Executive Summary

Revenue beat, EPS inline on non-GAAP: Q2 2025 revenue $102.6M vs S&P Global consensus $99.7M; non-GAAP EPS $0.00 vs -$0.058 consensus. GAAP EPS was -$0.09. The revenue beat was driven by higher fuel sales and station construction, partially offset by higher Amazon warrant charges and the expiration of AFTC . Values with asterisk in estimates table from S&P Global.
Guidance raised: 2025 GAAP net loss guidance narrowed to $(217)-(212)M (from $(225)-(220)M), and Adjusted EBITDA raised to $60-$65M (from $50-$55M), reflecting stronger downstream trends and improving volume mix, while remaining cautious on LCFS/RIN pricing and dairy ramp timing .
Operating momentum: RNG gallons sold rose 7.5% YoY to 61.4M; cash and short-term investments increased to $240.8M; share repurchases resumed ($7.9M for ~4.9M shares), with $18.7M remaining capacity .
Upstream headwinds, downstream strength: RNG upstream Adjusted EBITDA remained negative as projects ramp; fuel distribution Adjusted EBITDA remained solid, supported by volumes and pricing; management highlighted breadth of X15N adoption and transit/waste wins as catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Solid top-line and volumes: Revenue grew to $102.6M (+4.7% YoY) and RNG gallons sold increased to 61.4M (+7.5% YoY) in Q2 2025, despite no AFTC contribution in 2025 .
Guidance raised on operational trends: 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook increased to $60–$65M and GAAP loss range narrowed; CFO cited stronger volume-related margins and improved mix as drivers, while acknowledging environmental credit volatility .
Strategic progress and liquidity: Closed a $29.5M ITC sale for four dairy projects; ended the quarter with $240.8M in cash and short-term investments; executed transit/waste RNG agreements (e.g., LA Metro, Trinity Metro, El Paso) supporting future RNG demand .

Quotes

“RNG remains the most immediate and cost-effective clean transportation fuel… All in all, another good quarter with good momentum looking forward.” — CEO Andrew Littlefair .
“We are raising our guidance for the full year 2025 for both our GAAP earnings and non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA.” — CFO Robert Vreeland .

What Went Wrong

Non-GAAP/credit dynamics mask profitability: Higher Amazon warrant contra-revenue ($17.4M vs $14.1M YoY), expiration of AFTC ($0 vs $6.0M YoY), and weaker LCFS (down $1.7M YoY) pressured reported results; combined RIN+LCFS revenue declined $2.0M YoY .
Upstream RNG losses persist: RNG equity method investments recorded negative Adjusted EBITDA of $(3.8)M in Q2 2025 as five of six operating dairies remain in ramp; management tempered 2025 upstream outlook and is taking corrective actions .
GAAP net loss widened YoY: Q2 2025 GAAP net loss of $(20.2)M vs $(16.3)M a year ago, reflecting higher Amazon warrant charges and equity-method losses; non-GAAP EPS fell to $0.00 from $0.01 YoY .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)	$109.3	$103.8	$102.6
GAAP Net Income ($M)	$(30.2)	$(135.0)	$(20.2)
GAAP EPS	$(0.13)	$(0.60)	$(0.09)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$23.6	$17.1	$17.5

Year-over-Year (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)	$98.0	$102.6
GAAP Net Income ($M)	$(16.3)	$(20.2)
GAAP EPS	$(0.07)	$(0.09)
Non-GAAP EPS	$0.01	$0.00
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$18.9	$17.5

Q2 2025 vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($M)	$99.66*	$102.61	+$2.95M (+3.0%)*
Primary EPS	-$0.058*	$0.00	+$0.058*
EBITDA ($M)	$11.49*	$1.08*	-$10.41M*

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global. Note: Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $17.51M, which is not directly comparable to S&P’s standardized EBITDA metric .

Segment and Mix

Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Fuel Distribution	$20.06	$21.32
RNG Upstream (equity method)	$(2.98)	$(3.81)
Total Adjusted EBITDA	$17.09	$17.51

KPIs and Credit Revenue (oldest → newest)

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
RNG Gallons Sold (M)	62.0	50.6	61.4
Total Fuel Gallons (M)	78.5	66.7	76.3
O&M Services Volume (M GGEs)	64.4	61.6	64.9

Environmental Credits Revenue ($M)	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
RINs	$9.6	$5.2	$9.2
LCFS	$3.9	$3.8	$2.7
AFTC	$6.1	$0.0	$0.0

Other mix notes: Amazon warrant contra-revenue increased to $17.4M in Q2 2025 vs $14.1M in Q2 2024; station construction sales rose to $7.8M vs $5.6M YoY .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
GAAP Net Loss	FY 2025	$(225)M to $(220)M	$(217)M to $(212)M	Raised (narrowed loss)
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$50M to $55M	$60M to $65M	Raised
Amazon Warrant Charges	FY 2025	~$53M	~$63M	Raised
Fuel Distribution Adj. EBITDA	FY 2025	$59.5M–$61.5M	$72M–$74M	Raised
RNG Upstream Adj. EBITDA	FY 2025	$(9.5)M–$(6.5)M	$(12)M–$(9)M	Lowered

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
Heavy-duty trucking adoption (Cummins X15N)	Expect adoption later in 2025; macro/regulatory uncertainty noted . Q1 emphasized focus on accommodating X15N despite volatility .	Adoption breadth improving; incremental cost down to ~$75k enabling ~2-year payback; Freightliner entry supportive; macro headwinds and CA regulatory uncertainty slowing overall truck sales .	Gradual improvement, still slower than hoped
Environmental credits (RIN/LCFS)	Q4 LCFS up YoY; AFTC still present in 2024 . Q1 saw LCFS timing boost; RIN weaker .	RIN revenue +77% QoQ; LCFS -20% QoQ; management expects LCFS to firm through 2H25 into 2026 .	Mixed near-term; improving medium-term LCFS outlook
RNG upstream (dairy) ramp	2024 losses as projects ramp .	6 projects operating; 5 in ramp; Texas (Del Rio/South Fork) positive EBITDA and increasing; big Idaho project nearing production by year-end; tempered 2025 upstream outlook .	Execution progressing; near-term drag, better 2026 exit
Policy/45Z and “One Big Beautiful Bill”	—	45Z recognition of negative CI dairy RNG expected; timing likely fall for guidance, effective January; positive tailwind; RNG recognized legislatively as viable solution .	Constructive policy tailwind building
Transit/waste customer momentum	RNG gallons up; numerous customer wins in 2024 .	Multiple new transit/municipal RNG deals (LA Metro, Trinity Metro, El Paso, etc.), adding >20M gallons annually .	Strengthening, supports base volumes

Management Commentary

Strategic positioning: “Clean Energy is well positioned to continue to lead the exciting RNG space with a growing portfolio of production facilities, the largest supply of RNG, the most expansive fueling network” .
Demand/price equation: “Price still wins the day … easy to get fleets’ attention when … up to a $2 a gallon savings on fuel” .
X15N adoption: “The incremental price… has come substantially down… closer around $75,000… gets you to… two-year type payback” .
45Z policy tailwind: “Feel very bullish… should be meaningful… likely [guidance] October, November” .
Upstream progress: “Six dairy projects operating… Texas [Del Rio/South Fork] producing/commissioning; Idaho nearing mechanical completion; both expected by year-end” .
CEO summary: “RNG remains the most immediate and cost-effective clean transportation fuel… another good quarter with good momentum” .

Q&A Highlights

45Z timing and magnitude: Management expects meaningful benefit from negative CI dairy RNG; timing of Treasury guidance likely in the fall, effective January .
X15N commercialization: Broader-based smaller orders; incremental cost down to ~$75k supports ~2-year paybacks; Freightliner’s offering is positive .
Dairy project ramp: Commissioning/ramp can be ~6 months; corrective actions underway; Del Rio producing positive EBITDA; expecting improved run rates into year-end .
LCFS outlook: New rules constructive; expect gradual firming through remainder of 2025 into 2026 as bank draws down .
Guidance framing: Raised FY25 GAAP and Adjusted EBITDA guidance, but with caution on vehicle adoption, RIN/LCFS volatility, and upstream ramp timing .
Amazon volumes: Higher Amazon warrant charges vs prior outlook indicative of increased Amazon fueling volumes and broader trucking volume growth expectations .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue beat by ~$2.95M (+3.0%); non-GAAP EPS beat by ~$0.058; S&P standardized EBITDA missed vs consensus, whereas company Adjusted EBITDA was $17.5M (not comparable) . Values with asterisk in the estimates table were retrieved from S&P Global.

Where estimates may need to adjust:

Upward for FY25 Adjusted EBITDA and fuel distribution margins given raised outlook and improved station volumes/mix .
Potential downward revisions to RNG upstream contribution in 2025 given tempered outlook (more negative Adj. EBITDA range) .
Environmental credits: Analysts may refine LCFS trajectory upward for 2026 while maintaining conservative near-term RIN/LCFS assumptions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Positive revenue surprise with raised full-year guide; downstream remains the earnings engine while upstream ramps; watch for sequential margin stability and mix improvements into 2H25 .
Environmental credit dynamics remain volatile; near-term LCFS softness offset by RIN rebound; management expects LCFS firming to support 2026 earnings power .
Execution catalysts: commissioning/production start at South Fork (TX) and Idaho dairies by year-end; continued transit/waste contract wins underpin base RNG volumes .
Heavy-duty trucking is a medium-term call option: X15N adoption breadth improving, economics better with ~$75k incremental and ~2-year payback; macro/CA regulatory clarity will influence timing .
Liquidity and capital recycling: $240.8M cash/ST investments; ITC monetization provides upstream funding; opportunistic buybacks continue with remaining capacity .
Watch the Amazon warrant: higher charges signal growing Amazon volumes but depress reported revenue; focus on underlying volume-related margins and Adjusted EBITDA .
Risk checks: upstream ramp pace, credit price volatility, and truck sales macro/regulatory backdrop remain the key swing factors for FY25 trajectory .

Appendix: Detail Tables and Sources

Sources of Revenue — Q2 2024 vs Q2 2025

Line item ($M)	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Fuel sales (incl. Amazon charges)	$57.4	$67.9
Change in fair value of derivatives	$0.1	$(0.5)
RIN credits	$9.5	$9.2
LCFS credits	$4.4	$2.7
AFTC	$6.0	$0.0
Station construction	$5.6	$7.8
Total revenue	$98.0	$102.6

Notable Non-GAAP Adjustments (Q2 2025)

Amazon warrant contra-revenue: $17.4M; Non-GAAP EPS: $0.00; Adjusted EBITDA: $17.5M .

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary