Executive Summary

Q4 FY25 was strong: net sales $2.11B and diluted EPS $1.35; adjusted EPS $1.37. CMC delivered core EBITDA $291.4M and a 13.8% core EBITDA margin, up sequentially and YoY, with North America steel product margins expanding and record EBG performance .
Versus consensus, CMC beat on revenue and EPS; EBITDA was roughly in line to slightly below. Management guided Q1 FY26 consolidated results “generally consistent” with Q4, with NA margins rising, EBG down sequentially (seasonality) but up YoY, and Europe near breakeven excluding a ~$15M CO2 credit . Consensus values marked with asterisks below are from S&P Global.
Strategic catalysts: announced Foley Products acquisition ($1.84B; 10.3x 2025E EBITDA; 9.2x post tax step-up) alongside the pending CP&P deal, creating a scaled precast platform with expected EBITDA synergies of $25–$30M by year three and pro forma margin accretion (+210 bps core EBITDA margin) .
Balance sheet and capital allocation: $1.0B cash and nearly $1.9B liquidity; $50M Q4 buybacks; dividend maintained at $0.18 (244th consecutive payment). FY26 capex guided ~$600M; target deleveraging to <2x net leverage within 18 months after closing Foley and CP&P .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- “Substantial improvement sequentially and year-over-year,” driven by NA steel margin recovery, record EBG (Tensar) results, and modest improvement in Europe aided by CO2 credits .
- NA steel product metal margin rose $69/ton QoQ; exit rates ~$31/ton above Q4 average, positioning for Q1 margin expansion .
- TAG program outperformed: ~$50M EBITDA benefits in FY25; management now targets >$150M run-rate annualized EBITDA benefit by FY26 with virtually no capital outlay .
What Went Wrong
- Downstream margins over scrap declined versus prior year; backlog volumes fell mid-single digits YoY due to commercial selectivity, though still healthy .
- Europe improvement partly dependent on government CO2 credits ($30.7M in Q4 and ~$15M expected in Q1), with profitability around breakeven excluding credits (seasonal maintenance also weighing) .
- Litigation-related charges continued (Q4 pre-tax $3.8M interest on judgment) and adjusted metrics recast to exclude unrealized commodity hedge impacts, complicating comparability .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance vs prior quarters and estimates

Metric	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025
Net Sales ($USD)	$1,754,376,000	$2,019,984,000	$2,114,518,000
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$0.22	$0.73	$1.35
Adjusted EPS	$0.26	$0.74	$1.37
Core EBITDA Margin %	7.5%	10.1%	13.8%
Consensus Revenue ($USD)	$1,752,846,580*	$2,066,466,270*	$2,088,296,870*
Consensus Primary EPS	$0.304*	$0.849*	$1.341*
Consensus EBITDA ($USD)	$128,744,030*	$217,247,650*	$289,734,150*

Values marked with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Q4 2025 actual vs prior quarter, prior year, and consensus

Metric	Prior Quarter (Q3 2025)	Prior Year (Q4 2024)	Q4 2025 Actual	Consensus
Net Sales ($USD)	$2,019,984,000	$1,996,149,000	$2,114,518,000	$2,088,296,870*
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$0.73	$0.90	$1.35	$1.341*
Adjusted EPS	$0.74	$0.84	$1.37	$1.341*
Core EBITDA Margin %	10.1%	11.0%	13.8%	N/A

Values marked with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown (Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA)

Segment	Q2 2025 Net Sales	Q3 2025 Net Sales	Q4 2025 Net Sales	Q2 2025 Adj. EBITDA	Q3 2025 Adj. EBITDA	Q4 2025 Adj. EBITDA
North America Steel Group	$1,386,848,000	$1,562,286,000	$1,616,078,000	$128,818,000	$179,936,000	$239,416,000
Emerging Businesses Group	$158,864,000	$197,454,000	$221,753,000	$23,519,000	$40,912,000	$50,630,000
Europe Steel Group	$198,029,000	$247,590,000	$263,294,000	$752,000	$3,593,000	$39,098,000
Corporate & Other	$10,635,000	$12,654,000	$13,393,000	$(34,852,000)	$(36,952,000)	$(50,716,000)
Total	$1,754,376,000	$2,019,984,000	$2,114,518,000	$126,373,000	$187,489,000	$278,428,000

Key operating KPIs

KPI	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025
NA Steel Products Metal Margin ($/ton)	$476	$499	$568
Europe Steel Products Metal Margin ($/ton)	$275	$293	$317
NA Finished Steel Tons (Steel + Downstream, ‘000)	1,044 (746+298)	1,153 (798+355)	1,154 (788+366)
EBG Adjusted EBITDA Margin %	14.8%	20.7%	22.8%

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Consolidated Results	Q1 FY26	N/A	Generally consistent with Q4 FY25	New
NA Steel Group Adjusted EBITDA Margin	Q1 FY26	Q4 FY25 margin to increase sequentially on higher steel margins	Expected to increase sequentially on higher steel product margins over scrap	Maintained directionally
EBG Results	Q1 FY26	Q4 FY25 to improve sequentially and YoY	Sequential decline (seasonality), YoY improvement	Lower sequential, higher YoY
Europe CO2 Credit	Q4 FY25 / Q1 FY26	~$28–$30.7M in Q4 and second tranche in Q1	~$15M credit in Q1 FY26; ex-credit adj. EBITDA around breakeven	Lower credit in Q1
Effective Tax Rate	FY26	N/A	4–8% full-year; minimal U.S. federal cash taxes in FY26 and much of FY27	New
Capex	FY26	FY25 capex $425–$475M (Q3 slides)	~$600M total; ~$350M for WV micromill; EBG growth projects	Raised FY26 capex
Dividend	Ongoing	$0.18 per share (Q3 declaration for Jul 9)	$0.18 per share payable Nov 13; 244th consecutive dividend	Maintained
Deleveraging Target	Post-acquisitions	Net debt/Adj. EBITDA <2.0x target (framework)	Reduce from ~2.7x at close to <2.0x within 18 months	Affirmed timeline

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
TAG Program	On pace to deliver FY25 benefits; >$100M run-rate identified	~$50M FY25 benefits achieved; targeting >$150M run-rate by FY26	Accelerating execution
Precast Platform (CP&P, Foley)	Framework for prudent inorganic growth; target assets with >20% EBITDA margins	Announced Foley ($1.84B); combined platform (#3 in U.S.), 35 facilities/14 states; synergies $25–$30M by year three; margin accretion +210 bps	Strategic step-change
Tariffs/Trade Case	Elimination of Sec. 232 exemptions; market share of imports outlined	ITC moved rebar case vs Algeria, Bulgaria, Egypt, Vietnam forward; preliminary DOC ruling expected late 2025/early 2026; prices up on affected sizes	Supportive backdrop
NA Demand & Margins	Bright spots emerging; pipeline robust; margins expected to inflect	DMI record high; finished steel shipments +3% y/y; steel margins expanded; exit rates >period average	Improving
Europe	Breakeven with rebates; green shoots	$30.7M CO2 credit; margins highest in >2 years; Q1 ~$15M credit then breakeven ex-credit	Gradual recovery
AI/Energy/Reshoring Tailwinds	Structural investment themes outlined	Continued emphasis; >$2T corporate investments announced in 2025 across AI/manufacturing/energy	Building catalysts

Management Commentary

“Fiscal 2025 was a pivotal year… we invested in our people… outperformed on our TAG… made meaningful progress on our micro mill investments… pending acquisitions of Foley and CP&P will establish a powerful new growth platform” — CEO Peter Matt .
“We expect consolidated financial results in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 to be generally consistent with those of the fourth quarter… NA adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to increase… Europe will receive ~$15M CO2 credit; excluding this, adjusted EBITDA likely around breakeven” — CEO Peter Matt .
“The sum of CP&P and Foley… expected to generate ~$250M adjusted EBITDA in calendar 2025 with margins >34%… increase combined contribution from EBG+Precast to >32% of segment adjusted EBITDA” — CFO Paul Lawrence .
“We modified adjusted EBITDA to exclude unrealized gains/losses on undesignated commodity derivatives” — CFO Paul Lawrence .
“We are done for now [on M&A]… focus on integration and deleveraging to <2x within 18 months” — CEO Peter Matt .

Q&A Highlights

Demand mix: Infrastructure remained very strong; energy/data centers/institutional robust; commercial retail weaker; residential constrained by rates but likely to turn with cuts — CEO .
Q1 outlook context: NA to have a great quarter; Europe lower CO2 credit and seasonal outage; EBG more seasonal due to site prep (Tensar) — CFO .
Precast strategy: Near-term focus on integrating Foley/CP&P and deleveraging; long-term bolt-ons after leverage reduces; several hundred million dollars of EBITDA target nationally — CEO .
Margins: Foley’s margins materially higher than CP&P due to operating model; expect margin improvement at CP&P over 3–5 years aided by ~$5M/year targeted capex — CEO .
Capital allocation: Dividend unchanged; share repurchases to slow until leverage below 2x, then ramp; strong FCF aided by low cash taxes and capex wind-down on WV mill — CEO/CFO .

Estimates Context

Q4 FY25: Revenue $2.114B vs consensus $2.088B — beat; Primary EPS $1.37 vs $1.341 — beat; EBITDA $286.2M vs $289.7M — slight miss. Values marked with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
Q3 FY25: Revenue $2.020B vs $2.066B — miss; EPS $0.74 vs $0.849 — miss; EBITDA $196.5M vs $217.2M — miss. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Q2 FY25: Revenue $1.754B vs $1.752B — slight beat; EPS $0.26 vs $0.304 — miss; EBITDA $122.6M vs $128.7M — miss. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Consensus values marked with asterisks are from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Margin inflection underway: NA steel product margins rising with exit rates above Q4 average; expect sequential margin expansion in Q1 FY26 — supportive for near-term trading .
EBG’s record quarter and sustained high-teens-to-20%+ margins provide a stabilizing, higher-return earnings mix; watch seasonal pullback in Q1 but YoY growth expected .
Europe improvement is real but partially credit-aided; profit near breakeven excluding ~$15M Q1 credit — monitor underlying margin recovery as imports remain subdued .
Strategic pivot to precast is transformative: Foley/CP&P add scale and higher, less volatile margins; synergy plan ($25–$30M EBITDA) and pro forma margin accretion are medium-term catalysts; integration execution is key .
Capital allocation discipline: dividend maintained; buybacks to resume once leverage <2x; FY26 capex ~$600M with WV micromill completion driving capex normalization thereafter — supports FCF and deleveraging path .
Litigation headwind now quantifiable: Q4 interest expense ~$3.8M; FY25 after-tax charges ~$274M — adjusted metrics recast to exclude unrealized commodity hedges improve comparability going forward .
Near-term stock drivers: estimate beats on revenue/EPS, margin trajectory, tariff/trade case developments (DOC preliminary late 2025/early 2026), and updates on Foley/CP&P closing and synergy realization .

COMMERCIAL METALS Co (CMC)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary