Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered a clear clinical win: tovecimig (DLL4 x VEGF-A) met the primary endpoint in randomized Phase 2/3 BTC, with 17.1% ORR vs 5.3% for paclitaxel (p=0.031), and markedly lower PD rates (16.2% vs 42.1%) .
Financially, Compass reported GAAP net loss of $16.6M and diluted EPS of -$0.12; R&D rose 37% YoY to $13.1M and G&A rose 51% YoY to $4.9M; cash and marketable securities ended at $113M with runway into 2027 .
Versus Wall Street, EPS modestly missed consensus (-$0.12 actual vs -$0.111 consensus*), while revenue was in line (no revenue; consensus $0*) [GetEstimates].
Near-term catalysts: prespecified analyses of PFS, OS, and DoR expected in Q4; ongoing FDA interactions and BLA-ready CMC work, plus front-line BTC IST enrolling at MD Anderson .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Tovecimig met the primary endpoint (ORR) in BTC with statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement (17.1% vs 5.3% ORR; p=0.031), plus markedly lower PD rates (16.2% vs 42.1%) .
Management highlighted rigorous BICR review and RECIST 1.1 compliance, noting confirmatory scans are not required in randomized trials; scans were centrally reviewed, “as rigorous as you can get” .
Strong balance sheet and runway: $113M cash/marketable securities; runway into 2027 supports execution across programs (tovecimig, CTX‑471, CTX‑8371, CTX‑10726) .

What Went Wrong

EPS missed consensus slightly (-$0.12 vs -$0.111*) amid higher spend; R&D up $3.6M YoY (manufacturing for tovecimig and CTX‑10726 +$2.5M; additional personnel +$0.9M), G&A up $1.7M YoY (personnel +$1.3M incl. $1.0M SBC) [GetEstimates].
Investor expectations may have been for higher ORR enabling accelerated approval immediately; management acknowledged the market’s mixed reaction and emphasized totality of data including forthcoming PFS/OS .
OS analysis delayed due to fewer-than-modeled events; median follow-up >14 months with OS analysis likely in early Q4, pushing timelines for full dataset disclosure .

Financial Results

Current vs Prior Two Quarters (chronological: oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Licensing Revenue ($USD Millions)	$0.00	$0.85	$0.00 (no revenue line presented)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)	$8.61	$13.03	$13.05
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)	$3.63	$3.54	$4.91
Other Income ($USD Millions)	$1.76	$1.54	$1.33
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$10.48	$15.03	$16.63
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.08)	$(0.11)	$(0.12)
Cash & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)	$135.40	$126.72 (Cash $43.48; Mkt Sec $83.24)	$112.64 (Cash $41.05; Mkt Sec $71.59)

Q1 YoY Comparison

Metric	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)	$9.52	$13.05
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)	$3.25	$4.91
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$10.79	$16.63
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.08)	$(0.12)

Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (Q1 2025)

Metric	Consensus	Actual
EPS ($USD)	$(0.111)*	$(0.12)
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$0.00*	$0.00 (no revenue recognized)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Clinical KPIs (BTC trial – COMPANION‑002, randomized; 2:1 tovecimig+pacl vs pacl)

KPI	Tovecimig + Paclitaxel	Paclitaxel Alone	p‑value
Overall Response Rate (ORR)	17.1%	5.3%	0.031
Progressive Disease (PD) Rate	16.2%	42.1%	N/A

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Cash Runway	Through Q1 2027	“Runway into 2027” (Q4 2024)	“Runway into 2027; ended Q1 with $113M”	Maintained
BTC Trial Secondary Endpoints (PFS/OS/DoR)	Readout Timing	Top-line ORR end of Q1 2025; secondary endpoints TBD	Analyses expected Q4 2025 (OS likely early Q4)	Updated timeline
Front-line BTC IST (MD Anderson)	Enrollment	IST initiation Q1 2025	First patient dosed; actively enrolling	Progressed
CTX‑10726 (PD‑1 x VEGF‑A)	IND	IND by YE 2025	Pre‑IND completed; IND filing expected Q4 2025	Confirmed timeline
CTX‑8371 (PD‑1 x PD‑L1)	Phase 1 Data	Preliminary data 2H 2025	Fourth dosing cohort; data expected 2H 2025	Maintained
CTX‑471 (CD137)	Phase 2 Start	Mid‑2025 initiation	Basket in NCAM/CD56 tumors expected 2H 2025	Slight schedule detail

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in the repository. Management commentary from the May 8, 2025 Citizens JMP Life Sciences Conference is used for current-period narrative.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
BTC efficacy (tovecimig)	Top-line ORR readout targeted for end Q1 2025; trial fully enrolled	ORR 17.1% vs 5.3% (p=0.031); PD rate much lower; awaiting PFS/OS/DoR in Q4	Positive; building to full dataset
Regulatory strategy	Designing randomized trial; no immediate AA claims	FDA interactions continuing; AA not imminent; focus on totality incl. PFS/OS; BLA‑ready CMC underway	Clarifying path; data-driven
Market opportunity (BTC)	Emphasized unmet need; front-line SOC includes IO	~23k U.S. BTC patients; ~15k likely 2L; multi‑billion market; few targeted options for ~85% of patients	Expanding TAM framing
Manufacturing/CMC	Advancing programs; runway supports execution	U.S.-based CMO; CMC aligned with clinical timelines toward year-end	Operational readiness
PD‑1 x VEGF‑A (CTX‑10726)	IND by YE 2025	Pre‑IND done; IND Q4 2025; claims higher PD‑1 blockade potency vs peers	On track; differentiation
CD137 (CTX‑471)	Durable responses; NCAM/CD56 biomarker correlation	NCAM+ basket study starting; monotherapy responses in post‑PD‑1 patients reiterated	Biomarker-led expansion
PD‑1 x PD‑L1 (CTX‑8371)	Dose escalation cohorts; no DLTs	Fourth cohort; unique MoA includes PD‑1 cleavage; data 2H 2025	Progressing; mechanistic differentiation

Management Commentary

“These positive data reinforce the potential for tovecimig to fill a striking gap in the treatment paradigm for patients with BTC. We expect to share analyses of the secondary endpoints, including PFS, OS and DoR, in the fourth quarter of this year.” — CEO Thomas Schuetz .
On RECIST 1.1 rigor: “In randomized trials… a second scan is not required… What it does suggest is… blinded independent central readers. All of the scans that we had from the study were confirmed by blinded independent central review.” — CEO .
On OS timeline and effect: “We have more than 14 months of median follow-up… OS analysis would not occur probably till the beginning of Q4… It’s quite likely that we’re seeing a treatment effect just based on cumulative mortality.” — CEO .
On market size: “23,000 patients with BTC estimated in the United States in 2025… about two‑thirds… make it to second-line therapy… fully penetrated market is a multi‑billion dollar annual market.” — CEO .
On pipeline cadence and cash: “Finished Q1 with about $113 million in cash… runway… into 2027… key milestones… PFS and OS readout… basket study for 471… phase one data for 8371… IND filing for 10726.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Investor concern on ORR magnitude and AA timing: Management acknowledged mixed market reaction and emphasized totality of evidence and forthcoming PFS/OS before AA discussions .
Regulatory and CMC readiness: Engaging FDA; BLA‑ready CMC work in progress; U.S.‑based contract manufacturer; timelines aligned with clinical milestones .
Competitive landscape: No labeled second‑line BTC therapy in U.S.; targeted options (FGFR2, IDH1, HER2) cover ~15% of patients, leaving ~85% without labeled therapy .
TAM and commercialization: Multi‑billion potential; preparing to commercialize, while evaluating strategic options .
Mechanistic differentiation: CTX‑8371 engages cells and cleaves PD‑1 on exhausted T‑cells; CTX‑10726 designed for more potent PD‑1 blockade than peers .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 EPS was slightly below consensus (actual $(0.12) vs $(0.111)), reflecting higher R&D and G&A; revenue inline at $0 [GetEstimates] .
With upcoming PFS/OS/DoR in Q4, estimates may need to incorporate potential PFS benefit and timing of regulatory interactions; spending likely remains elevated with IND and CMC activities .