Executive Summary

Q1 2025 revenue and EPS declined year over year as expected given a truck program phase-out and softer powersports demand; however, gross margin expanded to 19.2% (up 220 bps YoY; up 340 bps QoQ), and free cash flow was positive ($4.3M) on disciplined cost control and mix benefits .
Results missed thin Wall Street consensus: revenue $61.4M vs $68.5M consensus and diluted EPS $0.25 vs $0.33; coverage was one estimate each, highlighting low sell-side attention and outsized headline impact from a small sample . Consensus values from S&P Global.
Management tightened near-term outlook: H1 2025 revenue now down 10–15% (prior 5–10%) driven by tooling revenue timing shifting to H2 and weaker truck demand; full-year revenue guidance withdrawn, but gross margin guide maintained at 17–19% for FY25 .
Strategic progress: $15M of annual new business wins in Q1 (two-thirds SMC materials), with ~$5M of 2025 revenue expected beginning in Q2; on‑time delivery 99.3% and sub‑100 ppm quality metrics underscore execution resilience .
Potential stock catalysts: H2 ramp in tooling and program launches, margin durability in the 17–19% range, SMC material sales with faster quote‑to‑cash, and ongoing buybacks/M&A optionality (term debt/TTM EBITDA ~0.65x) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Margin resilience: Gross margin expanded to 19.2% (vs 17.0% YoY; +340 bps QoQ), with adjusted EBITDA margin at 11.7% despite a 21.4% sales decline .
- Execution KPIs: “We achieved 99.3% on-time delivery and maintained a quality level under 100 ppm, both industry-leading metrics.” – CEO David Duvall .
- Strategic wins and cash generation: $15M of annualized new business (incl. $10M SMC) and $6.1M cash from operations produced $4.3M of free cash flow in the quarter .
What Went Wrong
- Top-line pressure: Net sales fell 21.4% YoY (truck program phase-out and powersports softness), driving a 41.9% EPS decline to $0.25 (adjusted diluted EPS $0.29) .
- Guidance reset: H1 2025 revenue outlook cut to down 10–15% (from 5–10%) on later tooling acceptance and softer truck/powersports demand amid macro/regulatory uncertainty .
- Mix/visibility headwinds: Tooling revenue (lower margin, sporadic timing) set to skew 2025 mix; customers are delaying large program decisions (truck footprint U.S. vs. Mexico), extending revenue timing .

Financial Results

Headline vs Consensus (Q1 2025)

Metric	Q1 2025 Actual	Consensus (S&P Global)*	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$61.45	$68.46 (1 est)*	-$7.01 (-10.2%)
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.25	$0.33 (1 est)*	-$0.08 (-24.2%)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Multi-Period Comparison

Metric	Q1 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Net Sales ($USD Millions)	$78.15	$72.99	$62.50	$61.45
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.43	$0.36	$0.00	$0.25
Gross Margin %	17.0%	16.9%	15.8%	19.2%
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$4.73	$3.61	$0.87	$2.84
Operating Margin %	6.1%	4.9%	1.4%	4.6%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$8.74	$7.54	$5.73	$7.16
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %	11.2%	10.3%	9.2%	11.7%
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$3.76	$3.16	-$0.04	$2.18
Net Income Margin %	4.8%	4.3%	-0.1%	3.6%

Product Sales by Market (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Market	Q1 2024 ($USD Millions)	Q1 2025 ($USD Millions)
Medium and heavy-duty truck	$41.51	$29.56
Powersports	$18.86	$14.21
Building products	$6.55	$6.38
Industrial and utilities	$3.35	$5.37
All other	$5.57	$5.50
Net Product Revenue	$75.83	$61.01

KPIs and Balance Sheet Snapshot (Q1 2025)

KPI	Q1 2025	Source
Cash from Operations	$6.10M
Free Cash Flow	$4.33M
Capital Expenditures	$1.77M
Total Liquidity	$94.5M (Cash $44.5M; Revolver $25M; Capex facility $25M)
Term Debt	$21.1M
Term Debt / TTM Adjusted EBITDA	0.65x
ROCE / ROCE ex Cash (TTM)	8.7% / 11.7%
On-time Delivery / Quality	99.3% / <100 ppm

Non-GAAP: Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EPS, FCF definitions and reconciliations provided by the company .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	H1 2025	Down 5%–10% YoY (Q4 call)	Down 10%–15% YoY (Q1 call)	Lowered
Revenue	FY 2025	“Essentially flat” vs 2024 (Q4 call)	No formal guidance (Q1 call)	Withdrawn
Gross Margin	FY 2025	17%–19% range	17%–19% range	Maintained
Tooling Revenue Timing	2025	Ramp starting Q2; heavier in Q3–Q4 (implied)	Shifted more to H2; “ramp up through 2025”	Later timing
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	~$10–$12M	~$10–$12M	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3–Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Truck cycle & 2027 EPA pre‑buy	Expect H2’25 upturn; 2026 peak (ACT/truck commentary)	ACT sees wide 2025 scenarios; customers expect no change to MY2027 emissions; management prepared to adapt	Mixed near-term; pre‑buy still likely
SMC materials & mix	SMC infrastructure savings, pipeline; wins in new markets	$10M of $15M Q1 wins in SMC; ~$5M 2025 revenue starting Q2	Accelerating
Tooling revenue timing	2025 tooling expected heavy; $30–$40M indication	Tooling acceptance shifted to H2; drives lower H1 guide	Later
Tariffs & trade	Pass‑through surcharge process planned	Majority materials U.S.-sourced; USMCA compliance; pass‑through plan reiterated	Managed risk
M&A pipeline	Active; expected to execute in 2025	Near miss to PE buyer; multiples 6–7x; pipeline “robust”	Ongoing, slightly delayed
Capital allocation	Buybacks in 2024 ($17.09 avg)	63k shares at $14.50 in Q1; ~$1M post‑quarter	Continuing
Manufacturing tech upgrades	—	Large press control/valving upgrades to improve throughput	Investing
Capacity & utilization	—	Capacity supports ≥$450M revenue; utilization under pressure at current volumes	Underutilized now

Management Commentary

“We delivered strong gross margin expansion, solid profitability, and positive free cash flow this quarter, despite the anticipated revenue decline previously communicated.” – CEO David Duvall .
“In Q1, we secured over $15 million in annual new business, including $10 million in the building products sector and $5 million in the electric vehicle battery sector... We expect this opportunity to generate approximately $5 million in revenue in 2025, with demand beginning in Q2.” – CEO David Duvall .
“For the first half of 2025, we now expect our revenues to be down between 10% and 15% compared to previous guidance of down 5% to 10%... mainly due to tooling sales shifting to the second half of the year and lower-than-expected product sales in heavy and medium-duty truck.” – Incoming CFO Alex Panda .
“Although full year revenue expectations are unclear, we believe we will be able to maintain gross margins in the 17% to 19% range for the full year as we adjust our variable costs with fluctuations in demand.” – CEO David Duvall .
“During the first quarter, we repurchased approximately 63,000 shares at an average price of $14.50.” – Incoming CFO Alex Panda ; “followed up after that with another $1 million post quarter” – CEO David Duvall .

Q&A Highlights

SMC capacity and pipeline: Management highlighted two SMC lines in Columbus and abundant capacity; SMC provides shorter quote‑to‑cash in construction and other markets, supporting faster revenue conversion .
Domestic reshoring advantage: Company is “well positioned” with U.S./Mexico footprint to bring back heavy/low‑pack‑density parts previously sourced from China, targeting reshoring opportunities .
New verticals traction: Turf protection mats in production; medical (hospital bed structures) progressing, with molded‑in features enabling better cost/performance vs sheet metal .
Press upgrades: Closed‑loop control/valving upgrades to boost press speeds and throughput on older presses .
M&A market: Active process; multiples observed at ~6–7x for targets considered; near‑term deal slipped to PE buyer .
Tariff mechanics: Surcharges with line‑item detail to pass through any non‑U.S. raw material tariff costs to customers; processes and POs prepared in advance .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 results missed S&P Global consensus on both revenue and EPS: revenue $61.45M vs $68.46M (1 estimate) and diluted EPS $0.25 vs $0.33 (1 estimate), reflecting weaker truck/powersports demand and later tooling acceptances in H1 . Consensus values from S&P Global.
With coverage extremely thin (single estimate), we expect models to reflect: (i) lower H1 revenue trajectory; (ii) H2 shift in tooling; (iii) maintained full‑year margin range (17–19%); and (iv) incremental SMC revenue contribution from Q2 onward .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Margin durability is the core story: despite a 21% revenue decline, gross margin rose to 19.2% and adjusted EBITDA margin to 11.7%, validating the variable‑cost model and mix discipline .
Near-term top-line caution: H1 revenue guide cut to down 10–15% on tooling timing and truck softness; full-year revenue guide withdrawn, increasing near-term uncertainty .
H2 setup improving: Tooling revenue acceptance is shifting into H2 with program launches, positioning the business for sequential acceleration into late 2025/2026 alongside potential truck pre‑buy .
SMC as a growth lever: Proprietary SMC sales ($10M of Q1 wins) offer faster conversion and margin stability; ~$5M incremental 2025 revenue expected from Q2 .
Capital deployment flexibility: $94.5M liquidity, low leverage (term debt/TTM Adj. EBITDA 0.65x), and ongoing buybacks create optionality alongside an active M&A pipeline .
Execution quality: 99.3% on‑time delivery and <100 ppm quality metrics signal operational strength and customer stickiness through the cycle .
Watchlist for catalysts: H2 tooling/launch cadence, incremental SMC material wins, evidence of truck demand stabilization/pre‑buy, and any M&A announcement to accelerate end‑market diversification .

Source Documents

Q1 2025 8‑K earnings press release (includes financial statements, reconciliations, liquidity, and market mix) .
Q1 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) .
Q4 2024 8‑K and call for sequential comps and prior guidance context .
Q3 2024 8‑K and call for two‑quarter trend context .
Q1 2025 results call timing PR (administrative) .

Footnote: Consensus values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

CORE MOLDING TECHNOLOGIES INC (CMT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary