Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered strong mixed results: revenue of $1.08B, gross profit $373.7M, Adjusted EBITDA $69.6M, and Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes $92.5M; GAAP EPS was $3.61 as RINs-related items and tax flowed through GAAP, while underlying Adjusted EBITDA improved y/y and q/q .
Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue modestly exceeded ($1.078B vs $1.052B*), and “Primary EPS” materially beat (-$0.225* vs 0.205* actual per SPGI), though company-reported GAAP EPS was $3.61; SPGI “EBITDA” actual (methodology aligns with GAAP EBITDA) was far above consensus ($367.4M* vs $71.7M*), reflecting large RINs and tax effects embedded in GAAP EBITDA rather than Adjusted EBITDA .
Specialty Products & Solutions (SPS) posted record production and 11.8% Adjusted EBITDA margin (vs 7.1% y/y), while Montana Renewables (MR) posted negative Adjusted EBITDA ex tax attributes (-$5.8M) amid industry-wide weak renewable diesel margins and a planned SAF test run; MR Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes improved to $17.1M .
Strategic catalysts: (1) DOE-validated pathway to MaxSAF™ expansion to 120–150M annual gallons by Q2 2026 with ~100M gallons contracted or in final contracting, (2) successful first $25M PTC sale in Q3 and $15M in October, and (3) EPA SRE decision reduced RIN obligation by >$320M on the balance sheet, all of which improve visibility on deleveraging and 2026 margin recovery .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record SPS production, strong margin capture, and cost discipline drove SPS Adjusted EBITDA to $80.2M and 11.8% margin; management: “record production quarter… sold over 20,000 bpd at margins well above $60 per barrel” .
SAF commercialization advanced: “approximately 100 million gallons of SAF fully contracted or in final review,” successful MaxSAF™ test run confirming 120–150M gallon target; local truck-rack MaxSAF™ blending launched to broaden outlets .
Balance sheet and cash catalysts: first $25M PTC monetization in Q3 and $15M in October; EPA SREs reduced outstanding RIN liability by roughly $320M; restricted group debt reduced >$40M in Q3 despite peak cash interest quarter .

What Went Wrong

MR posted negative Adjusted EBITDA ex tax attributes (-$5.8M) as renewable diesel margins remained depressed and a planned SAF test run reduced volumes; feedstock basis widened (~$0.20/gal above CBOT) but normalized in October .
Reported GAAP metrics (e.g., EBITDA, EPS) were heavily affected by RINs and tax items; non-GAAP restatement of prior quarters needed for cash flow classification (operating vs financing), though no impact on revenue, net income, cash, or Adjusted EBITDA (approx. +$80M reclass to CFO) .
Leverage remains elevated: total liabilities $3.18B with negative common equity (-$695M); long-term debt $2.15B plus $155M current portion as of 9/30/25, underscoring continued focus on deleveraging and maturity management .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L Snapshot and GAAP vs Non-GAAP

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.1004	$1.0266	$1.0780
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$4.9	$(43.6)	$373.7
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(6.5)	$(58.1)	$365.2
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$59.8	$55.1	$69.6
Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes ($USD Millions)	$59.8	$76.5	$92.5
GAAP EPS (Basic/Diluted, $)	$(1.18)	$(1.70)	$3.61

S&P Global Consensus vs Actual (Q3 2025)

Metric	Consensus (Q3 2025)	Actual (SPGI)	Company-reported Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.05244914*	$1.0780*	$1.0780
Primary EPS ($)	$(0.225)*	$0.2048*	$3.61 (GAAP)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$71.65315*	$367.4*	$365.2 (GAAP EBITDA)

Note: SPGI “Primary EPS” is a standardized measure and may differ from company GAAP EPS; SPGI “EBITDA” reflects GAAP EBITDA including RINs and tax effects. Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Performance

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
SPS Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	50.7	66.8	80.2
SPS Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	7.1%	10.6%	11.8%
Performance Brands Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	13.6	13.5	13.2
MR Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	14.6	(5.1)	(5.8)
MR Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes ($M)	14.6	16.3	17.1
Corporate Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	(19.1)	(20.1)	(18.0)

KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total Sales Volume (bpd)	92,275	88,766	91,605
Total Facility Production (bpd)	83,305	79,912	88,668
MR Operating Cost ex SG&A ($/gal)	—	$0.43	$0.40
SAF Volumes Placed (pre-expansion)	—	—	≈100M gallons committed or in final review

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
MaxSAF™ capacity (annualized)	Q2 2026 start-up	120–150M gallons (Q1/Q2 reaffirmation)	120–150M gallons (on track)	Maintained
SAF placement	Pre-expansion	Qualitative: demand robust; pipeline > supply	≈100M gallons contracted or in DOE final review	Updated (more specific)
PTC monetization capture	2025+	95–98% expected over time	Trending toward ~95% capture; $25M sold in Q3; $15M in Oct	Maintained (with execution updates)
Deleveraging target (restricted group)	Multi-year	~$800M goal	Reduction of additional $600–$800M contemplated; deleveraging priority reiterated	Maintained
MR operating cost ex SG&A	2025 trend	$0.43/gal in Q2	$0.40/gal in Q3; 8th straight improvement ex-turnaround	Lowered (improved)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q1 2025 (prior-2)	Q2 2025 (prior-1)	Q3 2025 (current)	Trend
Regulatory (RVO/SRE)	DOE loan funded; RINs heavy; awaiting clarity	Trump EPA 2026 RVO proposal seen as supportive; PTC extended; carryover RINs weigh on margins	SREs reduced RIN liability by ~320M; awaiting final RVO; expect 2026 recovery	Improving clarity; constructive into 2026
SAF expansion (MaxSAF™ 150)	Accelerated to 120–150M gal by Q2’26	On track; active offtake discussions; $1–$2/gal premium reiterated	Test run successful; ~75% placed; truck-rack blended SAF launched	Execution progressing
Cost discipline	$22M y/y OpEx reduction YTD	$42M y/y OpEx reduction 1H; SPS >20kbpd streak	$61M y/y OpEx reduction YTD; SPS volumes, margin strength	Accelerating
MR operating costs	Noted improvement vs 2024	$0.43/gal ex SG&A; record low	$0.40/gal ex SG&A; further improvement	Improving
Deleveraging/maturities	$150M 2026 notes redemption notice	Stonebriar $120M; $230M 2026 notes called; liquidity ~$200M rev. capacity	Reduced restricted group debt by >$40M in Q3; path to address 2026/2027 discussed	Continuing
Feedstock/margins	Seasonally weak; tight WCS-WTI	Lowest RD index margins; still positive adj EBITDA with tax at MR	Temporary ~$0.20/gal feed basis widened; normalized in Oct	Transitory pressure abating

Management Commentary

“Calumet posted strong financial results and continued to achieve key strategic milestones during the third quarter… our cost discipline and operational progress has driven a $61 million year-to-date reduction in operating costs versus last year.” — Todd Borgmann, CEO .
“We remain on schedule for our max SAF expansion in the first half of 2026… roughly 100 million gallons of post-expansion volumes placed through contracts which are fully complete or in the final review step within our DOE process.” — Todd Borgmann .
“We completed our first $25 million PTC sale… subsequently sold another $15 million in October… credits trending towards a more normal tax credit environment.” — Todd Borgmann .
“We reported $92.5 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes… reduced our restricted group debt by over $40 million… reduced our outstanding balance sheet RIN obligation by over $320 million.” — David Lunin, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

SAF expansion gating items minimal; tactical debottlenecking during turnaround; output range depends on catalyst performance (conservative) .
Offtake contracting: mix of executed/in-service contracts and DOE-reviewed agreements; pipeline strong, market appears supply short .
MR margin headwinds: Q3 affected by planned SAF test-run downtime and industry-wide feedstock basis blowout (~$0.20/gal over CBOT); both normalized post-quarter .
SRE impact: balance sheet RIN obligation reduced by ~$320M after EPA decisions; significantly cleans up historical accruals .
PTC monetization cadence and pricing: initial ~90% realizations improving toward ~95% as market normalizes; expect more ratable monetization going forward .

Estimates Context

Revenue: CLMT reported $1.078B vs S&P Global consensus of $1.052B* for Q3 2025 .
EPS: S&P Global “Primary EPS” actual 0.205* vs consensus -0.225*; company GAAP EPS was $3.61, reflecting substantial RINs/tax impacts (different basis/methodology) .
EBITDA: S&P Global “EBITDA” actual $367.4M* vs consensus $71.7M*; note this aligns with GAAP EBITDA that includes RINs/tax effects and diverges from company Adjusted EBITDA ($69.6M) .
Values marked with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Specialty engine is performing: SPS margins and volume resilience underpin stable core earnings; 11.8% segment margin signals price/mix and cost improvements despite broader specialty softness .
Renewables optionality building: MaxSAF™ test success, ~100M gallons effectively placed, and truck-rack blended SAF broaden market access; SAF premiums ($1–$2/gal) support 2026 uplift .
2026 setup improving: EPA SRE clean-up and anticipated RVO finalization position MR for margin recovery; operating cost now ~$0.40/gal ex SG&A .
Cash catalysts executed: PTC monetization underway ($25M in Q3; $15M in Oct), aiding liquidity and deleveraging alongside restricted group debt paydown in Q3 .
Mind the optics: GAAP EBITDA/EPS skewed by RINs/tax items obscure underlying trend; Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes rose to $92.5M; monitor Adjusted EBITDA and segment KPIs for true run-rate .
Deleveraging remains central: management targets an additional $600–$800M reduction and is evaluating strategic options; watch maturities and Montana Renewables monetization milestones post-MaxSAF™ .

References:

Q3 2025 press release and 8-K (including Item 2.02 and financials):
Q3 2025 earnings call transcript:
Other relevant Q3 press releases: MaxSAF™ blended launch
Prior quarters for trend analysis: Q2 2025 press release and call ; Q1 2025 press release
SRE update (Aug 26, 2025):

S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Calumet, Inc. /DE (CLMT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary