Executive Summary

Q1 2025 missed Wall Street on revenue and EPS: revenue $187.3M vs $190.1M consensus (–1.4%), EPS –$1.88 vs –$1.29 consensus; Adjusted EBITDA was $3.5M while S&P’s EBITDA consensus was $3.75M, implying a miss; management cited worsening macro and new tariffs depressing advertiser sentiment . Estimates marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global*.
Digital remained the bright spot: digital revenue +6.1% YoY to $36.6M (20% of total); Digital Marketing Services (DMS) +30%; streaming +4%; ex-Daily Wire, digital +20% and podcasting +39% .
Cost discipline continues: another $7.5M of annualized fixed cost reductions executed in Q1; liquidity solid with $52.7M cash; total debt principal $670.2M; net debt less discount $589.4M .
Outlook cautious: pacing down ~10% for Q2 (~5% ex-political, ex-Daily Wire, net of Bongino); FY25 CapEx maintained at $22.5M; management targets asset sale proceeds of $10–$15M in 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Digital growth and mix shift: digital revenue rose 6.1% YoY to $36.6M; digital represented 20% of total revenue; DMS revenue grew 30%, with total customers +41% and average order size +16% QoQ, per management .
- Ex-Daily Wire resiliency: excluding Daily Wire, digital revenue grew 20% and podcasting grew ~39% on new shows and growth in existing shows .
- Expense reduction/operational discipline: executed $7.5M in additional annualized fixed cost reductions in Q1, adding to $163M taken out since 2019; Q1 operating expenses declined YoY by ~$8M, supporting liquidity and deleveraging focus .
What Went Wrong
- Macro drag and tariffs: management cited new tariffs and government spending cuts as key drivers of weaker consumer sentiment and advertising pullbacks, especially in auto, retail, and CPG .
- National/network softness: despite strong sports, network underperformed due to weak general market demand; management expects Q2 network to perform worse than spot and worse than Q1 given tough comps and weak demand .
- Profitability compression: Adjusted EBITDA fell to $3.5M (from $8.4M YoY); net loss widened to –$32.4M (from –$14.2M YoY); EBITDA margin compressed to ~1.9% (vs ~11.5% in Q4) .

Financial Results

Q3 2024 → Q4 2024 → Q1 2025 trend

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)	$203.6	$218.6	$187.3
Diluted EPS ($)	–0.61	–13.60	–1.88
Net (Loss) Income ($M)	–$10.3	–$231.1	–$32.4
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$24.1	$25.0	$3.5
Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)	11.8% (calc from )	11.5% (calc from )	1.9% (calc from )

Q1 2025 actual vs consensus and YoY

Metric	Q1 2024	Q1 2025 Actual	Q1 2025 Consensus*	Beat/Miss
Revenue ($M)	$200.1	$187.3	$190.1*	Miss
Diluted EPS ($)	–0.85	–1.88	–1.29*	Miss
EBITDA/Adj. EBITDA ($M)	$8.4 (Adj.)	$3.5 (Adj.)	$3.75 (EBITDA)*	Miss

Note on definitions: Company reports Adjusted EBITDA; S&P Global’s EBITDA consensus/actual may reflect a different definition than company Adjusted EBITDA.

Segment revenue detail (Q1 YoY)

Segment ($M)	Q1 2024	Q1 2025	YoY Change
Spot	$90.6	$81.0	–10.6%
Network	$49.2	$43.9	–10.6%
Total Broadcast Radio	$139.7	$124.9	–10.6%
Digital	$34.4	$36.6	+6.1%
Other	$25.9	$25.9	+0.1%
Net Revenue	$200.1	$187.3	–6.4%

KPIs and balance sheet highlights

KPI / Item	Q1 2025
Digital as % of revenue	20%
DMS revenue growth	+30% YoY
Streaming	+4% YoY
Podcasting	–13% YoY; +39% ex-Daily Wire
Cash	$52.7M
Total debt principal (gross)	$670.2M
Total debt at maturity	$642.1M
Net debt less unamortized discount	$589.4M
CapEx	$5.5M in Q1

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total revenue pacing	Q2 2025	N/A	Down ~10% (≈5% ex-political, ex-Daily Wire, net of Bongino)	New
CapEx	FY 2025	$22.5M (prior commentary)	$22.5M (maintained)	Maintained
Asset sale proceeds	FY 2025	$10–$15M (prior commentary)	$10–$15M (still current view)	Maintained
Network performance vs spot	Q2 2025	N/A	Network expected to perform worse than spot and worse than Q1	New
Balance sheet focus	Ongoing	Net debt reduction (ongoing)	Net debt reduction (ongoing)	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3’24, Q4’24)	Current Period (Q1’25)	Trend
AI/Technology initiatives	Focus on content/digital growth; no specific AI called out in Q3 PR ; Q4 emphasized investing in DMS and evolving go-to-market	Deploying AI voice cloning in sales and AI chatbots in e-commerce to improve efficiency	Improving adoption
Macro/tariffs/advertiser demand	Q3: market challenges; in-line with pacing/analyst estimates	New tariffs + gov’t spending cuts hurting sentiment; pullbacks in auto, retail, CPG; pacing down ~10%	Deteriorating
Digital Marketing Services	Q3: +38% YoY	+30% YoY; customers +41%, AOV +16%; aiming >$100M run-rate by end of next year	Strong, sustained growth
Podcasting lineup changes	Q3: stable mix; sports and news/talk noted	Replaced Bongino with Vince Coglianese; podcast traction exceeded expectations	Stabilizing post-DW
Sports content monetization	Q3: premium sports properties; NFL/NCAA	All-time revenue highs in NFL playoffs and Super Bowl ; continued NCAA coverage PRs in March/April	Strong
Cost reductions	Q3: ongoing expense reductions	Additional $7.5M annualized fixed cost cuts in Q1; ~$8M YoY opex reduction	Ongoing discipline
Regulatory/legal	Q3: none highlighted	Optimism on potential FCC deregulation timeline post commissioner confirmation	Potential tailwind
Asset sales	Q3: N/A	Expect $10–$15M 2025 proceeds; Nashville land a focus	Execution pending

Management Commentary

“We delivered revenue in line with pacing guidance despite worsening economic headwinds reflecting…tariffs that have depressed both consumer and advertiser sentiment…We…accelerated growth in our digital marketing services business, which was up 30%…and drove additional annualized cost reductions of $7.5 million.” — Mary Berner, CEO .
“Our digital businesses…grew 6% year-over-year even with the loss of our Daily Wire relationship…DMS…was up 30%…driven by growth in total customers, up 41%, average campaign order size, up 16%…” .
“While the first quarter is seasonally our low point…our aggressive working capital management allowed us to maintain ample liquidity with $53 million of cash on hand…our focus will remain on net debt reduction…” — Mary Berner .
“We are currently pacing down approximately 10% and down approximately 5% ex political, ex Daily Wire and net of the Bongino impact.” — Francisco Lopez‑Balboa, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Network weakness driven by broad national demand softness rather than programming changes; management expects Q2 network to underperform spot and Q1 given tough comps and weak demand .
Pacing slippage late in Q1 as tariffs took effect and orders came later; Q1 finished slightly worse than mid-single-digit down indicated mid-quarter .
Regulatory outlook constructive: potential FCC deregulation once the fifth commissioner is confirmed; notice of proposed rulemaking could follow by late summer/fall .
Asset monetization: small land sales in Q1 (<$1M); still targeting $10–$15M proceeds in 2025; Nashville land a focus .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus*: revenue $187.3M vs $190.1M (miss); EPS –$1.88 vs –$1.29 (miss); EBITDA $3.5M (company Adjusted EBITDA) vs SPGI EBITDA consensus $3.75M (miss). SPGI “actual” EBITDA shows $2.49M, which may reflect a definition differing from company Adjusted EBITDA; use revenue and EPS for cleanest comparisons .
Given macro deterioration and pacing down ~10% into Q2, Street estimates for Q2 and FY may need to move lower, especially for network and national advertising, partially offset by stronger DMS growth and cost actions .
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Metric (Q1 2025)	Actual	Consensus*	Delta
Revenue ($M)	$187.3	$190.1*	–$2.8M
Primary EPS ($)	–1.88	–1.29*	–$0.59
EBITDA/Adj. EBITDA ($M)	$3.5 (Adj.)	$3.75 (EBITDA)*	–$0.25

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term pressure: Macro/tariffs and late order timing are driving weaker pacing (down ~10% for Q2), with network likely underperforming; risk to near-term revenue/EPS trajectory remains elevated .
Offense in digital: DMS momentum (30% growth; customers +41%) and streaming monetization improvements support mix shift and medium-term durability; management targets >$100M run-rate by end of next year for DMS .
Cost discipline a buffer: Incremental $7.5M fixed cost cuts and continued opex controls help protect liquidity and fund growth initiatives .
Balance sheet watch: Liquidity solid ($52.7M cash) with focus on net debt reduction and potential $10–$15M asset sale proceeds in 2025; monitor execution and timing .
Regulatory optionality: Potential FCC deregulation could be an industry tailwind; timing remains uncertain but trajectory is positive per management .
Stock setup: Narrative dominated by macro-driven ad demand weakness vs. improving digital mix and cost controls; catalysts include evidence of demand stabilization, DMS outperformance, asset sale execution, and clarity on FCC actions .

Footnote: Asterisk-marked values are from S&P Global consensus/actuals and may use definitions that differ from company-reported metrics. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

CUMULUS MEDIA INC (CMLS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary