sizing TBD .Emerging priority
Securitization pipelineQ2: CIM 2024-R1 . Q3: Detailed RPL deal, strong execution .Closed CIM 2025 I‑1; strong demand; call notices on NR deals .Active/Accelerating

Management Commentary

  • CEO on strategic shift: “We expect to continue to diversify our portfolio, increase liquidity and grow our fee-based income revenue stream… we expect to grow our Agency RMBS portfolio… [and] look to potential opportunities to acquire mortgage servicing rights” .
  • CFO on Q4 metrics: “GAAP net loss… $168.3 million or $2.07 per share… GAAP book value… $19.72 per share… EAD… $30.4 million or $0.37 per share… yield on average interest-earning assets was 6%, cost of funds 4.5%, net interest spread 1.5%” .
  • CIO on BV volatility: “The change in book value was a direct result of the changes in interest rates and credit spreads… we estimate our GAAP book value has increased approximately 3% due to rate and spread movements since year end” .
  • CEO on Palisades rationale: “We believe the acquisition of Palisades will further strengthen and or expand our business and provide additional opportunities for growth” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Margin calls: Management described Q4 margin calls as “really immaterial,” indicating limited liquidity stress .
  • Securitization demand: Credit spreads tightened through 2024/early 2025; strong demand including “first time we’ve sold down to a BB” in 2025 deal .
  • MSR allocation: Will consider across coupon stack; sizing depends on capital freed from resecuritizations; intent is to hedge duration and stabilize book value with a cash-flowing asset rather than yield-diluting derivatives .
  • Hedging posture: Focused on locking in earnings/dividends via liability hedges; some retained pieces are mark-to-market, but push continues toward non/limited mark-to-market fixed-rate facilities .
  • GSE reform: Potentially long process; may present spread-driven entry points into Agencies and push non-core products into non-Agency space; policy aims to avoid disrupting housing finance .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue were not available via our data connection at the time of analysis; as a result, comparisons to Wall Street consensus are not included (S&P Global request limit exceeded). Values would have been retrieved from S&P Global if accessible.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core earnings resilience: Despite a headline GAAP loss and book value decline, EAD held at $0.37/share with stable net interest spread (1.5%), supporting dividend capacity near-term .
  • Book value sensitivity: Quarter-end BV hit by curve steepening and mark-to-market; management noted ~3% BV recovery post year-end on rates/spreads—be mindful of ongoing volatility catalysts .
  • Catalysts ahead: Resecuritizations of NR deals, unlocking equity/cash for redeployment; fee-based advisory revenue scaling; potential MSR purchases to hedge duration and stabilize book value .
  • Portfolio mix shift: Agency RMBS exposure reduced into year-end (7.6% to 3.7% FV), while loans rose (84.1% to 87.6% FV); watch for tactical moves in Agencies/MSRs as rates evolve .
  • Funding improvements: New larger facility lowered rates by >400 bps and freed ~$62 million, supporting accretive investment pipeline and reduced earnings sensitivity to floating costs .
  • Liquidity and hedging foundation: ~$610 million cash/unencumbered assets; layered swaps, swaption, futures/cap strategy to protect EAD while accepting some GAAP BV volatility .
  • Trading implications: Short-term sentiment likely tied to BV marks and macro prints; medium-term thesis hinges on resecuritization execution, fee-income ramp, and MSR deployment to smooth BV while sustaining EAD.