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Calumet, Inc. /DE (CLMT)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $1.027B, above consensus, while GAAP net loss widened to $147.9M and basic EPS was -$1.70; Adjusted EBITDA was $55.1M and Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes was $76.5M, supported by Specialties margin expansion and record cost reductions at Montana Renewables .
  • Specialties delivered robust margins despite a planned month-long Shreveport turnaround; Montana Renewables’ operating cost fell to a record $0.43/gal, and the company is on track for 120–150MM gal/year SAF by Q2 2026 .
  • Deleveraging accelerated: Stonebriar financing added $80M cash and an $80M redemption notice; in total, $230M of 2026 notes were called over the past few months, with management targeting $800M restricted-group debt longer term .
  • Regulatory catalysts supportive: PTC extension and SRE decisions; Calumet later received EPA small refinery exemptions reducing the RIN accrual from 396MM to 89MM—potentially a positive for cash/liquidity trajectory .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Specialties margin expansion and volumes: “Robust margin expansion and strong volumes were demonstrated in our Specialties segment despite a planned, month-long turnaround at our Shreveport facility” .
    • Montana Renewables cost leadership: Operating cost (ex-SG&A) fell to $0.43/gal, lowest since launch; management: “firmly established… one of the most competitively advantaged producers in the space” .
    • Deleveraging progress: Stonebriar deal increased asset value to $120M and proceeds will redeem 2026 notes; management called a cumulative $230M of 2026 notes year-to-date .

  • What Went Wrong

    • GAAP profitability pressured: Q2 GAAP gross loss of $43.6M and net loss of $147.9M, with heavy RINs mark-to-market impacts and turnaround effects .
    • Montana Renewables segment still negative on Adjusted EBITDA (pre-tax attributes) amid “lowest industry margin” for renewable diesel, though improved YoY on with-tax basis .
    • Rail service disruption increased logistics costs and complexity during the quarter, requiring alternative arrangements to keep customers supplied .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Sales (Revenue, $USD Billions)$0.950 $0.994 $1.027
Net Income (Loss, $USD Millions)$(40.7) $(162.0) $(147.9)
Basic EPS ($USD)$(0.47) $(1.87) $(1.70)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$56.6 $38.1 $55.1
Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes ($USD Millions)—$55.0 $76.5
MetricQ2 2024Q2 2025
Sales (Revenue, $USD Billions)$1.134 $1.027
Basic EPS ($USD)$(0.48) $(1.70)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$74.8 $55.1
Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes ($USD Millions)$74.8 $76.5

Estimates vs Actual (Q2 2025):

MetricConsensusActualResult
Revenue ($USD Millions)948.2*1,026.6 Beat
Primary EPS ($USD, S&P “Primary”)-0.215*-0.3998*Miss (company basic EPS was -$1.70 )
EBITDA ($USD Millions, S&P “EBITDA”)56.9*55.1 (Adjusted EBITDA) Slight miss (definitions differ)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment performance:

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Specialty Products & Solutions (SPS)43.4 56.3 66.8
SPS Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)6.7% 8.7% 10.6%
Performance Brands (PB)16.3 15.8 13.5
Montana/Renewables (MR) Adj EBITDA10.9 (13.6) (5.1)
MR Adj EBITDA with Tax Attributes—3.3 16.3
Corporate (Adj EBITDA)(14.0) (20.4) (20.1)

KPIs and operating metrics:

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Sales Volume (bpd)85,882 85,547 88,766
SPS Facility Production (bpd)61,711 55,026 55,704
Renewable Fuels Production (bpd)7,865 9,932 12,044
MR Operating Cost per Gallon ($/gal)——$0.43
MR Adjusted Gross Profit per Barrel ($)$9.15 $(3.77) $(0.82)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
SAF capacity (annual)Q2 2026 start-up120–150MM gal; capital $20–$30M 120–150MM gal; capital $20–$30M; catalyst order placed; engineering underway Maintained (timeline reaffirmed)
2026 Notes redemption2025Partial redemption $150M notice (May 2025) Additional $80M redemption notice via Stonebriar proceeds; cumulative $230M called YTD Raised (program expanded)
Restricted group FCF2H 2025—~$50–$60M expected, including ~+$35M WC unwind benefit New
PTC monetization2025Expectation to monetize 45Z credits (PTC introduced) Term sheet signed for ~half credits; expecting ~95–98% of face value Update (execution underway)
MR operating costsQ2 2025—$0.43/gal operating cost, record low New low
RINs accrual (SRE impact)Post-Q2 (Aug 2025)396MM RINs accrued (2019–2024 petitions pending)Reduced to 89MM RINs (full/partial exemptions granted) Reduced materially

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
Regulatory/macro (PTC, RVO, SRE)DOE loan funded; push to delever ; accelerated MaxSAF plan; PTC added to Adj EBITDA with tax attributes PTC extended through 2029; transferable; half credits in term sheet; supportive RVO proposal (~30% demand step); SRE backlog addressed industry-wide Improving clarity and supportive backdrop
Supply chain/logisticsPlanned turnaround completed Q4’24 Rail provider network disruption increased costs; now normalizing Transient issue, normalizing
TariffsNot highlighted“Do not believe [tariffs] are impactful” given domestic footprint/USMCA protections Neutral
Product performance (PB/TruFuel)PB volumes +15% YoY in Q4’24 ; +7% YoY in Q1’25 TruFuel margins strong; PB Adj EBITDA $13.5M Solid demand; some seasonal softness
Deleveraging/capital actionsAnnounced Royal Purple industrial sale ($110M) Stonebriar extension ($120M value; $80M proceeds); cumulative $230M of 2026 notes called; liquidity ~$200M revolver Accelerating deleveraging
SAF commercializationMaxSAF accelerated, 120–150MM gal by Q2’26 Active SAF marketing; strong premiums ($1–$2/gal over RD); diversified customers/geographies incl. Midwest, West Coast, Canada Building commercial momentum
Cost execution (MR)Turnaround completed; improving operations Operating cost down to $0.43/gal; 7th consecutive quarter cost improvement; Op+SG&A ~$0.51/gal Structural cost leadership

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Our second quarter results reflect continued strength in our Specialties business, record operational performance at Montana Renewables, and meaningful cost reductions across the portfolio.”
  • CEO: “MaxSAF™ expansion remains on pace, with 120–150 million gallons of SAF production expected online in the second quarter of 2026.”
  • CFO: “We now will have called $230,000,000 of the 2026 notes in the last few months… We remain confident in our plan to reach our ultimate goal of $800,000,000 of restricted group debt.”
  • CEO: On SAF market and pricing: “We continue to see SAF premiums in the previously reported $1 to $2 per gallon over renewable diesel range.”
  • CEO: On PTC monetization: “We just signed a term sheet on about half of our credits… we historically projected that established tax credits sell for 95%–98% of their value.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Renewable diesel mid-cycle earnings: Management points to proposed RVO implying 4.5–5.5B gal biomass-based diesel demand and historical margin ranges ~$1.50–$2.00/gal, with MR capable of $140–$150M Adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes at ~$1.50/gal, plus incremental SAF premium uplift .
  • Balance sheet path: $230M of 2026 notes called; focus shifts to managing 2027 notes via strategic actions, restricted group FCF, and potential Montana Renewables monetization; liquidity ~$200M revolver .
  • Cost reductions detail: Major driver was water minimization and efficiency; contractor reductions as internal teams matured; persistent OpEx per-gallon declines .
  • SAF market/regional strategy: Attractive Midwest credits; flexibility serving West Coast and Canada via BNSF; diversified customer slate across fuelers, airlines, and credit buyers .
  • Regulatory outlook: PTC extension; encouragement that half-RIN for imports (if implemented) would force RIN prices to adjust rather than imported feed prices falling; expectation for quicker PTC monetization in “near future” .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue beat consensus in Q2 2025 (actual $1,026.6M vs $948.2M*), driven by Specialties margin expansion and strong volumes, plus improved MR throughput despite weak industry margins .
  • EPS missed on S&P Primary EPS metric (actual -$0.400* vs -$0.215*), with company-reported GAAP basic EPS of -$1.70 reflecting notable RINs and turnaround impacts; analysts may need to adjust for non-GAAP, RINs mark-to-market, and tax attribute treatment going forward .
  • EBITDA modestly below consensus (company Adjusted EBITDA $55.1M vs S&P EBITDA consensus 56.9M*), but Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes reached $76.5M, signaling the growing role of 45Z credits in reported performance .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Specialties is the earnings anchor; margin discipline and fixed cost reductions yielded SPS Adjusted EBITDA margin 10.6%, with further gains likely as Shreveport turnaround benefits and rail normalization flow through Q3 .
  • Montana Renewables cost position creates asymmetric upside when margins recover; record $0.43/gal OpEx and SAF premium ($1–$2/gal) support medium-term profitability as RVO/SRE clarity improves .
  • Deleveraging is advancing, reducing near-term refinancing risk; Stonebriar cash and cumulative $230M note redemptions are meaningful signals of execution .
  • Regulatory tailwinds are forming: PTC extension/transferability and SRE decisions clean up industry overhangs; potential RVO step-up could restore margins toward mid-cycle .
  • Watch near-term catalysts: PTC monetization closings, MR monthly run decisions under weak RD margins, and 2H 2025 restricted group FCF delivery (~$50–$60M) .
  • Estimate models should incorporate tax attributes and segment dynamics; using Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes better aligns with how management and creditors evaluate performance .
  • Trading implications: Revenue beat and structural cost progress vs headline GAAP loss create a mixed tape; stock reaction likely tied to signs of regulatory-driven margin normalization and concrete PTC monetization cash inflows .