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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $103.8M, +0.1% YoY, and above S&P Global consensus of $100.8M; non-GAAP EPS was $0.01 vs consensus of $(0.20), a beat, while GAAP EPS was $(0.60) driven by non-cash goodwill impairment ($64.3M) and accelerated depreciation ($50.7M) tied to LNG station removal . Values marked with * are from S&P Global.
  • Adjusted EBITDA rose to $17.1M (+33% YoY), supported by stronger fueling margins and prioritization of downstream RNG delivery despite supply constraints from cold weather; cash and short-term investments increased to $226.6M (+$9.1M QoQ) .
  • Guidance update: 2025 GAAP net loss widened to $(225)–$(220)M (from prior $(160)–$(155)M) to reflect booked non-cash charges; 2025 Adjusted EBITDA maintained at $50–$55M .
  • Operational catalysts: resumed share repurchases (~$26.1M remaining capacity), breadth of initial Cummins X15N adoption (25+ fleets), and potential tailwinds from AFTC reauthorization/45Z finalization; near-term volatility tied to policy outcomes (CARB LCFS, 45Z) and RNG supply normalization .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $17.1M (vs $12.8M in Q1 2024), with positive operating cash flow and improved core fueling economics; management emphasized “a net increase in cash and investments” in the quarter .
  • Management highlighted stable demand across refuse, transit and trucking, and reiterated confidence in RNG’s economics for heavy-duty trucking: “RNG is the commonsense solution… fleets can economically achieve significant emissions reductions” .
  • Resumed share repurchases under the existing program (~$26.1M capacity as of March 31), reflecting confidence in valuation and balance sheet strength .

What Went Wrong

  • RNG gallons sold fell 12.8% YoY to 50.6M due to cold-weather impacts on third-party supply (January–February), contributing to lower RIN revenue and volume pressure .
  • GAAP net loss spiked to $(135.0)M, primarily from non-cash goodwill impairment ($64.3M) and accelerated depreciation ($50.7M) tied to the planned exit of LNG assets at 55 Pilot Flying J locations .
  • AFTC expired on Dec 31, 2024, removing $5.4M of revenue YoY; RIN revenue declined by $3.6M on lower prices/volumes/share of RIN values, partially offset by LCFS timing (+$4.0M) .

Financial Results

Core P&L vs Prior Periods

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$104.9 $109.3 $103.8
GAAP EPS ($)$(0.08) $(0.13) $(0.60)
Non-GAAP EPS ($)$0.02 $0.02 $0.01
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$21.3 $23.6 $17.1

YoY Comparisons (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$103.7 $103.8
GAAP EPS ($)$(0.08) $(0.60)
Non-GAAP EPS ($)$(0.01) $0.01
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$12.8 $17.1

Fuel & Services KPIs (Volumes)

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
RNG Gallons Sold (MM GGEs)58.0 50.6
Conventional NG (MM GGEs)17.0 16.1
Total Fuel Volume (MM GGEs)75.0 66.7
O&M Services Volume (MM GGEs)65.4 61.6

Sources of Revenue (Detail)

Revenue Source ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Fuel Sales (net of Amazon warrant charges)$68.2 $76.3
Change in Fair Value of Derivatives$1.6 $(0.6)
RIN Credits$8.8 $5.2
LCFS Credits$(0.2) $3.8
AFTC$5.4 $—
Station Construction Sales$5.6 $5.6
Volume-related O&M Services$13.7 $12.8
Other Services$0.6 $0.7
Total Revenue$103.7 $103.8

Consensus vs Actuals (S&P Global)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue Consensus ($USD Millions)*$103.0$102.6$100.8
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$104.9 $109.3 $103.8
Primary EPS Consensus ($)*$(0.006)$0.00$(0.195)
Primary EPS Actual ($)$0.02 $0.02 $0.01

Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (as of Q4 2024)Current Guidance (as of Q1 2025)Change
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)FY 2025$(160) to $(155) $(225) to $(220) Lowered (wider loss) due to booked goodwill impairment and accelerated depreciation
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$50 to $55 $50 to $55 Maintained
Amazon Warrant Charges ($USD Millions)FY 2025 (assumption)~$53 ~$53 Maintained
Accelerated Depreciation ($USD Millions)FY 2025 (assumption)Up to ~$55 (Pilot LNG removal) ~$55 (Pilot LNG removal) Maintained
Goodwill Impairment ($USD Millions)FY 2025Not contemplated $64.3 included (booked) Added

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Heavy-duty trucking (Cummins X15N)Demo programs with JB Hunt; network readiness Expect early adoption; 3–5M gallons in 2025; breadth across 25+ fleets; Freightliner order book opening; pricing payback focus Breadth over size emphasized; cost reductions targeting ~$75–80k incremental; Freightliner a lower price point; initial orders flowing Building breadth; adoption groundwork
Policy: AFTC & 45ZNot central in Q3 PRAFTC excluded from 2025 outlook; cautious on booking 45Z pending finalization; LCFS price path to low-$70s RNG Incentive Act (nozzle-tip $1/gal) advocacy; minimal 45Z booked in Q1; policy clarity seen as upside Policy remains key swing factor
RNG supply and environmental creditsRNG gallons grew in Q3; mixed LCFS/RIN pricing 2025 RIN price assumption ~$2.40; LCFS low-$70s; upstream dairies ramp Q1 supply constrained by weather; RIN down; LCFS up on timing; optimizing supply allocation to stations/customers Near-term supply normalization expected
Share repurchases & capital allocationNot highlightedCash $217M YE; CapEx ~$30M (stations) and ~$104M (upstream) in 2025 Repurchases resumed (~$26.1M capacity, programmatic via JPM) Opportunistic buybacks; prudence on upstream
CARB LCFS/Regulatory cadenceNot explicitExpect resolution of OAL pause; LCFS amendments reinstatement timing Continued engagement; anticipate supportive LCFS trajectory for pricing and pathways in 2025 Constructive but timing-sensitive

Management Commentary

  • “Our first quarter operating results, apart from the non-cash charges, resulted in a net increase in cash and investments… accommodating the adoption of the Cummins X15N engine… while also increasing RNG volumes from our dairy RNG projects” — Andrew J. Littlefair .
  • “These 2 non-cash items combined amounted to $115M of our GAAP loss of $135M… adjusted EBITDA… $17.1M vs $12.8M a year ago” — CFO Robert Vreeland .
  • “Tariffs have minimal direct impact on our business… our RNG is produced, transported and delivered to customers here in the U.S.” — Andrew J. Littlefair .
  • “We reinstated [buybacks] with ~$26M available… programmatically done” — CFO Robert Vreeland .

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance sensitivities: Upside from 45Z finalization and RNG Incentive Act; downside risk from tariff-related heavy-duty truck purchase delays; management remains “cautiously optimistic” .
  • Pricing/margins: Healthy oil-to-gas spread and strong core fueling margins expected to persist; revenue steady without AFTC .
  • X15N economics: Incremental truck cost targeted down to ~$75–80k to enable ~2–2.5-year payback; Freightliner’s lower price point helps adoption breadth .
  • Upstream RNG: Six operating dairy projects ramping; provisional LCFS pathways pending; upstream EBITDA expected to turn positive on select dairies into 2026 .
  • Capital allocation: 2025 CapEx ~$30M (stations) and ~$104M (upstream), with ~60% of upstream as JV contributions; prudent stance on greenfield M&A .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 beats: Revenue $103.8M vs $100.8M consensus*; Primary EPS $0.01 vs $(0.195) consensus* .
  • Prior quarters: Q4 2024 revenue $109.3M vs $102.6M consensus*; Primary EPS $0.02 vs $0.00 consensus* .
  • Estimate coverage: 6 revenue estimates and 4 EPS estimates for Q1 2025*; target price consensus ~$4.71 across 7 estimates*.
  • Implication: Consensus models likely need to reflect stronger core fueling margins and non-GAAP profitability offsetting environmental credit cadence and AFTC lapse; GAAP loss remains heavily non-cash.

Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Non-GAAP execution solid: Adjusted EBITDA +33% YoY and non-GAAP EPS positive despite RNG supply headwinds and absence of AFTC; focus on downstream margin resilience .
  • GAAP optics dominated by non-cash charges: Goodwill impairment and accelerated depreciation drove $(0.60) GAAP EPS; these do not reflect core cash generation, but widened 2025 GAAP loss guidance .
  • Adoption breadth over size: Early X15N penetration strategy prioritizes dozens of fleets and improved TCO via lower incremental cost—setting up 2026–2027 volume inflection .
  • Policy swing factors: Reinstatement of AFTC and final 45Z design could materially enhance 2025–2026 earnings power; CARB LCFS pathway/pricing normalization supports credit revenues .
  • Supply normalization likely: Weather-driven RNG constraints in Q1 should ease, with allocation optimization favoring stations and O&M customers; watch RIN price trajectory vs LCFS strength .
  • Balance sheet optionality: $226.6M cash/ST investments and resumed buybacks provide capital flexibility for growth and shareholder returns .
  • Trading setup: Near-term stock narrative tied to policy clarity (LCFS, 45Z), breadth of X15N orders (Freightliner ramp), and continued non-GAAP beats vs consensus—offset by GAAP headline noise from non-cash charges .