Executive Summary

Q3 showed stable opex and a narrowed YoY loss per share, but EPS missed the single-analyst S&P consensus due to a $5.67M non‑cash deemed dividend on warrants; cash rose sequentially on an underwritten offering and other financings .
Scientific momentum continued: RedTail/CLD‑401 SITC data demonstrated protection from immune clearance after systemic dosing and expression of genetic payloads at the tumor site; a new SAB was established to aid development .
Balance sheet extended: $6.9M gross underwritten offering in November (total 2025 gross proceeds $23.0M), quarter-end cash ~~$10.4M plus $0.2M restricted; subsequent ATM (~~$0.4M) and sale of Nova Cell stake for $6.0M consideration (mix of debt cancellation and deferred) .
Risk overhang: Q3 10-Q contains a going-concern warning; management expects to raise additional capital to fund operations and clinical progress .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

RedTail platform validation: SITC preclinical data showed systemic dosing with protection from immune clearance and targeted replication at metastatic tumor sites; platform effectively expressed genetic medicines at the tumor site. “RedTail…continues to demonstrate its ability to potently and specifically deliver genetic payloads to metastatic tumor sites.” — CEO Eric Poma .
Strategic advisory depth: New Scientific Advisory Board formed, including former Pfizer CMO Mace Rothenberg and leading virotherapy experts, to support CLD‑401 and RedTail .
Liquidity progress: $6.9M gross underwritten offering post‑quarter, bringing 2025 gross proceeds to $23.0M; cash increased to ~$10.4M as of 9/30 (plus $0.2M restricted) vs $5.3M cash at 6/30 .

What Went Wrong

EPS miss and equity dilution optics: Net loss per share was $(2.21) vs S&P consensus of $(1.68)*, pressured by a $5.67M non‑cash deemed dividend on warrants that increased loss attributable to common stockholders .
Going concern: Management concluded substantial doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern without additional financing .
Continued operating losses and funding need: No product revenue; ongoing R&D and G&A drive losses, requiring substantial additional capital to advance programs .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$(5.07)	$(5.06)	$(5.76)	$(5.18)
Net Loss per Share (GAAP)	$(7.75)	$(0.18)	$(1.99)	$(2.21)
Research & Development ($USD Millions)	$2.15	$2.43	$2.59	$2.36
General & Administrative ($USD Millions)	$3.07	$2.64	$3.07	$2.69
Total Operating Expense ($USD Millions)	$5.23	$5.06	$5.66	$5.05
Weighted Avg Shares (Thousands)	652	27,086	2,877	4,907
Cash + Restricted Cash (Period End, $USD Millions)	—	$10.8	$5.4	$10.6

Notes: Q3'25 includes a $5.67M non‑cash deemed dividend on warrants that increased net loss attributable to common stockholders . Company reported no product revenue and does not expect product sales until approvals .

Vs. Wall Street (S&P Global) for Q3 2025:

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Surprise
EPS (GAAP)	$(2.21)	$(1.68)*	Miss
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$0.00 (no product revenue)	$0.00*	Inline

Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown/KPIs: Not applicable; Calidi is pre‑revenue with no segmented reporting in the quarter .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
CLD‑401 IND timing	Development milestone	IND filing expected by end of 2026	Advancing to clinical trials; no date update provided	Maintained (no update)
Financial guidance (revenue/margins/OpEx)	FY	None provided	None provided	—
Liquidity/runway	Next 12 months	Substantial doubt language expected until financings are secured	Substantial doubt persists; plan to raise additional capital	—

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q3’25 earnings call transcript was available as of this analysis; themes reflect Q1–Q3 press releases and the Q3 10‑Q.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
RedTail/CLD‑401 platform progress	AACR/ASCO data: IL‑15 superagonist payload; CD55 membrane engineering reduces immune clearance; systemic delivery to metastatic sites; IND by end 2026	SITC data: protected from immune clearance after systemic dosing; replicates in tumor cells; expresses genetic medicines at tumor site	Positive scientific momentum
Regulatory (CLD‑201)	IND opened Q1; FDA Fast Track designation in Q2 for soft tissue sarcoma	No new regulatory updates disclosed	Neutral
Capital/financing	Q1 cash $10.6M; Q2 $4.6M warrant inducement, cash $5.3M	$6.9M Nov underwritten offering (2025 total $23.0M), cash ~$10.4M at Q3 end; subsequent ATM ~$0.4M; sale of Nova Cell stake for $6.0M consideration	Improved near‑term liquidity; ongoing need
Governance/expertise	CEO transition and CMO advisor added in Q1	New Scientific Advisory Board (Pfizer ex‑CMO, virotherapy leaders)	Strengthening bench
Listing/compliance	—	1‑for‑12 reverse stock split effective Aug 4, 2025	Compliance actions taken
Liquidity/going concern	—	Substantial doubt about going concern; need additional capital	Risk persists

Management Commentary

“In our preclinical models, the RedTail platform continues to demonstrate its ability to potently and specifically deliver genetic payloads to metastatic tumor sites. CLD‑401…is advancing to clinical trials.” — Eric Poma, CEO (Q3 PR) .
“The RedTail technology can now allow for ‘programmable membranes’…Calidi is also exploring additional cell types outside of oncology… and additional payloads.” (Q3 PR) .
Prior quarter: “We believe our RedTail platform…will be a substantial breakthrough…We look forward to…building on Calidi’s strong platforms.” (Q2 PR) .

Q&A Highlights

No Q3’25 earnings call transcript was available. The company scheduled an investor webinar with live Q&A for Nov 19, 2025, following the earnings release and SITC data update .
Key likely focus areas (inferred from filings/PRs): liquidity and financing plans (given going‑concern), RedTail/CLD‑401 development path and timing, and CLD‑201 clinical execution .

Estimates Context

Coverage remains limited (1 estimate for EPS and revenue). Q3’25 EPS came in at $(2.21) vs S&P Global consensus of $(1.68), primarily reflecting the $5.67M non‑cash deemed dividend on warrants that increased loss attributable to common stockholders; revenue inline at $0.00 .
Expect estimate models to incorporate the quarter’s reverse split (Aug 4, 2025) and warrant‑related non‑cash items going forward .
Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Scientific de‑risking continues for RedTail/CLD‑401 with SITC data supporting systemic delivery and targeted expression; SAB formation adds credibility to clinical translation .
Liquidity improved sequentially via financings ($6.9M Nov underwritten offering; 2025 total gross proceeds $23.0M) and subsequent actions (ATM ~$0.4M; Nova Cell stake sale $6.0M consideration), but a going‑concern warning underscores continued dependence on external capital .
Q3 operating profile was disciplined: R&D $2.36M and G&A $2.69M, with total opex ~$5.05M; YoY G&A down vs Q3’24 $3.07M .
EPS miss vs consensus was driven by a non‑cash deemed dividend on warrants ($5.67M), not a deterioration in core operating spend; watch for model adjustments .
Near‑term catalysts: further preclinical/IND‑enabling updates for CLD‑401, progression of CLD‑201 (Fast Track), and financing milestones; stock remains highly sensitive to capital markets access and dilution parameters .
Execution focus: balancing runway with trial initiation timing; partnership or non‑dilutive funding could materially alter the funding path and valuation .

Sources

Q3 2025 8‑K press release and exhibits (financial tables and highlights) .
Q3 2025 10‑Q (financial statements; reverse split; liquidity/going concern; financing updates) .
Q2 2025 8‑K press release (financials; ASCO data; CLD‑201 Fast Track; financing) .
Q1 2025 8‑K press release (financials; CEO transition; AACR RedTail update; CLD‑201 IND) .
Company IR/GlobeNewswire press releases (Q3 results; SITC investor day; webinar) .

Calidi Biotherapeutics, Inc. (CLDI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary